西方货币政策规则对我国的启示

货币政策规则是指中央银行进行货币政策决策和操作的指导原则.西方货币政策规则主要包括货币数量规则、利率规则、汇率规则等.货币政策规则应该是货币政策制定的基准或依据,而非政策操作严格遵守的不变准则,必须结合本国实际及国际环境的不断变化对各种货币政策进行综合运用才能收到效果.西方货币政策规则对我国货币政策有四个方面的启示:一是货币政策制定者应分析研究货币供应量目标是否合理,以及将来可否有其他替代物的问题;二是货币政策目标应该有选择性的区间值,而不是固定性的单一值形式;三是要适时把利率作为货币政策中介目标;四是进一步增加货币政策的透明度.由此,当前我国货币政策的具体路径选择应是价格型政策与数量型政策并举,完善汇率制度,优化信贷结构等.     

宏观金融博弈分析与我国货币政策实践

西方经济学界将博弈分析方法推广到金融领域取得了理论成果,尤其以宏观金融博弈分析在20世纪90年代的最新发展为主要内容.完全信息动态博弈和不完全信息动态博弈两类模型,对货币政策的连贯性与可信度以及中央银行声誉做出了重新解释,货币政策目标、货币政策操作程序、中央银行独立性及政策透明度等热点问题在我国金融体制改革实践中的作用是至关重要的.     

日本数量宽松型货币政策及其效果分析

20世纪90年代泡沫经济崩溃后，日本货币政策经历了长期的探索，贴现率和隔夜拆借利率不断降低，1999年3月至2000年8月间甚至实施了零利率政策，依然没有使日本经济走出萧条，反而出现了通货紧缩，流动性陷阱预示常规货币政策已经无能无力；同时，90年代的系列紧急经济对策已经使日本政府债台高筑，财政政策几乎没有政策空间。因此，在2001年3月至2006年3月间，日本中央银行放弃传统的价格宽松型货币政策，改为数量宽松型货币政策，即操作目标从无担保隔夜拆借利率转化为商业银行在中央银行的准备金账户，通过不断提高央行购买国债的额度增加商行的超额准备金余额，扩大流动性，以期达到降低利率、增加商业银行贷款和投资、稳定金融体系和扩大经济增长预期及政策持续效果，并最终消除通货紧缩。从实施情况看，部分效果是显著的，而部分并没有达到预期效果。客观全面分析和评价日本这一特殊的货币政策具有很强的研究价值。     

金融危机前后中日货币政策比较

由2007年美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,绝大多数经济体都受到了不同程度的影响,全球经济呈现衰退趋势.为应对金融危机,防止经济进一步下滑,各国根据本国的特点制定了积极的货币政策,并采用各种货币政策工具实现在稳定物价的情况下保持经济增长的政策目标.本文重点比较了中国和日本两国在2008年金融危机前后货币政策的变化和两国采用货币政策工具的差异,分析了两国运用货币政策工具的特点,并对我国货币政策工具的运用提出了几点政策建议.     

新世纪货币政策管理的三个方向及其对我国的借鉴意义

货币政策一直是货币经济学家以及中央银行界的热点话题.进入新世纪,货币政策管理出现了前所有未有的大发展.最为明显的是下面三个方面:货币政策管理框架出现重大发展,即通货膨胀目标制度从无到有,对货币政策管理影响越来越大;货币政策制定与管理从神秘走向透明,透明度成为货币政策管理架构的重要组成部分;货币政策决策一改过去以个人单独决策为主导的模式,转变为普遍以货币政策委员会决策为主导.这些新方向对我国未来货币政策管理具有重要的借鉴意义.     

论货币信贷调控机制

论货币信贷调控机制胡云祥为实施不同的货币政策，以干预和调节社会经济活动，中央银行运用的三个主要政策工具是：准备率、贴现政策和公开市场业务。这三个工具是用作总量控制，即对整个社会的货币信用量加以控制、调节，以达到预期的宏观经济目标，保障市场经济机制的正...     

