城市旅游经济与生态环境系统耦合协调度比较研究——以上海、西安为例

基于协同论、可持续发展理论,在构建概念模型和数学模型的基础上,运用上海市和西安市2001-2009年的统计数据,对不同类型城市旅游经济与生态环境的耦合关系及协调发展演变过程做对比研究,结果发现：（1）城市旅游经济和生态环境系统之间普遍存在着相互影响、相互制约的耦合互动关系;（2）旅游经济与生态环境的相互作用与反馈是决定二者耦合关系的直接原因,而城市产业结构、旅游资源、市场客源、城市化进程、地理位置、气候环境方面的差异则是形成耦合关系的深层次基础;（3）耦合协调度评价模型能有效判断城市旅游经济与生态环境耦合关系与协调发展的状态,是研究旅游可持续发展的重要工具。     

The fiducial argument and hacking's principle of irrelevance

In a searching analysis of the fiducial argument Hacking (1965) proposed the Principle of Irrelevance as a condition under which the argument is valid. His statement of the Principle was essentially non-mathematical and this paper presents a mathematical development of the Principle. The relationship with likelihood inference is explored and some of the proposed counter-examples to fiducial theory are considered. It is shown that even with the Principle of Irrelevance examples of non-uniqueness of fiducial distributions exist.     

基于投入产出分析的产业结构高级化

投入产出分析是研究经济系统各要素相互联系的数量经济分析方法。产业结构高级化是指国民经济各部门重心转移的过程。无论是投入产出分析,还是产业结构高级化问题,迄今均有大量的研究和成果。但对两者之间关系特别是空间的关联性,似尚缺乏足够的关注。结合目前投入产出的发展和中国产业结构高级化的现状,从投入产出角度来分析中国的产业结构高级化的进程,以及中国三次产业的变化情况,并为国家规划产业结构的发展和国家制定产业政策提供新的启示和借鉴。     

经济统计学与计量经济学等相关学科的关系及发展前景

本文从统计学和经济学统一的视角,分析与阐述经济统计学与计量经济学等相关学科——概率论、数理统计学、计量经济学以及经济理论（包括数理经济学）之间的相互关系及发展前景。作为从样本信息推断母体特征的一般方法论,数理统计学由于符合人类科学研究的过程与需要,因而在自然科学和社会科学的很多领域得到了广泛应用。计量经济学是经济实证研究的推断方法论。经济统计学与计量经济学一起,构成经济实证研究完整的方法论,其中,作为经济测度方法论,经济统计学不仅提供定量描述经济实际运行的理论、方法与工具,它也是经济实证研究的先决条件与基础,是计量经济学理论发展的一个重要推动力量。经济统计学面临不少挑战,但有深厚的学科根基与巨大的发展空间,其作用是任何相关学科均不能替代的。统计学各个分支的交叉融合,将推动经济统计学和计量经济学的共同发展,从而进一步提升中国经济学实证研究的水平与科学性。     

二元社会系统模型下可持续发展能力的经济学解释及其评价

在建立二元社会系统模型的基础上,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线分别对二元社会系统的可持续发展能力进行了微观经济学描述和数学表征,指出可持续发展能力的实质是可持续发展水平的变化率,从而完成了对可持续发展能力的经济学解释,并在此基础上提出了可持续发展能力评价的基本原则。     

结构突变理论在中国就业结构分析中的应用

运用结构突变理论对1978—2007年中国就业结构进行分析，结果表明：中国各产业就业量数据为结构突变的趋势稳定过程，说明中国产业就业量的增长受到外部冲击的影响，出现了波动，但从长期来看，其增长沿着确定的轨迹增长。进一步运用变结构协整理论，分析中国产业结构与就业结构的长期稳定关系，结果表明协突变关系在各产业就业量与其对应增加值之间均成立，说明外生性冲击对中国产业就业量的变动有较大的影响。     

On Hacking's fiducial theory of inference

Fisher's theory of fiducial inference is known to lead to mathematical inconsistencies. Hacking (1965) puts forward a new basis for fiducial inference. In this paper we have presented Hacking's theory retaining his original terminology but replacing his notation by more usual mathematical notation. His condition of irrelevance is derived in an explicit mathematical form, making it more comprehensible to statisticians. Further an example is constructed to show that Hacking's theory also leads to mathematical inconsistencies.     

