Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.     

A review of inflation accounting and its economic implications

The purposes of this paper are firstly to identify the problems which inflation creates in the context of conventional accounting methods, secondly to consider the alternative forms of inflation accounting which have been proposed, thirdly to look in more detail at the particular method which is to be adopted in the UK, and finally to consider the effects which that method will have on company results and on broader economic issues.     

Some aspects of inflation and published accounts

Company accounts are at present drafted in an uneasy compromise between different objectives. It is not yet generally appreciated that no single figure or set of figures can sum up the whole financial state of an enterprise. The basic tools of financial management are short and long-run cash projections and the reports of actual flows which monitor these. The problem in drafting annual accounts so that they will help shareholders and others to make decisions is that financial reality requires a look into the future and this in turn calls for subjective judgement. But the more realistic are the accounts in this sense, the less susceptible are they to objective audit. Inflation adds a further level of distortion, but the effects of this can be brought out in a relatively simple way by making corrections based on movements in a general index of prices. Although there are considerable practical difficulties it seems likely that a more fundamental improvement would be the introduction of a ‘current value’ or modified ‘replacement cost’ approach to ordinary accounting in addition to (but not in place of) the general index inflation correction.     

Unternehmensbewertung bei Inflation und Wachstum

The valuation literature partly suggests distinguishing between growth based on retained earnings and growth based on inflation. It is not clear, however, whether inflation leads to growth and how to incorporate inflation into valuation formulas. Our paper analyzes this question using a model of a firm, which makes periodically new investments that are subject to inflation and growth. In contrast to some of the literature, we show that accounting-based valuation formulas must not be adjusted for inflation. Using nominal accounting numbers and historical unadjusted book values leads to the same valuation like discounting cash flows. We conclude that the valuation procedure, suggested by the German Institute of Auditors (IDW) leads to a deviation between accounting-based and cash-flow-based valuation formulas.     

Accountability lost: the rise and fall of double entry

This paper discusses the need for modern accounting systems to meet the criteria of both ‘accountability’ and ‘usefulness’ and argues that the traditional double entry book keeping system serves as a constraint on the achievement of system usefulness. We look at the problems associated with the double entry book keeping system and argue for its replacement with an events accounting system (EAS) model which is more appropriate to current business requirements. We also consider the need to extend the EAS model to more adequately meet the criterion of system usefulness. It is suggested that the integration of an EAS approach with that of a strategic information systems planning approach, facilitates the meeting of this objective.     

Rising prices,financial statements and fundamental research

Adequate consideration cannot be given to the subject of inflation accounting without a rigorous reappraisal of the nature and usefulness of published financial statements. It is argued that much fundamental research is a necessary prerequisite for the evaluation of methods of accounting in a period of inflation. Such research should begin with a consideration of the purposes to be served by the publication of financial statements. A framework is presented for such fundamental research and the results of some preliminary work outlined to assess the usefulness of financial statements in providing information to assist investors to make investment decisions. The use of financial statements by investors for this purpose is one of a number of possible objectives for financial statements.     

Sind die Regeln der externen Unternehmensrechnung auf die kommunale Rechnungslegung übertragbar?

The replacement of public sector accounting methods in municipalities by double-entry bookkeeping has been discussed as well as implemented for some time now. This paper examines whether municipal accounting comprises accounting purposes which are comparable to the purposes of external financial reporting and whether the recognition and valuation rules used in firms can also be applied to municipal accounting. We argue that municipalities and businesses have similar accounting purposes. However, the application of financial reporting, including the corresponding recognition and valuation rules, to municipal accounting requires a critical look for several reasons. First, the concept of accounting income is not suitable in terms of decision-facilitating and decision-influencing in municipalities. Furthermore, it is doubtful how meaningful the valuations of municipal assets in annual financial statements are. The equivalent of providing dividend restrictions based on accounting income is often thought to consist in ensuring intergenerational fairness by asset preservation in municipalities. However, this element of municipal accounting requires rules that are not based on an asymmetrical recording of risks and chances according to the principle of prudence and that take into account the assessment of future generations regarding the benefits of municipal projects.     

