The Posterior Distribution of the Parameters of Component Lifetimes Based on Autopsy Data in a Shock Model

In this paper we consider a binary, monotone system whose component states are dependent through the possible occurrence of independent common shocks, i.e. shocks that destroy several components at once. The individual failure of a component is also thought of as a shock. Such systems can be used to model common cause failures in reliability analysis. The system may be a technological one, or a human being. It is observed until it fails or dies. At this instant, the set of failed components and the failure time of the system are noted. The failure times of the components are not known. These are the so-called autopsy data of the system. For the case of independent components, i.e. no common shocks, Meilijson (1981), Nowik (1990), Antoine et al . (1993) and GTsemyr (1998) discuss the corresponding identifiability problem, i.e. whether the component life distributions can be determined from the distribution of the observed data. Assuming a model where autopsy data is known to be enough for identifia bility, Meilijson (1994) goes beyond the identifiability question and into maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the component lifetime distributions based on empirical autopsy data from a sample of several systems. He also considers life-monitoring of some components and conditional life-monitoring of some other. Here a corresponding Bayesian approach is presented for the shock model. Due to prior information one advantage of this approach is that the identifiability problem represents no obstacle. The motivation for introducing the shock model is that the autopsy model is of special importance when components can not be tested separately because it is difficult to reproduce the conditions prevailing in the functioning system. In Gåsemyr & Natvig (1997) we treat the Bayesian approach to life-monitoring and conditional life- monitoring of components     

Ordering Properties of Systems with Two Dependent Components

The study of systems with dependent components from a reliability point of view is a very important topic. However, the majority of the articles study the case of independent components. In this article, we study how the dependency influences the performance of the system. We extend some comparison results obtained in the case of independent components to the case of two dependent components. We show that the more diverse the exponential parameters of the two components, the stronger (weaker) the parallel (series) system in the stochastic ordering. We apply our general results to some common bivariate models in the reliability theory.     

On a system of nonhomogeneous components sharing a common frailty

The components of a reliability system subjected to a common random environment usually have dependent lifetimes. This paper studies the stochastic properties of such a system with lifetimes of the components following multivariate frailty models and multivariate mixed proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR) models, respectively. Through doing stochastic comparison, we devote to throwing a new light on how the random environment affects the number of working components of a reliability system and on assessing the performance of a k-out-of-n system.     

Selective Maintenance in System Reliability with Random Costs of Repairing and Replacing the Components

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the optimum number of repairable and replaceable components to maximize a system's reliability when both, the cost of repairing the components and the cost of replacement of components by new ones, are random. We formulate it as a problem of non-linear stochastic programming. The solution is obtained through Chance Constrained programming. We also consider the problem of finding the optimal maintenance cost for a given reliability requirement of the system. The solution is then obtained by using Modified E-model. A numerical example is solved for both the formulations.     

System reliability estimation for the Exponential load-strength model

A system comprising k identical components is considered. The system load that is common to all components is treated as a random variable, modeled by a one-parameter Exponential distribution. Each component's resistance to load is also taken as a random variable, modeled by another one-parameter Exponential distribution that applies to each component. The system is considered redundant, meaning that the system remains operative so long as any m out of k components function, where 1≤m≤k. An expression for system reliability of this load-strength model is derived. The maximum likelihood estimator is compared with the structural expectation of system reliability.     

Reliability modeling of systems with two dependent degrading components based on gamma processes

Abstract

Many engineering systems have multiple components with more than one degradation measure which is dependent on each other due to their complex failure mechanisms, which results in some insurmountable difficulties for reliability work in engineering. To overcome these difficulties, the system reliability prediction approaches based on performance degradation theory develop rapidly in recent years, and show their superiority over the traditional approaches in many applications. This paper proposes reliability models of systems with two dependent degrading components. It is assumed that the degradation paths of the components are governed by gamma processes. For a parallel system, its failure probability function can be approximated by the bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. According to the relationship of parallel and series systems, it is easy to find that the failure probability function of a series system can be expressed by the bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its marginal distributions. The model in such a situation is very complicated and analytically intractable, and becomes cumbersome from a computational viewpoint. For this reason, the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed for this problem that allows the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters to be determined in an efficient manner. After that, the confidence intervals of the failure probability of systems are given. For an illustration of the proposed model, a numerical example about railway track is presented.     

On the mean past lifetime of the components of a parallel system

In the study of reliability of the technical systems and subsystems, parallel systems play a very important role. In the present paper, we consider a parallel system consisting of n identical components with independent lifetimes having a common distribution function F. It is assumed that at time t the system has failed. Under these conditions, we obtain the mean past lifetime (MPL) of the components of the system. Some properties of MPL are studied. It is shown that the underlying distribution function F can be recovered from the proposed MPL. Also, a comparison between two parallel systems are made based on their MPLs in the case where the components of the system are ordered in terms of reversed hazard rate. Finally a characterization of the uniform distribution is given based on MPL.     

