中国南海海洋政治战略研究——论南海争端中的中国作为

就中国目前的海洋政治形势而言,南海争端已成为全球热点.从南海争端的问题属性来看,这是一个多元的、系统化的、结构化不良的政治问题,是一个重要而紧急的战略问题.从南海争端中的战略格局来看,中国面临内外双重战略压力,面临着战争与和平的两难选择.为此,中国应采取系统性的战略措施积极应对南海争端,站在国家战略角度从各层面、各领域展开实质性行动,在做好积极维护主权准备的同时,争取用政治与外交手段和平解决南海争端.     

France and the First Sino-Japanese War, 1894-1895

Around the time of the outbreak of the First Sino-Japanese War, France reiterated that it had no direct interest in the Korean issue, and professed to be an onlooker. But from the very beginning, in fact, France viewed the war as an opportunity to consolidate its alliance with Russia and further encroach on China’s southwest frontiers; it was therefore happy to see war break out between China and Japan, and took Russia’s position on stopping Britain from playing a dominant role in mediation between them. As the outcome of the war became clear, exposing Japan’s ambition to invade China, France turned from its wait-and-see attitude to intervention, taking an active part in the peacemaking activities of Russia, Britain and France and the triple intervention of Russia, France and Germany. In so doing, it attempted to safeguard general European interests and consolidate its alliance with Russia, as well as preventing Japan from replacing Europe as the dominant force in China. At the same time, it demanded a quid pro quo from the victim. During negotiation over the return of the Liaodong Peninsula, France put aside its conflicts with its old enemy Germany and endeavored to mediate in disputes between Germany and Russia so as to maintain concerted action under the triple intervention. It proposed to sacrifice the interests of China to satisfy the wishes of Japan and Russia for a swift resolution of the issue of the Liaodong Peninsula.     

尼赫鲁政府的对华边界政策：分析框架

理解1949～1962年印度尼赫鲁政府的对华边界政策需要一个整合性的分析框架。它涵盖三条线索：当时在中印关系中日益凸显的西藏问题、印度国内政治和反对派,以及主要决策者尼赫鲁的认知与心理。上述因素交织在一起,直接催生了尼赫鲁政府在中印边界问题上变化的立场、目标以及追求目标的途径和行为方式。中印争议边界至今仍然处于悬而未决的状态,显示出解决这一问题的复杂性与艰巨性。对此既应该从各层面、更需要整体地认识和理解其历史和现实。     

应对气候变化措施同WTO原则的冲突——理论与实证分析

与贸易有关的环境措施在GATT/WTO法律层面持续引起学者们对贸易与环境问题的激烈争论。而气候变化博弈中,WTO成员方采取应对气候变化的单边措施,可能违反了WTO的非歧视原则和其他若干规则。对从未做出碳减排承诺的国家进口的产品征收反补贴税可能违反SCM协定,TRIPs协定很难成功适用于气候友好型技术的转让与应用之中,这都是气候变化下WTO争端问题凸显的主因。本文通过探讨碳关税等应对气候变化措施与WTO的一致性,对GATT/WTO关于贸易与环境的争端解决案例进行解读,探寻气候变化下WTO争端解决的未来走向,对我国频发的贸易摩擦提出应对策略。     

国际海洋争端解决中的“不应诉”问题

争端当事国在国际诉讼中采取"不应诉"策略并非"离经叛道"之举,而是有着更深层次的战略考量。国际法院化解"不应诉"危机的经验表明,争端当事国并无应诉的法律义务,且并不必然导致不利判决。国际法院仍应恪守当事方程序平等原则,在确定存在管辖权的前提下,对案件的事实和法律问题作出令人信服的裁决。中国和俄罗斯近期选择不应诉"南海仲裁案"和"北极日出号案"的事例表明,海洋争端解决机制的强制性与例外规定之间的矛盾势必导致"不应诉"现象。在"不应诉"的尴尬情境下,国际仲裁庭的正当性、独立性、公正性和实效性面临考验。为避免"不应诉"危机的加深,国际仲裁庭宜采取"司法自限"这一路径,在案件的管辖权问题和实体问题方面作出更为谨慎的裁决。     

