An Exposure Assessment for Methylmercury from Seafood for Consumers in the United States

An exposure model was developed to relate seafood consumption to levels of methylmercury (reported as mercury) in blood and hair in the U.S. population, and two subpopulations defined as children aged 2-5 and women aged 18-45. Seafood consumption was initially modeled using short-term (three-day) U.S.-consumption surveys that recorded the amount of fish eaten per meal. Since longer exposure periods include more eaters with a lower daily mean intake, the consumption distribution was adjusted by broadening the distribution to include more eaters and reducing the distribution mean to keep total population intake constant. The estimate for the total number of eaters was based on long-term purchase diaries. Levels of mercury in canned tuna, swordfish, and shark were based on FDA survey data. The distribution of mercury levels in other species was based on reported mean levels, with the frequency of consumption of each species based on market share. The shape distribution for the given mean was based on the range of variation encountered among shark, tuna, and swordfish. These distributions were integrated with a simulation that estimated average daily intake over a 360-day period, with 10,000 simulated individuals and 1,000 uncertainty iterations. The results of this simulation were then used as an input to a second simulation that modeled levels of mercury in blood and hair. The relationship between dietary intake and blood mercury in a population was modeled from data obtained from a 90-day study with controlled seafood intake. The relationship between blood and hair mercury in a population was modeled from data obtained from several sources. The biomarker simulation employed 2,000 simulated individuals and 1,000 uncertainty iterations. These results were then compared to the recent National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) that tabulated blood and hair mercury levels in a cross-section of the U.S. population. The output of the model and NHANES results were similar for both children and adult women, with predicted mercury biomarker concentrations within a factor of two or less of NHANES biomarker results. However, the model tended to underpredict blood levels for women and overpredict blood and hair levels for children.     

Ethnic Differences in Risk from Mercury among Savannah River Fishermen

Fishing plays an important role in people's lives and contaminant levels in fish are a public health concern. Many states have issued consumption advisories; South Carolina and Georgia have issued them for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. This study examined ethnic differences in risk from mercury exposure among people consuming fish from the Savannah River, based on site-specific consumption patterns and analysis of mercury in fish. Among fish, there were significant interspecies differences in mercury levels, and there were ethnic differences in consumption patterns. Two methods of examining risk are presented: (1) Hazard Index (HI), and (2) estimates of how much and how often people of different body mass can consume different species of fish. Blacks consumed more fish and had higher HIs than Whites. Even at the median consumption, the HI for Blacks exceeded 1.0 for bass and bowfin, and, at the 75th percentile of consumption, the HI exceeded 1.0 for almost all species. At the White male median consumption, noHI exceeded 1, but for the 95th percentile consumer, the HI exceeded 1.0 almost regardless of which species were eaten. Although females consumed about two thirds the quantity of males, HIs exceeded 1 for most Black females and for White females at or above the 75th percentile of consumption. Thus, close to half of the Black fishermen were eating enough Savannah River fish to exceed HI = 1. Caution must be used in evaluating an HI because the RfDs were developed to protect the most vulnerable individuals. The percentage of each fish species tested that exceeded the maximum permitted limits of mercury in fish was also examined. Over 80% of bowfin, 38% of bass, and 21% of pickerel sampled exceeded 0.5 ppm. The risk methodology is applicable anywhere that comparable data can be obtained. The risk estimates are representative for fishermen along the Savannah River, and are not necessarily for the general populations.     

