未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅需求的影响

不同年龄阶段的消费群体具有不同的需求特征,人口因素直接影响着住宅产品的市场定位和需求结构。本文按人口年龄因素进行了住宅市场细分,分析了未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅市场需求结构的影响。     

我国家庭动态变化对二氧化碳排放的影响分析

人口数量及其增长率常常被认为是二氧化碳排放增长的重要推动力之一,而家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的影响往往被忽视。基于此,采用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数来考察人口和家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度及差异。结果表明,家庭层面变量对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。考察人口总量、平均家庭规模以及家庭户变动三者对二氧化碳排放影响的贡献差异发现,平均家庭规模对二氧化碳排放的影响大于家庭户变动对二氧化碳排放的影响,且大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。相对于人口总量,以家庭户为视角来研究人口因素对二氧化碳的影响更为重要。因此,在节能减排的政策建议中,应当更多倡导推广有利于可持续发展的家庭户模式,家庭减排对于减排目标的实现将具有更大的潜力。     

中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式量化与分析

文章采用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据量化分析年龄别居民消费模式。针对同类研究只采用年龄变量作为自变量的不足,在经典的需求和消费函数基础上扩展年龄变量构建计量模型,获得了更好的解释力和准确性。基于计量分析结果刻画了分年龄、性别的中国城乡居民消费模式,并进行城乡比较。研究发现,居民家庭消费生命周期中存在30~34岁及45~49岁两个消费高峰;城乡居民消费差距最大的是高龄老人;农村老人在高龄阶段的医疗保健消费明显下降;农村中年妇女的医疗保健支出低于男性。研究认为,应从政策层面有针对性地加大对特定年龄性别人群的扶助力度;同时,未来产业规划应充分考虑人口结构变动因素的影响。     

人口变动对气候变化的影响

人口与气候变化关系是一个非常缺乏研究的领域。本文总结近年有关人口变动对气候变化影响研究领域的状况,讨论不同研究方法和模型的应用成果及其局限性,特别介绍了应用整合评估模型iPETS对主要国家和地区温室气体排放预测结果,指出人口变动与经济发展、技术变动等都是人类影响气候变化的决定因素;人口变动的影响不只是人口规模的增减,人口和家庭户结构及其空间分布的变化也是应该考虑的内容;家庭户应该成为气候变化研究的人口分析单位;人口老化、城市化、家庭规模缩小等都是影响未来气候变化的重要人口因素。本研究提供了改进气候预测模型对人口变量处理方式的实例,指出了在制定减缓气候变化政策过程中考虑人口因素的重要性和可操作建议。     

家庭规模缩小对家庭经济保障能力的影响:苏南实例

本文通过实验设计方法 ,并利用苏南农村居民的数据资料 ,分析实证了在有收入积累的前提下 ,家庭规模缩小不仅不会弱化家庭保障能力 ,而且会强化家庭保障能力。不同规模家庭保障能力差别 ,随时间推移和在家庭生命周期的不同阶段具有波动性。家庭保障能力会因家庭规模的大小、消费和积累模式的差异和在家庭生命周期中的不同阶段而不同 ,并可能发生相互转换。     

家庭碳排放及其影响因素研究——基于家庭生命周期视角的实证分析北大核心CSSCI

伴随着全球减排行动的不断深入,中国明确提出了“碳达峰”与“碳中和”目标,国内的碳排放问题引起广泛关注。家庭碳排放成为新的碳排放增长点,有必要全方位探析家庭碳排放新趋势背后的驱动力量。文章利用2018年中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据,从家庭层面实证分析我国家庭碳排放的影响因素,引入家庭生命周期理论作为家庭异质性的依据,考察各影响因素在不同家庭生命周期的作用方向与影响程度。此外,依据家庭碳排放的划分进行渠道检验。研究结果表明家庭经济特征、家庭人口学特征与家庭户籍地域特征具有异质性影响,家庭规模与家庭年龄分别成为影响家庭碳排放最强劲的促进因素与抑制因素。在不同的家庭生命周期,各影响因素的作用差别较大,分别形成家庭构建期的“均衡型”家庭碳排放、成长期的“经济导向型”家庭碳排放及衰退期的“人口导向型”家庭碳排放,呈现出具有家庭生命周期性的碳排放足迹。同时,借助于渠道检验辨别家庭碳排放影响因素及各生命周期家庭碳排放的直接或间接渠道。因此,节能减排政策应不断适应我国人口与发展新形势,将降低家庭间接碳排放作为工作重点,提升家庭在节能减排中发挥作用的空间,针对不同类型家庭施以差异化的减排政策,构建“环境友好型”家庭。     