The Individual's Health Is the Health of Society

Recently, a fact characterizing a fundamentally new phenomenon for Russia—net depopulation—has been repeated again and again in the mass media (and not only in the mass media). In the last quarter of the past year, our mortality rate was 11.3 per thousand, and the birth rate was only 11.2, i.e., there was a "negative growth." The phenomenon is serious enough in itself and has many aspects, from demographic to economic. It is natural that it should attract attention. However, the inclination to link it directly only with actions of the moment (or with the lack of action), to explain it by the liberalization of prices, etc., is annoying. The problem is much more long-term and complicated. The issue is not so much that the birth rate is declining (this is a worldwide tendency, and the birth rate in Russia is still much higher than in most European countries) as that the mortality rate is rising (this contradicts the same trends, forewarning us of trouble). The ultimate question is one of the stability of this negative process, of the potential, the reserve of health present in society as a whole and in each individual.     

论东海问题本质与解决思路

中日两国举行的东海问题原则共识政府间换文谈判,是落实两国政府首脑达成共识的具体措施。即使两国经过谈判取得一定的成绩,但东海问题的全面解决仍很遥远。因为两国针对东海问题的立场与主张严重对立,无法消弭。同时,换文谈判的依据《原则共识》只是一个局部性和过渡性的安排,特别是其存在根本性的缺陷,主要为没有界定东海问题的内涵、没有对钓鱼岛列屿问题作出交代,需要补正。而东海问题的本质是钓鱼岛列屿争议问题。为此,本文指出了东海问题的基本内涵,分析了针对东海问题的歧见,并探讨了解决东海问题包括钓鱼岛列屿问题的路径,以期对认识和理解东海问题的本质有所帮助,并望有助于东海问题的最终解决。     

中印边界问题的缘起、谈判进程与未来出路

中印边界问题是历史遗留的,在过去的六十多年里始终困扰着中印双边关系的发展。中印边界成为复杂问题,有诸多因素的推动,并经历了四个阶段。20世纪50年代以来,两国关于边界是否正式划分等进行了长期的辨争。随着解决边界问题的磋商机制不断深化,中印两国确立了解决边界问题的“三步走”路线图,保持了边境地区长期的和平与安宁。目前,边界问题仍是影响中印政治互信的主要障碍,其解决面,临诸多困难。     

翻译与差异性:马克思文本研究中的一个问题

随着现代哲学尤其是解释学、解构理论、分析哲学的发展,翻译作为哲学研究的话题日益受到学者们的关注,而从翻译的角度切入马克思文本的研究也逐渐成为马克思主义哲学研究领域的一个新的理论生长点。对于翻译中出现的差异性,不仅要考虑其语言学的维度,也要还原到具体的历史语境中寻找其政治及文化语境的影响。     

The Role of Consultative Democracy under the Constitutional Framework and the Associated Rule of Law*

The logical sequence of China’s state governance is “governing party—consultative conferences—people’s congresses—the people.” The “governing party—consultative conferences” link in the chain involves political consultation through people’s consultative conferences. The “governing party—consultative conferences—people’s congresses” link involves a process of obtaining legitimacy for the Party’s views based on political consultations which are then translated into the national will by the system of people’s congresses. The “people’s congresses—the people” link involves the two-pronged logic of elections and governing the country according to law. The “governing party—the people” link is an illustration of the party’s mass line, which essentially involves social consultation. Consultative democracy usually includes the political consultation in the “governing party—consultative conferences” link and the social consultation in the “governing party—the people” link in the chain, both of which are connected through the system of people’s congresses. This logically determines the inner relations between the Party’s leadership, consultative democracy and the people’s congress form of representative democracy and shapes the institutionalization of consultative democracy. That is, in the process of democratic decision-making, a circular system consisting of “political consultation—legislative consultation—social consultation” is created to guide development of the actual system.     

