The participation of women in the labour force of Latin America: fertility and other factors

The level of labor force participation among Latin American women, when compared with participation rates for other countries, is the lowest in the world. Only 20% or less of women 10 years of age and older are economically active. This level did not change much between 1950 and 1970. Few women work in agriculture. The following factors are considered for their effect on labor force participation of urban women: marital status, education, income, and the structure and stage of development of the society. Married women have a low participation rate. More highly educated women are more likely to work, but there must be demand for their work services. As the economy of various countries has progressed, female participation in domestic services has decreased, in industry has remained constant between 1960 and 1970, and in social services has expanded. It is concluded that work participation for married women will only increase with the following changes: 1) improved educational opportunities for women; 2) structural change and modernization in the economy; and 3) reduced family fertility. Changes in the first 2 factors are more important than reduced fertility. Since 1960, only Chile and Costa Rica have had a 25% decline in fertility rates.     

World population trends in 1960-70

The rapid rise in world population for the 4 periods 1950-1955, 1955 -1960, 1960-1965, and 1965-1970 is mainly due to a decline in the crude death rate from 24/1000 in 1950-1955 to 16.1/1000 in 1965-1970. 1950 was a turning-point in mortality rates because for the first time public health measures became widely available in less developed regions. These less developed regions contained 63.4% of the world population in 1930, 65.5% in 1950, and 70.0% in 1970. World population increased by 22% in 1960-1970, compared to 20% in 1950-1960, which was twice as much as the 20% registered for the 20 years 1930-1950. Developed regions contributed a 14% increase between 1950-1960 and 12% between 1960-1970; in less developed regions the increases were 23% and 27% respectively. Demographic conferences have begun to neglect mortality, but this is still a vital part of total population growth. Evidence is that the mortality decline in less developed countries is beginning to level off so that previous population projections may not be reached. What decline has been seen in crude birth rates in less developed countries is largely attributable to declines in East Asia, notably in the People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, and other Chinese or Chinese culture-related populations, as well as some of the smaller Latin American countries and some small islands off Africa. Such demographic giants as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa have shown little change. In areas with high fertility there are more mothers under age 20 and more births to women over age 35 while in low-fertility areas births are concentrated in the 20-35 year groups. An interesting example is Japan which has 50% of its births to mothers 25-29 years of age. Less developed countries have a larger proportion o f the population under age 14 while developed countries which have had lower fertility for a number of years have larger numbers in the older age groups. In less developed areas the greatest burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.     

Demography of ageing

The world's elderly population, 60 years and older, reached 251.6 million by 1950, 488 million by 1990 and, according to United Nations projection estimates, it will reach 1205.3 million in 2025. These figures mean an increase of 144% between 1950 and 1990 and of 146% between 1990 and 2025. Asia accounted for the highest number of elderly persons: 49.2%, in 1990, Europe reported 19%, Africa 6.3%, and Latin America 6.5%. On the other hand, over the next 35 years, the European region figure will decrease to 12%, while other regions will show increased percentages: 58% for Asia and around 8% for Africa and Latin America. Fertility and mortality decreases in developing countries will result in the elderly population constituting 12% of the total population in the year 2025. In this same year, Latin America will have the same high proportion of elderly persons as the world will have in the year 2020. On the other hand, some of the developed regions, such as Northern America and Europe, will reach figures around 27%. Below the average value for these regions in the year 2025 will be the former Soviet Union with 20% and Oceania with 19.2%. Another way to confirm population aging is by computing the median age of a population. Thus, while in 1950 the world median age was 23.4 years, it increased up to 24.2 years in 1990, and is estimated to be 31.1 years by the year 2025. Developed regions show higher population aging than the less developed ones. In fact, in 1990, developed countries had a median age of 33.7 years and developing countries had a median age of 22 years. While the median age will be 40.7 years for developed countries in the year 2025, it will only be 29.7 years for less developed countries. Nevertheless, this relatively high median age indicates that the aging process has already started in less developed countries.     

