Correlates and Predictors of Lottery Play in the United Kingdom

Previous studies of lottery play have tended to adopt one particular approach, concentrating on demographic, personality, cognitive, or social aspects of play. Using the recently introduced United Kingdom National Lottery, this study investigated variables associated with all of these approaches within an overall integrative framework. In a community sample (N = 160), Lottery play was positively correlated with friends' Lottery play, Instants Lottery play, frequency of other gambling, and misunderstanding of Lottery probability, and negatively correlated with level of education. In a regression analysis, friends' Lottery play, Instants Lottery play, and education level were significant unique predictors of Lottery play, and a combination of these and other variables accounted for 38% of the variance in playing behavior. The results are discussed predominantly in terms of the nature of lotteries as a social activity.     

A Test of the Social Cognitive Model of Lottery Gambling in Thailand

This paper reviews lottery gambling research using Bandura's (1986) social cognitive model framework. It also describes a partial test of the model among lottery gamblers in Thailand. The study hypothesised that lottery gambling is related to income levels and that respondents high in cognitive bias, money consciousness and hope, and those whose family members also played lottery would bet more frequently and more money on lotteries and chase particular numbers. Nine hundred and fifty lottery gamblers participated in the study. Log linear modelling was used to analyse the data. The resulting models found cognitive bias, frequency and amount spent on lottery purchases in a three-way relationship. Levels of income, money consciousness, hope and family members' lottery play were related to the frequency and independently to amounts spent on lottery purchases. Cognitive bias, money consciousness, hope and family members' lottery play were related to chasing of particular lottery numbers. The results of the study confirm the validity of applying social cognitive models to lottery gambling and suggest that lottery gamblers be informed of their small chance of winning on lotteries.     

The Determinants of Lottery Sales in Portugal

In sum, this paper examines the core determinants of lottery sales in Portugal. With panel data analysis covering 18 Portuguese districts and 5 years, this study explains the variations in a district’s per-capita lottery sales in terms of key theoretical hypotheses such as per capita district income, age, education index, gender and religion. This paper concludes that the richer Portuguese districts spend more than the poorer districts and there is an inverted-U relationship between lottery sales and per capita income. The paper also concludes that married Catholic citizens spend more on lottery products than others and that the level of education returns a negative effect on lottery spending.     

The Effect of Recessions on Gambling Expenditures

This article examines the influence of the business cycle on expenditures of three major types of legalized gambling activities: Casino gambling, lottery, and pari-mutuel wagering. Empirical results are obtained using monthly aggregated US per capita consumption time series for the period 1959.01–2010.08. Among the three gambling activities only lottery consumption appears to be recession-proof. This series is characterized by a vast and solid growth that exceeds the growth in income and the growth in other gambling sectors. Casino gambling expenditures show a positive growth during expansions and no growth during recessions. Hence, the loss in income during recessions affects casino gambling. However, income shocks which are not directly related to the business cycle do not influence casino gambling expenditures. Pari-mutuel wagering displays an overall negative trend and its average growth rate is smaller than the growth in income, especially during recessions. The findings of this article provide important implications for the gambling industry and for local governments.     

Lottery Playing Amongst Youth: Implications for Prevention and Social Policy

Factors associated with lottery ticket purchases, accessibility of lottery products, and lottery playing behaviour amongst 1,072 youth (ages 10-18 years old, mean age 14 years-old) was examined. Playing the lottery was found to be the most popular gambling activity with youth reporting playing all forms of lottery tickets including draws, scratch tickets, and sports lottery tickets. Youth reported beginning to play the lottery at age 12, with scratch ticket participation being amongst the most highly reported type of lottery activity with the youngest age of onset. The vast majority of youth are aware of the legal age to purchase tickets although many believed that there should be no age requirement to purchase any form of lottery ticket. Youth, regardless of their age, reported few if any difficulties in purchasing lottery tickets. Moreover, a third of underage youth reported going to the store specifically to purchase lottery tickets with this behaviour increasing with the age of the participant. This research confirms previous findings that lottery tickets are highly accessible to underage youth despite legal prohibitions. The results provide valuable information that can be subsequently used in the development of responsible social policy and youth gambling prevention programs     