“不完全合作”：NGO联合行动策略——以“5·12”汶川地震NGO联合救灾为例

中国NGO的发展策略越来越引起广泛关注,本文以“5·12”汶川地震NGO联合救灾行动为例,着重探讨当前中国NGO联合行动的“不完全合作”问题。本文认为,不完全合作是NGO在面对内外部制度约束和组织限制条件下的主动策略性行动选择,具体策略机制表现为联合行动目标的自我约束、有限的组织参与和弹性的组织形式等三方面。NGO不完全合作策略的产生是由外部政治机会空间有限、组织关系网络的非正式性,以及组织合作意愿不完全等组织内外部因素的共同形塑而成。本文还指出,在当前整体限制性的制度环境下,正是这种不完全合作策略使得NGO联合救灾在面对各种挑战的情况下成为可能,但也因为合作的不完全性,使得联合行动难以持续。NGO进一步的持续合作还需要新的组织模式。     

A theory of “popular political legitimation”: A dual-process model approach to legitimation and political socialization

How do everyday people—or actors who do not occupy positions of political authority—legitimate political systems? Responding to this question, I use work from sociology, political science, and cognitive science to build a theory of “Popular Political Legitimation” (PPL)—defined as everyday people's legitimation of a political system. To answer how PPL happens, we must answer two sub-questions that address legitimacy as a normative phenomenon: 1) What are the processes of socialization through which individuals learn the norms, widely held beliefs, and values that legitimate a political system? 2) How do individuals subsequently use these norms, widely held beliefs, and/or values in their own legitimations of a political system? Thus, we see that a model of socialization is central to understanding how PPL happens. I proceed in four steps. First, I review the literature on political legitimation. Next, I review the literature on political socialization. Third, to address gaps in the two aforementioned literatures concerning a model of socialization that explains legitimation, I turn to neuroscience (for reviews see Greene, 2017; Cushman, 2020) and psychology to review models of socialization and rationalization. Finally, I synthesize these literatures to develop a theory of political socialization and how it generates PPL.     

北极问题演化及其对世界政治经济格局影响的研究

近年来,随着北极地区的经济价值和战略地位逐渐升高,北极问题的世界政治经济色彩越来越浓厚。从与北极问题相关的国家和国际组织对国际航线和资源能源等领域的影响以及越来越多的国家制定北极相关战略政策等方面来看,北极问题对世界政治经济格局影响的范围不断扩大。同时,从美俄、东北亚地区、欧盟等国际地位的变化来看,北极问题对世界政治经济格局影响的程度也在不断加深。在此作用下,世界政治经济重心将会进一步向北转移。世界大国在未来都会与北极问题形成千丝万缕的联系,如果不抓住机会积极争取北极权益、不关注和重视北极问题的发展趋势,势必会丧失占据下一轮世界政治经济格局转变优势地位的机会。     

19世纪60-80年代俄国境内朝鲜移民法律地位形成的中朝因素探析

19世纪60-80年代,随着俄国积极吸引劳动力开发远东政策的推行,朝鲜移民数量逐年增加,其法律地位亟待确立.在19世纪下半叶东北亚各国利益角逐与权力制衡的背景下,俄国朝鲜移民的法律地位问题不仅关乎俄国自身大计,更牵涉了中朝利益.通过对解密的俄罗斯帝国对外政策档案及相关原始资料的分析,我们认为,中朝两国对俄国积极安置朝鲜移民政策进行了全力抵制,不仅影响了俄国境内朝鲜移民法律地位的形成,还阻止了俄国东北亚战略计划的实施.在中朝两国的反对下,俄国仅部分地确立了其境内朝鲜移民的合法地位,这大大限制了俄国远东地区的朝鲜劳动力数量,破坏了俄国利用朝鲜移民开发远东,并以此为契机渗入朝鲜、角逐东北亚的战略计划.     

