全要素生产率新的测算和分解方法

文章详细梳理了几种以往TFP研究方法的研究思路及其优缺点,在此基础上提出新的测算和分解TFP的Hicks-Moorsteen TFP指数方法,并对其推导及分解过程进行了介绍.以西部地区为例,应用此方法实证测算和分解了西部地区2000～2010年间的TFP变化.     

湖南省工业能源使用效率的统计测度与评价

文章在介绍并对比几种指数分解模型优劣的基础上,选择LMDI分解模型对2001～2006年湖南省工业部门能源效率进行分解分析,分解部门结构和部门能源强度等因素对能源消费变动的影响效果,得出相应的影响效果指数,并通过计算工业各部门能源强度指标分析主要部门节能贡献.     

多因素多阶影响分析模式及其应用

广泛应用的传统多因素影响分析模式或结构分解分析(SDA)模型实际上是不科学的,既不是真实的客观事实描述,也没有决策参考价值,模型选择具有过强的主观性.文章对此进行了批评分析,并提出了新的多因素多阶影响分析模式.该模式把一个因变量的总变化以差分形式分解为多阶变化,严格遵循了变量变化的自然分解形式.应用新模式对于我国人均粮食产量变化的因素影响分析结果显示了其重要应用价值.     

基于投入要素生产效率变化的Malmquist指数分解方法

Fare R等提出的Malmquist指数将全要素生产率变化分解为技术效率变化指数和技术进步指数,而技术效率变化指数又可分解为纯技术效率指数和规模效率指数,但是这种分解并不能从投入要素的角度来寻找全要素生产率增长或降低的根源.文章提出了一种将全要素生产率变化分解为固定投入生产力变化与可变投入生产率变化的方法.特别地,如果只有资本和劳动两种投入要素,该方法可以将全要素生产率变化分解为资本投入生产力变化和劳动投入生产力变化,以实现各种投入要素对全要素生产率贡献能够单独测量的目的.     

居民消费价格指数的时间序列分解预测法

居民消费价格指数是反映通货膨胀程度的重要指标,也是宏观经济分析和决策,价格总水平监控以及宏观经济核算的重要指标.文章采用时间序列分解的方法,预测居民消费价格指数的变动.该方法在预测的同时还能对时间序列进行分解分析,得到居民消费价格指数的基本走势信息.     

二氧化碳排放的IO-SDA模型及其实证研究

本文在现有的中国投入产出表的基础上编制了其可比价格的“碳排”投入产出表,运用IO-SDA模型(投入产出结构分解模型),对我国各部门二氧化碳排放总量进行了分解研究.首先设计二氧化碳排放的IO-SDA模型,提出一个基本分析框架;然后分解分析二氧化碳排放总量,研究影响这一指标的主要因素;对各部门的二氧化碳完全排放强度进行分解分析,利用已经得到的各年的二氧化碳排放系数矩阵、能耗结构矩阵、直接能耗强度对角矩阵和列昂惕夫逆矩阵,采用结构分解方法研究各部门完全二氧化碳排放强度;最后根据研究结论提出调整能源供给结构、调整产业结构、促进生产技术创新、实现最终产品低碳化等政策建议.     

基尼系数的分解:收入增长能否降低收入不平等

本文首先将基尼系数的变化分解为收入增长效应和家庭排序变化效应,再分别将居民按城乡分组、居民家庭收入按来源构成进行分解,构建了基尼系数变化的三层分解模型.在此模型的基础上,采用2006-2011年中国健康调查数据(CHNS)讨论了各项收入增长对城镇、农村、城乡间及整体收入不平等的影响,并给出了一些政策建议.     

基于分解的库兹涅兹指数的中国地区间行业收入差距问题研究

当我们研究行业收入差距问题时,均通过构建一个指数来综合测度一国或一地区的行业收入差距,比如基尼系数、变异系数等,但指数方法缺乏对各个行业的深入考察.文章对库兹涅兹指数("库指数")进行了分解,分解后的"库指数"有效的解决了收入差距测度指数不能分解的问题.基于分解的"库指数",进一步讨论了中国各地区行业收入差距的特征,并通过因子分析的方法找出造成行业收入差距扩大的主要行业.     

基于EMD方法的股票价格预测与实证研究

文章将经验模式分解方法(EMD)引入到中国金融市场数据预测中,利用EMD正交分解的特殊功能,提出了一种较为准确的金融市场时间序列预测其走势的方法.并与传统实践上相对比较成熟的小波分析方法(WA)进行对比分析,实证研究表明:经验模式分解方法(EMD)较小波分析方法拟和精度更高、预测功能很强.此方法为金融市场数据研究提供了一个强有力新的分析工具,在理论和实践上有其重要的指导意义.     