流动人口家庭迁居的经济决策

文章在家庭"理性人"假设的基础上构建家庭迁居的经济决策模型,对家庭的迁居决策进行实证分析。研究发现,家庭通过对迁居的货币价值进行精确衡量,在不同生命周期阶段、不同的家庭结构类型的条件下,形成不同的迁居行为。在家庭实际迁居的过程中,为了维持家庭的抚养、赡养等功能,家庭的迁居策略可能并非最优化的经济决策。流动家庭会将部分社会成本进行内部消化,以减少流动行为对传统家庭功能的削弱。     

中国人口综合因素与住宅销售价格指数的灰色关联度分析

房地产价格持续走高已经成为影响国民生活质量的重要因素,其作为经济发展中的一部分,对政府行为、百姓生活等有着重要影响。房地产分为住宅用途和商业用途两种。当前,我国已经频出重拳对住宅用途房地产进行调控,试图将其控制在合理的水平,但是调控的效果还有待评估。针对《中国统计年鉴》的住宅销售价格指数(HSPI),运用灰色关联度分析模型分析当前我国综合人口经济因素与HSPI的关联程度,从人口规模因素、人口素质因素、人口生存因素和人口抚养比因素四个维度测度综合人口经济因素与房价变动的关系。     

家庭规模、家庭类型与市场需求分析

本文在分析个人需求与家庭需求特征及其关系的基础上，论述了家庭规模、家庭类型及其变动、家庭门第类型、家庭职能及家庭成员性别角色的变化与市场需求的关系，并探讨了其市场营销意义。家庭规模与家庭类型及其变动既影响个人需求，又影响家庭需求，通过夫妇的时间配置、家庭人均可支配收入、家庭负担状况等影响家庭的购买决策行为、需求结构、需求水平、需求层次与需求商品的特征。家庭门第类型对家庭地位商品有着重要影响，家庭职能的变化导致对社会商品或劳务需求的增加，家庭成员角色的变化对家庭内部分工、家庭购买决策、家庭需求商品本身都产生重要影响。所有这些都要求厂商采取针对性的营销活动，以取得事半功倍的效果。     

广东家庭户规模与家庭生命周期变化特点

本文分析广东省家庭户的规模和结构变化 ,以及广东家庭生命周期的形成、扩展、稳定、收缩、空巢和解体等六个阶段的新特点。这些变化和特点将对广东的经济发展产生深远的影响。     

城市化过程中人口变动趋势对我国房地产开发的影响

城市化是中国经济现代化的重要标志。城市化过程中我国人口变化的趋势对城市房地产需求总量和结构产生重要影响,为房地产市场带来机遇和挑战。     

性别失衡对房价的影响 ——来自中国城市的证据

随着中国城市房屋价格持续快速上涨,其背后的深层次原因受到了全社会的广泛关注,现有关于其政策、制度以及经济属性的分析并不能对此做出完全解释。在传统房地产经济学中,住房一直被看作资产和消费品。而本文则从住房作为地位性商品属性的角度入手,讨论性别失衡条件下适婚男性通过购买住房以寻求自身社会地位的提高,进而对房价产生影响的过程与原理。文章在城市性别失衡数据缺失的情况下,依据全国人口普查结果对城市层面的适婚人口性别比做出科学的推算,将该数据与已有统计数据相匹配构建2000-2016年中国285个地级市的面板数据,再利用固定效应模型进行实证分析。研究结果显示,首先,基于地位寻求理论,性别比上升明确增强了住房需求并使之转化为中国实际房价上涨的动因之一。其次,性别失衡对房价的影响存在显著的地区性差异,在婚配市场竞争激烈、住房作为地位性商品特征更为明显的东部地区,性别失衡对抬高房价的影响更为强烈,而在西部地区,这一影响则相对较弱。此外,性别比失衡对房价的影响具有明确的门槛效应,随着房价收入比的提高,性别失衡对房价的影响会逐渐加大;同时,当房价超出绝大部分家庭的支付能力后,住房的地位性商品属性会进一步加强,这将导致房价的持续上涨。     

Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process

This paper investigates the association between real estate demand and the volatility of population changes. In a financial liberalized housing market, the housing mortgage loan implies insurance function to homeowners through the default option. Larger expected volatilities in the population imply a higher value of the default option. When analyzing the impact of the long-term population development on housing prices, the traditional deterministic population forecasting employed by previous research provides limited credibility. By means of the newly developed stochastic population forecasting methodology and counterfactual numerical simulations, we found a huge volatility associated with long-term population forecasting. A positive correlation between the expected volatility of population changes and real estate demand is ascertained.     

