基于Pearson Ⅳ分布的VaR与CVaR估计

基于GARCH模型,用Pearson Ⅳ分布拟合标准残差,给出一种更为精确的VaR和CVaR计算方法.重点研究在Norm-GARCH、t-GARCH与GED-GARCH模型下,用原分布和Pearson Ⅳ分布计算VaR的比较,结果表明,用Pearson Ⅳ分布计算VaR都能得到比原分布更小的失败率,且在三种模型之下用Pearson Ⅳ分布计算VaR结果很接近,都能通过检验,所以选择最简单的Norm-GARCH模型就可以;基于此,研究在Norm-GARCH模型下,用正态分布和Pearson Ⅳ分布计算CVaR,并与VaR进行比较,结果表明,用Pearson Ⅳ分布计算VaR和CVaR的失败率都远远小于由正态分布所得到的失败率,特别在VaR估计失效的交易日里,用Pearson Ⅳ分布得到的CVaR均值与实际损失均值非常接近.因此,Pearson Ⅳ分布能很好地刻画金融数据的特征,相对其他分布而言是一个很好的选择.     

Simulating dependent discrete data

This article describes a method for simulating n-dimensional multivariate non-normal data, with emphasis on count-valued data. Dependence is characterized by either Pearson correlations or Spearman correlations. The simulation is accomplished by simulating a vector of correlated standard normal variates. The elements of this vector are then transformed to achieve the target marginal distributions. We prove that the method corresponds to simulating data from a multivariate Gaussian copula. The simulation method does not restrict pairwise dependence beyond the limits imposed by the marginal distributions and can achieve any Pearson or Spearman correlation within those limits. Two examples are included. In the first example, marginal means, variances, Pearson correlations, and Spearman correlations are estimated from the epileptic seizure data set of Diggle et al. [P. Diggle, P. Heagerty, K.Y. Liang, and S. Zeger, Analysis of Longitudinal Data, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2002]. Data with these means and variances are simulated to first achieve the estimated Pearson correlations and then achieve the estimated Spearman correlations. The second example is of a hypothetical time series of Poisson counts with seasonal mean ranging between 1 and 9 and an autoregressive(1) dependence structure.     

Bootstrap goodness-of-fit test for the beta-binomial model

A common question in the analysis of binary data is how to deal with overdispersion. One widely advocated sampling distribution for overdispersed binary data is the beta-binomial model. For example, this distribution is often used to model litter effects in toxicological experiments. Testing the null hypothesis of a beta-binomial distribution against all other distributions is difficult, however, when the litter sizes vary greatly. Herein, we propose a test statistic based on combining Pearson statistics from individual litter sizes, and estimate the p-value using bootstrap techniques. A Monte Carlo study confirms the accuracy and power of the test against a beta-binomial distribution contaminated with a few outliers. The method is applied to data from environmental toxicity studies.     

The Pearson Diffusions: A Class of Statistically Tractable Diffusion Processes

Abstract.  The Pearson diffusions form a flexible class of diffusions defined by having linear drift and quadratic squared diffusion coefficient. It is demonstrated that for this class explicit statistical inference is feasible. A complete model classification is presented for the ergodic Pearson diffusions. The class of stationary distributions equals the full Pearson system of distributions. Well-known instances are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and the square root (CIR) processes. Also diffusions with heavy-tailed and skew marginals are included. Explicit formulae for the conditional moments and the polynomial eigenfunctions are derived. Explicit optimal martingale estimating functions are found. The discussion covers GMM, quasi-likelihood, non-linear weighted least squares estimation and likelihood inference too. The analytical tractability is inherited by transformed Pearson diffusions, integrated Pearson diffusions, sums of Pearson diffusions and Pearson stochastic volatility models. For the non-Markov models, explicit optimal prediction-based estimating functions are found. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal.     

A CLOSED-FORM EXPRESSION FOR THE PEARSON TYPE IV DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

A closed-form expression is presented for the probability integral of the Pearson Type IV distribution, and a corresponding method of evaluation is given. This analysis addresses a long-standing gap in the theory of the Pearson system of distributions. In addition, a simple derivation is given of an expression for the normalizing constant in the Type IV integral.     

Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Cell Selection and Power

To use the Pearson chi-squared statistic to test the fit of a continuous distribution, it is necessary to partition the support of the distribution into k cells. A common practice is to partition the support into cells with equal probabilities. In that case, the power of the chi-squared test may vary substantially with the value of k. The effects of different values of k are investigated with a Monte Carlo power study of goodness-of-fit tests for distributions where location and scale parameters are estimated from the observed data. Allowing for the best choices of k, the Pearson and log-likelihood ratio chi-squared tests are shown to have similar maximum power for wide ranges of alternatives, but this can be substantially less than the power of other well-known goodness-of-fit tests.     