基于通货膨胀和风险偏好视角的资产配置研究

不确定条件下的资产配置问题无论对于学术研究还是投资行为都具有重大的理论和实际意义。本文选取广义范围上的现金、股票、债券作为投资者进行资产配置的产品,在CRRA(Constant Relative Risk Aversion)和HARA(Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion)两种偏好假设下,分别求出了投资者效用最大化时的最优财富以及最优资产组合中各资产的权重,并比较分析了两种偏好假设下通货膨胀、风险偏好、投资期限三种因素对资产配置的影响。研究结论表明:通货膨胀会影响股票和债券的风险溢价,进而影响最优资产组合中各资产的权重;股票的权重不会受投资期限的影响,在通货膨胀率和风险偏好不变时,其值始终为一常数,但债券和现金的权重则由投资期限、通货膨胀和风险偏好共同决定;此外,在CRRA和HARA偏好假设下,以上三种因素对资产配置的影响存在较大差异,特别是在HARA框架下存在买空行为。     

A Computational Framework for Prime Implicants Identification in Noncoherent Dynamic Systems

Dynamic reliability methods aim at complementing the capability of traditional static approaches (e.g., event trees [ETs] and fault trees [FTs]) by accounting for the system dynamic behavior and its interactions with the system state transition process. For this, the system dynamics is here described by a time‐dependent model that includes the dependencies with the stochastic transition events. In this article, we present a novel computational framework for dynamic reliability analysis whose objectives are i) accounting for discrete stochastic transition events and ii) identifying the prime implicants (PIs) of the dynamic system. The framework entails adopting a multiple‐valued logic (MVL) to consider stochastic transitions at discretized times. Then, PIs are originally identified by a differential evolution (DE) algorithm that looks for the optimal MVL solution of a covering problem formulated for MVL accident scenarios. For testing the feasibility of the framework, a dynamic noncoherent system composed of five components that can fail at discretized times has been analyzed, showing the applicability of the framework to practical cases.     

基于养老金入市的中国通胀指数债券定价与模拟

随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加剧和养老金缺口的不断扩大，以及通货膨胀上行的压力，养老基金如何投资实现保值增值已经成为关系国家发展和社会稳定的重要课题。在此背景下本文构建了一个两因子连续时间定价模型，求解出风险中性测度下通胀指数债券的理论价格，并通过数值模拟分析了通胀指数债券对通货膨胀的抵御作用，以及名义利率、通货膨胀率、波动率和债券期限等因素对通胀指数债券价格的影响。研究表明：通胀指数债券价格与通货膨胀率、波动率正相关，与利率负相关，且波动率对通胀指数债券的影响系数要大于通货膨胀率，更大于利率；当预期通货膨胀率高于利率时，通胀指数债券会溢价发行，而且期限越长价格越高。本文的研究为养老基金多元化投资规避通胀风险、实现保值增值提供了可能，也为国家推进金融衍生工具的创新提供依据。     

