INCIDENCE AND CONSEQUENCES OF RISK‐TAKING BEHAVIOR IN TOURNAMENTS—EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

We empirically explore the relevance and efficiency of risk‐taking behavior in tournaments. We use data from the National Basketball Association (NBA) and measure risk‐taking by the fraction of three‐point shots in basketball games. We examine how point differences between teams during games affect their subsequent risk‐taking behavior. It is found that teams that are trailing are more likely to increase their use of three‐point shots. We additionally analyze the consequences of this change in behavior. Enhanced risk‐taking is inefficient in the vast majority of cases and is only beneficial if a team is trailing by a rather large margin. We discuss possible explanations for these decision errors. (JEL M5, D81, J30)     

COMPETITIVE BALANCE MEASURES IN SPORTS LEAGUES: THE EFFECTS OF VARIATION IN SEASON LENGTH

Appropriate measurement of competitive balance is central to the economic analysis of professional sports leagues. We examine the distributional properties of the ratio of standard deviations (RSD) of points percentages, the most widely used measure of competitive balance in the sports economics literature, in comparison with other standard‐deviation‐based measures. Simulation methods are used to evaluate the effects of changes in season length on the distributions of competitive balance measures for different distributions of the strengths of teams in a league. The popular RSD measure performs as expected only in cases of perfect balance; if there is imbalance in team strengths, its distribution is sensitive to changes in season length. It is therefore not recommended for comparisons of competitive balance for different sports leagues with different numbers of teams and/or games played. (JEL L83, D63, C63)     

CONSUMPTION BENEFITS OF NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE GAME TRIPS ESTIMATED FROM REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCE DEMAND DATA

This paper examines the demand for hockey game trips among metropolitan and nonmetropolitan residents of Alberta, Canada. Using data on both revealed and stated preference game‐trip behavior from a telephone survey conducted throughout Alberta, we estimate the effect of ticket prices, team quality, arena amenities, and capacity on the latent demand for National Hockey League hockey games. We find that lower ticket prices, higher team quality, and additional capacity encourage attendance. In the status quo scenario, consumer surplus per game is $50 for those who had attended hockey games and about 50% less for those who had not attended games. Exploiting the stated preference data, we develop a number of other consumer surplus estimates. We also include travel costs in the estimation of the demand function and estimate the full value of the game trip considering both ticket prices and travel costs. Sold‐out arenas in Calgary and Edmonton generate annual consumption benefits of $40 and $35 million when only ticket prices are used to calculate consumer surplus (i.e., excluding travel costs). Considering the full‐price consumer surplus for the Calgary Flames of $103 per game trip, the annual consumption benefits may be as high as $82 million. (JEL R22, L83, D61)     

IN‐SEASON HEAD‐COACH DISMISSALS AND THE PERFORMANCE OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAMS

This paper studies the causes and consequences of in‐season changes of the head‐coach of association football teams. We exploit data from the highest level of Dutch professional football during 14 successive seasons. An in‐season change of the head‐coach depends on recent match results and the difference between actual results and expectations as measured using bookmaker data. We find that, after the head‐coach has been replaced, teams perform better than before. However, the performance is also better than before for a control group of coach replacements that did not occur. From this we conclude that replacement of head‐coaches does not improve team performance. (JEL J44, L83)     

REFERENCE‐DEPENDENT PREFERENCES,LOSS AVERSION,AND LIVE GAME ATTENDANCE

We develop a consumer choice model of live attendance at a sporting event with reference‐dependent preferences. The predictions of the model motivate the “uncertainty of outcome hypothesis” (UOH) as well as fans' desire to see upsets and to simply see the home team win games, depending on the importance of the reference‐dependent preferences and loss aversion. A critical review of previous empirical tests of the UOH reveals significant support for models with reference‐dependent preferences, but less support for the UOH. New empirical evidence from Major League Baseball supports the loss aversion version of the model. (JEL L83, D12)     