Household gambling expenditures and the Irish recession

This article examines the determinants of household gambling expenditures in Ireland and the effects of the recession on these expenditures using a large micro data-set, the Irish Household Budget Survey (HBS). Two gambling expenditures are examined, bookmaker tote betting and spending on the national lottery. Households with an older and a less educated head of household participate in and spend more on both forms of gambling while the presence of children in the households tends to reduce participation and spending in gambling. There is also evidence to suggest that households with an unemployed head of household have a higher likelihood of participation in gambling. The recession has affected the two forms of gambling in different ways. Lottery expenditures appear resilient to the effects of the recession. This is demonstrated in the estimated expenditure elasticities in particular. Bookmaker/tote expenditures have changed from a necessity to a luxury good, while lottery expenditures have increased in their necessity status. This can be explained by the fact that playing the lottery requires less time, knowledge and risk and has potentially greater benefits attached to it in comparison to bookmaker/tote betting. During a recession these factors become much more prevalent.     

Lottery expenditure in a non-lottery state

One of the major arguments for legalization of lotteries in new jurisdictions in the United States has been the fact that neighboring states, with their own lotteries, have captured lottery purchases from the other jurisdiction's citizens. This paper explores the issue by examining lottery purchase patterns in the state of Indiana prior to the start-up of the Indiana lottery, at a time when three adjacent states offered a variety of lottery product. Tobit analysis is also done on survey data to determine important contributing factors to the decision to play the lottery, as well as individual lottery expenditures. The paper concludes that, even though lottery revenues for a state are regressive, legalization might be justified on the basis of reducing the regressive outflow of revenue to bordering lottery states.My colleague, David Good, provided many helpful insights in this work and Irene Wirkus assisted with data management.     

The Cognitive Psychology of Lottery Gambling: A Theoretical Review

Despite the current popularity of the UK National, psychologists have tended to neglect lottery play. This review provides a summary of current research findings and outlines the main cognitive theories of gambling as related to non-pathological lottery play. A discussion of various biases and irrational thinking patterns typically found in lottery gambling will be given. These will include the misunderstanding of lottery odds, a susceptibility to the gambler's fallacy and cognitive entrapment, a belief in hot and cold numbers, unrealistic optimism, a belief in personal luck, superstitious thinking, the illusion of control, the erroneous perception of near misses, a susceptibility to prize size and rollover effects, the framing of gambling outcomes and finally, the influence of social factors on lottery play. It is concluded that the psychology of lottery play needs a more unified theory which whilst largely cognitive in emphasis, should also incorporate social motivations such as those inherent in syndicate based lottery play.     

A Profile of Lottery Players in Guangzhou,China

This research reports results from a survey of 1,101 lottery ticket buyers in Guangzhou, China. We found that the majority of lottery ticket buyers were young and middle-aged males with above-average-income and an education of high school/professional school or higher. Their buying behaviour usually continued for many years once they began to play. The amount of each purchase was moderate. Most reported spending less than 10% of their monthly income on the lottery each month. The majority claimed to buy lottery tickets purely for entertainment purpose while the second largest group bought lottery tickets in order to win money. The lottery business has provided more choices for meeting people's entertainment needs, and has great potential for further development. However, there were a relatively high percentage of buyers who bought lottery tickets beyond the level that was probably affordable given their income. This group should be paid special attention in order to avoid negative effects of the lottery.     

Sociodemographic Correlates and Morbidity in Lottery Gamblers: Results from a Population Survey

The aim of the current study was to examine the socio-demographic correlates, the association of mental and physical illness, and the prevalence of pathological gambling among three groups (1) those with lottery gambling only (2) those with lottery and other types of gambling and (3) those with other types of gambling only—such as playing cards, sports betting, horse racing, casino gambling etc. Data was used from a nationwide cross-sectional epidemiological nationally representative survey of the resident (Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents) population in Singapore of 6616 Singaporean adults aged 18 years and older. All respondents were administered the South Oaks Gambling Screen to screen for pathological gambling. The diagnoses of mental disorders were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and relevant socio-demographic data was collected using a structured questionnaire. Lottery gambling was by far the most popular form of gambling in Singapore, with 83.5 % of those who had ever gambled indicating that they had participated in lottery gambling. Those who participated in lottery gambling alone were more likely to belong to the older age group (as compared to the 18–35 years age group), be of Indian ethnicity, have a secondary or vocational education, and earn a lower income as compared to the other two groups. Our findings that those with pure lottery gambling were significantly less likely to be pathological gamblers and had significantly lower odds of psychiatric and physical morbidity as compared to the other two groups are unique and need further research.     