The Phenomenology of Earnings Management within the Confines of Agency Theory

Agents' selective and acceptable reporting of economic events by different accounting systems, compounded by alternative accounting methods and estimates, make financial statements an approximation of economic reality. The tendency to delay accounting recognition of some transactions suggests that financial statements lag behind reality. The difference between reality and imaginary is often referred to as the agency problem. An essential characteristic of this problem is risk attitudes of principals (shareholders) and agents (management). Shareholders are considered risk neutral in their preferences for individual firms. They are in a position to diversify their shareholdings across multiple firms. Agents on the other hand have security and income that are inextricably linked to one firm. It would not be surprising to find agents exhibiting risk aversion in decisions regarding the firm. Immediately one's attention is drawn to the opportunity costs that arise for the risk-neutral shareholders who prefer that agents maximize their returns. The risk differential between agents and principals creates a problem in principal-agent relationship. It is within this framework that supervisory and incentive alignment mechanisms that alter the risk orientation of agents are set up. Powerful incentives act upon agents as they exercise their judgment, particularly when the judgment can trigger a stock market response that will, in turn, affect the firm in numerous ways. The responsibility of agents is to manage earnings. From a principal's perspective not all of the methods used to achieve this goal are equally desirable. Agents can either increase productivity or they can strategically manipulate accounting choices to affect earnings. The latter method need not come with any associated changes in productivity. Consequently, there is misstatement of the financial results and position. The calculus of earnings management is considered within the confines of agents' treatment of risk. Using an Agency Theory framework, this study examines the techniques used by agents to manage and manipulate earnings. The study initially tests the hypothesis whether earnings are really managed. For this purpose two manipulation indices were developed and based upon these indices the phenomenology earnings management was considered.     

基于信息披露文本的上市公司财务困境预测:以中文年报管理层讨论与分析为样本的研究

本文采用文本分析方法研究了中文年报管理层讨论与分析传递的管理层语调能否提供财务困境预测的增量信息、能否提高预测的准确性以及文本内容的信息价值，主要结论为：（1）管理层语调确实为财务困境预测提供了新的信息，能提高财务困境模型的拟合程度和预测能力；（2）管理层语调是对定量财务数据的重要补充，而且这些信息并没有在市场交易价格中得到充分反映；（3）负面语调比净语调具有更高的信息价值；（4）财经文本情感或语调的分析应以基于相关来源财经文本的情感词词典为基础，而直接引入其他领域成熟词典的效果较差。     

Inflation and Welfare

This paper surveys research on the welfare cost of inflation. New estimates are provided, based on U.S. time series for 1900–94, interpreted in a variety of ways. It is estimated that the gain from reducing the annual inflation rate from 10 percent to zero is equivalent to an increase in real income of slightly less than one percent. Using aggregate evidence only, it may not be possible to estimate reliably the gains from reducing inflation further, to a rate consistent with zero nominal interest.     

Dynamic Policies for Optimal LEO Satellite Launches

Low‐earth orbit satellite (LEO) systems continue to provide mobile communication services. The issue of cost containment in system maintenance is a critical factor for continued operation. Satellite finite life‐times follow a stochastic process, and since satellite replenishment cost is the most significant on‐going cost of operation, finding optimal launch policies is of paramount importance. This paper formulates the satellite launch problem as a Markovian decision model that can be solved using dynamic programming. The policy space of the system is enormous and traditional action space dominance rules do not apply. In order to solve the dynamic program for realistic problem sizes, a novel procedure for limiting the state space considered in the dynamic program is developed. The viability of the proposed solution procedure is demonstrated in example problems using realistic system data. The policies derived by the proposed solution procedure are superior to those currently considered by LEO system operators, and result in substantial annual cost savings.     

Overstated Quarterly Earnings and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Revisions*

A primary purpose of accounting is to provide information for decision makers. Accounting misstatements may have a detrimental effect on decision making. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) identifies earnings overstatements as being particularly troublesome to users, as indicated by SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases' emphasis on earnings' overstatement errors. This research investigates how security analysts' forecast revisions are affected by accounting earnings overstatement errors, which become known only after the analysts released their revised annual earnings forecasts. The paper investigates the clarifying role that additional information plays in analysts' revisions. The results show that analysts draw significantly different conclusions from earnings containing (unknown) overstatement errors than from accurately reported earnings. In essence, the analysts identify some of the overstatement, at least on average, by making an adjustment that effectively ignores 21 percent of the overstatement error.     