Calculating China’s Historical Economic Aggregate: A GDP-centered Overview*

Since the 1990s, thanks to the concerted efforts of domestic and international scholars, the research on China’s historical GDP that began in the 1930s has received widespread attention, and is becoming a widely discussed issue at the forefront of research on world economic history. At the same time, several scholars at home and abroad have also voiced a call for more theoretical and empirical reflection within this line of research. Diversification of methods, systematic reconstruction of historical data, and international comparisons represent three emerging trends in future research on this subject. By encouraging and leading these trends, Chinese scholars can assume a greater role in international research on economic history.     

Unrealized Possibilities

The levels and types of upward mobility in Soviet and Russian society have varied depending on the nature of the political and economic regimes. The Soviet pattern of mobility in which success was determined by political forces resulted in social and economic rigidity, and, after a brief period during which this system was being eroded, it now appears that current trends may be returning Russia to the Soviet pattern of mobility.     

政治发展还是“政治退却”——新中国政治发展战略退却思问

政治发展是不同类型国家都面临的问题。我国政治发展目标是人民民主。与改革开放三十年的辉煌成就相比，中国政治发展在实践和理论层面上都存在一定滞后性，这需要从新中国60年的发展历程中进行反思。与中国改革开放之前的“政治战略进攻”相比较，用“政治发展战略退却”来描述当今更为合适。政治战略进攻，脱离了中国社会历史现实和国情，是一种超越现实的、罗曼蒂克式的政治发展；从浪漫主义的政治发展经过改革、退却到不合格的不完全的社会主义政治，是一种趋向于现实主义的政治发展；从多元政治主体关系中谋求以社会主义政治为主导和定向的政治变迁，是一种理想主义与现实主义相结合的和合主义的中国式的政治发展战略。     

中亚汉学研究的历史和现状

中亚五国居亚州腹部。其中哈、吉、塔与中国接壤,乌、土为中国近邻。中亚五国与中、俄同为上海合作组织成员国,共同签订有《长期睦邻友好合作条约》。中亚在19世纪前由俄国所辖,进入20世纪归苏联管辖。该地区汉学研究与俄、苏一样,经历了对中国＂亲近＂、＂冷淡＂、＂汉语热＂的阶段。18世纪始,俄国汉学确立和发展。进入20世纪,苏联＂新汉学＂随着苏维埃政权的建立而形成、壮大和繁荣。先后有罗索欣、比丘林、瓦西里耶夫、阿列克谢耶夫、齐赫文斯基、李福清等在汉学研究上做出了历史性的贡献。苏联解体后,中亚哈、吉、乌东方学研究所对境内华人社群东干族以及当代中国的研究都十分重视和深入。在＂汉语热＂的今天,与中国合作建设孔子学院,促使汉语教学与＂中国学＂的研究成效显著。     

俄日接界地区的“国界”之变——以17世纪俄日两国的互相认识为视角

深入研究俄日领土之争是认识俄日历史关系的重要途径,更是把握两国关系前景的关键。探寻俄日领土问题的根源必须回到两国发生接触的源头。17—18世纪,在俄日两国相互认识的过程中,一度曾对萨哈林、堪察加、千岛群岛等特定地理概念存在多种误解和混淆。正是在这种蒙昧的地理认识时代,"莫斯科维亚"作为俄国的代名词第一次进入日本史料,并为日本人所熟知。直到18世纪俄国的两次堪察加远征,才无可争议地结束了这个漫长、模糊且混乱的时期,但同时也造成了延续两个多世纪的俄日领土之争。     

Political information,gender and the vote: the differential impact of organizations,personal discussion,and the media on the electoral decisions of women and men

Although there are many demonstrated ways in which men and women approach politics differently, we know very little about how sources of political information, e.g., mass media, political organizations, differentially influence the vote choices of men and women. Using a rich, contextual dataset containing measures not only of respondent perceptions of political information, but actual content coding of those sources of political information, we estimate how television, newspapers, personal discussants, organizations, and political parties may have impacted the voting of men and women in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. We find that women’s vote choices are more likely than men’s to be influenced by the organizations to which they belong. Women are also more likely to respond to television news with a hostile media bias—they see television newscasts as definitively favoring the candidate that they oppose. We address possible explanations for these patterns of results and point towards directions for additional research.