新世纪泰国经济形势展望

目前 ,泰国经济经历金融危机的洗劫后 ,呈现恢复态势。一部分专家、学者、政府官员认为泰国经济已经摆脱了危机的阴影 ,走上了正常的增长轨道。但笔者认为 :泰国并没有走上实质性的恢复道路 ,其金融危机本质是一场发展危机。目前 ,泰国经济只是出现了一定程度的复苏 ,如要恢复到金融危机前的增长 ,则还有一段很长的路要走。由于泰国经济本身仍存在严重隐忧 ,再加上发展中国家发展经济盲目追求高速度的弊病难以消除 ,如不能妥善处理好各种经济问题 ,泰国的经济发展前景将会比两年前预期的要差 ,而且很难避免下一次危机的爆发     

The sociology of ecologically unequal exchange and carbon dioxide emissions, 1960-2005

The author engages the sociological theory of ecologically unequal exchange to assess the extent to which levels of per capita anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are a function of the “vertical flow” of exports to high-income nations. Results of cross-national fixed effects panel model estimates indicate that levels of such emissions are positively associated with the vertical flow of exports, and the relationship is much more pronounced for lower-income countries than for high-income countries. Additional findings suggest that the observed relationship for lower-income nations has grown in magnitude through time, indicating that structural associations between high-income and lower-income countries have become increasingly ecologically unequal, at least in the context of greenhouse gas emissions. These results hold, net of various important controls.     

实现身份认同 重燃生活希望——《走出尘土风沙》成长主题模式解读

成长是青少年文学作品的永恒主题。一部成长小说的情节通常讲述主人公一段特殊的经历,主人公认识到使得这个世界、社会、周围人们以及自己产生重大变化的真理。根据埃里克森关于人的身心发展理论,青少年时期的任务是实现身份认同,避免角色混乱。在凯伦·海瑟的《走出尘土风沙》小说中,主人公比利·乔·科尔比经历了生活的磨难与失去母亲的痛苦。在身份认同与角色混乱的斗争中,她成功地克服了身份危机,实现了身份认同,重新燃起对生活的希望。     

金融危机对河北省宏观经济的影响及其对策研究

由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机迅速波及我国,给河北省的宏观经济产生了重大的影响.文章选取了GDP、PI、失业率和出口总额增长率四项经济指标作为代表,通过对比方式具体分析了河北省宏观经济在国际金融危机中受波及的程度.在此基础上,分析了产生这种影响程度的成因,最后提出了河北省宏观经济有效应对国际金融危机的对策建议,从而为政府经济管理部门的宏观经济调控决策提供参考与借鉴.     

Extended-family resources and racial inequality in the transition to homeownership

We use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine how access to financial resources in the extended family affects the accumulation of wealth among non-owners and how these resources subsequently affect transitioning into homeownership. Our findings show that economic conditions of the extended family have substantial effects on non-owners’ wealth accumulation and likelihood of becoming homeowners, even after adjusting for individual sociodemographic and economic characteristics. We find significant effects of extended-family wealth for both black and white households, but effects of extended-family income insufficiency for blacks only. Consequently, limited access to wealth and greater level of poverty in the extended family hamper blacks’ transition to homeownership. Our results show that the level of extended-family wealth necessary for black householders to equalize their likelihood of becoming homeowners with whites is very high. In fact, our findings indicate that white householders embedded in extended families with no net wealth are just as likely to make the transition to ownership as are black householders with affluent extended families. These findings support arguments related to the importance of extended-family resources in processes of residential attainment but also point to important racial differences in not only levels but also consequences of these family resources.     

财务风险的分析与防范

目前我国国有企业由于底子差,资本金不足,资金短缺,资本结构不合理,负债率过高,企业利息负担过重,严重影响企业的生存和发展.作为企业管理人员,特别是企业财务管理人员应该增强风险意识,了解风险与企业收益的关系,把握时机,发挥风险对企业的有利作用,防范和控制风险对企业产生的不利效果,即财务危机.本文从四个方面论述了引起企业财务危机的原因及其相应的防范措施.     

