Convergence Rate of Wavelet Expansions of Gaussian Random Processes

This article characterizes uniform convergence rate for general classes of wavelet expansions of stationary Gaussian random processes. The convergence in probability is considered.     

Weak approximations for quantile processes of stationary sequences

ABSTRACT By studying the deviations between uniform empirical and quantile processes (the so-called Bahadur-Kiefer representations) of a stationary sequence in properly weighted sup-norm metrics, we find a general approach to obtaining weighted results for uniform quantile processes of stationary sequences. Consequently we are able to obtain weak convergence for weighted uniform quantile processes of stationary mixing and associated sequences. Further, by studying the sup-norm distance of a general quantile process from its corresponding uniform quantile process, we find that information at the two end points of the uniform quantile process can be so utilized that this weighted sup-norm distance converges in probability to zero under the so-called Csörgõ-Révész conditions. This enables us to obtain weak convergence for weighted general quantile processes of stationary mixing and associated sequences.     

Moment convergence of powered normal extremes

In this article, convergence for moments of powered normal extremes is considered under an optimal choice of normalizing constants. It is shown that the rates of convergence for normalized powered normal extremes depend on the power index. However, the dependence disappears for higher-order expansions of moments.     

Formulas for stationary planar fibre processes III – intersections with fibre systems

In this paper we investigate the distribution of the periodogram, respectively, the periodogram matrix for stationary random sequences. These .distributions are consid¬ered in the case of a fixed frequency as well as in the case of a finite number of frequencies for Gaussian sequences and for sequences of independent random variables. The exact distribution is obtained in the case of a fixed frequence for one-dimensional GAUSsian sequences. Asymptotic expansions, respectively, the rate of convergence to the asymptotic distribution are given in the case mentioned above     

Efficiency of linear predictors for periodic processes using an incorrect covariance function

Previous work by the author showed that for interpolating a weakly stationary random field, using an incorrect spectral density that has similar high-frequency behavior as the correct spectral density can yield asymptotically optimal linear predictions as the number of observations in a fixed domain increases. However, explicit results on how fast this convergence to optimality occurs could only be obtained for a limited class of processes in one dimension. By considering periodic processes, this work obtains explicit rates of convergence for a broad class of processes in any number of dimensions. These results suggest analogous ones for stationary processes.     

A significance test for classifying arma models

Given that the Euclidean distance between the parameter estimates of autoregressive expansions of autoregressive moving average models can be used to classify stationary time series into groups, a test of hypothesis is proposed to determine whether two stationary series in a particular group have significantly different generating processes. Based on this test a new clustering algorithm is also proposed. The results of Monte Carlo simulations are given.     

Edgeworth Expansion for Linear Regression Processes with Long-Memory Errors

This article provides an Edgeworth expansion for the distribution of the log-likelihood derivative LLD of the parameter of a time series generated by a linear regression model with Gaussian, stationary, and long-memory errors. Under some sets of conditions on the regression coefficients, the spectral density function, and the parameter values, an Edgeworth expansion of the density as well as the distribution function of a vector of centered and normalized derivatives of the plug-in log-likelihood PLL function of arbitrarily large order is established. This is done by extending the results of Lieberman et al. (2003 Lieberman , O. , Rousseau , J. , Zucker , D. M. ( 2003 ). Valid edgeworth expansions for the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter of a stationary. gaussian, strongly dependent processes. it Ann. Statist. 31:586–612 . [Google Scholar]), who provided an Edgeworth expansion for the Gaussian stationary long-memory case, to our present model, which is a linear regression process with stationary Gaussian long-memory errors.     

A Semiparametric Regression Model for Longitudinal Data with Non‐stationary Errors

Motivated by the need to analyze the National Longitudinal Surveys data, we propose a new semiparametric longitudinal mean‐covariance model in which the effects on dependent variable of some explanatory variables are linear and others are non‐linear, while the within‐subject correlations are modelled by a non‐stationary autoregressive error structure. We develop an estimation machinery based on least squares technique by approximating non‐parametric functions via B‐spline expansions and establish the asymptotic normality of parametric estimators as well as the rate of convergence for the non‐parametric estimators. We further advocate a new model selection strategy in the varying‐coefficient model framework, for distinguishing whether a component is significant and subsequently whether it is linear or non‐linear. Besides, the proposed method can also be employed for identifying the true order of lagged terms consistently. Monte Carlo studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of our approach, and an application of real data is also illustrated.     

Convergence de I estimateur a noyau de derivees de Radon-Nikodym generales dans le cas melangeant

In many situations, nonparametric inference in point-process theory consists in estimating a Radon-Nikodym derivative of a nonnegative measure p with respect to another nonnegative measure v, where p and v are intensities of point processes. We consider the case of a mixing andstrictly stationary sequence of point processes and establish convergence results for the kernel estimator.     

A simple solution for spurious regressions

ABSTRACT

The literature on spurious regressions has found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of non stationary data-generating processes for the dependent and explanatory variables. This paper introduces a simple method which guarantees convergence of this t-statistic to a pivotal limit distribution, thus allowing asymptotic inference. This method can be used to distinguish a genuine relationship from a spurious one among integrated processes. We apply the proposed procedure to several pairs of apparently independent integrated variables, and find that our procedure does not find (spurious) significant relationships.     

