Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local Projections

Abstract

We propose and study properties of an estimator of the forecast error variance decomposition in the local projections framework. We find for empirically relevant sample sizes that, after being bias-corrected with bootstrap, our estimator performs well in simulations. We also illustrate the workings of our estimator empirically for monetary policy and productivity shocks. KEYWORDS: Forecast error variance decomposition; Local projections.     

A note on the bias and consistency of the jackknife variance estimator in stratified samples

Using the ANOVA decomposition, we obtain an explicit formula for the bias of the jackknife variance estimator in stratified samples drawn without replacement. For a wide class of asymptotically linear statistics, we show the consistency of the jackknife variance estimator and establish the asymptotic normality of their Studentized versions.     

Shrinkage and Orthogonal Decomposition

ABSTRACT. The problem of estimating the mean of a multivariate normal distribution when the parameter space allows an orthogonal decomposition is discussed. Risk functions and lower bounds for a class of shrinkage estimators that includes Stein's estimator are derived, and an improvement on Stein's estimator that takes advantage of the orthogonal decomposition is introduced. Uniform asymptotics related to Pinsker's minimax risk is derived and we give conditions for attaining the lower risk bound. Special cases including regression and analysis of variance are discussed.     

A revised Cholesky decomposition to combat multicollinearity in multiple regression models

As known, the ordinary least-squares estimator (OLSE) is unbiased and also, has the minimum variance among all the linear unbiased estimators. However, under multicollinearity the estimator is generally unstable and poor in the sense that variance of the regression coefficients may be inflated and absolute values of the estimates may be too large. There are several classes of biased estimators in statistical literature to decrease the effect of multicollinearity in the design matrix. Here, based on the Cholesky decomposition, we propose such an estimator which makes the data to be slightly distorted. The exact risk expressions as well as the biases are derived for the proposed estimator. Also, some results demonstrating superiority of the suggested estimator over OLSE are obtained. Finally, a Monté-Carlo simulation study and a real data application related to acetylene data are presented to support our theoretical discussions.     

The exact distribution and density functions of the stein-type estimator for normal variance

In this paper, we derive the exact distribution and density functions of the Stein-type estimator for the normal variance. It is shown by numerical evaluation that the density function of the Stein-type estimator is unimodal and concentrates around the mode more than that of the usual estimator.     

On Bayesian estimators in multistage binomial designs

A new class of Bayesian estimators for a proportion in multistage binomial designs is considered. Priors belong to the beta-J distribution family, which is derived from the Fisher information associated with the design. The transposition of the beta parameters of the Haldane and the uniform priors in fixed binomial experiments into the beta-J distribution yields bias-corrected versions of these priors in multistage designs. We show that the estimator of the posterior mean based on the corrected Haldane prior and the estimator of the posterior mode based on the corrected uniform prior have good frequentist properties. An easy-to-use approximation of the estimator of the posterior mode is provided. The new Bayesian estimators are compared to Whitehead's and the uniformly minimum variance estimators through several multistage designs. Last, the bias of the estimator of the posterior mode is derived for a particular case.     

The effects of the proxy information on the iterative Stein-rule estimator of the disturbance variance

In a regression model with proxy variables, we consider the iterative estimator of the disturbance variance to obtain more precise estimates. In the formula of the estimator of the disturbance variance, the estimator is obtained by using Stein-rule (SR) estimator instead of OLS (ordinary least squares) estimator is called Iterative estimator of the disturbance variance. It is shown that, in a regression model with proxy variables the mean square error (MSE) of the iterative estimator of the disturbance variance is greater than the MSE of the disturbance variance related to the OLS estimator under certain conditions.     

Comments on the paper “Bias-adjustment and calibration of jackknife variance estimator in the presence of non-response”

Singh and Arnab (2010) presented a bias adjustment to the jackknife variance estimator of Rao and Sitter (1995) in the presence of non-response. In their paper, they obtained a second-order approximation of the bias of the Rao-Sitter variance estimator and then proposed a bias-adjusted estimator based on this approximation. To compare their proposed variance estimator to various other variance estimators, they performed a simulation study and showed that their variance estimator is superior to the Rao-Sitter variance estimator. In fact they showed that the Rao-Sitter variance estimator suffers from severe underestimation. These results contradict those in the literature, which indicate that the Rao-Sitter variance estimator suffers from a positive bias if the sampling fractions are not negligible; see Rao and Sitter (1995), Lee et al. (1995) and Haziza and Picard (2011). Because of this contradiction, we felt that a further investigation was warranted. In this paper, we attempt to recreate the results of Singh and Arnab (2010) and, in fact, show that their second order approximation to the bias of the Rao-Sitter variance estimator is incorrect and that their simulation results are also questionable.     

Half-sample variance estimation

This paper studies an alternative to the jackknife variance estimator, the half-sample variance estimator. Both theoretical and Monte Carlo comparisons between the half-sample variance estimator and the jackknife variance estimator indicate that the former is better in some situations.     

Second-order variance estimation in poststratified two-stage sampling

The linearization or Taylor series variance estimator and jackknife linearization variance estimator are popular for poststratified point estimators. In this note we propose a simple second-order linearization variance estimator for the poststratified estimator of the population total in two-stage sampling, using the second-order Taylor series expansion. We investigate the properties of the proposed variance estimator and its modified version and their empirical performance through some simulation studies in comparison to the standard and jackknife linearization variance estimators. Simulation studies are carried out on both artificially generated data and real data.     

