建立以经济普查为核心的现代统计制度

回顾近二十年来我国统计方法制度的改革,尤其是近几年来我国统计界针对经济结构的快速变化而对统计方法制度的争论,我们认为应当建立起经济普查为核心的现代统计制度才是统计方法制度改革的必由之路.一、我国目前统计调查的现状1.普查过于频繁.中国经济在改革开放后,尤其在二十世纪末,有了突飞猛进的发展.为此,国家进行了一系列的普查,并且都以统计部门牵头.从1990年的第四次人口普查,1993年的第一次第三产业普查,1995年第三次工业普查,1996年第一次基本单位普查,1997年第一次农业普查,以及2000年正在进行的第五次人口普查,其中还有各种各样的一次性调查如投入产出调查、商品交易市场快速调查等.由于大     

农业普查知识链接

新中国成立以来，我国先后进行了13次全国性的普查工作。其中，人口普查进行了5次、农业普查进行了1次、工业普查（含工矿企业普查）进行了3次、第三产业普查进行了1次、基本单位普查进行了2次，经济普查进行了1次。分别是1950年的第一次全国工业普查，1953年的第一次全国人口普查，1964年的第二次全国人口普查，1982年的第三次全国人口普查，1985年的第二次全国工业普查，1990年的第四次全国人口普查，1993年的全国第三产业普查，1995年的全国第三次工业普查，1996年的第一次全国基本单位普查、1997年的第一次农业普查，2000年的全国第五次人口普查，2001年的第二次全国基本单位普查，2004年第一次全国经济普查。     

前苏联人口普查

前苏联共进行过7次人口普查 ,最近一次是在 1989年 1月11日。1917年十月革命胜利后 ,192 0年 8月2 8日在列宁的倡议下 ,举行全俄人口、农业与工业企业普查。第四次普查是 1959年1月 15日 ,这是战后第一次人口普查 ,普查结果 ,总人口为2 0 882 .7万人。第七次人口普查是 1989年1月 11日 ,普查结果 ,总人口为 2 8671.7万人。多次人口普查都是前苏联中央统计委员会中央统计局组织实施的。前苏联人口普查每隔十年进行一次 ,特别是战后 ,都在接近“0”的年份进行。每次普查都是由苏联部长会议发布临时性决定 ,没有固定的法律。在普查月份上 ,除 1…     

建立以经济普查为核心的现代统计制度

回顾近二十年来我国统计方法制度的改革，尤其是近几年来我国统计界针对经济结构的快速变化而对统计方法制度的争论，我们认为应当建立起以经济普查为核心的现代统计制度才是统计方法制度改革的必由之路。 一、我国目前统计调查查的现状 （１）普查过于频繁。中国经济在改革开放后，尤其在２０世纪末，有了突飞猛进的发展，为此，国家进行了一系列的普查，并且都以统计部门牵头，从１９９０年的第四次人口普查，１９９３年的第一次第三产业普查，１９９５年第三次工业普查，１９９６年第一次基本单位普查，１９９７年第一次农业普查，以及２…     

日本人口普查的基本情况和特点

日本第一次人口普查（日本称为 "国势调查 "）始于 1920年。为了及时了解人口数量和结构的变化情况,法律规定以后每五年进行一次。 2000年日本将进行第十七次人口普查。虽然每五年一次人口普查,但逢“ 5”年份的普查项目少一些,逢“ 0”年份项目多一些,如 1990年 22个项目, 1995年 17个项目,而普查的范围和方法都是一样的。 　　人口普查在中央由总务厅统计局组织实施,这也是统计局的一项最重要的基础统计。在地方则以统计部门为主,由政府有关部门共同组成地方人口普查实施机构（称“实施本部”）来组织。如爱知县 2000年人口普查实…     

