Comparing point and interval estimates in the bivariate <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis>-copula model with application to financial data

The paper considers joint maximum likelihood (ML) and semiparametric (SP) estimation of copula parameters in a bivariate t-copula. Analytical expressions for the asymptotic covariance matrix involving integrals over special functions are derived, which can be evaluated numerically. These direct evaluations of the Fisher information matrix are compared to Hessian evaluations based on numerical differentiation in a simulation study showing a satisfactory performance of the computationally less demanding Hessian evaluations. Individual asymptotic confidence intervals for the t-copula parameters and the corresponding tail dependence coefficient are derived. For two financial datasets these confidence intervals are calculated using both direct evaluation of the Fisher information and numerical evaluation of the Hessian matrix. These confidence intervals are compared to parametric and nonparametric BCA bootstrap intervals based on ML and SP estimation, respectively, showing a preference for asymptotic confidence intervals based on numerical Hessian evaluations.     

Objective Bayesian Analysis of Skew‐t Distributions

Abstract. We study the Jeffreys prior and its properties for the shape parameter of univariate skew‐t distributions with linear and nonlinear Student's t skewing functions. In both cases, we show that the resulting priors for the shape parameter are symmetric around zero and proper. Moreover, we propose a Student's t approximation of the Jeffreys prior that makes an objective Bayesian analysis easy to perform. We carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study that demonstrates an overall better behaviour of the maximum a posteriori estimator compared with the maximum likelihood estimator. We also compare the frequentist coverage of the credible intervals based on the Jeffreys prior and its approximation and show that they are similar. We further discuss location‐scale models under scale mixtures of skew‐normal distributions and show some conditions for the existence of the posterior distribution and its moments. Finally, we present three numerical examples to illustrate the implications of our results on inference for skew‐t distributions.     

Inference of R = P[X < Y] for skew normal distribution

This article studies the estimation of R = P[X < Y] when X and Y are two independent skew normal distribution with different parameters. When the scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is proposed. The maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are obtained when the common scale parameter is known. In the general case, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is also discussed. To compare the different proposed methods, Monte Carlo simulations are performed. At last, the analysis of a real dataset has been presented for illustrative purposes too.     

Two-way ANOVA when the distribution of the error terms is skew t

In this article, we assume that the distribution of the error terms is skew t in two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Skew t distribution is very flexible for modeling the symmetric and the skew datasets, since it reduces to the well-known normal, skew normal, and Student's t distributions. We obtain the estimators of the model parameters by using the maximum likelihood (ML) and the modified maximum likelihood (MML) methodologies. We also propose new test statistics based on these estimators for testing the equality of the treatment and the block means and also the interaction effect. The efficiencies of the ML and the MML estimators and the power values of the test statistics based on them are compared with the corresponding normal theory results via Monte Carlo simulation study. Simulation results show that the proposed methodologies are more preferable. We also show that the test statistics based on the ML estimators are more powerful than the test statistics based on the MML estimators as expected. However, power values of the test statistics based on the MML estimators are very close to the corresponding test statistics based on the ML estimators. At the end of the study, a real life example is given to show the implementation of the proposed methodologies.     

α-stable laws for noncoding regions in DNA sequences

In this work, we analyze the long-range dependence parameter for a nucleotide sequence in several different transformations. The long-range dependence parameter is estimated by the approximated maximum likelihood method, by a novel estimator based on the spectral envelope theory, by a regression method based on the periodogram function, and also by the detrended fluctuation analysis method. We study the length distribution of coding and noncoding regions for all Homo sapiens chromosomes available from the European Bioinformatics Institute. The parameter of the tail rate decay is estimated by the Hill estimator ?α. We show that the tail rate decay is greater than 2 for coding regions, while for almost all noncoding regions it is less than 2.     

Non‐Gaussian geostatistical modeling using (skew) t processes

We propose a new model for regression and dependence analysis when addressing spatial data with possibly heavy tails and an asymmetric marginal distribution. We first propose a stationary process with t marginals obtained through scale mixing of a Gaussian process with an inverse square root process with Gamma marginals. We then generalize this construction by considering a skew‐Gaussian process, thus obtaining a process with skew‐t marginal distributions. For the proposed (skew) t process, we study the second‐order and geometrical properties and in the t case, we provide analytic expressions for the bivariate distribution. In an extensive simulation study, we investigate the use of the weighted pairwise likelihood as a method of estimation for the t process. Moreover we compare the performance of the optimal linear predictor of the t process versus the optimal Gaussian predictor. Finally, the effectiveness of our methodology is illustrated by analyzing a georeferenced dataset on maximum temperatures in Australia.     

