Likelihood-based inference for censored linear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

In many studies, the data collected are subject to some upper and lower detection limits. Hence, the responses are either left or right censored. A complication arises when these continuous measures present heavy tails and asymmetrical behavior; simultaneously. For such data structures, we propose a robust-censored linear model based on the scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. The SMSN is an attractive class of asymmetrical heavy-tailed densities that includes the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal and the entire family of scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions as special cases. We propose a fast estimation procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters, using a stochastic approximation of the EM (SAEM) algorithm. This approach allows us to estimate the parameters of interest easily and quickly, obtaining as a byproducts the standard errors, predictions of unobservable values of the response and the log-likelihood function. The proposed methods are illustrated through real data applications and several simulation studies.     

Estimation and diagnostic analysis in skew-generalized-normal regression models

The skew-generalized-normal distribution [Arellano-Valle, RB, Gómez, HW, Quintana, FA. A new class of skew-normal distributions. Comm Statist Theory Methods 2004;33(7):1465–1480] is a class of asymmetric normal distributions, which contains the normal and skew-normal distributions as special cases. The main virtues of this distribution is that it is easy to simulate from and it also supplies a genuine expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we extend the EM algorithm for linear regression models assuming skew-generalized-normal random errors and we develop a diagnostics analyses via local influence and generalized leverage, following Zhu and Lee's approach. This is because Cook's well-known approach would be more complicated to use to obtain measures of local influence. Finally, results obtained for a real data set are reported, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed method.     

Multivariate geometric skew-normal distribution

Azzalini [A class of distributions which include the normal. Scand J Stat. 1985;12:171–178] introduced a skew-normal distribution of which normal distribution is a special case. Recently, Kundu [Geometric skew normal distribution. Sankhya Ser B. 2014;76:167–189] introduced a geometric skew-normal distribution and showed that it has certain advantages over Azzalini's skew-normal distribution. In this paper we discuss about the multivariate geometric skew-normal (MGSN) distribution. It can be used as an alternative to Azzalini's skew-normal distribution. We discuss different properties of the proposed distribution. It is observed that the joint probability density function of the MGSN distribution can take a variety of shapes. Several characterization results have been established. Generation from an MGSN distribution is quite simple, hence the simulation experiments can be performed quite easily. The maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters can be obtained quite conveniently using the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm. We perform some simulation experiments and it is observed that the performances of the proposed EM algorithm are quite satisfactory. Furthermore, the analyses of two data sets have been performed, and it is observed that the proposed methods and the model work very well.     

Nonlinear mixed-effects models with scale mixture of skew-normal distributions

Aiming to avoid the sensitivity in the parameters estimation due to atypical observations or skewness, we develop asymmetric nonlinear regression models with mixed-effects, which provide alternatives to the use of normal distribution and other symmetric distributions. Nonlinear models with mixed-effects are explored in several areas of knowledge, especially when data are correlated, such as longitudinal data, repeated measures and multilevel data, in particular, for their flexibility in dealing with measures of areas such as economics and pharmacokinetics. The random components of the present model are assumed to follow distributions that belong to scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distribution family, that encompasses distributions with light and heavy tails, such as skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-contaminated normal and skew-slash, as well as symmetrical versions of these distributions. For the parameters estimation we obtain a numerical solution via the EM algorithm and its extensions, and the Newton-Raphson algorithm. An application with pharmacokinetic data shows the superiority of the proposed models, for which the skew-contaminated normal distribution has shown to be the most adequate distribution. A brief simulation study points to good properties of the parameter vector estimators obtained by the maximum likelihood method.     