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.     

Some properties of the tukey g and h family of distributions

The g and h family of distributions, introduced by J.W. Tukey, is generated by a single transformation of the standard normal which allows for symmetry and heavier tails. Selected percentage points are tabulated, and a closed-form solution for the moments, when they exist, is found. A comparison is made with the Pearson system of distributions. The g and h distributions cover most of the Pearson family to an adequate approximation, when the first four moments exist, and also generate a variety of other types of distributions. Selected distributions graphically illustrate the great variety of possible shapes.     

A tool for systematically comparing the power of tests for normality

In this article, we describe a new approach to compare the power of different tests for normality. This approach provides the researcher with a practical tool for evaluating which test at their disposal is the most appropriate for their sampling problem. Using the Johnson systems of distribution, we estimate the power of a test for normality for any mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Using this characterization and an innovative graphical representation, we validate our method by comparing three well-known tests for normality: the Pearson χ² test, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and the D'Agostino–Pearson K ² test. We obtain such comparison for a broad range of skewness, kurtosis, and sample sizes. We demonstrate that the D'Agostino–Pearson test gives greater power than the others against most of the alternative distributions and at most sample sizes. We also find that the Pearson χ² test gives greater power than Kolmogorov–Smirnov against most of the alternative distributions for sample sizes between 18 and 330.     

Confidence and Likelihood*

Confidence intervals for a single parameter are spanned by quantiles of a confidence distribution, and one‐sided p‐values are cumulative confidences. Confidence distributions are thus a unifying format for representing frequentist inference for a single parameter. The confidence distribution, which depends on data, is exact (unbiased) when its cumulative distribution function evaluated at the true parameter is uniformly distributed over the unit interval. A new version of the Neyman–Pearson lemma is given, showing that the confidence distribution based on the natural statistic in exponential models with continuous data is less dispersed than all other confidence distributions, regardless of how dispersion is measured. Approximations are necessary for discrete data, and also in many models with nuisance parameters. Approximate pivots might then be useful. A pivot based on a scalar statistic determines a likelihood in the parameter of interest along with a confidence distribution. This proper likelihood is reduced of all nuisance parameters, and is appropriate for meta‐analysis and updating of information. The reduced likelihood is generally different from the confidence density. Confidence distributions and reduced likelihoods are rooted in Fisher–Neyman statistics. This frequentist methodology has many of the Bayesian attractions, and the two approaches are briefly compared. Concepts, methods and techniques of this brand of Fisher–Neyman statistics are presented. Asymptotics and bootstrapping are used to find pivots and their distributions, and hence reduced likelihoods and confidence distributions. A simple form of inverting bootstrap distributions to approximate pivots of the abc type is proposed. Our material is illustrated in a number of examples and in an application to multiple capture data for bowhead whales.     

Statistical characteristics of the surface wind speeds over Kenya

In this study attempts were made to fit several statistical distributions to the surface maximum, minimum and mean daily wind speed records at 24 Kenyan sites. The statistical distributions fitted included the 2 and 3 parameter Lognormal, Pearson type III, Log Pearson type III, the 2 and 3 parameter Weibull distributions. The various parameters for these distributions were obtained from the methods of moments and maximum likelihood. The goodness of fit of the various distributions were investigated at each of the 24 sites using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and x2 tests. The corresponding standard errors were also computed.     

On influence diagnostic in univariate elliptical linear regression models

We discuss in this paper the assessment of local influence in univariate elliptical linear regression models. This class includes all symmetric continuous distributions, such as normal, Student-t, Pearson VII, exponential power and logistic, among others. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates and on predictions by considering as influence measures the likelihood displacement and a distance based on the Pearson residual. Two examples with real data are given for illustration.     

Statistical Comparison of the Goodness of Fit Delivered by Five Families of Distributions Used in Distribution Fitting

A basic assumption in distribution fitting is that a single family of distributions may deliver useful representation to the universe of available distributions. To date, little study has been conducted to compare the relative effectiveness of these families. In this article, five families are compared by fitting them to a sample of 20 distributions, using 2 fitting objectives: minimization of the L ₂ norm and four-moment matching. Values of L ₂ norm associated with the fitted families are used as input data to test for significant differences. The Pearson family and the RMM (Response Modeling Methodology) family significantly outperforms all other families.     