Maximum likelihood inference for mixtures of skew Student-t-normal distributions through practical EM-type algorithms

This paper deals with the problem of maximum likelihood estimation for a mixture of skew Student-t-normal distributions, which is a novel model-based tool for clustering heterogeneous (multiple groups) data in the presence of skewed and heavy-tailed outcomes. We present two analytically simple EM-type algorithms for iteratively computing the maximum likelihood estimates. The observed information matrix is derived for obtaining the asymptotic standard errors of parameter estimates. A small simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the skew Student-t-normal distribution compared to the skew t distribution. The proposed methodology is particularly useful for analyzing multimodal asymmetric data as produced by major biotechnological platforms like flow cytometry. We provide such an application with the help of an illustrative example.     

On the estimation of serial correlation in Markov-dependent production processes

In this paper, we present a study about the estimation of the serial correlation for Markov chain models which is used often in the quality control of autocorrelated processes. Two estimators, non-parametric and multinomial, for the correlation coefficient are discussed. They are compared with the maximum likelihood estimator [U.N. Bhat and R. Lal, Attribute control charts for Markov dependent production process, IIE Trans. 22 (2) (1990), pp. 181–188.] by using some theoretical facts and the Monte Carlo simulation under several scenarios that consider large and small correlations as well a range of fractions (p) of non-conforming items. The theoretical results show that for any value of p≠0.5 and processes with autocorrelation higher than 0.5, the multinomial is more precise than maximum likelihood. However, the maximum likelihood is better when the autocorrelation is smaller than 0.5. The estimators are similar for p=0.5. Considering the average of all simulated scenarios, the multinomial estimator presented lower mean error values and higher precision, being, therefore, an alternative to estimate the serial correlation. The performance of the non-parametric estimator was reasonable only for correlation higher than 0.5, with some improvement for p=0.5.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of skew-t copulas with its applications to stock returns

The multivariate Student-t copula family is used in statistical finance and other areas when there is tail dependence in the data. It often is a good-fitting copula but can be improved on when there is tail asymmetry. Multivariate skew-t copula families can be considered when there is tail dependence and tail asymmetry, and we show how a fast numerical implementation for maximum likelihood estimation is possible. For the copula implicit in a multivariate skew-t distribution, the fast implementation makes use of (i) monotone interpolation of the univariate marginal quantile function and (ii) a re-parametrization of the correlation matrix. Our numerical approach is tested with simulated data with data-driven parameters. A real data example involves the daily returns of three stock indices: the Nikkei225, S&P500 and DAX. With both unfiltered returns and GARCH/EGARCH filtered returns, we compare the fits of the Azzalini–Capitanio skew-t, generalized hyperbolic skew-t, Student-t, skew-Normal and Normal copulas.     

Robust mixture modeling using the skew <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis> distribution

A finite mixture model using the Student's t distribution has been recognized as a robust extension of normal mixtures. Recently, a mixture of skew normal distributions has been found to be effective in the treatment of heterogeneous data involving asymmetric behaviors across subclasses. In this article, we propose a robust mixture framework based on the skew t distribution to efficiently deal with heavy-tailedness, extra skewness and multimodality in a wide range of settings. Statistical mixture modeling based on normal, Student's t and skew normal distributions can be viewed as special cases of the skew t mixture model. We present analytically simple EM-type algorithms for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real data example.     

Extreme value index estimator using maximum likelihood and moment estimation

ABSTRACT

When a distribution function is in the max domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution, its tail can be well approximated by a generalized Pareto distribution. Based on this fact we use a moment estimation idea to propose an adapted maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index, which can be understood as a combination of the maximum likelihood estimation and moment estimation. Under certain regularity conditions, we derive the asymptotic normality of the new estimator and investigate its finite sample behavior by comparing with several classical or competitive estimators. A simulation study shows that the new estimator is competitive with other estimators in view of average bias, average MSE, and coefficient of variance of the new device for the optimal selection of the threshold.     

ASYMPTOTIC LIKELIHOOD APPROXIMATIONS USING A PARTIAL LAPLACE APPROXIMATION

Elimination of a nuisance variable is often non‐trivial and may involve the evaluation of an intractable integral. One approach to evaluate these integrals is to use the Laplace approximation. This paper concentrates on a new approximation, called the partial Laplace approximation, that is useful when the integrand can be partitioned into two multiplicative disjoint functions. The technique is applied to the linear mixed model and shows that the approximate likelihood obtained can be partitioned to provide a conditional likelihood for the location parameters and a marginal likelihood for the scale parameters equivalent to restricted maximum likelihood (REML). Similarly, the partial Laplace approximation is applied to the t‐distribution to obtain an approximate REML for the scale parameter. A simulation study reveals that, in comparison to maximum likelihood, the scale parameter estimates of the t‐distribution obtained from the approximate REML show reduced bias.     

