INPUT TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND MARKUP DISTRIBUTION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

We utilize an unprecedented liberalization episode in China, namely its World Trade Organization accession, to estimate the impact of trade liberalization on firm markup and markup distribution. Using a panel data quantile regression, we show that the impact of tariff reduction on markup can be heterogeneous to different firms, resulting in an unevenly distributed markup change across firms. In particular, reduction in output tariff reduces markup and markup dispersion, while reduction in input tariff increases markup and markup dispersion. (JEL F12, F13)     

OFFSHORING PRODUCTION: A SIMPLE MODEL OF WAGES,PRODUCTIVITY, AND GROWTH

We examine the relationship between offshoring and the labor market in an occupational choice model of trade and endogenous growth where workers are employed on the basis of their individual skill levels. Trade liberalization leads to offshoring and reduces employment in the manufacturing sector. Displaced workers move into traditional and innovation sectors according to their skill levels, shaping real wages and aggregate productivity in the manufacturing sector. The paper aims to show how inter‐sectoral labor market adjustments, highlighted by skill heterogeneity, could be a possible explanation for the simultaneous rise in productivity and reduction in real wages that have coincided with the sharp escalation of offshoring activities in the U.S. manufacturing sector since 2004. (JEL F16, F23, J24)     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND CORPORATE INCOME TAX AVOIDANCE

We identify the effect of trade liberalization on corporate income tax avoidance in a sample of Chinese manufacturing firms, taking advantage of China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). We find that firms engage in more tax avoidance in industries with larger tariff reductions. Further analysis shows that firms with a lack of cash or a high demand for cash before WTO entry tend to engage in more tax avoidance after WTO entry. Our study also provides evidence that manipulating costs is one way that firms avoid corporate income tax. (JEL D22, F61, F63, H26)     

SKILLED‐UNSKILLED WAGE INEQUALITY AND URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT

The impact of trade liberalization on the labor market in the North has drawn tremendous attention in the face of the growing skilled‐unskilled wage gap but in the South it has been somewhat neglected. One of the key structural differences between the North and the South is that the South experiences a pronounced rural‐urban migration in the presence of urban unemployment. We introduce this feature in the structure of a simple general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of trade liberalization and fragmentation on employment and the skilled‐unskilled wage differential in the South. In particular, we show that while fragmentation necessarily improves the unskilled wage and the skilled wage, more lucrative global opportunities for the skilled final product, in the absence of fragmentation, can reduce the rural wage and increase urban unemployment. The effect of fragmentation, ceteris paribus, on the skilled‐unskilled wage gap is sensitive to the degree of substitutability between land and unskilled labor. As such, fragmentation can magnify the increase in the skilled‐unskilled wage gap resulting from an improvement in the terms of trade. It is also shown that a technological progress in the intermediate goods sector increases the skilled‐unskilled wage gap and raises urban unemployment. (JEL F1, O1, F11, F12)     

DETERMINANTS OF TRADE AND SPECIALIZATION IN THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO‐OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES

This paper empirically investigates the relative importance of productivity, factor endowments, trade costs, and tastes in determining the current pattern of trade and specialization. The results show that productivity and taste differences are the first and second most significant determinants of trade and specialization. Factor endowments are the least influential for the average country in the data set, but their effects are much greater in the poorer than richer countries. The results also show the substantial role of trade costs, which is amplified through interactions with other determinants of trade. Trade costs affect the relative costs of intermediate inputs and final goods, link preferences with specialization, and reduce the geographical range of comparative advantages. (JEL F1, F10)     

TRADE COSTS AND JOB FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM ESTABLISHMENT‐LEVEL DATA

Changes in the costs of trading inputs or final goods affect establishment‐level job flows. Using a longitudinal database containing the universe of manufacturing establishments in California from 1992 to 2004, we find that a decline in input or final‐good trade costs is associated with job destruction in the least productive establishments, job creation in the most productive establishments, and an increase in the death likelihood of the least productive establishments. The evidence is consistent with predictions of models of trade with heterogeneous firms. Additionally, the evidence shows that the effects of input trade costs on establishment‐level job flows are larger than the effects of final‐good trade costs. (JEL F14, F16)     