The Money–Happiness Relationship in Transition Countries: Evidence from Albania

With an empirical analysis on a panel of individuals living in a transition country (Albania) we document that the impact of money on happiness does not depend only on the pecuniary outcome but also on aspirations and conditions leading to its determination. Additional factors which matter are the self perceived economic status and the share earned from remittances (and, more weakly, from social assistance). By looking at different sides of the phenomenon we find that these factors affect levels, changes in income and the probability of being “frustrated achievers”. Finally, unlike what happens in developed countries, higher income levels are negatively and not positively correlated with the probability of frustrated achievement thereby supporting the hypothesis that individuals in transition countries are not in the upper side of a concave happiness-income relationship.     

Social capital and leaving the nest: Channels and housing tenures

Young adults in Europe sometimes have trouble moving away from their parents and obtaining a home of their own, which is considered an important step in the transition to adulthood. This paper investigates whether nest-leaving is affected by individual social capital and parental economic capital. The paper also examines how these resources are related to the type of housing tenure obtained and whether the housing was acquired through informal channels. In addition, the paper assesses whether differences in access and returns to social capital can explain the later nest-leaving of the children of immigrants. The study uses a Swedish two-wave panel survey of young adults aged between 19 and 22. Individual social capital is operationalized as an extensive social network measured with the position generator, while parental economic capital is estimated with registered disposable income. The results show that individual social capital is positively related to prospective nest-leaving, but parental income is not. Nevertheless, both individual social capital and parental economic capital are related to the obtained housing tenure type: social capital is linked to informal ‘second-hand’ rental agreements often acquired through contacts, whereas having high-income parents is linked to obtaining owned housing tenure. The children of immigrants are found to be more likely to live with their parents, but this is not explained by lower access or return to social capital.     

Strategic behaviour and a notion of ex ante efficiency in a voting model

A person is said to prefer in the stochastic dominance sense one lottery-over-outcomes over another lottery-over-outcomes if the probability of his (at least) first choice being selected in the first lottery is greater than or equal to the analogous probability in the second lottery, the probability of his at least second choice being selected in the first lottery is greater than or equal to the analogous probability in the second lottery, and so on, with at least one strict inequality. This (partial) preference relation is used to define straightforwardness of a social choice function that maps profiles of ordinal preferences into lotteries over outcomes. Given a prior probability distribution on profiles this partial preference ordering (taking into account the additional randomness) is used to induce a partial preference ordering over social choice functions for each individual. These are used in turn to define ex ante Pareto undominated (efficient) social choice functions. The main result is that it is impossible for a social choice function to be both ex ante efficient and straightforward. We also extend the result to cardinal preferences and expected utility evaluations.This work was supported by Grant #SOC 77-27403 and #SES 80-26086 from the National Science Foundation. It has been prepared at the University of Illinois and the University of Pennsylvania. We want to thank Steve Matthews and an anonymous referee for helpful comments     

Hitting the jackpot: the influence of monetary payout on gambling behaviour

Restrictions on monetary payout may promote player engagement in gambling as a form of entertainment rather than as a source of income. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of monetary prize magnitude upon gambling behaviour in a community sample, and the degree to which this association is moderated by gambling risk factors. One hundred and eighty-seven adults completed an online survey assessing motivation, impulsivity and affect. Participants were given a series of vignettes and asked to estimate how much they would gamble to win monetary prizes of increasing amounts with and without accrued gambling debt. Participants reported increased gambling in response to increased monetary payout. Debt moderated these outcomes, such that electronic gaming machine (EGM) and lottery expenditures and number of lottery games played decreased with increased debt; this effect was most pronounced at elevated monetary prizes. The association between duration of EGM play and monetary payout was moderated by gender only. Results suggest that self-reported gambling behaviours increased with monetary payout even across qualitatively different gambling products, and across gamblers with different motivations for gambling, levels of impulsivity, and negative affect. The restriction of monetary payouts warrants further research attention as a form of problem gambling prevention.     