Does Europe need immigrants? Population and work force projections

European countries defined as all Northern and Western Europe including the former East Germany had a population of 498.4 million in 1990. In 1990 Western Europe had 374.4 million people. The European Community (EC) makes u 92% of the total population. Projections forecast a peak of the EC population (excluding the former East Germany) in 2005 at 334.2 million compared with 327 million in 1989, then declining to 332.5 million in 2010, 329.0 million min 2015 and 324.5 million in 2020. In Europe outside the East, the 20-24 year old work force entrance age group will drop from 29,860,000 in 1990 to 26,400,000 in 1005 and 23,480,000 in 2000: decreasing by 6,380,000 or 21.3%. Fertility rose by 22% in Sweden between 1985 and 1990, the rise of negligible in France and Belgium, but 2% in the UK and Switzerland, 4% in the Netherlands, 13% in Norway, 16% in Denmark, and even 6% in Germany and Luxembourg. The Ec labor force was 145 million in 1990 (excluding East Germany); it is projected to peak at 146.9 million in 2000, decline slowly until 2010 and decline faster up to 2025 with the steepest decline occurring in Germany and Italy. Unemployment rates would change from the 1990 estimate of 15.7 million to 15.5 million in 1995. Net migration into the 12 EC countries was on average -4,800 from 1965 to 1969; 357,000 from 1970 to 1974; 164,400 from 1980 to 1984; and 533,000/year from 1985 to 1989 as a result of the rise of asylum applicants and migration of ethnic Germans into Germany. Increased immigration is not needed to satisfy work force shortages for the next 10-20 years in Western Europe or in the EC. Other issues addressed are the economic activity forecast, the hidden labor supply, skill shortages, Eastern Europe, and teenage shortage. High-level manpower movements, immigration of asylum seekers, and illegal immigration will continue, but in the long run the conditions of employment and welfare support have to be improved for the women of Europe.     

Family life cycle and labour force behaviour of married women

A sociologist analyzed 1984 data on 18-49 year old Canadian women married to their 1st husband to examine the effect of certain variables on the probability that they work at 3 different stages of the family life cycle. The older the woman the less likely she would be working at each state. Age was most significant at stage 1 (married with no children) (p.05) and less significant at stage 3 (married with 1 or more children and expected no more) (p.1). Neither age nor marriage age determined wife's labor force participation at stage 2 (married with 1 or more children and expected more). Marriage age was positively related to labor force participation at stage 1 (p.1). At all stages, the more education a woman had the more likely she worked. This effect was significant at stage 3 (p.1). Place of birth had a significant negative effect on employment at stage 3 (p.05). Canadian-born women with children had a tendency not to work or not seek work (stages 2 and 3), but those with no children either worked or were seeking work. The age of the youngest child had no significant effect on labor force participation. The more children a woman in stage 3 had the more likely she did not work (p.1), but those in stage 2 were more likely to work even though the number of children did not strongly influence labor force participation. Husband's income had a small effect on labor force participation of wives at all stages, but it was significant at stages 1 and 3 (p.1). Husbands were more likely to have a favorable attitude toward employment of wives at stages 1 and 3, but it was only significant at stage 3 (p.05). Women at stage 2 preferred to combine work, often part time, and motherhood. This study suggests that labor force participation of mothers will most likely continue to grow.     

Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.     

Evaluating a basic-needs strategy and population policies: the BACHUE approach

The BACHUE model, a dynamic simulation technique developed within the International Labour Organization's World Employment Program, has been applied to the Philippines. The model simulates behavior and consequences in a number of key areas: fertility, marriage, migration, savings and expenditure, and labor force participation for households and a macro-model for demand, ouput, employment, and income. The design and development of the model are discussed in detail. The model was run for a series of 13 experiments ranging from nationlization of modern sectors, increasing self-employment, movement toward labor-intensive techniques, changes in growth rates of various sectors, and a reduction in fertility by 2% over 1976-1985, an increase over the 1% assumed in the base run. Runs R-2 to R-11 all showed that a change in basic needs is associated with significant declines in fertility, largely because of increasing education and decreasing mortality. Better economic conditions in rural areas also reduced migration. R-13 which examined the effects of a family planning program of moderate size on ultimate fertility, showed that even by year 2000 the effects were small. The population is reduced 5% over the run which assumes negative income tax and government subsidies to poor families but the gain in income per adult is less than 4%. Any real improvement in income as the result of family planning will take 40-50 years to achieve. Economic incentives, on the other hand, have much faster demographic results. The models also show that rural-urban migration is responsive to policy changes. Planners are cautioned that the model is not a picture of the entire range of human behavior but is an adjunct for use in analyzing interaction between policies.     

The effect of non-traditional attitudes on married women's labor supply

This paper uses repeated cross sections from the General Social Survey to test whether married women's labor force participation responds to how traditional her attitudes are concerning a woman's role. Such attitudes are important predictors of labor force participation in any given year. On the other hand, attitude variables do not explain the increase in women's labor force participation during the 1970's.     

Demographic behavior: controlled fertility

The current status of fertility and its control in France is reviewed. Consideration is given to changes in contraceptive usage, nuptiality, educational status and fertility, birth timing and spacing, and female labor force participation. The author notes that fertility has not declined significantly since the mid-1970s. Fertility differentials by geographical region and occupation are also considered.     