货币政策的系统性探析

从2008年为应对国际金融危机导致的经济下滑到2010年为应对流动性过剩带来的物价上涨,政策当局频频调整货币政策的方向和力度。对过去政策的反向调控并不是对过去政策行为的否定,关键是从政策目标的确定到政策的退出是否有利于确保经济平稳健康运行,为此,我们从货币政策目标、政策工具、政策传导渠道、政策有效性及非常规货币政策退出等方面对货币政策进行系统性探析,以明确我国货币政策对经济运行的调控机理并指出经济背景变迁下政策未来的调整方向。     

财政政策与货币政策的组合效应——加强宏观调控应对金融危机

财政政策与货币政策是国家对宏观经济进行调控的重要工具,但由于二者调控目标、手段与功能的差异而具有各自的局限性,但同时也形成一定互补性,因此,我们应根据不同的经济形势和调控目标采取不同的政策组合模式.改革开放以来,我们积累了宏观调控的丰富经验,调控艺术日趋成熟,但全球性金融危机无疑向宏观调控提出了新的挑战,尤其是在我国经济调整期间,我们首先应理顺财政体制和金融体制关系,从制度上保障财政政策与货币政策内在传导机制的通畅,然后在目标导向下优化选择二者的组合效应方式,既要注意防止总体经济的大起大落,又要保证调控的动态性与市场化取向,只有发挥优化组合拳效应才能顺利应对全球金融危机,走出经济调整困境.实现保增长目标.     

中国货币政策中介目标作用机制比较

在不同时期,中国采用不同的货币的数量指标作为货币政策的中介目标.本研究以货币经济理论为基础.运用计量经济办法,对自 1992年以来货币政策的传导机制,以1998年为分界点进行了分时段比较分折.发现:(1)在1997年底以前,信贷规模与宏脱经济之间并不存在稳定的相关关系;而在1998年初以后,信贷规模变动对经济有较强的引导作用.(2)货币供应量M,基本上是经济内生地决定的,其没有起到货币政策中介目标的作用.(3)货币供应量M2在1997年底以前是由经济内生决定的变量;而在1998年初以后,两者之间的作用关系发生了逆转,其对经济有较强的引导作用,起到了货币政策中介目标的作用.(4)基础货币是其他金融变量的内生变量,其不能成为货币政策的操作目标.(5)在1997年底以前货币供应量M2和信贷规模之间不存在Granger因果关系,在1998年初后货币供应量M2的变化能导致信贷规模的变化.总体而言,在1997年底以前,信贷规摸是货币政策的中介目标;在1998年初以后,货币供应量M2是中介目标,同时也是货币政策的操作目标.     

浅析我国货币政策独立性与通货膨胀的关系——兼论2011年通胀

本轮自2008年底开始的经济衰退,在"适度宽松的货币政策"及积极财政政策的配合作用下,经济增长很快走出了低谷,效果明显。但自2010年下半年尤其是2011年却出现了较高的通货膨胀。本文从货币政策独立性的角度分析了通胀形成的原因。认为中央银行缺乏足够的独立性、财政政策货币化、缺乏弹性的汇率制度导致货币政策缺乏独立性,使得货币供应量失控并导致了通货膨胀。     

Effect of monetary policy credibility on the fear of floating: Evidence from Brazil

Based on the argument that monetary policy credibility can reduce the fear of floating (FF), we analyze this hypothesis for Brazil. Since expectations play a key role under Inflation Targeting, we also analyze whether credibility can affect the expectations of financial markets about the FF of the Central Bank. The results show credibility can reduce the FF, and financial markets expect less intervention by the Central Bank when credibility is higher. Thus, policymakers must pay attention to the credibility of their policies, otherwise they may be misinterpreted regarding both the goals they pursue and how they conduct monetary policy.     