The generalized Gudermannian distribution: inference and volatility modelling

In this paper, we introduce a new distribution, called generalized Gudermannian (GG) distribution, and its skew extension for GARCH models in modelling daily Value-at-Risk (VaR). Basic structural properties of the proposed distribution are obtained including probability density and cumulative distribution functions, moments, and stochastic representation. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate unknown parameters of the proposed model and finite sample performance of maximum likelihood estimates are evaluated by means of Monte-Carlo simulation study. The real data application on Nikkei 225 index is given to demonstrate the performance of GARCH model specified under skew extension of GG innovation distribution against normal, Student's-t, skew normal and generalized error and skew generalized error distributions in terms of the accuracy of VaR forecasts. The empirical results show that the GARCH model with GG innovation distribution produces the most accurate VaR forecasts for all confidence levels.     

Testing Goodness of Fit for Parametric Families of Copulas—Application to Financial Data

ABSTRACT

This article suggests a chi-square test of fit for parametric families of bivariate copulas. The marginal distribution functions are assumed to be unknown and are estimated by their empirical counterparts. Therefore, the standard asymptotic theory of the test is not applicable, but we derive a rule for the determination of the appropriate degrees of freedom in the asymptotic chi-square distribution. The behavior of the test under H ₀ and for selected alternatives is investigated by Monte Carlo simulation. The test is applied to investigate the dependence structure of daily German asset returns. It turns out that the Gauss copula is inappropriate to describe the dependencies in the data. A t _ν-copula with low degrees of freedom performs better.     

Constrained monotone EM algorithms for mixtures of multivariate <Emphasis Type="Italic">t</Emphasis> distributions

Mixtures of multivariate t distributions provide a robust parametric extension to the fitting of data with respect to normal mixtures. In presence of some noise component, potential outliers or data with longer-than-normal tails, one way to broaden the model can be provided by considering t distributions. In this framework, the degrees of freedom can act as a robustness parameter, tuning the heaviness of the tails, and downweighting the effect of the outliers on the parameters estimation. The aim of this paper is to extend to mixtures of multivariate elliptical distributions some theoretical results about the likelihood maximization on constrained parameter spaces. Further, a constrained monotone algorithm implementing maximum likelihood mixture decomposition of multivariate t distributions is proposed, to achieve improved convergence capabilities and robustness. Monte Carlo numerical simulations and a real data study illustrate the better performance of the algorithm, comparing it to earlier proposals.     

Variable Selection in Joint Location and Scale Models of the Skew-t-Normal Distribution

Variable selection is an important issue in all regression analysis, and in this article, we investigate the simultaneous variable selection in joint location and scale models of the skew-t-normal distribution when the dataset under consideration involves heavy tail and asymmetric outcomes. We propose a unified penalized likelihood method which can simultaneously select significant variables in the location and scale models. Furthermore, the proposed variable selection method can simultaneously perform parameter estimation and variable selection in the location and scale models. With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters, we establish the consistency and the oracle property of the regularized estimators. These estimators are compared by simulation studies.     

A note on bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates for the scalar skew t distribution

The skew t distribution is a flexible parametric family to fit data, because it includes parameters that let us regulate skewness and kurtosis. A problem with this distribution is that, for moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the shape parameter is infinite with positive probability. In order to try to solve this problem, Sartori (2006) has proposed using a modified score function as an estimating equation for the shape parameter. In this note we prove that the resulting modified maximum likelihood estimator is always finite, considering the degrees of freedom as known and greater than or equal to 2.     

Tail dependence for skew Laplace distribution and skew Cauchy distribution

ABSTRACT

Coefficient of tail dependence measures the strength of dependence in the tail of a bivariate distribution and it has been found useful in the risk management. In this paper, we derive the upper tail dependence coefficient for a random vector following the skew Laplace distribution and the skew Cauchy distribution, respectively. The result shows that skew Laplace distribution is asymptotically independent in upper tail, however, skew Cauchy distribution has asymptotic upper tail dependence.     

A comparison of bayes and maximum likelihood estimation of the intraclass correlation coefficient

Two methods of estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient (p) for the one-way random effects model were compared in several simulation experiments using balanced and unbalanced designs. Estimates based on a Bayes approach and a maximum likelihood approach were compared on the basis of their biases (differences between estimates and true values of p) and mean square errors (mean square errors of estimates of p) in each of the simulation experiments. The Bayes approach used the median of a conditional posterior density as its estimator.