Use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis with a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model of Methylmercury to Estimate Exposures in U.S. Women of Childbearing Age

A Bayesian approach, implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, was applied with a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of methylmercury (MeHg) to evaluate the variability of MeHg exposure in women of childbearing age in the U.S. population. The analysis made use of the newly available National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) blood and hair mercury concentration data for women of age 16–49 years (sample size, 1,582). Bayesian analysis was performed to estimate the population variability in MeHg exposure (daily ingestion rate) implied by the variation in blood and hair concentrations of mercury in the NHANES database. The measured variability in the NHANES blood and hair data represents the result of a process that includes interindividual variation in exposure to MeHg and interindividual variation in the pharmacokinetics (distribution, clearance) of MeHg. The PBPK model includes a number of pharmacokinetic parameters (e.g., tissue volumes, partition coefficients, rate constants for metabolism and elimination) that can vary from individual to individual within the subpopulation of interest. Using MCMC analysis, it was possible to combine prior distributions of the PBPK model parameters with the NHANES blood and hair data, as well as with kinetic data from controlled human exposures to MeHg, to derive posterior distributions that refine the estimates of both the population exposure distribution and the pharmacokinetic parameters. In general, based on the populations surveyed by NHANES, the results of the MCMC analysis indicate that a small fraction, less than 1%, of the U.S. population of women of childbearing age may have mercury exposures greater than the EPA RfD for MeHg of 0.1 μg/kgg/day, and that there are few, if any, exposures greater than the ATSDR MRL of 0.3 μgg/kgg/day. The analysis also indicates that typical exposures may be greater than previously estimated from food consumption surveys, but that the variability in exposure within the population of U.S. women of childbearing age may be less than previously assumed.     

Re-evaluation of the Reference Dose for Methylmercury and Assessment of Current Exposure Levels

Methylmercury (Me-Hg) is widely distributed through freshwater and saltwater food chains and human consumption of fish and shellfish has lead to widespread exposure. Both the U.S. EPA Reference Dose (0.3 μg/kg/day) and the FAO/WHO Permissible Tolerable Weekly Intake (3.3 μg/kg/week) are currently based on the prevention of paraesthesia in adult and older children. However, Me-Hg exposure in utero is known to result in a range of developmental neurologic effects including clinical CNS symptoms and delayed onset of walking. Based on a critical review of developmental toxicity data from human and animal studies, it is concluded that current guidelines for the prevention of paraesthesia are not adequate to address developmental effects. A dose of 0.07 μ/kg/day is suggested as the best estimate of a potential reference dose for developmental effects. Data on nationwide fish consumption rates and Me-Hg levels in fish/seafood weighted by proportion of the catch intended for human consumption are analyzed in a Monte Carlo simulation to derive a probability distribution of background Me-Hg exposure. While various uncertainties in the toxicologic and exposure data limit the precision with which health risk can be estimated, this analysis suggests that at current levels of Me-Hg exposure, a significant fraction of women of childbearing age have exposures above this suggested reference dose.     

Probabilistic Integrated Human Mixture Risk Assessment of Multiple Metals Through Seafood Consumption

Inorganic arsenic (iAs), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and methylmercury (MeHg) are toxic metals that cause substantial health concern and are present in various seafood items. This study linked probabilistic risk assessment to the interactive hazard index (HI_INT) approach to assess the human mixture risk posed by the dietary intake of iAs, Cd, Pb, and MeHg from seafood for different age populations, and joint toxic actions and toxic interactions among metals were also considered in the assessment. We found that, in combination, an iAs–Cd–Pb–MeHg mixture synergistically causes neurological toxicity. Furthermore, an iAs–Cd–Pb mixture antagonistically causes renal and hematological effects and additively causes cardiovascular effect. Our results demonstrated that if toxic interactions are not considered, the health risk may be overestimated or underestimated. The 50th percentile HI_INT estimates in all age populations for neurological, renal, cardiovascular, and hematological effects were lower than 1; however, the 97.5th percentile HI_INT estimates might exceed 1. In particular, toddlers and preschoolers had the highest neurological risk, with 0.16 and 0.19 probabilities, respectively, of neurological HI_INT exceeding 1. Saltwater fish consumption was the principal contributor to the health risk. We suggest that regular monitoring of metal levels in seafood, more precise dietary surveys, further toxicological data, and risk–benefit analysis of seafood consumption are warranted to improve the accuracy of human mixture risk assessment and determine optimal consumption.     