The impact of the twin financial crises

We focus on the first 20 years of the Euro, from 1999 to 2019, and we split this period into two approximate decades to examine the performance of three benchmarks: the real GDP quarterly growth, the annualized real per capita GDP changes and unemployment. These illustrate that the underperformance of Europe is more evident during the second decade. Searching for causes we find that the Global Financial Crisis was an exogenous shock to the EU but its impact was large in both the U.S. and the EU. One major reason is that the U.S. responded quickly and aggressively both fiscally and via an unconventional monetary policy. The Euro area was constrained by a European Central Bank that focused on price stability, and fiscal policy was not much of an option. The second shock of the Sovereign Debt Crisis was endogenous to the Euro area and it, more than the Global Financial Crisis, revealed the original weaknesses and fragility of the European monetary union. This financial fragility quickly translated into declines in aggregate demand and economic underperformance.     

Monetary policy,trade-offs and the transmission of UK Monetary Policy

We provide a new method to model changes in monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE) as well as the impact of these changes on UK economy. This is important as central bankers have widened the range of instruments in their monetary policy toolbox. Specifically, we estimate a proxy for the monetary policy stance and then analyse a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive with stochastic volatility model to explain the BoE’s trade-offs when making policy decisions and as well as to demonstrate dynamic impacts of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth. The empirical results show that our estimated monetary policy proxy is better at capturing the BoE’s policy when the interest rate lower bound becomes binding.     

Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy

This paper analyses what effects the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have on the economic activity of Eurozone countries. We identify groups of countries which exhibit different economic responses to monetary policy and the factors driving such spatial differences. We distinguish three periods, spanning from 2001 to 2017 and examine conventional as well as unconventional monetary policies in different economic backgrounds of expansion and crisis. We find problems of spatially asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in the period 2008M10–2014M12 and note that different spatial responses might operate in favour of monetary policy or be indifferent to this policy.     

银根紧缩、银根放松与放而不松——大萧条前后中美货币政策效果比较研究

对比20世纪20—30年代中国和美国的货币政策功能，在经济发达的美国，货币政策只能刹车不能启动，符合货币理论的逻辑，而在经济落后的近代中国，货币供给既能刹车又能启动，现代货币理论对此无法解释。货币政策无法启动经济的前提是需求约束型经济（美国），而在供给约束型经济（中国）中，货币政策是可以启动经济的。在两种经济状态下，紧缩银根都可以使经济增长减速或刹车。     

The impact of euro Area monetary policy on Central and Eastern Europe

This paper investigates the effects of a euro area monetary policy shock on Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). We use shadow rates as a proxy for the monetary policy stance and propose a novel way of treating euro area countries in a multi-country framework. More specifically, our approach allows to place sign restrictions on both euro area aggregate and single member states’ quantities. This procedure fully takes cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area into account and leads to shocks that are economically consistent between both layers of aggregation. Our results show that prices and output fall in response to the euro area monetary tightening, both within the euro area and the CESEE region but to a varying degree. The revealed cross-country heterogeneity in the size of the effects emphasizes the usefulness and importance of our empirical approach.     

我国货币政策失效的原因分析及对策

1997年以来,我国的货币政策在经济增长中起到了一定的作用,但也存在一些失效,主要表现在利率机制、准备金政策、公开市场业务等方面存在缺陷。因此,必须不断完善我国的货币政策,以便更好地为经济增长提供政策指导。     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Modeling U.S. monetary policy during the global financial crisis and lessons for Covid-19

The paper formulates the modeling of unconventional monetary policy and critically evaluates its effectiveness to address the Global Financial Crisis. We begin with certain principles guiding general scientific modeling and focus on Milton Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address that delineates the strengths and limitations of monetary policy to pursue certain goals. The modeling of monetary policy with its novelty of quantitative easing to target unusually high unemployment is evaluated by a Markov switching econometric model using monthly data for the period 2002–2015. We conclude by relating the lessons learned from unconventional monetary policy during the Global Financial Crisis to the recent bold initiatives of the Fed to mitigate the economic and financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on U.S. households and businesses.     

货币政策与资本市场关系的理论溯源

货币政策与资本市场之间的关系,其深刻的理论渊源可以从货币数量理论和有效市场理论的有关论述中探寻。这些理论对于货币政策在资本市场预测效力上存在争论,经济学家对这两种理论的维护和相互融通方面做出了重要贡献。