TEAM RACIAL COMPOSITION AND SPORTS ATTENDANCE

The premise that the racial composition of professional sports teams is a significant factor in explaining paid attendance variability is tested in this article. A model of the general determinants of sports attendance, including the percentage of black players on each team, is developed and applied to longitudinal samples of National Basketball Association teams from 1969 to 1983. This pooled cross-sectional panel model is analyzed within a generalized least-squares framework. While the empirical results are generally consistent with previous estimates for spectator attendance models, team racial composition has no discernible impact upon the level of attendance. Several interaction hypotheses are considered, but when these more complex propositions are evaluated, player race still has no noticeable effect upon attendance. Some implications of these results for race relations and for the structure of salary determination within professional basketball are discussed.     

ON EQUILIBRIUM PLAYER ORDERING IN DYNAMIC TEAM CONTESTS

We study equilibrium player ordering in a dynamic all-pay contest between two teams. The contest lasts two periods, and each team consists of two players who perform in different periods on behalf of their teams. The team with the higher aggregate output wins the prize, which is a public good to its players. Each team has one stronger player and one weaker player, and the two teams can differ in their values of the prize. The teams maximize their winning odds by strategically assigning their players to different periods. We find that when the intrateam heterogeneity in player ability is not excessive, the teams would allocate their stronger players to the late positions as the “anchormen.” When both the intrateam ability gap and interteam heterogeneity in teams' values become excessively large, the team with high value always places its stronger player in the early position, who will place a large bid to preempt late competition. (JEL C7, D7, D8)     

PARENTAL EARNINGS AND CHILDREN'S WELL‐BEING: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURVEY OF INCOME AND PROGRAM PARTICIPATION MATCHED TO SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION EARNINGS DATA

We estimate the association between parental earnings and child well‐being using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to Social Security Administration earnings records. We use very large samples on a wide variety of measures of child well‐being that are also linked to long histories of parent earnings from administrative records. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the use of longer time averages of parent earnings leads to substantially higher estimated associations compared to using only a single year of parent earnings. Using 7‐year time averages of parent earnings, we show, for example, that a doubling of parent earnings is associated with a reduced probability of a teenager reporting being in poor health by close to 50% and a decrease in the likelihood of a child repeating a grade by 39%. We also examine how the associations vary by the timing of when parental earnings are received during childhood. We find suggestive evidence that parental earnings received during the child's school‐going years (ages 6 to 17) are more strongly associated with college enrollment and children's future earnings as adults than parent earnings received earlier or later in the child's life. (JEL J13, I1, I2)     

WINNING GAMES VERSUS WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS: THE ECONOMICS OF FAN INTEREST AND TEAM PERFORMANCE

Championship prospects, as distinct from game-winning prospects, may contribute to a fan's interest in a particular sports team. If so, then both season length and the structure of championship playoffs help determine the equilibrium allocation of playing skills across the teams of a league. Evidence from a regression analysis of team attendance in baseball indicates that ticket demand depends in part on perceived flag-winning prospects. Several patterns in the winning percentages of league leaders in the major U.S. team sports are consistent with the perspective that championship considerations influence the allocation of playing skills.     

LOCAL SPORTS TEAMS AND CELEBRATION OF COMMUNITY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE HOME ADVANTAGE

In major sports events between representatives of different cities, the home team has been known to have a major advantage over the visiting team. Drawing on Durkheim, Schwartz and Barsky (1977) have demonstrated that the social support of the audience is the main determinant of this advantage. In their conclusion, Schwartz and Barsky characterize sports events as a "celebration of local community"(p. 658). This article tests the celebration of community thesis by comparing the relative home advantage among 23 professional basketball teams during the 1981–82 season. Three broad variables are hypothesized to affect a team's home court advantage: (1) provincialism and stability of the city; (2) uniqueness of the home arena; and (3) the tradition of the team. Support is found for all three variables. Not only is there a home advantage in organized sports, but the magnitude of the advantage is itself bound by the social context within which the team performs.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY

The intergenerational elasticity of income is considered one of the best measures of the degree to which a society gives equal opportunity to its members. While much research has been devoted to measuring this reduced‐form parameter, less is known about its underlying structural determinants. Using a model with exogenous talent endowments, endogenous parental investment in children, and endogenous redistributive institutions, we identify the structural parameters that govern the intergenerational elasticity of income. The model clarifies how the interaction between private and collective decisions determines the equilibrium level of social mobility. Two societies with similar economic and biological fundamentals may have vastly different degrees of intergenerational mobility depending on their political institutions. We offer empirical evidence in line with the predictions of the model. We conclude that international comparisons of intergenerational elasticity of income are not particularly informative about fairness without taking into account differences in politico‐economic institutions. (JEL E24, J62, J68, P16)     

HORIZONTAL MERGERS IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS

We examine a merger between two competitors in a Bertrand‐Edgeworth model. We find that the effects of merger depend on the tightness of capacity constraints. The combination of two firms has no price effect if and only if the capacity constraints of all firms are binding both before and after the merger. However, a merger may turn a binding capacity constraint into a slack one, which results in higher prices. In an industry where excess capacity drives the premerger prices of all firms to the marginal cost, a merger may cause prices to rise even though aggregate capacity remains constant. (JEL L13, L40)     

WHICH JOURNAL RANKINGS BEST EXPLAIN ACADEMIC SALARIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

The ranking of an academic journal is important to authors, universities, journal publishers, and research funders. Rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high‐impact journals. Yet even within a rankings‐oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower‐ranked journals are down‐weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered. Moreover, since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references, whether of their own volition or prompted by editors, than it is to ignore relevant ones, rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated. In contrast, when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring, promotion, and salary decisions, the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences. We therefore look to the academic labor market, using data on economists in the University of California system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary. We test amongst various sets of journal rankings, and publication discount rates, to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market. (JEL A14, I23, J44)     

THE EMERGING ROLE OF THE MEDICAL SOCIOLOGIST IN PALLIATIVE CARE SETTINGS

The demographics of a rapidly aging society and the chronic nature of contemporary illness intersect in the twenty-first century to confront medicine with the challenge of reenvisioning health care at life's end. Using analytic, interpretive, and reflexive tools, the medical sociologist can assist health care teams in improving quality of life terminally ill patients and their caregivers. In this article, we explore the role of the medical sociologist in palliative care settings, discuss ways to integrate that role into the day-to-day processes of palliative medicine, and identify three areas of intervention where medical sociologists can bring a unique perspective to end-of-life settings. We conclude by examining impediments to the inclusion of the medical sociologist on the clinical team and discussing how these barriers can be addressed.     

THE EFFECTS OF AUTOMOBILE RECALLS ON THE SEVERITY OF ACCIDENTS

The number of automobile recalls in the United States has substantially increased over the last two decades, and after a record of over 30 million cars recalled in 2004, in the last few years it has consistently reached between 15 and 17 million, and in 2010 alone 20 million cars were recalled. Toyota's recall crisis in 2010 illustrates how recalls can affect a large number of American drivers and the defects connected to them can result in loss of life and serious accidents. However, in spite of the increase in public concern over recalls and the loss of property and life attached to them, there is no empirical evidence of the effect of vehicle recalls on safety. This paper investigates whether vehicle recalls reduce accidental harm measured by the severity of injuries in vehicle accidents. The results of our analysis show that if a recall for a new‐year model is issued, then the severity of injuries of accidents continuously diminishes during the first year after the recall, something we do not find among cars not subject to recalls. This is because defects are repaired over time but also because drivers react by driving more carefully until the defects are fixed. To minimize the losses attached to having dangerously defective cars on our roads, both quick and timely recall issuance are needed and more detailed information on defects should be delivered to owners of defective vehicles. The latter can be made possible through simple but important policy changes by the U.S. government regarding recall information sharing with drivers and insurance companies. (JEL L51, L62)     