DO POSITIONAL CONCERNS DESTROY SOCIAL CAPITAL: EVIDENCE FROM 26 COUNTRIES

Research on the effects of positional concerns on individuals' attitudes and behavior is sorely lacking. To address this deficiency, we use the International Social Survey Programme 1998 data on 25,000 individuals from 26 countries to investigate the impact of relative income position on three facets of social capital: horizontal and vertical trust as well as norm compliance. Testing relative deprivation theory, we identify a deleterious positional income effect for persons below the reference income, particularly for their social trust and confidence in secular institutions. Also often a social capital‐lowering effect of relative income advantage occurs, while a rise in absolute income almost always contributes positively. These results indicate that a rise in income inequality in a society too large is rather detrimental to the formation of social capital. (JEL Z130, I300, D310)     

Life stress, anger and anxiety, and delinquency: an empirical test of general strain theory

General strain theory (Agnew 1992) departs from traditional strain theories by emphasizing the role of the individual's affective responses to negative life experiences in fostering deviant behavior. In this analysis, we examine the central hypotheses of general strain theory using data from a three-wave panel study of high school youths in the Boston metropolitan area (N = 939). Covariance structure models reveal that anger and hostility in response to negative life events do play a causal role in fostering more aggressive forms of delinquency, but are not significantly related to either nonaggressive delinquency or marijuana use. Furthermore, the conditional effects predicted by general strain theory, in which the impact of strain on delinquency varies by youths' personal and social resources, are inconsistent. Discussion centers on the prospect of increasing the utility of general strain theory by further imbuing it with concepts and perspectives from the sociology of mental illness.     

THE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTABILITY OF LOTTERY NUMBER

The article first briefly review the origin and development of the lottery, sums up the previous literature, think the lottery is random lottery and is predictable; Then, through the analysis of the mechanics of the SSC of the ratio of betting amount to award setting and the winning probability, combined with the trend and probability theory, this paper proposes a lottery number prediction method; Finally, as for the proposed prediction method with practice, using the method of historical data test and practical test, the effectiveness of the methods made records and statistics, prove the feasibility of lottery prediction and the prediction method is effective.     

Strengthening home and community-based care through Medicaid waivers

States are increasingly using the Medicaid 1915c waiver program to provide community-based long-term care (LTC). We examined state predictors of waiver utilization and expenditures for waivers serving both older and working-age individuals. State level data for the period 1992 to 2001 were used to estimate random effects panel models. States with increased community-based care (e.g., home health agencies) and decreased nursing home bed capacity were positively associated with state per capita rates of use, expenditures, and the share of Medicaid LTC dollars supporting 1915c waivers. States appeared to substitute Medicare for Medicaid services for individuals eligible for both. State per capita income was positively related to each measure. State policies that facilitate decreased institutional and increased community- based capacity appear essential to state efforts to expand access to community-based services. Federal policies that address state resource issues may also spur growth in community-based LTC, which, in most states, continues to be limited.     

A panel data analysis of the impact of trade on human development

Arguments for a positive link between trade and per-capita income are often met with the counterargument that “there is more to life than income”—the implication being that trade improves income, but degrades “quality of life.” In this paper, we attempt to address this counterargument by examining the impact of trade on countries’ social developments as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI)—a composite measure of education, literacy, and income published by the United Nations Development Programme. Utilizing a generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure in a panel data framework, we find that increases in trade are positively associated with future increases in social welfare.     

Risk attitudes and risky behavior

In economic theory, risk aversion is a characteristic of the typical utility function of money. Observations of how people deal with risks in real life have cast some doubts on the prevalence of risk aversion. People buy insurance, but they also gamble and take investment risks. Many of the conclusions in the discussions of utility derive from experiments employing some kind of lottery choices. While the experiments have given interesting ideas for theory, there has been little testing of the extent to which the obtained measures of risk attitudes correlate with actual behavior. Data from the VSB panel were used to answer three questions: (1) Can hypothetical risky choice questions be meaningfully answered by ordinary survey respondents? (2) What are the relationships between different measures of risk attitudes and actual portfolio choices of risky assets? (3) What is the relationship between risk attitude and playing in lotteries, lotto, etc.?