Dynamic awareness and zero probability beliefs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social comparison effects are less robust. We do not find any evidence for peer effects (through social-loss aversion or imitation) on insurance take-up. In contrast, we find support for the prediction that people underweight others’ relevant information in their own decision making.     

Insurance with undiversifiable risk: Contract structure and organizational form of insurance firms

Previous explanations of the contract choice and organizational form of insurance firms do not explain, by themselves, the recent proliferation of mutuals and new contract designs. We first present risk-bearing arguments to address these phenomena. We present two forms of insurance. The first is a conventional transfer of risk whereas the second decomposes risk between idiosyncratic and nonidiosyncratic. We show that the latter form leads to more active trade in insurance markets with correlated exposures. Moreover, the decomposed form dominates the simple transfer. These results qualify and extend the work of Borch (1962) and Marshall (1974). Market responses to the recent liability insurance crisis are compatible with these predictions.This research was conducted while G. Dionne was visiting the University of Pennsylvania under grants from Huebner Foundation and CRSH Canada. N. Doherty wishes to acknowledge with thanks support from the National Science Foundation under grant #88-09299. We wish to thank Patricia Danzon, Beverly Dahlby, Claude Fluet, James Garven, Scott Harrington, Howard Kunreuther, Clifford Smith Jr., George Theall, Kip Viscusi, and a referee for helpful comments.     

The State Children's Health Insurance Program: Participation and Substitution

We examine the effects of SCHIP enactment by focusing on two policy concerns: take-up and crowd-out. The literature has examined how income eligibility expansions affect the type of children's insurance coverage. However, states jointly implemented various policy instruments. The results in previous works do not control for this variety. We analyze how changes in several SCHIP factors affected decisions regarding health insurance coverage. Our analysis indicates that the estimates in the literature may have combined the effects of various policy factors. In distinguishing individual policy factors, our results provide useful information for designing effective public health insurance programs.     

New avenues to be opened for social protection in the Arab world: the case of Egypt*

This article looks at social protection in the Arab world. Giving the example of Egypt, it asks why poverty is so widespread and why – despite the country's numerous social protection systems – social risks are a major contributing factor to it. It concludes that reforms are due. The existing systems are well funded but inefficient and more to the benefit of the better‐off than the poor. A reform approach is proposed which builds on both conventional and more innovative strategies: campaigns should be launched to raise public awareness of social risks; social assistance spending should be increased; and the operating public pension schemes should be reformed. At the same time, new avenues have to be opened to meet the specific needs of informal sector workers who have extreme difficulty in being covered by social insurance or social assistance. To this purpose, micro‐insurance is a promising approach for the Arab‐world region.     

The advantages and disadvantages of the contribution base in targeting benefits: A social analysis of the insurance scheme in the United Kingdom

This article assesses the role which social insurance plays within the social security scheme in contemporary Great Britain, and presents this analysis for comparison and assessment to an international audience. The structure of the Beveridge scheme is briefly outlined and adaptations to it discussed. The scheme's failure to provide comprehensive social protection in Great Britain is then explained and the consequent drift towards social assistance is noted. A contrast is drawn between the advantages and disadvantages of insurance protection from a social policy perspective. Finally, the prospects for social insurance are briefly appraised and compared with alternative possible models for social security. From this it is concluded that, despite its past failings, even in Great Britain the prospects for social insurance protection remain strong.     

The economics of adding and subdividing independent risks: Some comparative statics results

In this paper we address the problem of determining whether adding independent risks or subdividing them is a good substitute for insurance. Despite the fact that accepting more i.i.d. risks increases total risk, it is shown that some risk-averse decision makers can rationally reduce their demand for insurance by doing so. Similarly, a better diversified portfolio of i.i.d. risky assets can rationally be more insured, even if diversification is a risk-reduction scheme. We derive conditions sufficient to obtain unambiguous comparative statics results. Assuming that absolute risk aversion is decreasing and that the fourth derivative of the utility function is positive, we show that diversification is an exceptionally good substitute for insurance. Under the same conditions, adding independent risks to wealth reduces the demand for insurance on each unit.     