公司会计年报中社会责任信息的价值研究——基于内容的专家问卷分析

在本研究中,我们选取了会计年报中有代表性特征的17条社会责任信息作为项目,对参加2006年中国会计学会学术年会的专业学者就会计年报中的社会责任信息的决策价值和公共关系价值进行了问卷调查,通过深入的分析我们得出了有意义的结论。本文为该调查的研究报告。     

The social and psychological causes of inflation

It appears that it is no longer possible for the rate of inflation in Britain and other advanced industrial economies to be controlled by the traditional macro- economic reglators, at least within the limits imposed by other politico-economic goals (such as the maintenance of an acceptable level of unemployment). This has led many to look for explanations of inflation beyond economic analysis: in the psychology of wage and salary earners; in the changing class structure of our society; in the changing loci of power and means of exercising power; and in our systems of labour relations and pay determination.The author's organization (PEP—Political and Economic Planning) have just come to the end of a programme of research concerned with the contribution that non- economic perspectives can make to an understanding of the process of inflation. The author has been focusing upon the pressure on pay and has carried out two studies designed to explore the forces contributing to the apparent increase in the demand for pay increases and the conviction that these are legitimate among wage and salary earners. This article describes his findings.     

通货膨胀下的联合库存选址模型研究

研究了通货膨胀对涉及一个供应商、多个候选配送中心和零售商的三级分销网络设计的影响.不同于传统的联合库存选址模型,所研究的模型考虑了整个系统的相关成本的时间价值,其目标是使在一定的通货膨胀率下总的选址、运输和库存成本之和的现值最小.为此,建立了一个非线性的整数规划模型,该模型为无容量约束问题的扩展模型,属于NP-hard问题.提出了3种基于不同编码形式的遗传算法用于求解该模型,并通过不同规模的算例对3种算法进行了有效性的分析和对比.最后,通过对各算例的计算结果的分析,发现随着通货膨胀率的增长,为了使这个分析网络的总成本现值最小,需要增加建立的DC的数量.     

考虑随机利率和通货膨胀的连续时间资产组合选择

通过随机控制技术、Bellman最优性原理和HJB方程研究了通货膨胀、随机利率和交易成本等因素影响下的连续时间投资组合选择的最优化问题，将利率假定为服从Vasicek利率模型的随机过程，应用连续时间的动态均值-方差方法得到符合实际意义的HJB方程，通过多重网格的数值逼近方法求解相应的HJB方程得到双目标优化问题的最优投资策略。用实证方法与国内证券市场上代表性指数基金进行对比研究，发现通货膨胀和利率变动以及经济环境和投资者的异质信念等因素均会对最优策略产生影响，有效前沿会随之发生变化，债券与股票之间的投资比例并不是简单维持固定比例就可以保证总资产最优，拓展了基金分离定理。考虑通货膨胀和交易成本等因素的资产组合选择模型可以实实在在为机构投资者提供客观的实践指导和科学的理论依据。     

民间金融与中国宏观经济——理论机制与实证分析

作为中小企业的主要融资渠道，民间金融对中国经济发展具有重要作用。本文理论探究了民间金融对中国主要宏观经济变量的作用机制，并以此为基础选取全国地区性民间借贷综合利率指数作为民间金融的代理指标，建立VAR模型分析了民间金融对这些宏观经济变量的影响。研究发现：民间金融在理论上能直接以及通过货币政策间接影响经济增长和通货膨胀；而民间金融与货币政策的互动依赖于宏观经济变量之间的联系或正规金融的传导。从实证分析来看，民间金融的发展对经济增长有显著影响，作用方式是先促进后抑制；同时民间金融也能显著影响通货膨胀，其利率升高会加剧通货膨胀；但是民间金融和货币政策无显著关系，这是由于经济增长和通货膨胀没有起到传递作用以及民间金融和正规金融无明显的互动，由此表明民间金融并不能通过货币政策间接影响经济增长和通货膨胀。本文的研究有助于深入理解民间金融与宏观经济的关系，对制定相应的经济政策和管控民间金融风险具有重要的借鉴意义。