进口对中国经济增长驱动作用的实证分析

文章通过理论与实证分析阐述了进口对中国经济增长的驱动作用。理论上主要从当前的国际环境及中国的国情两方面论述了适当增加进口的必要性和可行性。实证上则是利用动态分布滞后(ADL)模型对进口与GDP关系进行协整分析并通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)进一步说明进口对中国经济增长的促进作用。最后根据以上分析提出建议:中国应适当增加进口以解决当前存在的贸易问题。     

韩国经济结构变化与CO2排放关系及启示

摘　　要:经济发展和环境问题,日益受到全世界的高度重视。本文利用投入产出分析方法,对韩国的经济结构变化与二氧化碳排放关系进行实证分析,得出韩国在1980年代后期的内需主导型发展模式带来了环境负荷的减少;1990年代前期的出口主导型发展模式带来了环境负荷的增加。结果表明韩国是出口环境负荷相对大的产品,也就是背负先进国家的环境负荷实现经济增长,对我国的经济发展与环境问题具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Assessment of the information theory approach to evaluating time-to-event surrogate and true endpoints in a meta-analytic setting

In many disease areas, commonly used long-term clinical endpoints are becoming increasingly difficult to implement due to long follow-up times and/or increased costs. Shorter-term surrogate endpoints are urgently needed to expedite drug development, the evaluation of which requires robust and reliable statistical methodology to drive meaningful clinical conclusions about the strength of relationship with the true long-term endpoint. This paper uses a simulation study to explore one such previously proposed method, based on information theory, for evaluation of time to event surrogate and long-term endpoints, including the first examination within a meta-analytic setting of multiple clinical trials with such endpoints. The performance of the information theory method is examined for various scenarios including different dependence structures, surrogate endpoints, censoring mechanisms, treatment effects, trial and sample sizes, and for surrogate and true endpoints with a natural time-ordering. Results allow us to conclude that, contrary to some findings in the literature, the approach provides estimates of surrogacy that may be substantially lower than the true relationship between surrogate and true endpoints, and rarely reach a level that would enable confidence in the strength of a given surrogate endpoint. As a result, care is needed in the assessment of time to event surrogate and true endpoints based only on this methodology.     

Group decision analysis and its application to combining opinions

This paper is about the graphical depiction of the set of feasible gains-in-utilities accruing to three Bayesians involved in the joint estimation of a multivatiate normal mean vector. The basic theory for this problem is sketched. Then a suitable parametrization of surface contours is developed. These contours allow the surface to be mapped and graphically displayed. This is done with the LIG language for interactive graphics. As the opinions of the three Bayesians diverge, the illustrations contained in the paper show how the initially smooth balloon shaped structure develops and ‘clicks’ through a flat spot and eventually becomes highly irregular with a central indentation. The result provides insight into the nature of disensus where explicit mathematical analysis is extremely difficult.     

Modelling and simulation to improve decision‐making in clinical development

Modelling and simulation are buzz words in clinical drug development. But is clinical trial simulation (CTS) really a revolutionary technique? There is not much more to CTS than applying standard methods of modelling, statistics and decision theory. However, doing this in a systematic way can mean a significant improvement in pharmaceutical research. This paper describes in simple examples how modelling could be used in clinical development. Four steps are identified: gathering relevant information about a drug and the disease; building a mathematical model; predicting the results of potential future trials; and optimizing clinical trials and the entire clinical programme. We discuss these steps and give a number of examples of model components, demonstrating that relatively unsophisticated models may also prove useful. We stress that modelling and simulation are decision tools and point out the benefits of integrating them with decision analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional probability and improper priors

ABSTRACT

According to Jeffreys improper priors are needed to get the Bayesian machine up and running. This may be disputed, but usage of improper priors flourish. Arguments based on symmetry or information theoretic reference analysis can be most convincing in concrete cases. The foundations of statistics as usually formulated rely on the axioms of a probability space, or alternative information theoretic axioms that imply the axioms of a probability space. These axioms do not include improper laws, but this is typically ignored in papers that consider improper priors.

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a consequence. Another consequence is that some of the usual calculation rules are modified. This is important in relation to common statistical practice which usually include improper priors, but tends to use unaltered calculation rules. In some cases, the results are valid, but in other cases inconsistencies may appear. The famous marginalization paradoxes exemplify this latter case.

An alternative mathematical theory for the foundations of statistics can be formulated in terms of conditional probability spaces. In this case, the appearance of improper laws is a consequence of the theory. It is proved here that the resulting mathematical structures for the two theories are equivalent. The conclusion is that the choice of the first or the second formulation for the initial axioms can be considered a matter of personal preference. Readers that initially have concerns regarding improper priors can possibly be more open toward a formulation of the initial axioms in terms of conditional probabilities. The interpretation of an improper law is given by the corresponding conditional probabilities.     