Modernizing social security: Changing responsibilities and individual choice

Social security needs to be reformed to make it sustainable. We argue that it is necessary to consider not only system characteristics (such as the level and duration of benefits, insured population), but also the division of responsibilities. Social security is not solely a state matter; firms, trade unions, industrial sectors and the individual play a role as well. As social risks are to some extent endogenous, insurance ought to be taken care of at the level at which the risk can be most directly influenced in order to improve efficiency. This may partly take place within the public system, for example through risk rating. Alternatives would include shifting from collective to more individual arrangements, prominent examples being multipillar systems and savings accounts. Multipillar systems mainly imply a new division of responsibilities, taking the endogeneity of social risks and the implications of modern life cycles into account. At the same time they offer more individual choice. Savings accounts reduce moral hazard without affecting individual choice. Either way, in reforming social security a balance needs to be found between competing goals or principles: between equity and efficiency, between solidarity and freedom of choice, between the risks of moral hazard and adverse selection. This choice is difficult because social security is not only about "security". It is an important part of the way we organize our society and embodies many of society's values.     

Do-It-Yourself Social Policy: Searching for a New Paradigm?

One of the most significant trends of recent decades has been the growing importance of do-it-yourself social policy: i.e. individuals constructing their own welfare mix both within the public sector and in private markets. This paper argues that this challenges the traditional top-down bias of social policy studies and requires a shift of focus within the discipline. The implications for normative theory, research strategy and policy analysis are explored. Some of the arguments for and against choice as a guiding principle are sketched out; some existing research on benefit take-up and choice in education and health is reviewed and the case for moving away from the economist's simple model of rationality is put forward. Finally, we argue, there should be more emphasis in social policy on developing a better understanding of the way in which individuals take their decisions, the context of public policy within which they act and the interaction between the two.     

Exit from and re‐entry into social assistance benefit in Belgium among people with migration background and the native‐born

Whereas several studies have examined the timing of exit from social assistance, little is known about the exit destinations after social assistance and whether these entail different risks of re‐entry into social assistance. Using administrative data, we studied 13,552 people with various migration backgrounds who entered social assistance in Belgium in 2004 or 2005. We tracked their social assistance spell(s) and the income source(s) after exit on a quarterly basis over 4 years, using random‐effects hazard models. We found that one‐third of the beneficiaries exited from first‐spells to work, whereas 14% left to active labour market programmes (ALMPs) and 16% to social insurance benefits. About a third re‐entered social assistance, in particular after short work exits. Participation in ALMPs and social insurance benefit receipt was less common among beneficiaries with migration background compared with native‐born and these exits led less frequently to re‐entry than did exits to paid employment.     

Loss aversion leading to advantageous selection

Some insurance markets are characterized by “advantageous selection”, that is, ex-post risk and coverage are negatively correlated. We show that expectation-based loss aversion as in K?szegi and Rabin (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(4), 1133–1165, 2006; The American Economic Review, 97(4), 1047–1073, 2007) provides a natural explanation for this phenomenon in environments in which risk aversion models do not, e.g., when agents face modest-scale risks and/or in absence of moral hazard. More exposure to risk has two competing effects on an agent’s willingness to pay for insurance: a positive effect, as in standard expected utility models; and a negative one, due to a reference effect. We determine conditions under which an insurance provider optimally sets a high price at which only low risk agents buy.     

From Social Insurance to Social Assistance

In attempting to establish a social security system that would function to smooth the transition from a planned to market economy, the government of China has, for most of the time in the past decades, focused its efforts on setting up social insurance programs in the urban areas. Along with the emergence of urban poverty since the mid 1990s, the emphasis of the government has shifted to means-tested social assistance programs as the major means to combat poverty and maintain social stability. However, with the absence of more equitable social and economic policies that can protect people against the many risks associated with a market economy, the role of social assistance is very limited.     

Risk awareness and adverse selection in catastrophe insurance: Evidence from California’s residential earthquake insurance market

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - How does catastrophe-risk awareness affect purchase decisions and selection patterns in the insurance market? I study this issue using data on take-up rates of...     

Combining Welfare-to-Work Measures with Tax credits: A New Hybrid Approach to Social Security in the United Kingdom

The changes described in this article reflect a shift in social security away from social insurance and towards a mixture of social assistance, occupational or private insurance and tax credits. It suggests that what is new and distinctive about UK social security policy is the way in which a new strategy has been forged by linking the New Deal, which provides job opportunities for people who are not in employment but can often only offer them low-paid jobs, with tax credit schemes, which provide in-work benefits and are designed to ensure that, if necessary, people accept poorly paid employment.     