The robustness of the two—sample t—test over the Pearson system

The present paper has as its objective an accurate quantification of the robustness of the two–sample t-test over an extensive practical range of distributions. The method is that of a major Monte Carlo study over the Pearson system of distributions and the details indicate that the results are quite accurate. The study was conducted over the range β ₁ =0.0(0.4)2.0 (negative and positive skewness) and β ₂ =1.4 (0.4)7.8 with equal sample sizes and for both the one-and two-tail t-tests. The significance level and power levels (for nominal values of 0.05, 0.50, and 0.95, respectively) were evaluated for each underlying distribution and for each sample size, with each probability evaluated from 100,000 generated values of the test-statistic. The results precisely quantify the degree of robustness inherent in the two-sample t-test and indicate to a user the degree of confidence one can have in this procedure over various regions of the Pearson system. The results indicate that the equal-sample size two-sample t-test is quite robust with respect to departures from normality, perhaps even more so than most people realize.     

CSISZAR DIVERGENCE FROM CONSTANT FAILURE RATE MODEL FOR GROUPED DATA

We propose a measure of divergence in failure rates of a system from the constant failure rate model for a grouped data situation. We use this measure to compare the divergences of several systems from the constant failure rate model and find the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics. Several applications are discussed to illustrate the procedure. In the context of testing the goodness-of-fit with the constant failure rate model, we conduct a simulation study which shows that this procedure compares favorably with the Pearson chi-square test and the likelihood ratio test procedures.     

Variable selection in elliptical linear mixed model

Variable selection in elliptical Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) with a shrinkage penalty function (SPF) is the main scope of this study. SPFs are applied for parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously. The smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) is one of the SPFs and it is adapted into the elliptical LMM in this study. The proposed idea is highly applicable to a variety of models which are set up with different distributions such as normal, student-t, Pearson VII, power exponential and so on. Simulation studies and real data example with one of the elliptical distributions show that if the variable selection is also a concern, it is worthwhile to carry on the variable selection and the parameter estimation simultaneously in the elliptical LMM.     

A class of maximum-entropy multivariate distributions

This paper characterizes a class of multivariate distributions that includes the multinormal and is contained in the exponential family. The wide range of possible applications of these distributions is suggested by some of hte characteristics germane to them: First, they maximize Shannon's entropy among all distributions that have finite moments of given orders. As such, they constitute a class of distributions that includes the multinormal and some likely alternatives. Second, they can exhibit several modes, and, further-more, they do so with a relatively small number of parameters (compared to mixtures of multinormals). Third, they are the stationary distributions of certain diffusion processes. Fourth, they approximate, near the multinormal, the multivariate Pearson family. And fifth, the maximum likelihood estimators of their population moments are the sample moments. Two possible methods of estimating the distributions are studied in this paper: maximum likelihood estimation, and a fast procedure that can be used to find consistent estimators of the parameters via sample moments. A FORTTAN subroutine that implements the latter method is also provided.     

The three-parameter two-piece normal family of distributions and its fitting

This note introduces a family of skew and symmetric distributions containing the normal family and indexed by three parameters with clear meanings. Another respect in which this family compares favourably with families like the Pearson family, the Bessel-Gram-Charlier family and the Johnson family is ease of maximum likelihood fitting. Fitting by the method of moments is also considered. Asymptotic distributions of maximum likelihood and moment estimators are worked out. A test of symmetry and normality is suggested.     

Comparisons of various types of normality tests

Normality tests can be classified into tests based on chi-squared, moments, empirical distribution, spacings, regression and correlation and other special tests. This paper studies and compares the power of eight selected normality tests: the Shapiro–Wilk test, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the Lilliefors test, the Cramer–von Mises test, the Anderson–Darling test, the D'Agostino–Pearson test, the Jarque–Bera test and chi-squared test. Power comparisons of these eight tests were obtained via the Monte Carlo simulation of sample data generated from alternative distributions that follow symmetric short-tailed, symmetric long-tailed and asymmetric distributions. Our simulation results show that for symmetric short-tailed distributions, D'Agostino and Shapiro–Wilk tests have better power. For symmetric long-tailed distributions, the power of Jarque–Bera and D'Agostino tests is quite comparable with the Shapiro–Wilk test. As for asymmetric distributions, the Shapiro–Wilk test is the most powerful test followed by the Anderson–Darling test.     

A semi‐Markov model for binary longitudinal responses subject to misclassification

The authors propose a two‐state continuous‐time semi‐Markov model for an unobservable alternating binary process. Another process is observed at discrete time points that may misclassify the true state of the process of interest. To estimate the model's parameters, the authors propose a minimum Pearson chi‐square type estimating approach based on approximated joint probabilities when the true process is in equilibrium. Three consecutive observations are required to have sufficient degrees of freedom to perform estimation. The methodology is demonstrated on parasitic infection data with exponential and gamma sojourn time distributions.