经济普查小知识

1.中国一共进行了几次普查?——新中国成立以来,我国已进行了十二次大规模的国情国力调查,其中:五次人口普查、三次工业普查、一次农业普查、一次第三产业普查、二次基本单位普查。 2.为什么要调整国家普查项目和周期安排——为适应我国改革开放和建立社会主义市场     

求真务实 充分发挥垦区统计服务职能

多年来,我局以“内强服务,外树形象”为宗旨,主动适应改革发展需要,发扬求真务实精神,为分局经济发展发挥了积极作用。1986年以来,多次被农业部、省农垦总局评为统计工作先进单位,第一次全国基本单位普查、第五次全国人口普查省级先进单位,第二次全国基本单位普查国家级先进集体。     

全国性普查费用应如何负担

周期性普查是我国基本统计制度之一。每十年中进行的人口普查、三产普查、工业普查、农业普查及逢一、六年份进行的基本单位普查和1%人口抽查调查都是全国性普查，每项普查都是一个全国性的社会系统工程。而决定普查成败的基本条件之一是满足普查需要的经费支持，所以，经费问题是关系普查成败的关键环节，或称“瓶颈”问题。造成这种棘手问题的原因不外乎有以下几方面:第一，中央政府要数字，地方政府拿钱，权利与义务脱节。大凡全国性普查，都是由国家编制指标体系和实施方案，其数据均是满足最高决策之需要而设置的，如第五次人口普查正…     

"老普查"经验谈--历次普查工作的主要经验、教训及建议

建国以来,我国先后进行了12次普查。总的来看,由于各级政府加强组织领导,统计部门牵头实施,相关部门及调查对象积极配合,历次普查进展顺利,成效明显,达到了各项普查的目的。但是,在社会主义市场经济条件下,每次普查都遇到新情况和新问题,需要在实践中加以改进、完善和提高,以便使以后的普查更加顺利地开展。笔者先后参加过县级第三、第四次全国人口普查,市级首次全国农业普查和第五次全国人口普查,负责综合、协调、宣传及后勤保障等工作。今年,又参加第一次全国经济普查,负责全市经济普查的综合、宣传工作。通过市、县两级5次普查,我既有成…     

省人民政府崔广义副秘书长就第二次全国基本单位普查答记者问

第二次全国基本单位普查,是继第五次全国人口普查后的又一次重大的国情国力调查,目前这项工作已进入调查登记阶段。日前,本刊记者车茂娟就第二次全国基本单位普查有关问题,采访了省政府副秘书长、     

Prior distribution assessment for a multivariate normal distribution: an experimental study

A variety of methods of eliciting a prior distribution for a multivariate normal (MVN) distribution have recently been proposed. This paper reports an experiment in which 16 meteorologists used the methods to quantify their opinions about climatology variables. Our results compare prior models and show, in particular, that it can be better to assume the mean and variance of an MVN distribution are independent a priori, rather than to model opinion by the conjugate prior distribution. Using a proper scoring rule, different forms of assessment task are examined and alternative ways of estimating parameters are compared. To quantify opinion about means, it proved preferable to ask directly about the means rather than individual observations while, to quantify opinion about the variance matrix, it was best to ask about deviations from the mean. Further results include recommendations for the way parameters of the prior distribution are estimated.     

Non-conjugate prior distribution assessment for multivariate normal sampling

Elicitation methods are proposed for quantifying expert opinion about a multivariate normal sampling model. The natural conjugate prior family imposes a relationship between the mean vector and the covariance matrix that can portray an expert's opinion poorly. Instead we assume that opinions about the mean and the covariance are independent and suggest innovative forms of question which enable the expert to quantify separately his or her opinion about each of these parameters. Prior opinion about the mean vector is modelled by a multivariate normal distribution and about the covariance matrix by both an inverse Wishart distribution and a generalized inverse-Wishart (GIW) distribution. To construct the latter, results are developed that give insight into the GIW parameters and their interrelationships. Certain of the elicitation methods exploit unconditional assessments as fully as possible, since these can reflect an expert's beliefs more accurately than conditional assessments. Methods are illustrated through an example.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for nonlinear regression models