人口结构因素对美国房地产业发展的影响

房地产业是美国经济的重要组成部分。二战后的美国房地产业发展呈现明显的周期波动状态。除货币市场、利率调整等经济因素和政府调控、政策调整等政治因素外,二战后美国人口结构变化也在很大程度上影响着房地产业的发展变化,其中,以人口年龄结构、家庭结构和空间分布结构对其影响最为显著。     

Exploring an analytic model of urban housing strata

An analytic model of urban housing strata is developed which utilizes housing structure type, housing tenure type, floor size, physical quality, residential area, and number of rooms to calculate a housing deficit for each housing characteristic. The housing norm is subtracted from the actual housing conditions. Each housing deficit value is weighted according to the priority of the 6 variables and then summed as the housing strata score. Negative scores are below the norm and positive ones above. The model is applied to empirical data for Seoul, Korea. The findings were that 66% of the family sample showed negative scores (unsatisfactory housing conditions). Scores range from -22 to =or+ 18. Morris and Winter's "housing adjustment model" is used to explain housing behavior when there is a gap between housing conditions and the norm. Housing behavior is analyzed with multiple regression analysis of housing strata, social strata, and family life stage variables. Findings indicate that the establishment stage in the family life cycle is more likely to be associated with upper housing strata. From the way the model is set up only those in the establishment, childbearing, and child-rearing stage could get a positive deficit housing score. Size of household is not statistically significant, but upper housing strata are reflective of families with 2.5 members. Those with 3-4.5 members may be in the upper middle housing strata. Those with 5 children are in the lower middle housing strata. Housing strata are significantly related to housing structure type, tenure type, and size and number of rooms. The high rise apartment is likely to be in the upper, the row house and multifamily house in the lower housing, and the single detached house is distributed through all 4 strata. Home ownership is highest in the upper strata. The proportion of housing with 18 pyong and 2 rooms is higher in the lower strata, while housing with 19-32 pyong (63-106 sq. ms) and 3 rooms is higher in the middle housing strata. Housing satisfaction is significantly explained by housing strata but not general social strata (r = .13). Propensity to move is explained by family life stage followed by housing strata.     

Mother's professional career versus reproductive behaviour in the family life cycle

A nationally representative survey of 2753 urban married women aged 20-54 years was conducted in 1989 in Poland. The family life cycle is described as family formation stage (first child is born), family development stage, family stabilization stage (last child is born and first child leaves home), and family shrinking stage (all children leave home). The sample included 69.1% in the family development stage, 20.2% in the stabilization stage, and 10.7% in the shrinking stage. Employment of women increased from 81.1% during the development stage to 89.9% during the stabilization stage. Labor force activity increased over time. The highest professional activity was 93% during the first stabilization stage. Only 5.6% of the sampled women had never worked. 54.8% had worked continually without breaks. Differences in parity among working and nonworking mothers changed over the life cycle. The parity of working mothers during the development stage was 1.85 compared to 2.12 among nonworking mothers. During the stabilization stage parity was 1.87 among working mothers and 2.57 among nonworking mothers. During the shrinking stage, parity was 2.57 among working mothers and 3.23 among nonworking mothers. The average number of children decreases in subsequent cohorts. The average number of children was 2.83 for cohorts married after 1959, 2.25 for cohorts married during 1960-69, and 2.08 for cohorts married during 1970-79. Birth decreases by cohort were quicker among working mothers. The difference between first and last cohort was 0.55 children for working mothers and 0.89 children for nonworking mothers. For all families of working and nonworking mothers in all cohorts and at all family life cycle stages, parity decreased with increased level of education. Little change occurred among mothers who never worked (inactive mothers). Working mothers' families completed reproduction 30 months earlier than inactive mothers. The entire reproductive period shortened between the first and last cohort from 100.4 months to 48.8 months. The differences between working and nonworking mothers reproductive years declined from about 3 years to about 2 years between the first and last cohort. The probability of bearing subsequent children is found to be irregular.     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

务工型老年流动人口的特征解析 ——基于定居意愿的比较

务工型老年流动人口是一个兼具独特性与复杂性的流动人口群体.虽然务工型老年流动人口的诸多特征看似介于非务工型老年流动人口与务工型中年流动人口之间,但是,本文利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,通过健康状态与在业状况对定居意愿影响模式的分析与比较发现,生命周期及代际支持理论对务工型老年流动人口定居意愿的适用性远高于市场...     

Life course events and residential change: unpacking age effects on the probability of moving

We know that life course events, especially divorce and separation, trigger residential moves, but we know less about how these and other life course events intersect with how far people move and the relationship with labour market change. This research uses data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics Survey in Australia to model a set of life course events and their intersection with the distance of move. I examine essentially positive events, marriage and new births and not so positive events, separation and divorce, and the unexpected events of widowhood and job loss, and their outcomes in the housing market. For the decision to move, the models partly parallel other studies of life course events and their role in the mobility decision, but the results provide enriched results about how age and life course events intersect. The analysis shows in greater detail how age acts as a proxy for complicated life course intersections with moving. The disruption of divorce and separation, as expected, increases the probability of moving but with different effects over distance. Households move in response to these life events but they are much less likely to change metropolitan locations, which reflects the embedded nature of family change and location. Overall, the research enriches previous studies of age-related links to migration and mobility.