日美贸易摩擦经验与教训再审视

日美贸易摩擦的历史长达四十余年,对日本的经济发展产生了深远影响。近年美国面临着经常账户与财政双赤字问题的困扰,中美贸易摩擦日趋激烈。在这一背景下,有必要回顾与分析日美贸易摩擦的历史,探讨其中的经验与教训。通过国际经济理论分析得知经常账户不平衡问题的根源在于两国经济结构上的差异,需要采取结构性改革措施调整,贸易措施并不能解决这一问题。分析日美贸易摩擦历史发现,日本通过扩大对外直接投资、推动自主创新应对了美国的贸易措施,但也存在错误的经济政策影响经济发展、贸易摩擦抑制产业升级等教训。中国应促进自主创新,推动产业升级,扩大对外开放,积极吸引对华投资,实现中国经济的可持续发展。     

对经济的高增长和通货膨胀现象的思考

对经济的高增长和通货膨胀现象的思考向新民改革以来，我国经济发展中有二个值得注意的现象令人深思；一是国民经济在扩张一紧缩一再扩张一再紧缩的循环交替中运行。二是高赤字、高通货膨胀伴随着经济的高增长。上述二种现象如长期持续下去的话，是否会把我国国民经济的运...     

数字也温暖

7．0％ 全球著名人力资源管理咨询与服务外包公司翰威特公布的“2009年度天津城市全面薪酬评估结果”显示,2009年天津的薪资实际增长水平与全国实际增长持平,而预计增长水平则基本与全国相比略高。预计2010年天津薪资增长率平均将达到7．0％．     

后危机时代我国经济形势分析与政策取向

金融危机对世界经济发展的后遗症主要有:世界经济受到冲击;一些国家财政出现巨额赤字;一些国家经济损失惨重;世界经济市场遭到破坏;一些国家存在"二次探底"的可能:各国经济复苏缓慢.后危机对中国经济形势的影响有两种分析和判断:一种主张经济增长速度下滑.原因是:从投资看,中国有投资减速的趋势;从消费看,2010年大幅度增长的可能性不大:从出口看,后危机时代世界经济的恢复对我国经济增长的拉动不大.另一种主张经济稳定发展.原因是:在制度方面,我国集中式的政治体制在应对危机的过程中是行之有效的;在出口方面,我国强劲增长,进口增速放缓,顺差大幅回升;从消费看,城镇居民家庭月消费增加;在外贸方面,随着世界经济复苏,2010年二季度对外贸易进一步回暖.各国经济在2009年深度衰退后呈现出复苏态势.基于此,我国应采取的政策取向为:调整结构;服务业应成为国民经济的主导产业;扩大消费需求,拉动经济增长;调整财政和货币政策.     

国际金融危机中越南的经济表现和反危机措施评价

2008年的国际金融危机给越南经济带来的冲击主要表现在出口下滑,为此,越南采取了一系列反危机措施,其关注点在保持经济增长和抑制通货膨胀上。由于措施得力,越南在2009年和2010年上半段经济表现良好,经济保持较高增长率。综观越南的反危机方案,规模大和对工商企业的扶植大是两大主要特征。越南应充分利用危机的＂倒逼＂机制,解决长期困扰的通胀、财政赤字与经济增长之间失衡的难题,实现结构性调整,创新经济发展模式。     

中国和印度建设资金来源比较

中国和印度都在力争实现经济现代化。目前两国都在执行第七个五年经济发展计划,也都不同程度地面临着建设资金不足的问题。长期来,两国建设资金的构成不完全相同。印度实行赤字财政政策,但通货膨胀业不十分严重。中国一贯坚持财政收支平衡略有盈余的方针,但自经济改革以来年年有赤字,物价呈上涨趋势。现将两国建设规模、资金来源等作一比较。     

综合性世界通货膨胀的结构

目前,世界各国都遭到激烈的通货膨胀风暴的袭击.通货膨胀的表现形式各国不尽相同,和以前固定汇率时代游资过剩性通货膨胀也不相同.分析一下二十世纪七十年代后半期主要先进国家的复苏过程和通货膨胀问题,可以明确地指出以下三大特征:第一个特征是,在实行浮动汇率情况下清晰可见的两极分化现象一直持续到1977年前后.英国、意大利等国经历着持续的通货膨胀,经常收支出现严重赤字,汇率下跌,在此情况下,失业问题日趋     

通货膨胀与经济增长:来自4个南亚国家的案例

孟加拉国、印度、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡是 4个南亚国家 ,本文试图去考察这些国家的通货膨胀与国内生产总值增长之间的相互关系。在南亚国家 ,通货膨胀与经济增长之间密切的相互联系是显而易见的。对于经济增长来说 ,适度的通货膨胀是有利的 ,然而 ,高速经济增长也将在一定程度上加剧通货膨胀。因此 ,上述国家将处于两难境地。在理论研究和经验研究领域 ,通货膨胀与经济增长之间的相互关系仍然是一个极具争议的话题。这场争论起源于 2 0世纪 5 0年代 ,并在结构主义者与货币主义者 (monetarists)之间引发了一场旷日持久的论战。结构主义者认为 ,…     