Does race matter in the search for housing? An exploratory study of search strategies, experiences, and locations

In a departure from most studies of the causes of racial residential segregation that focus on the three main factors of economics, preferences, and discrimination, this paper examines one of the mechanisms through which segregation may be perpetuated: the housing search process itself. Data come from a 2004 face-to-face survey of an area probability sample of African American and white householders living in the three counties of the Detroit metropolitan area (n = 734). These data are used to address three research questions: (1) What are the strategies people use to find housing, and are there racial differences in those strategies? (2) Do whites and African Americans report similar or different experiences in the search for housing? (3) Do the locations in which people search for housing vary by race? Results show that once controlling for the type of search and background characteristics, the search strategies are generally similar for whites and blacks, though more so for buyers than renters: for example, black renters use more informal strategies and networks than do white renters. Analyses that look at the features of these strategies, however, reveal some significant racial differences. Search experiences are similar in terms of length and number of homes inspected, but other objective and subjective questions about the search show blacks at a disadvantage compared to whites: African Americans submit more offers/applications for homes, report more difficulties, and are much more likely to feel they were taken advantage of during the search. The racial characteristics of the communities in which blacks and whites search are quite different: whites mainly search in white communities, while African Americans search in communities with a variety of racial compositions. The paper concludes with a call for further research on housing search strategies, with particular attention to the role of social networks.     

我国商业银行资本充足率顺周期行为研究

次贷危机引发国际金融危机后，金融体系的顺周期问题受到国际社会高度关注，并成为巴塞尔协议Ⅲ要解决的核心问题之一。采用37家商业银行2004—2012年的非平衡面板数据，运用动态面板模型分析我国商业银行的资本充足率顺周期行为，结果表明：我国商业银行与西方发达国家商业银行一样存在顺周期行为；国际金融危机对我国商业银行顺周期行为产生了一定的抑制作用，但是总体上并没有改变其顺周期行为的性质；我国商业银行更加重视在经济下行期对资产充足率的调整，即其顺周期行为在经济上行期和下行期存在非对称效应。我国政府和金融监管部门应积极参与国际社会关于宏观审慎政策的研究和设计，并努力解决我国金融体系的顺周期问题。     

Material hardship and 529 college savings plan participation: The mitigating effects of Child Development Accounts

Experience of material hardship can adversely affect a family’s ability to make long-term investments in children’s development. We examine whether material hardship is associated with one indicator of such investments: participation in a tax-advantaged college savings plan (529 plan). Data for this study come from the SEED for Oklahoma Kids (SEED OK) experiment, an intervention that offers Child Development Accounts with financial incentives to encourage the accumulation of college savings for children from the time of their birth. Results show that material hardship is negatively associated with 529-plan participation, and this association varies by treatment status. At all levels of material hardship, treatment-group mothers are more likely to hold accounts than control-group mothers. These findings suggest that CDAs can be a useful policy tool to support families’ financial preparation for college.     

Black and white homebuyer,homeowner, and household segregation in the United States, 1990–2010

As homeownership has been expanding in the United States over the past several decades, residential segregation between blacks and whites has been declining in most metropolitan areas. However, the degree to which the residential patterns of new homebuyers have mirrored these overall trends in segregation and how the massive increase in home buying has related to changes in segregation has remained largely unexplored. This paper examines the segregation of new black homebuyers from white households, new white homebuyers from black households, and black and white households from each other using Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data from 1992 to 2010 merged with data from the Census and ACS. I find that black homebuyers are less segregated from white households than black homeowners overall and black households in general, providing evidence in support of the spatial assimilation model that would predict better outcomes for homeowners. Also consistent with the spatial assimilation perspective, I found in the multivariate models that increased income parity between blacks and whites and growth in black lending are associated with average declines in black/white household segregation from 1990 to 2010. Although subprime lending was not associated with overall changes in segregation, metropolitan areas with higher percentages of loans to blacks from subprime lenders experienced increases in segregation of both black homeowners from white households as well as white owners from black households.     

电子商务企业:金融危机下的生存与机遇

2008年金融危机使许多国际著名企业陷入破产边缘,但以阿里巴巴为代表的外贸B2B电子商务公司却取得了骄人的业绩.金融危机,全球经济不景气,摆在众多中小企业眼前的是如何面临如此严峻不明朗的经济环境,求新求变改善现状,是关系到的其企业生死存亡的关键所在.电子商务在外向型中小企业订单骤减、客户倒闭情况下,该如何化"危"为"机".     

全球价值链视角下我国产业集群升级的必然性分析——以金融危机中的加工制造业集群为例

产业集群是一种新型的产业组织方式.我国的产业集群多集中于加工制造业领域,作为劳动密集型产业,一直以低成本、低利润、低技术含量、缺乏自主品牌、核心竞争力弱为基本特征.随着国内外形势的发展和经济发展方式的日益演进,制造业集群的困境日益明显.国际金融危机加剧了制造业的生存危机,因此以金融危机为契机,推动制造业产业集群升级,已经迫在眉睫.     