A linear mixed model for analyzing longitudinal skew-normal responses with random dropout

In this paper, a linear mixed effects model is used to fit skewed longitudinal data in the presence of dropout. Two distributional assumptions are considered to produce background for heavy tailed models. One is the linear mixed model with skew-normal random effects and normal errors and the other one is the linear mixed model with skew-normal errors and normal random effects. An ECM algorithm is developed to obtain the parameter estimates. Also an empirical Bayes approach is used for estimating random effects. A simulation study is implemented to investigate the performance of the presented algorithm. Results of an application are also reported where standard errors of estimates are calculated using the Bootstrap approach.     

A robust multivariate measurement error model with skew-normal/independent distributions and Bayesian MCMC implementation

Skew-normal/independent distributions are a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that include the skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in multivariate measurement errors models. We propose the use of skew-normal/independent distributions to model the unobserved value of the covariates (latent variable) and symmetric normal/independent distributions for the random errors term, providing an appealing robust alternative to the usual symmetric process in multivariate measurement errors models. Among the distributions that belong to this class of distributions, we examine univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.     

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally, the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study.     

Linear censored regression models with skew scale mixtures of normal distributions

A special source of difficulty in the statistical analysis is the possibility that some subjects may not have a complete observation of the response variable. Such incomplete observation of the response variable is called censoring. Censorship can occur for a variety of reasons, including limitations of measurement equipment, design of the experiment, and non-occurrence of the event of interest until the end of the study. In the presence of censoring, the dependence of the response variable on the explanatory variables can be explored through regression analysis. In this paper, we propose to examine the censorship problem in context of the class of asymmetric, i.e., we have proposed a linear regression model with censored responses based on skew scale mixtures of normal distributions. We develop a Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm to perform maximum likelihood inference of the parameters in the proposed linear censored regression models with skew scale mixtures of normal distributions. The MCEM algorithm has been discussed with an emphasis on the skew-normal, skew Student-t-normal, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. To examine the performance of the proposed method, we present some simulation studies and analyze a real dataset.     

Time series models based on the unrestricted skew-normal process

The standard location and scale unrestricted (or unified) skew-normal (SUN) family studied by Arellano-Valle and Genton [On fundamental skew distributions. J Multivar Anal. 2005;96:93–116] and Arellano-Valle and Azzalini [On the unification of families of skew-normal distributions. Scand J Stat. 2006;33:561–574], allows the modelling of data which is symmetrically or asymmetrically distributed. The family has a number of advantages suitable for the analysis of stochastic processes such as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models, including being closed under linear combinations, being able to satisfy the consistency condition of Kolmogorov’s theorem and providing the guarantee of the existence of such a SUN stochastic process. The family is able to be represented in a hierarchical form which can be used for the ease of simulation. In addition, it facilitates an EM-type algorithm to estimate the model parameters. The performances and suitability of the proposed model are demonstrated on simulations and using two real data sets in applications.     

Maximum a-posteriori estimation of autoregressive processes based on finite mixtures of scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions

This article investigates maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of autoregressive model parameters when the innovations (errors) follow a finite mixture of distributions that, in turn, are scale-mixtures of skew-normal distributions (SMSN), an attractive and extremely flexible family of probabilistic distributions. The proposed model allows to fit different types of data which can be associated with different noise levels, and provides a robust modelling with great flexibility to accommodate skewness, heavy tails, multimodality and stationarity simultaneously. Also, the existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN random variables allows us to develop an EM-type algorithm to perform the MAP estimates. A comprehensive simulation study is then conducted to illustrate the superior performance of the proposed method. The new methodology is also applied to annual barley yields data.     

On diagnostics in multivariate measurement error models under asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions

In this paper, we discuss the extension of some diagnostic procedures to multivariate measurement error models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions (Lachos et?al., Statistics 44:541?C556, 2010c). This class provides a useful generalization of normal (and skew-normal) measurement error models since the random term distributions cover symmetric, asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions, such as skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal, among others. Inspired by the EM algorithm proposed by Lachos et?al. (Statistics 44:541?C556, 2010c), we develop a local influence analysis for measurement error models, following Zhu and Lee??s (J R Stat Soc B 63:111?C126, 2001) approach. This is because the observed data log-likelihood function associated with the proposed model is somewhat complex and Cook??s well-known approach can be very difficult to apply to achieve local influence measures. Some useful perturbation schemes are also discussed. In addition, a score test for assessing the homogeneity of the skewness parameter vector is presented. Finally, the methodology is exemplified through a real data set, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology.     

