Low‐wage Jobs — Springboard to High‐paid Ones?

We examine whether low‐paid jobs have an effect on the probability that unemployed persons obtain better‐paid jobs in the future (springboard effect). We make use of data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and apply a dynamic random effects bivariate probit model. Our results suggest that low‐wage jobs can act as springboards to better‐paid work. The improvement of the chance to obtain a high‐wage job by accepting low‐paid work is particularly large for less‐skilled persons and for individuals who experienced longer periods of unemployment. Low‐paid work is less beneficial if the job is associated with a low social status.     

How Portable Is Level‐0 Behavior? A Test of Level‐k Theory in Games With Non‐Neutral Frames

We test the portability of level‐0 assumptions in level‐k theory in an experimental investigation of behavior in Coordination, Discoordination, and Hide and Seek games with common, non‐neutral frames. Assuming that level‐0 behavior depends only on the frame, we derive hypotheses that are independent of prior assumptions about salience. Those hypotheses are not confirmed. Our findings contrast with previous research which has fitted parameterized level‐k models to Hide and Seek data. We show that, as a criterion of successful explanation, the existence of a plausible model that replicates the main patterns in these data has a high probability of false positives.     

Is It Always Worth Waiting? The Effect of Autonomy‐supportive Teaching on Short‐term and Long‐term Learning Outcomes

Autonomy is known for its positive effects and its use in management practice. Recently an urgent debate has emerged on its drawbacks on individual outcomes. In this study, we investigate and test a model on the effect on individual learning of an autonomy‐supportive teaching style and its interplay with the learner's previous experience and perceived management support. Specifically, while research has emphasized the positive effect of similar contexts, this study focuses on its differential effect on short‐term and long‐term learning outcomes, challenging the traditional view of autonomy. We also explore how job experience and management support can improve the effects of autonomy on individual learning. We test our model by collecting longitudinal data on a sample of 200 individuals participating in a training programme on managerial skills. Our results show that (1) the extent to which teachers were perceived as autonomy‐supportive presents a linear relationship with short‐term learning outcomes (utility reactions) and a positive curvilinear relationship with training transfer in the long term; (2) learner job experience and perceived management support for learning have a positive moderating effect on the linear relationship between autonomy and learning outcomes.     

Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing‐Power‐Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean‐Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price

The PPP puzzle is based on empirical evidence that international price differences for individual goods (LOOP) or baskets of goods (PPP) appear highly persistent or even nonstationary. The present consensus is these price differences have a half‐life that is of the order of five years at best, and infinity at worst. This seems unreasonable in a world where transportation and transaction costs appear so low as to encourage arbitrage and the convergence of price gaps over much shorter horizons, typically days or weeks. However, current empirics rely on a particular choice of methodology, involving (i) relatively low‐frequency monthly, quarterly, or annual data, and (ii) a linear model specification. In fact, these methodological choices are not innocent, and they can be shown to bias analysis towards findings of slow convergence and a random walk. Intuitively, if we suspect that the actual adjustment horizon is of the order of days, then monthly and annual data cannot be expected to reveal it. If we suspect arbitrage costs are high enough to produce a substantial “band of inaction,” then a linear model will fail to support convergence if the process spends considerable time random‐walking in that band. Thus, when testing for PPP or LOOP, model specification and data sampling should not proceed without consideration of the actual institutional context and logistical framework of markets.     

DOES THE BETTER‐THAN‐AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS

We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the Bayesian critique offered by Benoît and Dubra (Jean‐Pierre Benoît and Juan Dubra (2011). “Apparent Overconfidence.” Econometrica, 79, 1591–1625). We discuss possible limitations of our results.     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

Are Self‐Service Customers Satisfied or Stuck?

This paper investigates the impact of self‐service technology (SST) usage on customer satisfaction and retention. Specifically, we disentangle the distinct effects of satisfaction and switching costs as drivers of retention among self‐service customers. Our empirical analysis examines 26,924 multi‐channel customers of a nationwide retail bank. We track each customer's channel usage, overall satisfaction, and retention over a 1‐year period. We find that, relative to face‐to‐face service, customers who use self‐service channels for a greater proportion of their transactions are either no more satisfied, or less satisfied with the service they receive, depending on the channel. However, we also find that these same customers are predictably less likely to defect to a competitor if they are heavily reliant on self‐service channels characterized by high switching costs. Through a mediation model, we demonstrate that, when self‐service usage promotes retention, it does so in a way that is consistent with switching costs. As a robustness check, we examine the behavior of channel enthusiasts, who concentrate transactions among specific channels. Relative to more diversified customers, we find that self‐service enthusiasts in low switching cost channels defect with greater frequency, while self‐service enthusiasts in high switching cost channels are retained with greater frequency.     