Potential labor force supply and replacement in Mexico and the states of the Mexican Cession and Texas: 1980-2000

"The purpose of this article is to carry forward the examination of potential labor force supply and replacement of men in Mexico into the 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 decades so that the possible future course of international migration between that country and the United States may be better anticipated. In addition, to provide a degree of developmental perspective, trends in potential labor force supply and replacement in Mexico since 1930-40 are presented." As a contrast, "ratios of potential labor force supply and replacement in the southwestern United States--the states of the Mexican Cession and Texas, which were formerly part of Mexico--also are shown for the 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 intervals." The results suggest that "in Mexico, the projected number of males entering the labor force ages will be about 48 percent larger in the 1980s than in the 1970s.... Fertility declined significantly in Mexico in the 1970s, and therefore the number of new entrants to the labor force ages in the 1990s will decline...." The implications for international migration between Mexico and the United States are considered.     

Structural changes in the receiving country and future labor migration--the case of Kuwait

This article describes changes in the volume, age and sex composition, retention, productivity, types of occupation, and economic sector of the labor force in Kuwait. The focus is on the structural changes in the indigenous labor force. Data were obtained from censuses and labor force surveys during 1965-93. Policies after the 1990 invasion pertained primarily to security of public employment sector among natives. Over 98% of private sector employment is among non-Kuwaitis. Government programs support high fertility. Female illiteracy has declined, and the proportion of women with a higher education has increased. Natives comprised 20.4% of the total labor force in 1993. About 90% of native males work in the public sector. 45% of total male employment is in the production sector. Around 50% of non-Kuwaiti males have been employed in production work over the decades. Over 90% of Kuwaiti females in 1993 worked in professional or clerical work. Over 50% of total female labor force participation is in the service sector. Concentration in the public sector increased for Kuwaitis and declined for non-Kuwaitis. Labor force participation declined with increasing age. Retirement benefits encouraged early retirement. The private sector is experiencing the departure of long-term migrants and more rapid turnover of labor. Hours of work are longer in the private sector. Kuwait is still dependent on foreign workers in the production and service industries. It is likely that native male workers will replace foreign workers in professional work and administrative/clerical work. Policies that will assure future reliance on imported labor include the assurance of government jobs for Kuwaitis, retirement rules, and the profitability of the trade in labor.     

Female Labor Force Participation in Urban and Rural China1

Abstract The objective of this study is to examine female labor force participation and its determinants in rural and urban China. The sociological literature has demonstrated that participation tends to increase in urban and industrialized places where women have higher levels of education and fewer children, where more workers are engaged in service pursuits, and where family structure is less traditional. With the use of data on counties and cities (N = 2,377) from the I-percent sample of the 1982 census of the People's Republic of China, it was found that female labor force participation is likely to rise in areas with increased agricultural employment, educational levels, proportion of female-headed households, and higher male-to-female sex ratios. Both the size of the service sector and the fertility rate had negligible effects on female labor force participation. Although, on average, rural places have slightly higher levels of female labor force participation, when other variables are controlled, urban places have a higher rate of female participation. In addition, the findings suggest that market factors (i.e., education) are more likely to determine the rate of female labor force participation in urban areas; whereas demographic and social factors (i.e., sex ratio and household structure) play a more important role in explaining the female labor force participation in rural counties.     

Labor market outcomes of immigrant women in the United States: 1970 to 1990

42% of immigrant workers in the US are women. Data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 US censuses are analyzed in the study of differences in labor market outcomes between US-born and immigrant women, and among immigrant women born in different countries or regions of the world. There was little difference between US-born and immigrant women as a whole in 1970. However, over the next 20 years, immigrants women's labor force participation rate and weekly earnings relative to natives became lower, and their unemployment rates became higher. By 1990, the wage gap was 14%. At the same time, the share of self-employed women and the amount of time worked among employed women were almost the same for immigrant women and the US-born throughout the period 1970-90. Immigrants born in the UK, Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, the Philippines, and the Middle East have had steady or improved wages and unemployment relative to US-born women. Immigrants from Mexico and Central America have experienced relatively high unemployment and low earnings, with the wage gap reaching 35% in 1990. Disparities in the number of completed years of schooling explains a substantial share of the observed differences in labor market outcomes.     

Labor Supply of Older Men: Does Social Security Matter?

This article presents evidence of a negative and significant relationship between the level of Social Security wealth and the labor force participation of older men. The empirical analysis utilizes a panel data set containing participation, wage, and Social Security information for cohorts defined by birth year and educational attainment from 1967 to 1996. Increases in Social Security wealth levels are found capable of explaining most of the observed decline in labor force participation rates of older men since 1967.     

Social and Economic Structural Antecedents of Fertility*

Social and economic structural characteristics of counties are used to predict differences in county fertility rates using 1970 census data for North Carolina's one hundred counties. We argue that fertility rates are affected by county social and economic structures, and hypothesize that fertility rates vary directly with level of occupational sex segregation and inversely with degree of urbanization, industrialization, population size, and female labor force participation rates of counties. Variables reflecting general sociodemographic characteristics of counties are also included in the analysis. Using multiple linear regression and factor analytic techniques, a preliminary model of social and economic structural antecedents of fertility is constructed. Three factors, which collectively account for 69 percent of the variance in fertility rates, are indicative of the importance of social and economic structural conditions in accounting for variation in local fertility.     