Estimates of per Capita Fish Consumption in the U.S. Based on the Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII)

This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or "as consumed" condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.     

Foodborne Exposure to Pesticides and Methylmercury in the United Arab Emirates

As part of a comprehensive environmental health strategic planning project initiated by the government of Abu Dhabi, we assessed potential dietary exposure in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to methylmercury (in seafood) and pesticides (in fruits and vegetables) above international guideline levels. We present results for the UAE population by age, gender, and body mass index. Our results show very low daily risks of exposure to pesticides in fruits and vegetables at levels exceeding WHO guidelines even under the conservative assumption that no pesticides are removed during washing and food preparation. Thus, exposure to pesticides on fruits and vegetables does not appear to be a major public health concern in the UAE. The chances of exposure to methylmercury in seafood are much higher; our model estimates a mean 1 in 5 daily risk of exceeding the FAO/WHO provisional tolerable weekly intake. However, great caution should be used in interpreting these results, as we analyzed only the risks and not the substantial benefits of fish consumption. In fact, previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to the n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in fish can increase IQ in developing children, and it can substantially decrease the risk in adults of coronary heart disease and stroke. Further research is warranted to compare the risk of Me‐Hg exposure from fish to the nutritional benefits of fish consumption in the UAE and to determine appropriate methods to communicate risk and benefit information to the UAE population.     

Statistical Distributions of Daily Breathing Rates for Narrow Age Groups of Infants and Children

Children may be more susceptible to toxicity from some environmental chemicals than adults. This susceptibility may occur during narrow age periods (windows), which can last from days to years depending on the toxicant. Breathing rates specific to narrow age periods are useful to assess inhalation dose during suspected windows of susceptibility. Because existing breathing rates used in risk assessment are typically for broad age ranges or are based on data not representative of the population, we derived daily breathing rates for narrow age ranges of children designed to be more representative of the current U.S. children's population. These rates were derived using the metabolic conversion method of Layton (1993) and energy intake data adjusted to represent the U.S. population from a relatively recent dietary survey (CSFII 1994–1996, 1998). We calculated conversion factors more specific to children than those previously used. Both nonnormalized (L/day) and normalized (L/kg-day) breathing rates were derived and found comparable to rates derived using energy estimates that are accurate for the individuals sampled but not representative of the population. Estimates of breathing rate variability within a population can be used with stochastic techniques to characterize the range of risk in the population from inhalation exposures. For each age and age-gender group, we present the mean, standard error of the mean, percentiles (50th, 90th, and 95th), geometric mean, standard deviation, 95th percentile, and best-fit parametric models of the breathing rate distributions. The standard errors characterize uncertainty in the parameter estimate, while the percentiles describe the combined interindividual and intra-individual variability of the sampled population. These breathing rates can be used for risk assessment of subchronic and chronic inhalation exposures of narrow age groups of children.     

Assessing Risk‐Based Upper Limits of Melamine Migration from Food Containers

Melamine contamination of food has become a major food safety issue because of incidents of infant disease caused by exposure to this chemical. This study was aimed at establishing a safety limit in Taiwan for the degree of melamine migration from food containers. Health risk assessment was performed for three exposure groups (preschool children, individuals who dine out, and elderly residents of nursing homes). Selected values of tolerable daily intake (TDI) for melamine were used to calculate the reference migration concentration limit (RMCL) or reference specific migration limit (RSML) for melamine food containers. The only existing values of these limits for international standards today are 1.2 mg/L (0.2 mg/dm²) in China and 30 mg/L (5 mg/dm²) in the European Union. The factors used in the calculations included the specific surface area of food containers, daily food consumption rate, body weight, TDI, and the percentile of the population protected at a given migration concentration limit (MCL). The results indicate that children are indeed at higher risk of melamine exposure at toxic levels than are other groups and that the 95th percentile of MCL (specific surface area = 5) for children aged 1–6 years should be the RMCL (0.07 mg/dm²) for protecting the sensitive and general population.     

