Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors

A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within–identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within–identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment—not genetic factors—that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944–1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.     

The Demographic Promise of Expanded Female Education: Trends in the Age at First Birth in Malawi

The expansion of female education has been promoted as a way to postpone the age at first birth. In sub‐Saharan Africa, the first cohorts to benefit from policies that expanded access to education are now reaching adulthood and beginning childbearing. I investigate whether the expansion of education in Malawi, which implemented a free primary education policy in 1994 and subsequently expanded secondary schooling, has led to a later age at first birth and whether the education gradient in fertility timing has remained stable over time. Despite increases in female grade attainment over the past twenty years, the age at first birth has not changed. Using instrumental variables analysis, I find a significant negative association between grade attainment and age at first birth, suggesting that the deterioration of school quality and the shift in the age pattern of enrollment that accompanied educational expansion may have compromised the transformative potential of education.     

The effect of non-family experiences on age of marriage in a setting of rapid social change

This study examines the changing effects of non-family activities on the age of transition to first marriage in four cohorts of individuals across 45 years in the Chitwan Valley, Nepal. The results indicate that school enrolment had a negative effect on both men's and women's marriage rates, while total years of schooling had a positive effect on men's marriage rates. Non-family employment experiences increased marriage rates for men only. Analysing the effects of schooling and employment over time suggests that school enrolment became a growing deterrent to marriage for both sexes, and that non-family employment became an increasingly desirable attribute in men. The results are consistent with changing views about sex roles and schooling over time in the region, as the roles of student and spouse became more distinct. The results also suggest an increasing integration of husbands in the non-family labour market.     

Determinants Of Cumulative Fertility In Ghana

The relatively few studies conducted on fertility differentials in Ghana have not controlled for the effect of important demographic variables, such as age at first marriage and current age of respondent. This paper attempts a multivariate analysis of the relationship between cumulative fertility and age at first marriage, level of education, religion, form of marriage and residence of husband. Data drawn from a census sample survey in 1971 include 72,816 currently married females aged 15–49 years. Age at first marriage was inversely related to cumulative fertility. The differentials were more pronounced for older women. Among the older women, the differentials were larger for rural than urban women. There were also significant fertility differentials associated with level of education, religion and form of marriage. Husband’s residence was a poor predictor of cumulative fertility. As a policy measure, it is suggested that priority be given to providing young women with more education or employment opportunities as an alternative to early marriage.     

Premarital socioeconomic roles and the timing of family formation: A comparative study of five Asian societies

The impact of female socioeconomic activities on cumulative fertility is a product of a series of life cycle stages, including the initiation of marriage and the timing of subsequent births. In the present paper, the effects of premarital socioeconomic roles on the first stages of family formation—the timing of marriage and the interval between marriage and first birth—are analyzed. Modern socioeconomic roles, especially educational attainment, lead to a postponement of marriage, and thereby age at first birth. However, the same variables tend to have a counterbalancing effect by reducing the interval from marriage to the first birth.     

Childhood nutrition and later fertility: Pathways through education and pre-pregnant nutritional status

Better childhood nutrition is associated with earlier physical maturation during adolescence and increased schooling attainment. However, as earlier onset of puberty and increased schooling can have opposing effects on fertility, the net effect of improvements in childhood nutrition on a woman’s fertility are uncertain. Using path analysis, we estimate the strength of the pathways between childhood growth and subsequent fertility outcomes in Guatemalan women studied prospectively since birth. Height for age z score at 24 months was positively related to body mass index (BMI kg/m²) and height (cm) in adolescence and to schooling attainment. BMI was negatively associated (−0.23 ± 0.09 years per kg/m²; p < . 05) and schooling was positively associated (0.38 ± 0.06 years per grade; p < .001) with age at first birth. Total associations with the number of children born were positive from BMI (0.07 ± 0.02 per kg/m²; p < .05) and negative from schooling (−0.18 ± 0.02 per grade; p < .01). Height was not related to age at first birth or the number of children born. Taken together, childhood nutrition, as reflected by height at 2 years, was positively associated with delayed age at first birth and fewer children born. If schooling is available for girls, increased growth during childhood will most likely result in a net decrease infertility.     

The Risk of an Unwanted Birth: The Changing Context of Contraceptive Sterilization in the U.S.

Life-table estimates indicate that one-quarter of U.S. women intend no more births by age 25, one-half by age 27, and three-quarters by age 30. The resulting long period at risk of unwanted fertility is argued to be an important underlying dimension of the revolution in attitudes to and practice of sterilization. Life-table estimates are then considered of the timing of sterilization after the last wanted birth. Almost one-quarter of all couples select sterilization within the first year after they have had the number of children they desire. Recent experience would imply that four-fifths of all couples will eventually use contraceptive sterilization. In order to examine the determinants of men's and women's sterilization, logistic regression is used with a polytomous dependent variable: sterilization of the woman, sterilization of the man, or no sterilization within four years of the last wanted birth. Covariates considered are age and parity at last wanted birth, year and duration of marriage at last wanted birth, wife's and husband's education, wife's and husband's religion, whether residence is in a central city, region, pill-use history and timing-failure histories before the last wanted birth, and unwanted birth. Large and significant effects are found for most of these variables, and these effects change in interpretable ways between early innovative behaviour and sterilization during the most recent period when it was widely accepted.     