CAN LONG‐RUN RESTRICTIONS IDENTIFY TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS?

Galí's innovative approach of imposing long‐run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations using calibrated business cycle models. Overall, Galí's methodology appears to be fruitful: the impulse responses derived from the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses, and the approach can be informative in discriminating between alternative models. However, our results reveal some important quantitative shortcomings, including considerable estimation uncertainty about the impact of technology shocks on macroeconomic variables. More generally, the conditions under which the methodology performs well appear considerably more restrictive than implied by the key identifying assumption. This underscores the importance of using economic models to guide in the implementation of the approach, in interpreting the results, and in assessing its limitations. (JEL: C32, E32, O33)     

固基础·促转变·惠民生-2010＇中国经济社会发展路径

新世纪以来经济最困难的2009年已经过去,2010年既是夯实复苏基础的调整之年,又是实现可持续发展的关键之年,同时也是中国与世界发展进一步融合的一年。     

Level‐k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private‐Value Auctions?

This paper proposes a structural nonequilibrium model of initial responses to incomplete‐information games based on “level‐k” thinking, which describes behavior in many experiments with complete‐information games. We derive the model's implications in first‐ and second‐price auctions with general information structures, compare them to equilibrium and Eyster and Rabin's (2005) “cursed equilibrium,” and evaluate the model's potential to explain nonequilibrium bidding in auction experiments. The level‐k model generalizes many insights from equilibrium auction theory. It allows a unified explanation of the winner's curse in common‐value auctions and overbidding in those independent‐private‐value auctions without the uniform value distributions used in most experiments.     

What Number is “Fifty‐Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive 50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities

Studies using open-ended response modes to elicit probabilistic beliefs have sometimes found an elevated frequency (or blip) at 50 in their response distributions. Our previous research suggests that this is caused by intrusion of the phrase "fifty-fifty," which represents epistemic uncertainty, rather than a true numeric probability of 50%. Such inappropriate responses pose a problem for decision analysts and others relying on probabilistic judgments. Using an explicit numeric probability scale (ranging from 0-100%) reduces thinking about uncertain events in verbal terms like "fifty-fifty," and, with it, exaggerated use of the 50 response. Here, we present two procedures for adjusting response distributions for data already collected with open-ended response modes and hence vulnerable to an exaggerated presence of 50%. Each procedure infers the prevalence of 50s had a numeric probability scale been used, then redistributes the excess. The two procedures are validated on some of our own existing data and then applied to judgments elicited from experts in groundwater pollution and bioremediation.     

How Selective Are Real Wage Cuts? A Micro‐analysis Using Linked Employer–Employee Data

Using linked employer–employee panel data for Germany, we investigate whether firms implement real wage reductions in a selective manner. In line with insider–outsider and several strands of efficiency wage theory, we find strong evidence for selective wage cuts with high‐productivity workers being spared even when controlling for permanent differences in firms' wage policies. In contrast to some recent contributions stressing fairness considerations, we also find that wage cuts increase wage dispersion among peers rather than narrowing it. Notably, the same selectivity pattern shows up when restricting our analysis to firms covered by collective agreements or having a works council.     

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk‐taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We employ a two‐stage model that analyzes the granting of loan applications in the first stage and loan outcomes for the applications granted in the second stage, and that controls for both observed and unobserved, time‐varying, firm and bank heterogeneity through time*firm and time*bank fixed effects. We find that a lower overnight interest rate induces lowly capitalized banks to grant more loan applications to ex ante risky firms and to commit larger loan volumes with fewer collateral requirements to these firms, yet with a higher ex post likelihood of default. A lower long‐term interest rate and other relevant macroeconomic variables have no such effects.     

DO PARTIES MATTER FOR ECONOMIC OUTCOMES? A REGRESSION‐DISCONTINUITY APPROACH

A long‐standing issue in political economics is to what extent party control makes a difference in determining fiscal and economics policies. This question is very difficult to answer empirically because parties are not randomly selected to govern political entities. This article uses a regression‐discontinuity design, namely, party control changes discontinuously at 50% of the vote share, which can produce “near” experimental causal estimates of the effect of party control on economic outcomes. The method is applied to a large panel data set from Swedish local governments with a number of attractive features. The results show that there is an economically significant party effect: Left‐wing governments spend and tax 2–3% more than right‐wing governments. Left‐wing governments also have 7%lower unemployment rates, which is partly due to that left‐wing governments employ 4% more workers than right‐wing governments. (JEL: C21, D72, D78, H71, H72)     