Efficacy of Risk-Based, Culturally Sensitive Ogaa (Walleye) Consumption Advice for Anishinaabe Tribal Members in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.     

Benzene Inhalation by Parts Washers: New Estimates Based on Measures of Occupational Exposure to Solvent Coaromatics

Questions persist regarding assessment of workers’ exposures to products containing low levels of benzene, such as mineral spirit solvent (MSS). This study summarizes previously unpublished data for parts‐washing activities, and evaluates potential daily and lifetime cumulative benzene exposures incurred by workers who used historical and current formulations of a recycled mineral spirits solvent in manual parts washers. Measured benzene concentrations in historical samples from parts‐washing operations were frequently below analytical detection limits. To better assess benzene exposure among these workers, air‐to‐solvent concentration ratios measured for toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX) were used to predict those for benzene based on a statistical model, conditional on physical‐chemical theory supported by new thermodynamic calculations of TEX and benzene activity coefficients in a modeled MSS‐type solvent. Using probabilistic methods, the distributions of benzene concentrations were then combined with distributions of other exposure parameters to estimate eight‐hour time‐weighted average (TWA) exposure concentration distributions and corresponding daily respiratory dose distributions for workers using these solvents in parts washers. The estimated 50th (95th) percentile of the daily respiratory dose and corresponding eight‐hour TWA air concentration for workers performing parts washing are 0.079 (0.77) mg and 0.0030 (0.028) parts per million by volume (ppm) for historical solvent, and 0.020 (0.20) mg and 0.00078 (0.0075) ppm for current solvent, respectively. Both 95th percentile eight‐hour TWA respiratory exposure estimates for solvent formulations are less than 10% of the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration permissible exposure limit of 1.0 ppm for benzene.     

An Exposure Assessment of Methyl Mercury via Fish Consumption for the Japanese Population

The objective of this article was to propose an exposure assessment model to describe the relationship between fish consumption and body methyl mercury (MeHg) levels in the Japanese population. Individual MeHg intake was estimated by the summation of species-specific fish consumption multiplied by species-specific fish MeHg levels. The distribution of fish consumed by individuals and the MeHg level in each fish species were assigned based on published data from Japanese government institutions. The probability of MeHg intake for a population was accomplished through a Monte Carlo simulation by the random sampling of fish consumption and species-specific MeHg levels. Internal body MeHg levels in blood and hair were estimated using a one-compartment model. Overall, the mean value of MeHg intake for the Japanese population was estimated to be 6.76 μg/day or 0.14 μg/kg body weight per day (bw/day), while the mean value for the hair mercury level was 2.02 μg/g. Compared with the survey data that tabulated hair mercury levels in a cross-section of the Japanese population, the simulation results matched the hair mercury survey data very well for women, but somewhat underestimated for men and all of the population. This exposure assessment model is a useful attempt at further risk assessment with respect to a risk-benefit analysis.     

A Risk Analysis Model of the Relationship Between Beverage Consumption from School Vending Machines and Risk of Adolescent Overweight

Risk analysis is a widely used tool to understand problems in food safety policy, but it is seldom applied to nutrition policy. We propose that risk analysis be applied more often to inform debates on nutrition policy, and we conduct a risk assessment of the relationship of regular carbonated soft drink (RCSD) consumption in schools and body mass index (BMI) as a case study. Data for RCSD consumption in schools were drawn from three data sets: the Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals 1994-1996, 1998 (CSFII), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2000 (NHANES), and the National Family Opinion (NFO) WorldGroup Share of Intake Panel (SIP) study. We used the largest relationship between RCSD and BMI that was published by prospective observational studies to characterize the maximum plausible relationship in our study. Consumption of RCSD in schools was low in all three data sets, ranging from 15 g/day in NFO-SIP to 60 g/day in NHANES. There was no relationship between RCSD consumption from all sources and BMI in either the CSFII or the NHANES data. The risk assessment showed no impact on BMI by removing RCSD consumption in school. These findings suggest that focusing adolescent overweight prevention programs on RCSD in schools will not have a significant impact on BMI.     