THE DURATION OF FIRM‐DESTINATION EXPORT RELATIONSHIPS: EVIDENCE FROM SPAIN, 1997–2006

This article uses survival analysis to investigate the duration of Spanish firms' trade relationships by destination over 1997–2006. Whereas firm export status is highly persistent, firms' destination portfolio is very dynamic: a typical firm‐country exporting relationship has a median duration of 2 years. Yet, if a firm manages to export to a country beyond 2 years the risk of exiting that market sharply falls afterwards. The results indicate that not only firm heterogeneity but also destination heterogeneity are crucial to explain survival in export markets. In particular, country (political) risk heavily shapes the effect of firm, product, and other destination characteristics on the length of trade relationships. Whereas firm productivity, comparative advantage, partners' GDP, and proximity enhance duration of trade with low‐risk countries, they have no effect on trade survival with high‐risk countries. On the contrary, information spillovers are particularly relevant to enhance survival of trade relationships with high‐risk countries. (JEL C41, F10, F14)     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE COSTS ON FIRM ENTRY,EXPORTING, AND SURVIVAL IN KOREA

This study examines how changes in trade costs have affected entry, exit, productivity, and exporting in the Korean manufacturing sector. We verify several predictions of heterogeneous‐firm models of international trade. For example, falling import‐trade costs are associated with less entry and lower market shares among existing domestic firms, and higher total factor productivity for Korean manufacturing as a whole. The size of firms plays an important role in many of our results. New domestic firms are more likely to be small, but large firms are less likely to exit and more likely to have an increase in total factor productivity. (JEL F10, D24)     

OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

DOES THE VAT TAX EXPORTS?

While a VAT should in principle be neutral with respect to international trade, it may in practice function as a tax on exporters' input purchases if firms receive incomplete VAT refunds. Using data for over 100 countries that span the majority of historical VAT adoption episodes, this paper finds that—consistent with this hypothesis—the VAT reduces the exports of an industry with a 10 percentage point higher intermediate goods share of output by over 8% relative to an industry with a lower share. This effect is driven by developing countries and is absent for high-income countries. (JEL F13, F14, H25, H87, O11)     

DOES LIMITED PUNISHMENT LIMIT THE SCOPE FOR CROSS RETALIATION?

This paper analyzes two prominent institutional rules in the international trading system: a limited cross‐retaliation rule characterized by the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU) Article 22.3 and a limited punishment rule characterized by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Article XXVIII. In general, both rules are designed to limit the countermeasures upon a violation; however, the former rule specifies the limits of composition in retaliation, whereas the latter one designates the limits of retaliation magnitude. We show that, albeit seemingly unrelated, the limited cross‐retaliation rule complements the limited punishment rule in permitting greater trade liberalization. Specifically, we show how the limited cross‐retaliation rule also helps limit the incentives to violate the trade agreement when the limited punishment rule prevails. (JEL F13, K33, C73)     

FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AS DYNAMIC FARSIGHTED NETWORKS

In the presence of multilateral negotiations, are Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) necessary for, or will they prevent, global free trade? I answer this question using a dynamic farsighted model of network formation among asymmetric countries. Ultimately, FTAs prevent global free trade when there are two larger countries and one smaller country but FTAs can be necessary for global free trade when there are two smaller countries and one larger country. The model provides insights into the dynamics of recent real‐world negotiations and recent results in the literature on the empirical determinants of trade agreements. (JEL C71, F12, F13)     

WHAT'S BEHIND THE FIGURES? QUANTIFYING THE CROSS‐COUNTRY EXPORTER PRODUCTIVITY GAP

We present a simple framework that allows us to examine the cross‐country exporter productivity gap without accessing confidential firm‐level data. This gap depends on the three readily available statistics: the productivity gap between two countries; the export participation rates; and export premia. This gap holds irrespective of the distribution underlying firm productivity and irrespective of the presence of fixed costs. Under specific conditions, allocative efficiency may affect the exporter productivity gap. The empirical analysis globally validates this exercise. (JEL F1, D24)     

The Neoliberal Food Regime: Neoregulation and the New Division of Labor in North America