Limit distribution for point processes of high local maxima

We define a local dependence condition which enables us to obtain a sufficient condition for the convergence in distribution of the sequence of point processes of high local maxima generated by a strictly stationary sequence of random variables. The limit point process is an homogeneous Poisson process. The result is applied to a stationary autoregressive sequence of maxima for which, after each upcrossing of a high level, we observe a downward tendency.     

Hypotheses Testing: Poisson Versus Self-exciting

Abstract.  We consider the problem of hypotheses testing with the basic simple hypothesis: observed sequence of points corresponds to the stationary Poisson process with known intensity. The alternatives are stationary self-exciting point processes. We consider one-sided parametric and one-sided non-parametric composite alternatives and construct locally asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests. The results of numerical simulations of the tests are presented.     

A weak convergence criterion for constructing changes of measure

Based on a weak convergence argument, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that guarantees that a nonnegative local martingale is indeed a martingale. Typically, conditions of this sort are expressed in terms of integrability conditions (such as the well-known Novikov condition). The weak convergence approach that we propose allows to replace integrability conditions by a suitable tightness condition. We then provide several applications of this approach ranging from simplified proofs of classical results to characterizations of processes conditioned on first passage time events and changes of measures for jump processes.     

Extension of some large deviation results for posterior distributions

We consider a family of statistical models with positive unknown parameter (which includes some well-known models for censored exponential data) and some statistical models for samples from stationary Gaussian processes. We prove large deviation results for posterior distributions and, in some cases, also for maximum likelihood estimators.     

Limit Laws for Maxima of Contracted Stationary Gaussian Sequences

The principal results of this contribution are the weak and strong limits of maxima of contracted stationary Gaussian random sequences. Due to the random contraction we introduce a modified Berman condition which is sufficient for the weak convergence of the maxima of the scaled sample. Under a stronger assumption the weak convergence is strengthened to almost convergence.     

Exact simulation of Gaussian Time Series from Nonparametric Spectral Estimates with Application to Bootstrapping

The circulant embedding method for generating statistically exact simulations of time series from certain Gaussian distributed stationary processes is attractive because of its advantage in computational speed over a competitive method based upon the modified Cholesky decomposition. We demonstrate that the circulant embedding method can be used to generate simulations from stationary processes whose spectral density functions are dictated by a number of popular nonparametric estimators, including all direct spectral estimators (a special case being the periodogram), certain lag window spectral estimators, all forms of Welch's overlapped segment averaging spectral estimator and all basic multitaper spectral estimators. One application for this technique is to generate time series for bootstrapping various statistics. When used with bootstrapping, our proposed technique avoids some – but not all – of the pitfalls of previously proposed frequency domain methods for simulating time series.     

人口分布的相对变化对我国地区间收入趋同的影响研究

本文利用省级面板数据研究了人口分布的相对变化对我国地区间收入趋同的影响。修正后的 -趋同分析结果显示,1978-2010年,我国地区间总收入和人均收入都表现为趋同模式,但人均收入的趋同速度比总收入趋同速度大约快16%。为了考察这一趋同速度上的差异,我们使用偏离—份额分析法考察了人口分布的相对变化对地区人均收入趋同过程的影响。分析结果表明,地区间人均收入趋同与人口分布的相对变化有显著关系。     

Histogram estimation of radon-nikodym derivatives for strong mixing data

Nonparametric inference for point processes is discussed by way of histograms, which provide a nice tool for the analysis of on-line data. The construction of histograms depends on a sequence of partitions, which we take tc be nonenibedded to allow partitions with sets of equal measure. This presents some theoretical problems, which are addressed with an assumption on the decomposition of second order moments. In another direction, we drop the usual independence assumption on the sample, replacing it by a strong mixing assumption. Under this setting, we study the convergence of the histogram in probability, which depends on approximation conditions between the distributions of random pairs and the product of their marginal distributions, and^almost completely, which is based on the decomposition of the second order moments. This last convergence is stated on two versions according to the assumption of Laplace transforms or the Cramer moment conditions. These are somewhat stronger, but enable us to recover the usual condition on the decrease rate of sets on each partition. In the final section we prove that the finite dimensional distributions converge in distribution to a Gaussian centered vector with a specified covariance.     

Estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point

Recent work on point processes includes studying posterior convergence rates of estimating a continuous intensity function. In this article, convergence rates for estimating the intensity function and change‐point are derived for the more general case of a piecewise continuous intensity function. We study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point using non‐parametric Bayesian methods. An Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to obtain estimates of the intensity function and the change‐point which is illustrated using simulation studies and applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 604–618; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A Non‐Parametric Estimator of the Spectral Density of a Continuous‐Time Gaussian Process Observed at Random Times

Abstract. In numerous applications data are observed at random times and an estimated graph of the spectral density may be relevant for characterizing and explaining phenomena. By using a wavelet analysis, one derives a non‐parametric estimator of the spectral density of a Gaussian process with stationary increments (or a stationary Gaussian process) from the observation of one path at random discrete times. For every positive frequency, this estimator is proved to satisfy a central limit theorem with a convergence rate depending on the roughness of the process and the moment of random durations between successive observations. In the case of stationary Gaussian processes, one can compare this estimator with estimators based on the empirical periodogram. Both estimators reach the same optimal rate of convergence, but the estimator based on wavelet analysis converges for a different class of random times. Simulation examples and an application to biological data are also provided.