Social risks and public pension in South Korea

This study investigated how traditional and new social risks have emerged in South Korea and how policies have coped with them, focusing on the public pension program. Using national statistics data and publicly published government reports, factors such as marital status, economic activity, and the insurance trend of the public pension by age and gender for the last decade were examined. Main results are as follows. Women's labor force participation has slightly increased; however, career discontinuity remains and new family risks have increased. Second, women's public pension coverage as a percentage of the employment rate has substantially increased, implying that old labor market risks have largely been reduced for female workers. Third, the public pension insured rate among male workers has decreased to a small degree, which implies that new labor market risks are increasing for male workers. Consequently, the gender gap in risk has been reduced; however, policies established to deal with new risks have introduced some gender effects     

Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence

This paper presents a series of experiments that confront subjects with low probability, high loss situations. A rich parameter set is examined and we find subjects respond to low probability, high loss risks in predictable ways. As loss events become more likely, or loss amounts get larger, or the cost of insurance falls, subjects are more likely to buy indemnifying insurance, even for the class of low probability risks that usually presents problems for standard expected utility theory. A novel application of Cameron's method to estimate willingness to pay from dichotomous choice responses allows us to estimate willingness to pay for insurance. We do not observe the bimodal distribution of bids found in other studies of similar risk situations.     

The Swiss social insurance system: Social security and grass‐roots democracy

The foundations of Switzerland's social insurance system can be traced to 1890 when a public referendum voted the inclusion of an article into the Federal Constitution that gave the executive the task of creating a sickness and accident insurance scheme. Currently, as in other European countries, the Swiss social insurance system is facing challenges as a result of rising health costs and demographic shifts, which are placing a growing burden on both public finances and private households. To reach policy decisions to address these challenges, the Swiss system is distinguishable from those of its European neighbours because of a continuing tradition of political decision‐making based on grass‐roots democracy: through referenda, the Swiss people remain directly responsible for the development of the national social insurance system. Importantly, not only might this unique feature of Swiss democracy lead the Swiss people more readily to accept and identify with their social insurance system but it may offer a sound democratic base upon which to build a consensual approach to address the policy challenges that lie ahead.     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

Developmentalism in Korea: A Useful Tool for Explaining the Role of Social Security in the Reduction of Poverty and Inequality

It is conventional wisdom that universalism is more effective than selectivism in addressing the problems of poverty and inequality. In providing income security for the elderly, retirement pensions calculated on the principle of social insurance represent universalism and social assistance benefits on the basis of means-test selectivism. Korea has both a contributory pension scheme and social assistance program for the elderly. The social assistance began in 1961. The contributory scheme, the National Pension, started belatedly in 1988 and its coverage expanded to the entire population in 1999. We can, therefore, expect that the social security system, especially the universal pension scheme based on social insurance, has some positive impacts on the reduction of poverty and inequality. This paper, however, raises doubt as to the conventional wisdom and thus reviews the developmental process of the Korean social security system for the aged. It was found that the dominant ideological controversy revolved, not around universalism versus selectivism, but around the option between developmentalism and other strategies. Our empirical analysis showed that the public pension had little impact on the reduction of poverty and inequality, particularly in comparison with advanced welfare states. This is not surprising at all, since poverty eradication and redistribution were not major objectives of the Korean social security system. The controversy between universalism and selectivism was relatively unfamiliar in the policy process of the Korean social security system. Even though the redistributive effect is getting larger as the National Pension system becomes mature, the developmentalist model has been proved to be a more useful tool for explaining the limited role of Korean social security.     

Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world

We examine the risks and management of natural disasters. A benefit-cost framework focuses attention on (1) designing control structures, such as dams and levees, and mitigation policies, such as construction standards, to protect lives and property against small and medium, rather than large sized natural disasters; and (2) warning and evacuation to save lives for large natural disasters. Providing information rather than command solutions generally enhances social benefits, if people understand the risks and bear the expected costs. Requiring actuarially fair insurance simultaneously provides information and has individuals bear the expected costs.     

Pension insurance and the participation of private enterprise

One of the principal developments of our time in the field of social security policy has been the growing importance of the desire of individuals for greater economic security in their old age. This desire has in its turn given rise to an increasing tendency to seek benefits complementing those offered or promised by public social insurance schemes. In Europe and North America private enterprise has for many years played an active role in the field of complementary provident arrangements; but in the countries of Latin America interest in schemes of this kind has only begun to develop in recent years. A study of the present situation shows a need to establish concepts permitting an objective approach to the problem of whether — and ultimately, how — a modern State can succeed in striking a satisfactory balance between public intervention and private enterprise in the field of provision against deferred risks or, if it cannot do so, what the prospects are for the securing of a better future by present-day society and how that goal could be achieved. A reform of provident systems in Latin America is inevitable. The difficulty lies in determining how to reorganize public systems so as to ensure their continuance and to entrust them with the principal role in ensuring social solidarity while at the same time opening up opportunities for free private complementary insurance.