Failure Data Analysis with Extended Weibull Distribution

A consecutive k-out-of-n: G system consists of n linearly ordered components functions if and only if at least k consecutive components function. In this article we investigate the consecutive k-out-of-n: G system in a setup of multicomponent stress-strength model. Under this setup, a system consists of n components functions if and only if there are at least k consecutive components survive a common random stress. We consider reliability and its estimation of such a system whenever there is a change and no change in strength. We provide minimum variance unbiased estimation of system reliability when the stress and strength distributions are exponential with unknown scale parameters. A nonparametric minimum variance unbiased estimator is also provided.     

Copula-based reliability analysis for a parallel system with a cold standby

The traditional reliability models cannot well reflect the effect of performance dependence of subsystems on the reliability of system, and neglect the problems of initial reliability and standby redundancy. In this paper, the reliability of a parallel system with active multicomponents and a single cold-standby unit has been investigated. The simultaneously working components are dependent and the dependence is expressed by a copula function. Based on the theories of conditional probability, the explicit expressions for the reliability and the MTTF of the system, in terms of the copula function and marginal lifetime distributions, are obtained. Let the copula function be the FGM copula and the marginal lifetime distribution be exponential distribution, a system with two parallel dependent units and a single cold-standby unit is taken as an example. The effect of different degrees of dependence among components on system reliability is analyzed, and the system reliability can be expressed as the linear combination of exponential reliability functions with different failure rates. For investigating how the degree of dependence affects the mean lifetime, furthermore, the parallel system with a single cold standby, comprising different number of active components, is also presented. The effectiveness of the modeling method is verified, and the method presented provides a theoretical basis for reliability design of engineering systems and physics of failure.     

Bayesian analysis of reliability in multicomponent stress-strength models

This paper provides a Bayesian treatment of the problem of inference about the reliability of a multicomponent stress-strength system which functions if s or more of k identical components simultaneously operate. All stresses and strengths are assumed to be independent, exponentially distributed random variables. Exact and approximate asymptotic posterior distributions for the reliability are derived, and the results are illustrated by a numerical example.     

Dependent masking and system life data analysis: Bayesian inference for two-component systems

Data from field operations of a system is often used to estimate the reliability of components. Under ideal circumstances, this system field data contains the time to failure along with information on the exact component responsible for the system failure. However, in many cases, the exact component causing the failure of the system cannot be identified, and is considered to be masked. Previously developed models for estimation of component reliability from masked system life data have been based upon the assumption that masking occurs independently of the true cause of system failure. In this paper we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating component reliabilities from masked system life data when the probability of masking is dependent upon the true cause of system failure. The Bayesian approach is illustrated for the case of a two-component system of exponentially distributed components.     

Estimation of system reliability

In this paper, we estimate the reliability of a system with k components. The system functions when at least s (1≤s≤k) components survive a common random stress. We assume that the strengths of these k components are subjected to a common stress which is independent of the strengths of these k components. If (X ₁,X ₂,…,X _k ) are strengths of k components subjected to a common stress (Y), then the reliability of the system or system reliability is given byR=P[Y<X _(k−s+1)] whereX _(k−s+1) is (k−s+1)-th order statistic of (X ₁,…,X _k ). We estimate R when (X ₁,…,X _k ) follow an absolutely continuous multivariate exponential (ACMVE) distribution of Hanagal (1993) which is the submodel of Block (1975) and Y follows an independent exponential distribution. We also obtain the asymptotic normal (AN) distribution of the proposed estimator.     

Signatures of series and parallel systems consisting of non disjoint modules

System signature is a useful tool to analyze coherent systems. In reliability theory, a large number of systems is actually the composition of disjoint subsystems (modules). However, in real life, there are situations in which the subsystems have common components. In this article, we consider the problem of obtaining signatures as well as minimal signatures of series and parallel systems that are composed of subsystems sharing a component. That is, these subsystems are no longer disjoint. Computational results are also presented to illustrate our findings.     

Joint Integrated Importance Measure for Multi-State Transition Systems

Joint reliability importance (JRI) evaluates the interaction of two components in contributing to the system reliability in a system. Traditional JRI measures mainly concern the change of the system reliability caused by the interactive change of the reliabilities of the two components and seldom consider the probability distributions, transition rates of the object component states, and system performance. This article extends the JRI concept of two components from multi-state systems to multi-state transition systems and mainly focuses on the joint integrated importance measure (JIIM) which considers the transition rates of component states. Firstly, the concept and physical meaning of JIIM in binary systems are described. Secondly, the JIIM for deterioration process (JIIMDP) and the JIIM for maintenance process (JIIMMP) in multi-state systems are studied respectively. The corresponding characteristics of JIIMDP and JIIMMP for series and parallel systems are also analyzed. Finally, an application to an offshore electrical power generation system is given to demonstrate the proposed JIIM.     