近年来日元汇率的走势及成因探析

亚洲金融危机以来 ,日元在经历连续三年的贬值后开始步入升值周期。日本经济的欠佳表现、美国奉行的强势美元政策是造成日元贬值的主要原因。尽管日本央行积极干预汇市 ,但美国为平衡经常账户赤字而对美元贬值的纵容以及恐怖袭击事件引发的恐慌性资本外逃 ,促使日元汇率超常升值。由于日本经济复苏缓慢、央行具有日元贬值偏好以及美国仍要维护强势美元政策的巨大利益等原因 ,未来的日元汇率走势将主要表现为“美元趋强、日元趋弱”。国际政治的不确定性在一定程度上会改变日元的运行轨迹     

经济刺激计划的负面效应分析——以美国为样本

在经济萧条时,经济刺激计划对于避免震荡、稳定市场、恢复信心、促进增长有重要作用。但当经济止跌企稳时,经济刺激计划要适时退出,否则会带来政府财政负担加大,赤字增加,潜在通货膨胀压力加大,财政政策的挤出效应,助长道德风险和逆市场化改革等一系列负外部效应。以美国为例,分析美国经济救援和经济刺激计划的负外部效应,从而提出对中国四万亿经济刺激计划实施的反思与启示。     

The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

We employ a new approach to the twin deficit hypothesis aimed at enhancing policy making in Egypt. In contrast to the conventional twin deficit hypothesis between the current account, which comprises many items out of governments’ scope of maneuvering, and the budget deficit, we track the causal link between Egypt’s merchandise trade deficit and the budget deficit. We begin first by examining the conventional twin deficit hypothesis using a VAR model, which implies short run reverse causation running from the current account deficit to the budget deficit. Second, as cointegration exists between the budget deficit and the merchandise trade deficit, we run a multivariate VECM model which refutes the twin deficit hypothesis in favor of the current account targeting hypothesis. In policy terms, ameliorating Egypt’s trade balance would ultimately improve its fiscal balance as well.     

The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa

Empirical literature on debt–growth nexus and deficit-growth nexus indicate that government debt and fiscal deficit could have negative effects on economic growth after a certain threshold level. However, the impacts of debt and deficit on economic growth via the financial sector have not been thoroughly explored. Thus, this study examines the effects of debt and deficit on finance–growth nexus in West African region. It employs empirical strategies that account for various economic and econometrics issues. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of financial development on growth varies with the levels of debt and deficit. Specifically, the marginal effects of financial development on growth turn negative when debt and deficit exceed the threshold levels of 48.6% and −13.5% of GDP, respectively. The implication of this study is that the financial sector is one of the channels through which debt and deficit exert their influences on economic growth. Thus, an increase in financial development would not produce the desirable long-run economic benefits unless it is accompanied by a reduction in government debt and fiscal deficit. Based on the findings, the study makes some policy recommendations.     

The sustainability of Australia's current account deficits—A reappraisal after the global financial crisis

The heated debate over the sustainability of Australia's high current account deficit that raged over most of the fixed and floating exchange period was due to the failure of policymakers to shift from the Keynesian Mundell Fleming (KMF) paradigm which has been rendered obsolete by the floating of the Australian in 1983q4 to the Intertemporal Optimization (ITO) paradigm which was more appropriate under the floating exchange rate as advocated by a number of Australian economists in the Pitchford thesis. The Pitchford thesis contended that after the floating of the exchange rate the current account deficit was the residual outcome of rational optimizing decisions of private agents and if there was fiscal balance then the policy of targeting the reduction of the current account deficit based on the KMF paradigm was misconceived. Empirical tests based on the application of the net present value criterion using vector autoregressions, unit root and cointegration econometrics reveals that Australia's current account deficit revealed that the current account deficits were unsustainable during the fixed exchange period and over the whole study period 1960q3–2007q4, but not during the floating exchange rate period post-1983q4. Therefore the empirical results gave credibility to the Pitchford thesis but Australian policymakers continued to target the reduction of the current account deficit because their failure to make the paradigm shift from KMF to ITO to be consistent with the regime shift from a fixed to a floating exchange rate. However, in 2004 after more than two decades feuding Australian policymakers accepted the Pitchford thesis and abandon the policy of targeting the reduction of the current account deficit. But the global financial crisis and global recession has delivered a death blow to the Pitchford thesis by undermining the key assumptions of fiscal balance and rationality that underpins it. The fiscal stimulus package that has been implemented to combat the fall in aggregate demand and restore consumer confidence due to the global recession has resulted in massive fiscal imbalance and the credit crunch has undermined rational behavior and consumer confidence. Therefore, the Pitchford thesis no longer rules the policy roost after the global financial crisis. In this study we draw on the conflicting policy perspectives on the unsustainability of high US current account deficits that tender a malign prognosis based on Salvatore's twin deficit hypothesis and a benign prognosis based on Bernanke's global savings glut hypothesis to identify some key policy challenges that confront Australian policymakers to navigate the Australian economy out of the global financial crisis and recession into a robust recovery phase in the near future.     

Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy,Greece and Spain

This article attempts to re-evaluate the sustainability of the fiscal deficit as well as the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government spending and revenues for three South-European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Italy, Greece and Spain. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2010 and employs various cointegration techniques to account for possible linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. The evidence for all three countries suggests that, allowing for structural break, (i) the fiscal deficits are weakly sustainable in the long-run, (ii) the spend-and-tax hypothesis is supported and (iii) the budgetary adjustment process is asymmetric in Italy and Spain.     

Industrial population,gross national product and growth of cities and towns

This article, which is translated from the original Chinese, examines whether China's current rate of urbanization is compatible with its economic development objectives. Changes in the level of urbanization from 1949 to 1984 are first reviewed. The author then outlines the growth of the urban labor force and the relationship between urbanization and gross national product. It is concluded that it is in the country's interest to continue to control the rate of urban growth up to the end of this century, in order to ensure that the urban population does not exceed 40 percent of the total population by the year 2000.     

Tunisia after the 2011’s revolution: Economic deterioration should,and could have been avoided

The political instability and social unrest in Tunisia since 2011, generated a short-term foresight of the macroeconomic management which contributed to the deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The objective of this paper is to provide the policy makers with quantitative arguments showing the importance to undertake the macroeconomic stabilization and the structural reforms that improve the total factor productivity, one of the main engines of a sustained economic growth. To that end, the paper employs a financial dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using six flow-of-funds accounts representing the Tunisian economy in 2010. In a first stage, I reproduce the main macroeconomic variables observed for the Tunisian economy over 2011–2018. In a second stage, the model is used to compare the impacts of counterfactual policy scenarios on the Tunisian macroeconomic performance. The results show that the economy could perform much better, in relation to a battery of macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, unemployment, public external and domestic debts, current account, fiscal balance) under alternative economic policies. The most insightful results are obtained under the scenario of a total factor productivity’s growth progressing at its average level of 2001–2010. Indeed, this could generate an average yearly gain in terms of GDP growth of 3.45 percentage points and a reduction of the average unemployment rate by 7 percentage points over the same time horizon.     

The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal

Diverging labor cost developments are often considered to be one of the most important factors that led to large current account imbalances in the euro area (EA) in the run-up to the global financial crisis. It has also been shown that wage growth differentials have significantly lowered the co-movement of EA countries’ business cycles – the most widely used meta-criterion for optimum currency areas. Against this background, this paper develops a wage-setting benchmark that aims to keep the economy in internal equilibrium and to maintain price stability, while it also exhibits the capacity to correct for external imbalances. The proposed wage benchmark is very simple and may serve as an anchor for the macroeconomic dialogue in Economic and Monetary Union. In order to demonstrate the potentially beneficial effects of such a wage benchmark we present some simulations showing how current account balances and labor costs would have developed across EA countries if the rule had served as a benchmark already in the run up to the crisis.     

Prospects for the Soviet economy to the year 2000

This article reviews the current state of the Soviet economy, and, after placing it within the broader context of the world economy, provides a number of alternative projections of its future course up to the year 2000. For this purpose an updated structural matrix of the Soviet economy was incorporated into a global structure of the world economy built for the United Nations and described in Leontief, Carter and Petri (The Future of the World Economy. New York: Oxford University Press, 1977). Several important modifications in the structural formulation of the model were carried out in order to account for the projected increased production and export of Soviet natural gas to the end of the century and to incorporate current estimates of Soviet agricultural and military-goods production.     

“十二五”中国经济发展预测研究

根据《中国统计年鉴—2010》的最新统计资料,通过建立对数新发展系数优化灰色模型,对2011年-2015年中国宏观经济发展趋势进行实证分析和预测研究,结果表明：（按2010年现价计,未扣除CPI等影响）2011年我国GDP将突破45万亿元,达到450143亿元,到2015年可达745511亿元,约为2010年的1．9倍;“十二五”期间整个国民经济发展态势良好,经济保持稳定增长,预计GDP年均增长率约为13．4％,“十二五”规划的预期目标可望顺利实现。     

An Intertemporal Analysis of Development Policies in the EU

In this paper, we focus on the effects of EU structural transfer programs on the evolution of the EU less developed economies. We develop a two-sector endogenous growth model of private and public physical capital and human capital accumulation in which the public sector and the current account balances play a crucial role. This model is applied to Portugal. Simulation results suggest that structural programs will bring Portuguese GDP per capita to 63.7% of the EU average (up from around 54% in the last two decades), thereby greatly contributing to the process of real convergence of the Portuguese economy to EU standards. Additional transfers, primarily targeted at infrastructure development, are necessary, however, if a greater degree of real convergence is to be achieved. Furthermore, the impact of transfers on public deficits, the current account, and real exchange rates might adversely affect the long run requirements of nominal convergence and might exacerbate the need for budgetary restraint in Portugal. Accordingly, a relaxation of domestic matching fund requirements might be desirable.