TOWARD A SYNTHESIS OF FEMINIST AND DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVES ON FERTILITY

In explaining fertility and reproduction and emerging patterns of childbearing, both demographers and feminists have centered their thinking on women's status (economic and social), women's changing roles and life experiences (increased labor force participation, increased availability of reproductive options, declining marriage rates in many parts of the industrialized world, and the centrality of women to development), and women as agents in micro- and macrolevel changes in family, fertility, and economic change. Although demography has recently begun to integrate feminist perspectives into fertility explanations, there is not yet a synthesis of feminist theoretical insights with demographic questions. Drawing from recent thinking on global and national political and policy challenges in the less and more developed worlds, to the epistemological shifts in knowledge of reproduction/mothering, to changes in the technologies of reproduction, this article moves toward an integration of feminist and demographic perspectives on fertility.
…far from the economic dependence of women working in the interests of motherhood, it is the steadily acting cause of a pathological maternity and a declining birthrate.
Charlotte Perkins Stetson, Women and Economics , 1899     

Trends in gender stratification, 1970–1985

This paper addresses causes and consequences of sociological interest in gender stratification after 1970. The most recent women's movement spurred empirical research on the topic but development of a general theory was slowed by accidents of disciplinary history. A theory of preindustrial gender stratification that leans on anthropology is therefore used to interpret trends that occur during industrialization. This analysis helps to explain why trends in mortality, education, fertility, women's labor force participation, and men's household participation should continue to improve women's status relative to the status of men.     

Labor force participation and fertility: a social analysis of their antecedents and simultaneity.

The nature of the relationship between labor force participation and fertility is examined for 172 families residing in the Chicago metropolitan area. The sample represents a marriage cohort. The data was collected during the 6th year of marriage (1978). The average age of the wife was 27, that of the husband 29. About 15% of the sample was black, the rest white. The median years of schooling completed was 13 for the wife and 14 for the husband. Median family income (less wife's earnings) was US$15,000; approximately 96% of the husbands and 53% of the wives were employed. The hypothesis is that family decisions are socially constructed through husband and wife interactions wherein individual needs and desires of the spouses are resolved by means of give-and-take and mutual influence. Economic factors, societal forces, group pressures and physiological concerns are presumed to work through the psychological characteristics of the spouses and the social interactions transpiring between them. The is, the exogenous determinants are assumed to constitute the setting or context for individual and social decision making. They either enter as inputs to joint decision making or else shape the needs, desires, or other psychological reactions of spouse prior to decision making. In this study, the specific phenomena to be explained are wife's labor force participation and family size. Also tested is the effect of psychological investment in these 2 issues and the impact of the role relationship between the spouses. The hypotheses are scrutinized at 2 levels of analysis: the individual spouses and the husband-wife dyad. Comparisons are made among social psychological models, wherein either the husband of wife provides information as they perceive their relationship and a sociological model wherein group constructs are formed with the husband and wife acting as informants on the pattern of norms guiding their relation. A A strutural equation methodology is employed to better model measurement error and errors in equations imultaneously. The results show that labor force participation of wife and fertility do not appear to be causally related. Rather, social forces within the family function as common antecedents, thereby producing a spurious observed bivariate association. This implies that labor force participation and fertility decision entail joint decision making and influence. Another implication is that the decision process seems to be neither atomistic nor necessarily sequential. The present study also differs from previous efforts in the methodology employed. Variables were operationalized in concert with sociological theory--social variables were used to explain social outcomes.     

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the provision of social insurance benefits continued to increase monotonically. Possible palliative measures would be to change present employment practices or to upgrade the quality of the labor force through vocational training programs for older workers.     

Recent developments in the employment and retirement of older workers in Germany

Against a background of an aging population, rising social security costs, and foreseeable labor and skill shortages, there have been public policy changes affecting older workers in Germany. Labor-market related initiatives aim at an increase of labor force participation among this group. Enterprise-related, active age-management strategies aim at improving occupational conditions of aging workers. In this context, prolonging the working life must be seen as one option of "active aging." Another view of the current retirement discussion is the question of how the unused potential of Germany's younger, early-retired seniors can be exploited. Active aging has become a social duty nowadays, with the intention that older persons contribute to society to avoid generational conflicts. In the future, active aging will preserve the competitiveness of enterprises and of the entire economy, despite an aging labor force. But gerontological research points out that different options to carry out individual life plans of active aging are also required. This article reviews the changes in public policies towards older workers and includes the findings of a project that illustrates good practice to combat age barriers in the labor world.