汽车零件成本预测模型研究

成本是决定产品竞争能力的一个重要因素,成本预测是目标成本管理的一个关键环节.本文是在我国某汽车制造公司成本分解实践的基础上,运用统计分析的方法,对汽车驾驶室成本分解时相关零部件成本预测模型的研究,是一种成本管理经验的介绍和方法探讨.     

城镇劳动力市场上的性别工资差异问题研究

经济转型以来，中国城镇劳动力市场上女性工资与男性工资存在很大差距。文章利用Brown分解方法对中国城镇职工的性别工资差距进行了分解。分解结果显示，职业内工资差异与职业间工资差异分别为19．8％和18．4％，即存在比较严重的纵向和横向性别职业隔离。此外，受教育程度、工作年限等人力资本水平对男女工资差异有显著的影响，职业性别歧视也是导致城镇劳动力市场上男女工资差异的主要原因。     

Monitoring contemporary student flows and characteristics: secondary analyses using the Labour Force Survey and the General Household Survey

This paper examines trends in the participation in higher education by disadvantaged social groups over the recent period of higher education expansion and reform. It has been suggested that disadvantaged groups can recoup by participation at mature ages and this question is examined. The data sources used are the Labour Force Survey (1986–1995), which yielded 13384 students (6747 men and 6637 women) and the General Household Survey (1984–1992) which yielded 1936 students (982 men and 954 women). From a perspective of equal opportunities, the relative participation of young people from manual and non-manual origins does not appear to have changed over the period considered, but there is some evidence of increased relative participation by people from manual class origins as mature students. Mature students from such origins were older than those from non-manual class origins, as were mature women than mature men, with consequences for employability. From a perspective of lifelong learning, the recent expansion has been successful, with more entrants from the unemployed. Considerable percentages of women also enter from full-time housework, and increasing percentages from manual work. However, as in the past, many entrants had been successful in becoming employed before entry, some being seconded by employers. Despite these changes, the greatest absolute take-up has been from middle class youth. Early employment outcomes were examined and suggest some discrimination against mature students. It is possible that the increased cost of higher education, in the context of an expanded labour market of graduates, may deter some mature students.     

样本选择参数分位回归模型及其在工资分布分解中的应用

在工资差距分解问题中,研究者经常会遇到样本选择偏差问题,直接忽略会导致最终估计结果产生严重偏差,同时在众多工资差距分解方法中,相比于均值分解,分布分解方法更受研究者青睐。针对参数分位回归,本文首次提出可加形式与非可加形式的样本选择参数分位回归（SSPQR）模型,并基于这两类样本选择参数分位回归模型给出修正样本选择偏差后的参数分位回归工资差距分布分解方法。运用上述方法及已有的工资分布分解方法,借助CHNS2015年度城镇数据,本文研究了我国城镇男女工资差距及差距分解问题,得出以下结论：①男女工资差距主要来源是性别歧视问题;②经过样本选择偏差修正后,实际的工资差距更大,歧视问题更严重;③男女工资差距程度在不同分位点上结果不同,换句话说,我们不能简单地仅从平均水平来判断工资差距程度;④与其他已有方法计算结果比较发现,SSPQR计算的工资差距程度更大。     

Using success to measure quality in British higher education: which subjects attract the best-qualified students?

Summary. A theory is developed to measure the quality of applicants into UK higher education. It is based on the principle that more able applicants will self-select into more difficult subject choices. The advantage is that it gives a unidimensional measure whereby different groups can easily be compared across any dimension of interest, e.g. men, women and the various ethnic groups. Here the relative quality of applicants and acceptances across 170 separate subject groups is calculated and discussed by using a data set with over 2 million observations. It, therefore, offers a way of achieving a more refined measure of the quality of human capital.     

“做实做小”个人账户对个人养老金水平的影响

 本文引入养老保险金记账利率和工资增长率，测算了在不同初始缴费工资和缴费年限条件下实施“做实做小”个人账户政策对参保人养老金水平的影响。通过分析得出：1.政策调整后，养老金给付结构较调整前更能体现缴费积累与养老金水平的内在经济联系； 2.政策调整后个人养老金水平普遍不如政策调整前的水平，政策调整后养老金水平高于政策调整前均出现在缴费年限较长以及初始缴费工资较高的情况下；3.政策调整对不同的参保人影响不同。政策调整加大了低初始缴费工资人群的生活压力；拉大了男、女职工退休养老金的差距，不利于当前社会男女平等和贫富分化问题的解决。     