Modified branching process for the reliability analysis of complex systems: Multiple-robot systems

Current design practice is usually to produce a safety system which meets a target level of performance that is deemed acceptable by the regulators. Safety systems are designed to prevent or alleviate the consequences of potentially hazardous events. In many modern industries the failure of such systems can lead to whole system breakdown. In reliability analysis of complex systems involving multiple components, it is assumed that the components have different failure rates with certain probabilities. This leads into extensive computational efforts involved in using the commonly employed generating function (GF) and the recursive algorithm to obtain reliability of systems consisting of a large number of components. Moreover, when the system failure results in fatalities it is desirable for the system to achieve an optimal rather than adequate level of performance given the limitations placed on available resources. This paper concerns with developing a modified branching process joint with generating function to handle reliability evaluation of a multi-robot complex system. The availability of the system is modeled to compute the failure probability of the whole system as a performance measure. The results help decision-makers in maintenance departments to analyze critical components of the system in different time periods to prevent system breakdowns.     

Reliability Research of Dependent Failure Systems Using Copula

The computation of reliability characteristics of a system that consists of dependent components sometimes becomes difficult, especially when a specific type of dependence is not identified. In this paper, some systems with arbitrary dependent components are studied using copula. In the system, the components are dependent on each other and the dependent relations may be either linear or nonlinear correlation. The efficient formulas are presented to compute the reliability characteristics, such as reliability function, failure rate and meantime to failure of series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. The reliability functions of dependant systems are compared with independent system. At last, the numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results obtained in this paper.     

Optimal number of components in a load-sharing system for maximizing reliability

A $k$-out-of-$n$:G load sharing system is a cluster of $n$ components designed to withstand a certain amount of load in field operation, working only if no fewer than $k$ components work. Previous research on a load sharing system has focused on predicting the time-independent reliability from the stress–strength model or estimating the unknown parameters of the time-dependent reliability for a given load sharing rule. Differently, in this paper, we consider the problem of determining the optimal $n$ to maximize the reliability of both $n$-out-of-$n$:G and ($n$–$1$)-out-of-$n$:G load sharing systems. Since the load of each component decreases in $n$, the proportional hazard model is employed to relate the component failure rate with the load, assuming that the components, which have exponential distributions for given loads, are independent of each other. We then derive a sufficient condition under which a smaller number of components each withstanding a high load is preferred to a larger number of components each withstanding a small load. A numerical example is given for the rocket propulsion system to illustrate the result.     

A simulated annealing algorithm for system cost minimization subject to reliability constraints

A simulated annealing algorithm is presented that finds the minimum cost redundancy allocation subject to meeting a minimal reliability requirement for a coherent system of components. It is assumed that components are independent of one another, and that the form of the nominal system reliability function is available for input to the algorithm     

Nonparametric model checking for k-out-of-n systems

It is an important problem in reliability analysis to decide whether for a given k-out-of-n system the static or the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. Often components are redundantly added to a system to protect against failure of the system. If the failure of any component of the system induces a higher rate of failure of the remaining components due to increased load, the sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate. The increase of the failure rate of the remaining components after a failure of some component implies that the effects of the component redundancy are diminished. On the other hand, if all the components have the same failure distribution and whenever a failure occurs, the remaining components are not affected, the static k-out-of-n model is adequate. In this paper, we consider nonparametric hypothesis tests to make a decision between these two models. We analyze test statistics based on the profile score process as well as test statistics based on a multivariate intensity ratio and derive their asymptotic distribution. Finally, we compare the different test statistics.     

An extension of the Freund's bivariate distribution to model cascading failures

The notion of cascading failures is a common phenomenon we observe around us. Here the initial failure alters the structure function of the system, which leads to subsequent failures within a short period of time referred to as threshold time. The concept of cascading failures within the framework of reliability theory and the Freund bivariate exponential distribution to model cascading failures has been studied by few authors. The Freund bivariate exponential distribution allows modelling a parallel redundant system with two components. In this system, the lifetimes of the two components behave as if they are independent, until one of the components fail, after which the remaining component suffers an increased/decreased stress. In this article, we further generalize this model to accommodate cascading failures. Various properties of the model are investigated and statistical inference procedures are developed using L-moments and method of moments. A practical application of this model is illustrated using data from www.espncricinfo.com. Also well analysed Diabetic Retinopathy Study (DRS) data is further analysed using this model and our findings are presented.