De Morgan in the prehistory of statistical hypothesis testing

Summary.  Whereas the research of the 19th-century mathematician Augustus De Morgan in formal logic is fairly familiar to historians of mathematics, his work in probability is largely unknown to the modern reader. For this reason, few would be aware that this work contains a self-admitted error in probabilistic reasoning. This mistake is intriguing not only because it features in the work of someone who was so expert in logic but also because it appears to be an early example of hypothesis testing, which was a topic of much controversy in the development of mathematical statistics in the 20th century. The paper examines the mathematical and historical details of De Morgan's error.     

重庆市自直辖以来服务业发展水平的数理统计分析

服务业的发展是经济发展社会进步的表现,其发展水平的高低已成为衡量一个国家或地区现代化程度和社会经济发达程度的重要标志。因此,认清重庆市目前服务业发展现状具有重要的现实意义。本文选取了五项衡量区域服务业发展水平的指标,采用数理统计分析法和比较分析法等分析方法,力求客观地评价重庆市服务业发展的现实状况,在此基础上,提出一些对策建议以促进重庆市服务业的快速健康发展。     

On aliasing and generalized defining relationships of factorial arrangements

The concepts of defining contrast (DC), generalized defining relationship (GDR) and aliasing structure (AS) are now well established in the terminology of regression analysis and factorial design theory. There is no complete agreement in the literature about the meaning of regular and irregular fractional factorial designs. This paper provides a workable definition of a regular fraction from a symmetrial prime-powered factorial. It characterizes the uniqueness of the GDR for fractions from the most general factorial. Results are also présentés on the uniqueness of the GDR for regular designs, on orthogonality aspects of regular and irregular designs, and on group-theoretic generation of the complete aliasing structure. Examples are provided to illustrate the developments.     

我国制造业企业国内价值链嵌入度的测算与事实

尽管国内价值链战略被视为助推中国产业发展的重要途径,但受制于忽略异质性的不足,已有研究很难进行企业层面的系统分析。有鉴于此,本文通过汲取增加值贸易与微观计量的双重优势,整合2002年、2007年、2010年、2012年省(区、市)间投入产出数据、工业企业数据与海关数据的海量信息,构建了一个可以连接新新贸易理论与国内价值链的分析框架。结果显示:我国制造业的国内价值链嵌入度大幅提升,但是提升背后隐藏着偏好加工制造、排斥服务投入的倾向;进一步考虑贸易类型、区域空间与所有制差异,也未改变国内价值链嵌入度的上述倾向;由于在位效应(存活企业的平均加权变动)构成了国内价值链嵌入度偏向加工制造、排斥服务投入的主要原因,我国制造业的国内价值链整合存在着循环累积的低端陷阱。本文的以上发现不仅补充了国内价值链的研究框架,同样为推动我国制造业高质量发展提供了切实参考。     

A Model for Water Pricing

This note describes a situation in which a simple mathematical model helped solve an important practical problem: how to price water fairly. It is intended as an example, rather than as a mathematical contribution to control theory.     

Invexity: an updated survey and new results for nonsmooth functions

The purpose of this paper is to introduce two recent developments in optimization theory which have the potential for significant impact when applied to the many optimization problems in mathematical statistics. The needs of optimization theory have served as the catalyst for the introduction and recent development of two important concepts: invexity and generalized differentiability. The former is a significant generalization of the simple yet powerful concept of convexity, while the latter extends the differentiabe calculus to functions that are not differentiabe in any traditional two-sided sense. For the most part these concepts have been developed independently in the literature. In this paper we provide an updated review of many of the results concerning smooth invex functions and merge the two concepts by introducing invexity for nonsmooth functions. For both real-valued and vector-valued nonsmooth functions we present recent results on optimality conditions, duality, and converse duality. No previous knowledge of invexity or nonsmooth analysis is assumed; a self-contained section on generalized differentiability for Lipschitz functions is included.     

The Topology of Central Counterparty Clearing Networks and Network Stability

□ This paper derives a measure of central counterparty (CCP) clearing-network risk that is based on the probability that the maximum exposure (the N-th order statistic) of a CCP to an individual general clearing member is large. Our analytical derivation of this probability uses the theory of Laplace asymptotics, which is related to the large deviations theory of rare events. The theory of Laplace asymptotics is an area of applied probability that studies the exponential decay rate of certain probabilities and is often used in the analysis of the tails of probability distributions. We show that the maximum-exposure probability depends on the topology, or structure, of the clearing network. We also derive a CCP's Maximum-Exposure-at-Risk, which provides a metric for evaluating the adequacy of the CCP's and general clearing members’ loss-absorbing financial resources during rare but plausible market conditions. Based on our analysis, we provide insight into how clearing-network structure can affect the maximum-exposure risk of a CCP and, thereby, network stability. We show that the rate function (the exponential decay rate) of the maximum-exposure probability is informative and can be used to compare the relative maximum-exposure risks across different network configurations.