YOU ARE CLOSE TO YOUR RIVAL AND EVERYBODY HATES A WINNER: A STUDY OF RIVALRY IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

We use a recent survey of college (American) football fans to study rivalry, where we find the most intense rivalries occur between in‐state teams. Relatedly, within a conference fans are more likely to target rivalrous feelings toward the winningest teams and, in Bowl Championship Series conferences, teams who have been conference members for a longer proportion of time. While the stakes are different from other settings, such as warring nations, college football teams compete for resources and often have loyal followings with strong emotional ties. Thus, examining rivalrous feeling in this setting provides insights into rivalry more generally besides being of interest in its own right as college football is a multi‐billion dollar industry. (JEL L22, L83)     

WILLFUL BLINDNESS: THE INEFFICIENT REWARD STRUCTURE IN ACADEMIC RESEARCH

This article examines how economics departments judge research articles and assign credit to authors. It begins with a demonstration that only strictly prorated author credit induces researchers to choose e?cient sized teams. Nevertheless, survey evidence reveals that most economics departments only partially prorate authorship credit, implying excessive coauthorship. Indeed, a half‐century increase in coauthorship may be better explained by incomplete proration than by any increased specialization among authors. A possible explanation for the reliance on incomplete proration is the self‐interest of economists who are more likely to engage coauthorship—full professors. The self‐interest of senior faculty may also explain the relatively small role given to citations in senior promotions. A rational response by economists to the under‐proration of author credit is to engage in false authorship. Although false authorship is of dubious ethical status, it may have the perverse impact of improving the e?ciency of team production. Grossly excessive coauthorship, where little attention is paid to most authors listed on a paper, as found in some other academic disciplines, may be the path down which economics is headed if the reward structure is not altered. (JEL A14, O30, I23)     

THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL FORCES: EVIDENCE FROM THE BEHAVIOR OF FOOTBALL REFEREES

Analyzing the neutrality of referees during 12 German premier league (1. Bundesliga) soccer seasons, this paper documents evidence that social forces influence agents’ decisions. Referees, who are appointed to be impartial, tend to favor the home team by systematically awarding more stoppage time in close matches in which the home team is behind. They also favor the home team in decisions to award goals and penalty kicks. Crowd composition affects the size and the direction of the bias, and the crowd’s proximity to the field is related to the quality of refereeing. (JEL J00)     

LEAGUE‐LEVEL ATTENDANCE AND OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY IN U.S. PRO SPORTS LEAGUES

We extend the breakpoint literature regarding annual league‐level attendance and the impact of outcome uncertainty to the National Basketball Association, National Football League, and National Hockey League. As our measures are different than past work on baseball, we also apply our model to the American and National Leagues. Attendance series for each league under consideration are not stationary overall, but are stationary with break points. No form of outcome uncertainty (game, play‐off, or across seasons) matters for attendance in hockey or baseball regardless of which game uncertainty variable is used. Under the measure of game uncertainty that recommends itself for football, only play‐off uncertainty matters for attendance. Whether outcome uncertainty matters for basketball depends on the measure of game uncertainty. Situational similarities in the break points across leagues suggest general areas for future research. (JEL L83, C22)     

Joining up children's services: safeguarding children in multi‐disciplinary teams

In this article we reflect on the complexity and the contested nature of the roles of multi‐disciplinary teams working with children. This is an increasingly important issue in the current UK child welfare policy environment. The article uses the theories of Etienne Wenger to understand data gathered from five multi‐disciplinary teams working with children. We explore key issues relating to location; information sharing; models of understanding; and professional identities. We hope to demonstrate that the teams addressed tensions creatively through their engagement with diversity while at the same time developing common team values. We argue that effective strategies for making multi‐disciplinary teams work will combine inter‐agency issues with internal team‐specific aspects. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.