中国女性初婚模式变动趋势研究

20世纪80年代以来我国女性的初婚模式发生了显著的变化。本文使用人口普查资料、全国1%人口抽样调查数据、人口变动情况抽样调查数据以及IPUMS数据,通过女性平均初婚年龄、曾婚比例、年龄别初婚概率、终身结婚期待率和预期单身寿命等指标探究我国女性自20世纪80年代以来的初婚模式变动情况。研究发现30多年来我国女性平均初婚年龄在波动中上升,到2017年女性平均初婚年龄已经达到25.60岁,而教育程度的提高会推迟女性进入婚姻的时间,接受过高等教育的女性平均初婚年龄明显高于未受过高等教育的女性;另外,通过对各教育程度平均初婚年龄标准化与分解看到随着时间的推移,教育对女性的平均初婚年龄影响作用增大;20-30岁年龄段女性婚姻推迟明显,曾婚比例不断降低,但女性终身未婚比例很低,其中受过高等教育的女性婚姻推迟现象最为明显,但其自身的结婚意愿并未降低,大部分女性只是推迟结婚时间,并不是不结婚。对净婚姻表各指标进行计算发现1982-2010年女性的年龄别初婚概率下降,尤其在20-30岁年龄段下降明显,初婚峰值年龄推迟,结婚年龄集中现象减弱。终身结婚期待率下降速度趋缓,随着女性初婚年龄的推迟,2010年27岁之后的终身结婚期待率要高于1990年与2000年,29-35岁女性的预期单身寿命也较前30年低,较大年龄未婚女性结婚等待时间缩短。     

Maternal Age and Child Development

Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.     

The spread of primary schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for fertility change

In 1980 Caldwell hypothesized that the time of the onset of the fertility transition in developing countries would be linked with the achievement of “mass formal schooling.” This article applies Demographic and Health Survey data to assess schooling patterns and trends for 23 sub‐Saharan African countries, using the percentage of 15–19‐year olds who have completed at least four years of schooling as an indicator of progress in education. As background to that assessment, the article includes a review of the sparse literature on the links between children's schooling and fertility decline. The analysis strongly supports Caldwell's hypothesis with empirical evidence of the much stronger negative relationship between fertility decline and grade 4 attainment in those countries that have attained mass‐schooling levels than in those that have not yet achieved such levels.     

个体经济地位、婚前家庭经济差异与婚姻迁移

婚姻迁移是通过婚姻途径发生的并伴随户口变更的人口迁移。我国婚姻迁移人口的规模不断增长，婚姻迁移受性别、出生地、出生年代的影响，初婚年龄的队列差别对婚姻迁移同样存在影响。个人经济地位，即个人年收入越高，婚姻迁移的可能性越大。婚前男方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性更高，女方家庭经济状况更好的婚姻迁移的可能性相对较低。     

Compulsory Schooling Laws and Migration Across European Countries

Educational attainment is a key factor for understanding why some individuals migrate and others do not. Compulsory schooling laws, which determine an individual’s minimum level of education, can potentially affect migration. We test whether and how increasing the length of compulsory schooling influences migration of affected cohorts across European countries, a context where labor mobility is essentially free. We construct a novel database that includes information for 31 European countries on compulsory education reforms passed between 1950 and 1990. Combining this data with information on recent migration flows by cohorts, we find that an additional year of compulsory education reduces the number of individuals from affected cohorts who migrate in a given year by 9 %. Our results rely on the exogeneity of compulsory schooling laws. A variety of empirical tests indicate that European legislators did not pass compulsory education reforms as a reaction to changes in emigration rates or educational attainment.     