Does Rent‐sharing Profit Female and Male Workers? Evidence from Israeli Matched Employer–Employee Data

This paper analyses the impact of workplace characteristics on individual wages based on a unique cross‐section matched employer–employee data set for the Israeli private manufacturing sector in 1995. Specifically, we examine the effects of the interaction between profit‐sharing and wages on the gender wage gap. The empirical findings show that individual compensation is significantly and positively correlated with firms’ profits‐per‐employee, even when controlling for all of the following: group effects in the residuals, individual and firms’ characteristics, industry wage differentials and endogeneity of profits. Wage–profit elasticity is found to be 11 per cent and it does not significantly differ between genders. With respect to the overall gender wage gap (on average women earn 28 per cent less than men), the results show that within firms there is no gender discrimination and that 12 per cent of this gap can be explained by the wage–profits profile and by the fact that women are more likely to be employed in less profitable firms than men.     

Twice as Smart? The Importance of Managers’ Formative‐Years’ International Experience for their International Orientation and Foreign Acquisition Decisions

This study examined how top management team's (TMT) international orientation influences perceptions of environmental uncertainty and how these perceptions impact international strategic decisions, in particular regarding ownership stakes taken in foreign acquisitions. We highlighted the need for the concept of TMT international orientation to encompass executives’ formative‐years’ international experiences along with their international career experiences and nationalities. Empirical tests based on a sample of 2122 international acquisitions completed by 561 UK firms over the period 1999–2008 showed that TMT international orientation positively moderated the negative impact of cultural differences and host country risk on acquisition ownership stakes. The results underscored the importance of considering decision‐makers’ attributes due to their experiences at a young age, beyond their demographic characteristics or professional experience, in the context of international strategic choices. We also discussed some implications of one of the possible consequences of executives’ formative international experience, namely biculturalism, for international business.     

The Long‐term Unemployed: A New Protected Class of Employee?

Since the onset of the latest United States (U.S.) recession (beginning in December 2007), the U.S. economy has been posting high unemployment levels consistently exceeding 8 percent. Of specific interest, the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reports on a specific subset of the U.S. unemployed: the long‐term unemployed, defined as those who are unemployed for 27 weeks and over. Since December 2009, the share of the long‐term unemployed of the total U.S. unemployed has exceeded 40 percent (through April 2012), the highest level since 1948 when data was first collected. A phenomenon of this recession is an alleged public bias by American private sector employers against hiring the long‐term unemployed, or even simply those unemployed. While the authors support the removal of discrimination against the unemployed in job advertisements, they cannot support the larger notion of including those who are unemployed as a protected class of employees. Becoming or being unemployed is a state that one can change, and based on the lack of research on how widespread this discrimination is (beyond anecdotal stories or limited research surveys), they believe that extending protection under equal employment opportunity legislation would be overreaching and inappropriate at this time.     

Tradeoffs in Manufacturing? A Meta‐Analysis and Critique of the Literature

An ongoing, important question in the operations strategy literature pertains to tradeoffs: Can manufacturers focus on multiple priorities simultaneously or achieve strength on multiple capabilities without sacrificing performance of another? In this paper, we accumulate, integrate, and examine the wide spectrum of conclusions reached in the literature concerning tradeoffs using modified meta‐analysis methods. Based on two decades of empirical research in operations strategy, we find that the evidence in the literature indicates manufacturers, on average, do not report experiencing tradeoffs among the competitive dimensions of quality, delivery, flexibility, and cost as suggested by the classical tradeoffs model. Our meta‐analysis also reveals that the way variables are operationalized, whether initiatives are implemented, and the unit of analysis are all related to the degree and nature of the evidence a paper contains with respect to the tradeoffs issue. We interpret our meta‐analysis results in the context of the prevailing model of manufacturing strategy and the theory of performance frontiers. We also discuss how the research designs used in this literature, which are predominantly cross‐sectional, affect the nature of the evidence generated and the conclusions that can be drawn. We go on to suggest research designs that more directly assess the tradeoffs issue.     

Do the Falling Earnings of Immigrants Apply to Self‐employed Immigrants?

It is well known that the earnings of recent cohorts of immigrant men have fallen further behind native‐born men. Using several years of Canadian Census data, this study finds that immigrants have turned to self‐employment at a much faster rate than the native born. In addition, the earnings gap between self‐employed immigrant and native‐born men has not grown with successive cohorts, but rather has followed a cyclical movement: narrowing at the peak, and widening in times of weaker economic activity. However, immigrants choosing self‐employment still face challenges, as their earnings are far below native‐born earnings, and convergence is a lengthy process.