Bayesian analysis of skew-normal independent linear mixed models with heterogeneity in the random-effects population

We present a new class of models to fit longitudinal data, obtained with a suitable modification of the classical linear mixed-effects model. For each sample unit, the joint distribution of the random effect and the random error is a finite mixture of scale mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distributions. This extension allows us to model the data in a more flexible way, taking into account skewness, multimodality and discrepant observations at the same time. The scale mixtures of skew-normal form an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, being a flexible alternative to the use of the corresponding symmetric distributions in this type of models. A simple efficient MCMC Gibbs-type algorithm for posterior Bayesian inference is employed. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology, two artificial and two real data sets are analyzed.     

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leão Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in-variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763–771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161–178].     

Parameter estimation for mixtures of skew Laplace normal distributions and application in mixture regression modeling

In this article, we propose mixtures of skew Laplace normal (SLN) distributions to model both skewness and heavy-tailedness in the neous data set as an alternative to mixtures of skew Student-t-normal (STN) distributions. We give the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for the parameters of interest. We also analyze the mixture regression model based on the SLN distribution and provide the ML estimators of the parameters using the EM algorithm. The performance of the proposed mixture model is illustrated by a simulation study and two real data examples.     

Inference and diagnostics in skew scale mixtures of normal regression models

Skew scale mixtures of normal distributions are often used for statistical procedures involving asymmetric data and heavy-tailed. The main virtue of the members of this family of distributions is that they are easy to simulate from and they also supply genuine expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we extend the EM algorithm for linear regression models and we develop diagnostics analyses via local influence and generalized leverage, following Zhu and Lee's approach. This is because Cook's well-known approach cannot be used to obtain measures of local influence. The EM-type algorithm has been discussed with an emphasis on the skew Student-t-normal, skew slash, skew-contaminated normal and skew power-exponential distributions. Finally, results obtained for a real data set are reported, illustrating the usefulness of the proposed method.     

EM algorithm for mixture of skew-normal distributions fitted to grouped data

Grouped data are frequently used in several fields of study. In this work, we use the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for fitting the skew-normal (SN) mixture model to the grouped data. Implementing the EM algorithm requires computing the one-dimensional integrals for each group or class. Our simulation study and real data analyses reveal that the EM algorithm not only always converges but also can be implemented in just a few seconds even when the number of components is large, contrary to the Bayesian paradigm that is computationally expensive. The accuracy of the EM algorithm and superiority of the SN mixture model over the traditional normal mixture model in modelling grouped data are demonstrated through the simulation and three real data illustrations. For implementing the EM algorithm, we use the package called ForestFit developed for R environment available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ForestFit/index.html.     

Order statistics from trivariate normal and -distributions in terms of generalized skew-normal and skew- distributions

We consider here a generalization of the skew-normal distribution, GSN(λ₁,λ₂,ρ), defined through a standard bivariate normal distribution with correlation ρ, which is a special case of the unified multivariate skew-normal distribution studied recently by Arellano-Valle and Azzalini [2006. On the unification of families of skew-normal distributions. Scand. J. Statist. 33, 561–574]. We then present some simple and useful properties of this distribution and also derive its moment generating function in an explicit form. Next, we show that distributions of order statistics from the trivariate normal distribution are mixtures of these generalized skew-normal distributions; thence, using the established properties of the generalized skew-normal distribution, we derive the moment generating functions of order statistics, and also present expressions for means and variances of these order statistics.Next, we introduce a generalized skew-t_ν distribution, which is a special case of the unified multivariate skew-elliptical distribution presented by Arellano-Valle and Azzalini [2006. On the unification of families of skew-normal distributions. Scand. J. Statist. 33, 561–574] and is in fact a three-parameter generalization of Azzalini and Capitanio's [2003. Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t distribution. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 65, 367–389] univariate skew-t_ν form. We then use the relationship between the generalized skew-normal and skew-t_ν distributions to discuss some properties of generalized skew-t_ν as well as distributions of order statistics from bivariate and trivariate t_ν distributions. We show that these distributions of order statistics are indeed mixtures of generalized skew-t_ν distributions, and then use this property to derive explicit expressions for means and variances of these order statistics.     