全球金融风暴与大学生就业:危机抑或契机

以人口社会学视角对金融危机背景下的大学生就业问题进行审视发现,金融危机本身这一突发性外部因素对大学生就业会有一定影响,但程度相对有限,只有深化改革、完善市场调节机制,大学生就业难的深层次矛盾或将可能因为这次金融危机获得纾解的时间与机会,而高等教育及其他公共事业由于人口结构变化带来的冲击可能成为未来需要面对的最大风险,因此,教育及其他公共事业投入与发展规划需将宏观人口发展战略纳入其重要组成部分中。     

金融危机形势下对我国入境旅游的思考

发端于美国的金融危机正在向更广泛的地区蔓延,并逐步侵入到实体经济。全球经济一片阴霾,各国公众忧心忡忡,各行各业多受牵连,旅游业首当其冲。我国三大旅游市场中,入境旅游受影响最大。对金融危机发生后直至当前,我国入境旅游受影响情况进行了分析和归纳,并对我国入境旅游的未来发展潜力发展策略进行了探讨。     

中国金融体制改革历程——基于金融机构、金融市场、金融监管视角的叙述

改革开放至今,我国不断深化金融体制改革,至今已经基本形成一整套分工明确、功能互补的金融机构体系、健康平稳的金融市场体系和完善的金融监管体系。金融机构的改革主要是从单一的银行金融机构向多元金融机构发展,从完全国有行政主导金融的金融机构向企业化、市场化金融机构改革。金融市场体系改革从非常狭窄的资金市场发展到多层次的货币市场和资本市场。金融监管改革从作为中央银行的人民银行的统一监管发展到一行三会分业监管。     

后危机时代中国货币政策变迁与通胀治理

全球金融危机爆发后,各国的宽松货币政策操作略有差异,效果也各不相同,但最终都会引起货币供应的变化并极可能导致通货膨胀预期失控的风险。在分析中国应对危机的宽松货币政策引起货币供应增长不均衡及货币政策效果的基础上,提出中国面临货币政策制度变迁的观点,认为双层货币制度安排是实现后危机时代通货膨胀控制目标的现实选择。     

中国工业企业创新能力的地区差异与特点——以金融危机前后的比较为中心

本文根据中国2007—2010年三十一个省、市、自治区大中型工业企业的科技创新资料,运用多元统计分析中的因子分析对中国各地区的企业创新能力进行探索分析,比较了金融危机前后各地区大中型工业企业创新能力的变化和差异,从而揭示出不同地区创新的特点,并提出具有针对性的对策建议。     

Varieties of indebtedness: Financialization and mortgage market institutions in Europe

During the global housing boom that preceded the 2007–9 financial crisis, household debt increased substantially in many European countries, posing a challenge for literature on financialization and the institutional heterogeneity of mortgage markets. This paper examines recent institutional shifts in European mortgage markets and specifies three analytically distinct models of debt accumulation: inclusion, extension and intensity. While existing research has emphasized inclusion (access to homeownership), we show that financial intensification is an important determinant of cross-national variation in debt. We assess the variation in financial intensity in six European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain) using household-level survey data. Our results show that inclusion and expansion explain only part of the cross-national variation in mortgage debt to income ratios. Furthermore, household financial behavior is consistent with the financial intensity model, and variation in the degree of financial intensification explains a substantial portion of the cross-national difference in debt levels.     

金融集聚促进产业结构升级的实证研究 ——以安徽省为例

基于2005-2016年安徽省金融业和产业结构数据，利用区位熵指数测度安徽省金融集聚水平，实证检验安徽省分行业金融集聚对产业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：长期中，银行业集聚表现出积极的推动作用，而证券业集聚虽有一定的推动作用，但作用力度不明显，保险业集聚则表现出抑制效应。短期中，银行业和证券业集聚也存在着积极作用，但没有长期效果显著，而保险业仍表现出一定的抑制作用。     

中印炼油能力及战略石油储备比较研究

2008年金融危机后,世界经济的复苏同时带动了油品消费的逐步增长。中东海湾地区、亚太新兴经济体及部分OPEC成员国的炼油能力开始稳步上升。中国与印度作为世界炼油业新秀,其蓬勃发展不仅带动了亚太地区整体炼油水平的提升,同时促使世界炼油格局产生了重大调整,新兴炼油中心已转移至东方。中印炼油业表现出前所未有的发展空间,由此带动国内战略石油储备建设,在一定层面上保障能源供应的安全。