Daily Inhalation Rate and Time‐Activity/Location Pattern in Japanese Preschool Children

Lack of data on daily inhalation rate and activity of children has been an issue in health risk assessment of air pollutants. This study aimed to obtain the daily inhalation rate and intensity and frequency of physical activity in relation to the environment in Japanese preschool children. Children aged four–six years (n= 138) in the suburbs of Tokyo participated in this study, which involved three days' continuous monitoring of physical activity using a tri‐axial accelerometer and parent's completion of a time/location diary during daily life. The estimated three‐day mean daily inhalation rate (body temperature, pressure, saturated with water vapor) was 9.9 ± 1.6 m³/day (0.52 ± 0.09 m³/kg/day). The current daily inhalation rate value of 0.580 m³/kg/day proposed for use in health risk assessment in Japan is confirmed to be valid to calculate central value of inhaled dose of air pollutants in five‐ to six‐year‐old children. However, the 95th percentile daily inhalation rate of 0.83 m³/kg/day based on measurement for five‐year‐old children is recommended to be used to provide an upper bound estimate of exposure that ensure the protection of all five‐ to six‐year‐old children from the health risk of air pollutants. Children spent the majority of their time in sedentary and light level of physical activity (LPA) when indoors, while 85% of their time when outdoors was spent in LPA and moderate‐to‐vigorous physical activity. The results suggest the need to consider variability of minute respiratory ventilation rate according to the environment for more refined short‐term health risk assessment.     

Determination of a Tolerable Daily Intake of DDT for Consumers of DDT Contaminated Fish from the Lower Yakima River, Washington*

DDT, DDE, and DDD have been detected at elevated concentrations in sediments and fish of the Yakima River, its tributaries and drainages. An assessment was conducted to evaluate the public health significance of eating fish from the river. This was accomplished by establishing a daily intake level of DDT for the population of greatest concern, and comparing this level to a tolerable daily intake. The most sensitive and highly exposed group was determined to be breastfeeding infants. Infant daily intakes of DDT, based on estimated mother's DDT-breast milk levels, were compared to a recommended tolerable daily intake. Results indicate that mothers who frequently consume Yakima River bottom-feeding fish could have breast milk DDT concentrations sufficiently high to expose their infants to levels above the tolerable daily intake.     

The Use of Multizone Models to Estimate an Airborne Chemical Contaminant Generation and Decay Profile: Occupational Exposures of Hairdressers to Vinyl Chloride in Hairspray During the 1960s and 1970s

Vinyl chloride (VC) was used as a propellant in a limited percentage of aerosol hairspray products in the United States from approximately 1967 to 1973. The question has arisen whether occupational exposures of hairdressers to VC-containing hairsprays in hair salons were sufficient to increase the risk for developing hepatic angiosarcoma (HAS). Transient two-zone and steady-state three-zone models were used to estimate the historical airborne concentration of VC for individual hairdressers using hairspray as well as estimated contributions from other hairdressers in the same salon. Concentrations of VC were modeled for small, medium, and large salons, as well as a representative home salon. Model inputs were determined using published literature, and variability in these inputs was also considered using Monte Carlo techniques. The 95th percentile for the daily time-weighted average exposure for small, medium, and large salons, assuming a market-share fraction of VC-containing hairspray use from the Monte Carlo analysis, was about 0.3 ppm, and for the home salon scenario was 0.1 ppm. The 95th percentile value for the cumulative lifetime exposure of the hairdressers was 2.8 ppm-years for the home salon scenario and 2.0 ppm-years for the small, medium, and large salon scenarios. If using the assumption that all hairsprays used in a salon contained VC, the 95th percentile of the theoretical lifetime cumulative dose was estimated to be 52–79 ppm-years. Estimated lifetime doses were all below the threshold dose for HAS of about 300 to 500 ppm-years reported in the published epidemiology literature.     