A multiple group item response theory model with centered skew-normal latent trait distributions under a Bayesian framework

Very often, in psychometric research, as in educational assessment, it is necessary to analyze item response from clustered respondents. The multiple group item response theory (IRT) model proposed by Bock and Zimowski [12] provides a useful framework for analyzing such type of data. In this model, the selected groups of respondents are of specific interest such that group-specific population distributions need to be defined. The usual assumption for parameter estimation in this model, which is that the latent traits are random variables following different symmetric normal distributions, has been questioned in many works found in the IRT literature. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, misleading inference can result. In this paper, we consider that the latent traits for each group follow different skew-normal distributions, under the centered parameterization. We named it skew multiple group IRT model. This modeling extends the works of Azevedo et al. [4], Bazán et al. [11] and Bock and Zimowski [12] (concerning the latent trait distribution). Our approach ensures that the model is identifiable. We propose and compare, concerning convergence issues, two Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms for parameter estimation. A simulation study was performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed model and the selected algorithm concerning convergence issues. Results reveal that the proposed algorithm recovers properly all model parameters. Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of negative asymmetry for some latent trait distributions.     

Bayesian inference for joint location and scale nonlinear models with skew-normal errors

A regression model with skew-normal errors provides a useful extension for ordinary normal regression models when the dataset under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. In this article, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for joint location and scale nonlinear models with skew-normal errors, which relax the normality assumption and include the normal one as a special case. The main advantage of these class of distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation that allows the implementation of MCMC methods to simulate samples from the joint posterior distribution. Finally, simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Testing for normality in linear regression models

The importance of the normal distribution for fitting continuous data is well known. However, in many practical situations data distribution departs from normality. For example, the sample skewness and the sample kurtosis are far away from 0 and 3, respectively, which are nice properties of normal distributions. So, it is important to have formal tests of normality against any alternative. D'Agostino et al. [A suggestion for using powerful and informative tests of normality, Am. Statist. 44 (1990), pp. 316–321] review four procedures Z ²(g ₁), Z ²(g ₂), D and K ² for testing departure from normality. The first two of these procedures are tests of normality against departure due to skewness and kurtosis, respectively. The other two tests are omnibus tests. An alternative to the normal distribution is a class of skew-normal distributions (see [A. Azzalini, A class of distributions which includes the normal ones, Scand. J. Statist. 12 (1985), pp. 171–178]). In this paper, we obtain a score test (W) and a likelihood ratio test (LR) of goodness of fit of the normal regression model against the skew-normal family of regression models. It turns out that the score test is based on the sample skewness and is of very simple form. The performance of these six procedures, in terms of size and power, are compared using simulations. The level properties of the three statistics LR, W and Z ²(g ₁) are similar and close to the nominal level for moderate to large sample sizes. Also, their power properties are similar for small departure from normality due to skewness (γ₁≤0.4). Of these, the score test statistic has a very simple form and computationally much simpler than the other two statistics. The LR statistic, in general, has highest power, although it is computationally much complex as it requires estimates of the parameters under the normal model as well as those under the skew-normal model. So, the score test may be used to test for normality against small departure from normality due to skewness. Otherwise, the likelihood ratio statistic LR should be used as it detects general departure from normality (due to both skewness and kurtosis) with, in general, largest power.