Gender wage inequalities in Switzerland: the public versus the private sector

Wage differences between women and men can be divided into an explained part and an unexplained part. The former encompasses differences in the observable characteristics of the members of groups, such as age, education or work experience. The latter includes the part of the difference that is not attributable to objective factors and represents an estimation of the discrimination level. We discuss the original method of Blinder (J Hum Resour 8(4):436–455, 1973) and Oaxaca (Int Econ Rev 14(3):693–709, 1973), the reweighting technique of DiNardo et al. (Econometrica 64(5):1001–1044, 1996) and our approach based on calibration. Using a Swiss dataset from 2012, we compare the estimated explained and unexplained parts of the difference in average wages in the private and public sectors obtained with the three methods. We show that for the private sector, all three methods yield similar results. For the public sector, the reweighting technique estimates a lower value of the unexplained part than the other two methods. The calibration approach and the reweighting technique allow us to estimate the explained and unexplained parts of the wage differences at points other than the mean. By using this, in this paper, the assumption that wages are more equitable in the public sector is analysed. Wage differences at different quantiles in both sectors are examined. We show that in the public sector, discrimination occurs quite uniformly both in lower and in higher-paying jobs. On the other hand, in the private sector, discrimination is greater in lower-paying jobs than in higher-paying jobs.queryPlease check and confirm the given name and family name is correctly identified for the first author and amend if necessary.     

高等教育入学机会城乡差异研究——基于二元选择O-B分解方法

以CGSS数据为研究对象,通过二元选择O-B分解可以将二元选择概率分解为特征效应与系数效应的优势,对中国高等教育入学机会城乡差异的影响因素进行了定量分析,揭示中国居民高等教育入学选择行为的内在影响机制.实证结果表明:第一,高等教育入学选择行为同时受到个人能力和家庭背景两个方面因素的影响,二者不可偏废;第二,高等教育入学机会城乡差异显著,并且这一差异随时代发展呈现扩大趋势;第三,高等教育入学机会城乡差异主要由特征差异引起,不过系数效应(歧视)也占据了相当重要的位置,后者更应当受到关注.     

Pathways between education and health: a causal modelling approach

Summary.  The association of poor education and poor health has been consistently observed in many studies and in various countries. Thus far, studies examining the mechanisms underlying this association have looked at only a limited set of potential pathways. This study simultaneously examines six distinctive pathways, which have been hypothesized to link education and health and found support from previous studies. A causal analysis of education and health was performed using structural equation models. Data were used from six phases of the National Child Development Study, which is based on following up an initial sample of 17416 children who were born in 1958. The association between education and health appears to be explained by a combination of mechanisms: adolescent health and adult health behaviours for men and women, adult social class among men and parental social class among women. We conclude that improvements in population educational attainment may not automatically lead to improvements in population health, and that health policies for improving health and reducing health inequalities need to target specific causal pathways.     

Is there a role for statisticians in pay equity?

After analyzing the salary structures of over 20 organizations in the process of implementing the requirements of the Pay Equity Act of the Province of Ontario, I found that one apparently invariant characteristic was the uniqueness of each salary structure — even among organizations with similar organizational structures. In almost every analysis, diagnostics suggested features of the gender gap that were not captured in the initial regression model. In studying a salary structure for the purposes of pay equity, the statistician is expected to help produce gender-neutral measures of the value of jobs and to estimate the shape and size of the gap between salaries of women and men for work of comparable value. We are expected to provide an “objective and unbiased” component to a very complex process fraught with subjectivity and bias. When we analyze real salary data with modern statistical tools, we generally find more questions than answers, yet we are expected to recommend some form of partial remedy for gender inequity within the legislated framework for pay equity plans. One (unsatisfying) solution to the dilemma would be to leave this type of work to analysts whose techniques don't confront them with the inadequacy of their models. This paper describes some experiences and observations gleaned from the analysis of real pay data for pay equity. It provides some answers, but they are, admittedly, much less compelling than the questions.     

工资收入差异的解释：基于分位数回归的经验研究

利用CHNS2006年的数据,通过分位数回归方法从教育回报率、性别和工作部门的差异三个方面对中国工资收入差异进行研究,得出与以往研究不同的结论。结果表明：教育回报率在工资收入分布上的变动趋势是不定的。在工资收入分布的两端,大专以上学历对工资收入差距的影响相对较大。对不同性别间工资收入差异的分解表明劳动力市场上存在明显的性别歧视,而对部门间工资差异的分解表明在整个工资分布区间,这种差异呈倒＂U＂型走势。