We undertake a comparative investigation of how neoliberal restructuring characterizes the third food regime in the three North American countries. By contrasting the experience of the two developed countries of the United States and Canada with that of the developing country of Mexico, we shine some empirical light on the differential impact of neoliberal regulatory restructuring on the division of labor in agriculture within the North American Free Trade Agreement region. In particular, we investigate these countries' agricultural production markets, trade, and food vulnerability—with an emphasis on Mexico—as analytical points for comparing and contrasting their experience with this neoliberal restructuring. We start with a synthesis of food‐regime theory and outline the key features of what we call the “neoliberal food regime.” We then discuss our case‐study countries in terms of food vulnerability and resistance in Mexico, their differential relationships to trade liberalization, and what these trends might mean for the evolution of the neoliberal food regime. We conclude that, while dominant trends are ominous, there is room for an alternative trajectory and consequent reshaping of the emerging regime: sufficient bottom‐up social resistance, primarily at the level of the nation–state, may yet produce an alternative trajectory.     

AN OPEN‐ECONOMY MODEL WITH MONEY,ENDOGENOUS SEARCH,AND HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS

This paper describes a new monetary open‐economy model where firms have market power due to search frictions in the goods market, and endogenous search effort by consumers mitigates this market power. The optimal inflation rate generally depends positively on the cost of search effort, the cost of firm entry, and the cost of trade. Higher inflation always improves a country's terms‐of‐trade against its trading partners. I also characterize a general class of matching processes which offer a novel approach to modeling firm sales. (JEL D43, E40, F12)     

THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION

This paper analyzes the distributional welfare impact of trade liberalization reforms on heterogeneous households. We develop a static applied general equilibrium model, and using a Social Accounting Matrix and Household Expenditure Survey, we calibrate it to match Slovenian data. We simulate the case of Slovenia joining the EU and quantify its welfare impact on households that differ in terms of age, income, and education. Additionally, we compare this benchmark case with two alternative scenarios: (1) a free trade agreement between Slovenia and the EU and (2) a custom union arrangement where tariff revenues are rebated proportionally to the households. We find that while trade liberalization leads to falling consumer prices, increased production in the export sectors, and aggregate welfare gains, the differentiated welfare impacts across heterogeneous households vary in their degrees. (JEL D58, F14, F15)     

INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON PRODUCT STANDARDS UNDER CONSUMPTION EXTERNALITIES: NATIONAL TREATMENT VERSUS MUTUAL RECOGNITION

This paper provides a comparative analysis of product standards agreements between heterogeneous countries. A simple model of vertical standards is developed where countries have heterogeneous preferences for a negative or positive consumption externality. I compare two major types of standards agreements, those based on national treatment (NT) and mutual recognition (MR). Unlike NT, MR can induce a mismatch of standards between countries, a problem that tends to get worse as country preferences diverge. Due to this mismatch problem, NT tends to become relatively more welfare‐enhancing than MR for countries with more dissimilar preferences. These findings explain why the World Trade Organization, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership, and the European Union choose different types of standards agreements. The paper also sheds new light on the desirability of international harmonization of product standards. (JEL F13, F18, O24)     

THE NATURE OF OUTSOURCING RELATIONSHIPS: EVIDENCE FROM OAP PRICES

This paper studies the extent and variation in production cost pass‐through for U.S. outsourcing imports. Data from 4,676 products imported through the U.S. overseas assembly program show that outsourcing imports were characterized by incomplete pass‐through of production and trade costs to import prices. Notably, pass‐through was higher for products assembled in high education countries while the response of outsourcing import prices to competing suppliers' prices was largest for products sold by firms in capital‐intense industries. The reasons for these cross‐country and cross‐industry differences, as they relate to theories of outsourcing and trade, are explored. (JEL F1, F2)     

TRADE COSTS AND TRADE COMPOSITION

In this paper, we investigate whether countries' trade costs act like other national endowments by affecting the composition of countries' exports. Using an econometric approach that controls for endogeneity by accounting for potentially relevant omitted variables, we find strong evidence for a sample of 37 industrialized and transition countries that national trade costs systematically affect the composition of trade and can be viewed therefore as a source of comparative advantage. Industries located in countries with low trade costs capture significantly higher shares of world exports, where this effect is stronger in trade cost intensive industries. (JEL F11, F14)