Exposure Assessment for Pesticide Intake from Multiple Food Products: A Bayesian Latent‐Variable Approach

Pesticide risk assessment for food products involves combining information from consumption and concentration data sets to estimate a distribution for the pesticide intake in a human population. Using this distribution one can obtain probabilities of individuals exceeding specified levels of pesticide intake. In this article, we present a probabilistic, Bayesian approach to modeling the daily consumptions of the pesticide Iprodione though multiple food products. Modeling data on food consumption and pesticide concentration poses a variety of problems, such as the large proportions of consumptions and concentrations that are recorded as zero, and correlation between the consumptions of different foods. We consider daily food consumption data from the Netherlands National Food Consumption Survey and concentration data collected by the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture. We develop a multivariate latent‐Gaussian model for the consumption data that allows for correlated intakes between products. For the concentration data, we propose a univariate latent‐t model. We then combine predicted consumptions and concentrations from these models to obtain a distribution for individual daily Iprodione exposure. The latent‐variable models allow for both skewness and large numbers of zeros in the consumption and concentration data. The use of a probabilistic approach is intended to yield more robust estimates of high percentiles of the exposure distribution than an empirical approach. Bayesian inference is used to facilitate the treatment of data with a complex structure.     

A Risk Assessment for Consumers of Mourning Doves

Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves ( Zenaida macroura ), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.     

Lognormal Distributions for Fish Consumption by the General U.S. Population

The rate of fish consumption is a critical variable in the assessment of human health risk from water bodies affected by chemical contamination and in the establishment of federal and state Ambient Water Quality Criteria (AWQC). For 1973 and 1974, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) analyzed data on the consumption of salt-water finfish, shellfish, and freshwater finfish from all sources in 10 regions of the United States for three age groups in the general population: children (ages 1 through 11 years), teenagers (ages 12 through 18 years), and adults (ages 19 through 98 years). Even though the NMFS data reported in Ref. 14 are 20 years old, they remain the most complete data on the overall consumption of all fish by the general U.S. population and they have been widely used to select point values for consumption. Using three methods, we fit lognormal distributions to the results of the survey as analyzed and published in Ref. 14. Strong lognormal fits were obtained for most of the 90 separate data sets. These results cannot necessarily be used to model the consumption of fish by sport or subsistence anglers from specific sites or from single water bodies.     

Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment for Exposures to Estuary Sediments and Biota Contaminated with Polychlorinated Biphenyls, Polychlorinated Terphenyls and Other Toxic Substances

A Latin Hypercube probabilistic risk assessment methodology was employed in the assessment of health risks associated with exposures to contaminated sediment and biota in an estuary in the Tidewater region of Virginia. The primary contaminants were polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated terphenyls (PCTs), polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and metals released into the estuary from a storm sewer system. The exposure pathways associated with the highest contaminant intake and risks were dermal contact with contaminated sediment and ingestion of contaminated aquatic and terrestrial biota from the contaminated area. As expected, all of the output probability distributions of risk were highly skewed, and the ratios of the expected value (mean) to median risk estimates ranged from 1.4 to 14.8 for the various exposed populations. The 99th percentile risk estimates were as much as two orders of magnitude above the mean risk estimates. For the sediment exposure pathways, the stability of the median risk estimates was found to be much greater than the stability of the expected value risk estimates. The interrun variability in the median risk estimate was found to be +/-1.9% at 3000 iterations. The interrun stability of the mean risk estimates was found to be approximately equal to that of the 95th percentile estimates at any number of iterations. The variation in neither contaminant concentrations nor any other single input variable contributed disproportionately to the overall simulation variance. The inclusion or exclusion of spatial correlations among contaminant concentrations in the simulation model did not significantly effect either the magnitude or the variance of the simulation risk estimates for sediment exposures.