Difference-based variance estimator for nonparametric regression in complex surveys

A difference-based variance estimator is proposed for nonparametric regression in complex surveys. By using a combined inference framework, the estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal and to converge to the true variance at a parametric rate. Simulation studies show that the proposed variance estimator works well for complex survey data and also reveals some finite sample properties of the estimator.     

Adaptive estimators for parameters of the autoregression function of a Markov chain

Suppose we observe an ergodic Markov chain on the real line, with a parametric model for the autoregression function, i.e. the conditional mean of the transition distribution. If one specifies, in addition, a parametric model for the conditional variance, one can define a simple estimator for the parameter, the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator. It is robust against misspecification of the conditional variance, but not efficient. We construct an estimator which is adaptive in the sense that it is efficient if the conditional variance is misspecified, and asymptotically as good as the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator if the conditional variance is correctly specified. The adaptive estimator is a weighted nonlinear least-squares estimator, with weights given by predictors for the conditional variance.     

Risk performance of a pre-test estimator for normal variance with the Stein-variance estimator under the LINEX loss function

In this paper, we derive the exact formula of the risk function of a pre-test estimator for normal variance with the Stein-variance (PTSV) estimator when the asymmetric LINEX loss function is used. Fixing the critical value of the pre-test to unity which is a suggested critical value in some sense, we examine numerically the risk performance of the PTSV estimator based on the risk function derived. Our numerical results show that although the PTSV estimator does not dominate the usual variance estimator when under-estimation is more severe than over-estimation, the PTSV estimator dominates the usual variance estimator when over-estimation is more severe. It is also shown that the dominance of the PTSV estimator over the original Stein-variance estimator is robust to the extension from the quadratic loss function to the LINEX loss function.     

Inadmissibility of the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the inverse gaussian variance

The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of the variance of the inverse Gaussian distribution is shown to be inadmissible in terms of the mean squared error, and a dominating estimator is given. A dominating estimator to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the variance and estimators dominating the MLE's and the UMVUE's of other parameters are also given.     

Simple heterogeneity variance estimation for meta-analysis

Summary.  A simple method of estimating the heterogeneity variance in a random-effects model for meta-analysis is proposed. The estimator that is presented is simple and easy to calculate and has improved bias compared with the most common estimator used in random-effects meta-analysis, particularly when the heterogeneity variance is moderate to large. In addition, it always yields a non-negative estimate of the heterogeneity variance, unlike some existing estimators. We find that random-effects inference about the overall effect based on this heterogeneity variance estimator is more reliable than inference using the common estimator, in terms of coverage probability for an interval estimate.     

Variance estimation of DEE and regression estimator when a first-phase cluster sample is restratified

We consider a variance estimation when a stratified single stage cluster sample is selected in the first phase and a stratified simple random element sample is selected in the second phase. We propose explicit formulas of (asymptotically), we propose explicit formulas of (asymptotically) unbiased variance estimators for the double expansion estimator and regression estimator. We perform a small simulation study to investigate the performance of the proposed variance estimators. In our simulation study, the proposed variance estimator showed better or comparable performance to the Jackknife variance estimator. We also extend the results to a two-phase sampling design in which a stratified pps with replacement cluster sample is selected in the first phase.     

New generalized regression estimator in the presence of non response under unequal probability sampling

In this paper, we propose a new generalized regression estimator for the problem of estimating the population total using unequal probability sampling without replacement. A modified automated linearization approach is applied in order to transform the proposed estimator to estimate variance of population total. The variance and estimated value of the variance of the proposed estimator is investigated under a reverse framework assuming that the sampling fraction is negligible and there are equal response probabilities for all units. We prove that the proposed estimator is an asymptotically unbiased estimator and that it does not require a known or estimated response probability to function.     

Estimation of reliability for a multicomponent survival stress-strength model based on exponential distributions

Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) of reliability in stress-strength model (known stress) is obtained for a multicomponent survival model based on exponential distributions for parallel system. The variance of this estimator is compared with Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRB) for the variance of unbiased estimator of reliability, and the mean square error (MSE) of maximum likelihood estimator of reliability in case of two component system.     

A minimum variance kernel estimator and a discrete frequency polygon estimator for ordinal contingency tables

This paper introduces two estimators, a boundary corrected minimum variance kernel estimator based on a uniform kernel and a discrete frequency polygon estimator, for the cell probabilities of ordinal contingency tables. Simulation results show that the minimum variance boundary kernel estimator has a smaller average sum of squared error than the existing boundary kernel estimators. The discrete frequency polygon estimator is simple and easy to interpret, and it is competitive with the minimum variance boundary kernel estimator. It is proved that both estimators have an optimal rate of convergence in terms of mean sum of squared error, The estimators are also defined for high-dimensional tables.     

Risk behavior of a pre-test estimator for normal variance with the Stein-type estimator

In this paper, we examine the risk behavior of a pre-test estimator for normal variance with the Stein-type estimator. The one-sided pre-test is conducted for the null hypothesis that the population variance is equal to a specific value, and the Stein-type estimator is used if the null hypothesis is rejected. A sufficient condition for the pre-test estimator to dominate the Stein-type estimator is shown.