The maximization and minimization procedure for constructing confidence bands about general regression models is explained. Then, using an existing confidence region about the parameters of a nonlinear regression model and the maximization and minimization procedure, a generally conservative simultaneous confidence band is constructed about the model. Two examples are given, and some problems with the procedure are discussed     

Multivariate lagrange distributions and a subfamiliy

Second order moments about its means, i.e. the variances and covari-ances for multivariate Lagrange distributions are derived in a matrix form. A subfamily of multivariate Lagrange distributions which can be characterized as the distributions of customers served in a busy period in queues with some conditions are considered. Theorems about their probability functions, one of which is a multivariate generalization of a formula by Takà cs(1989). are given and the means and second order moments about its means are considered. As an example, a multivariate Borel-Tanner distribution is derived.     

Dicing with the unknown

There are many things that I am uncertain about, says Tony O'Hagan. Some are merely unknown to me, while others are unknowable. This article is about different kinds of uncertainty, and how the distinction between them impinges on the foundations of Probability and Statistics.     

Using information on realized effects to determine prospective causal effects

The potential outcomes approach to causal inference postulates that each individual has a number of possibly latent outcomes, each of which would be observed under a different treatment. For any individual, some of these outcomes will be unobservable or counterfactual. Information about post-treatment characteristics sometimes allows statements about what would have happened if an individual or group with these characteristics had received a different treatment. These are statements about the realized effects of the treatment. Determining the likely effect of an intervention before making a decision involves inference about effects in populations defined only by characteristics observed before decisions about treatment are made. Information on realized effects can tighten bounds on these prospectively defined measures of the intervention effect. We derive formulae for the bounds and their sampling variances and illustrate these points with data from a hypothetical study of the efficacy of screening mammography.     

中国医疗卫生行业发展影响因素的提炼与甄别

关于卫生行业发展影响因素的现有研究多数基于定性分析，而实证研究较少。为从静态和动态两个角度将经济社会发展对卫生行业发展的制约关系进行量化与应用研究，建立多元线性回归模型和ARMA（1，1）模型将社会经济因素对卫生行业发展的影响程度和影响方向进行提炼与甄别，结果表明：人均收入水平、财政卫生支出是影响中国卫生服务业发展的两个主要因素，城乡收入比和人口老龄化对卫生行业发展的影响还不是很显著。     

关于“在地统计”若干问题的思考

文章从实施"在地统计"改革的动因、改革的本质以及各级统计部门职能、"在地统计"改革中关键问题、数据分割、基数确定以及改革弊端等几方面进行探讨,提出了城市开展"在地统计"改革的具体建议和方法.     

Signed directed acyclic graphs for causal inference

Summary.  Formal rules governing signed edges on causal directed acyclic graphs are described and it is shown how these rules can be useful in reasoning about causality. Specifically, the notions of a monotonic effect, a weak monotonic effect and a signed edge are introduced. Results are developed relating these monotonic effects and signed edges to the sign of the causal effect of an intervention in the presence of intermediate variables. The incorporation of signed edges in the directed acyclic graph causal framework furthermore allows for the development of rules governing the relationship between monotonic effects and the sign of the covariance between two variables. It is shown that when certain assumptions about monotonic effects can be made then these results can be used to draw conclusions about the presence of causal effects even when data are missing on confounding variables.     

The econometrics of female labor supply and children

This is a survey of applied econometric research on the effects of children on female labor supply. Reasons for interest in the topic, and a basic model and terminology, are reviewed. Concerns are raised about the possible endogeneity of child status variables, and about the instrumental variables approach for dealing with this problem. Alternative ways of conceptualizing and estimating child status effects are considered, together with selected empirical evidence. Relevant developments from the household demand literature are summarized. Basic issues of model choice are also discussed.