Proximate determinants of Philippine fertility: 1983 levels and patterns

Data from the 1983 National Demographic Survey are used to analyze the proximate determinants of Philippine fertility in each of the 3 stages of family formation and to identify all of the direct and indirect factors affecting fertility levels and trends. 10,843 ever-married women and 12,771 children were included. The analysis pertains first to the starting patterns of family formation, the age at first birth, and the proximate determinants (age at menarche, age at first marriage/union, conception before first birth, fetal wastage first birth, interval between first marriage and first birth). Further analysis examines birth spacing patterns including the postpartum nonsusceptible period, the exposure interval and stopping patterns. Almost all births occur within marriage, and childbearing begins late at 22.5 years. However, 15.4% of first births are conceived premaritally. The mean age at first birth increases from younger to older cohorts. Urban women were slightly older (23.0 years) at the birth of their first child. Those with education below the 4th grade had first births 3.5 years earlier. Contraceptive use was low at 1.8% before first birth. Younger cohorts were more likely to use birth control and urban wives were more likely to use it than rural wives. 6.4% reported a first pregnancy ending in nonlive births, which were primarily spontaneous abortions (5.2%), stillbirths (1.0%), and induced abortions (.2%). 5.8% report never having been pregnant and 1.1% never having given birth to a live-born child. 20.4% were childless between the ages of 15-24 years, and 4.6% between 25-34 years. Childlessness was slightly higher among urban women (7.1%) than rural women (6.7%). A decreasing age at menarche has appeared; i.e., 13.6 years for the cohort 15-24 years, and 14.0 for the oldest cohort. By age 15, 82.9% had begun menstruating. The mean age at marriage is early at 20.7 years, and older cohorts tended to marry later at 21.4 years. Urban women marry a year later (21.4 years) than rural women. Lower educated women marry 4 years earlier. The mean length between first marriage and first birth was 18.4 months. In the younger cohorts, spacing patterns are shorter. Postpartum susceptibility is short. Return to sexual relations after a birth occurred at 2.8 months. The exposure time required to conceive is fairly long at 16.6 months and is attributed to contraceptive use, since coital frequency is high and temporary separation is infrequent. The average age at last birth is late at 37.6 years.     

Mothers' Education and Survival of Female Children in a Rural Area of Bangladesh

In this paper it is investigated whether the positive effect of mothers' education on child survival is similar for boys and girls in Matlab, Bangladesh. The study is based on follow-up of 7,913 live births that occurred in the study area during the whole of 1982. The five independent variables included in the analysis are: sex of children, mother's education, mother's age at the time of birth, household economic condition, and health programme block. Hazard analysis shows that the positive effect of mother's education on child survival is different for boys and girls. For boys, a change in mother's education from no schooling to 1–5 years resulted in reducing the predicted risk of death by 45 per cent, while for the girls the reduction came to only seven per cent. Similarly, a change in mother's education from no schooling to six or more years of schooling resulted in a reduction of risk of 70 per cent for boys, while for girls it was only 32 per cent.     

Relative Cohort Size,Relative Income,and Married Women's Labor Force Participation: United States, 1968–2010

Relative cohort size—the ratio of young adults to prime‐age adults—and relative income—the income of young adults relative to their material aspirations—have experienced substantial changes over the past 40 years. Results here show that changes in relative cohort size explain about 60 percent of the declines in women's starting wage—both relative and absolute—in 1968–82, and 97 percent of its increase in 1982–2001. Relative income is hypothesized to affect a number of behavioral choices by young adults, including marriage, childbearing, and female labor force participation, as young people strive to achieve their desired standard of living. Older family income—the denominator in a relative income variable—increased by 59 percent between 1968 and 2000, and then declined by 9 percent. Its changes explain 47 percent of the increase in the labor force participation of white married women in their first 15 years out of school between 1970 and 1990, and 38 percent of the increase in hours worked in the same period. The study makes use of individual‐level measures of labor force participation and employs the lagged income of older families in a woman's year‐state‐race‐education group to instrument parental income and hence material aspirations.     

Earnings,relative income,and family formation

The probability of first marriage for men who graduated from Wisconsin high schools in 1957 was analyzed with respect to their Social Security earnings records, Wisconsin income tax reports for parents, and other variables. The findings provide no support for Easterlin's hypothesis that marriage will occur earlier when young men judge their economic prospects favorably with respect to their parents' income. However, young men's earnings and time spent in schooling to increase them were found to be important influences on marriage timing. Additional schooling had little effect net of the time it absorbed.     

Do more-schooled women have fewer children and delay childbearing? Evidence from a sample of US twins

Using data on monozygotic (MZ) (identical) female twins from the Minnesota Twin Registry, we estimate the causal effect of schooling on completed fertility, probability of being childless, and age at first birth using the within-MZ twins methodology. We find strong cross-sectional associations between schooling and the fertility outcomes, and some evidence that more schooling causes women to have fewer children and delay childbearing, though not to the extent that interpreting cross-sectional associations as causal would imply. Our conclusions are robust when taking account of (1) endogenous within-twin pair schooling differences due to reverse causality and (2) measurement error in schooling. We also investigate possible mechanisms and find that the effect of women’s schooling on completed fertility is not mediated through husband’s schooling but may be mediated in part through age at first marriage.     

What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena. The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970s were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among nonblack women; (b) education is an important determinant of delayed childbearing whose influence on this phenomenon seems to be increasing across cohorts; (c) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth; (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts; (e) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness; and (f) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.     

Opportunities to Meet: Occupational Education and Marriage Formation in Young Adulthood

Explanations for the positive association between education and marriage in the United States emphasize the economic and cultural attractiveness of having a college degree in the marriage market. However, educational attainment may also shape the opportunities that men and women have to meet other college-educated partners, particularly in contexts with significant educational stratification. We focus on work—and the social ties that it supports—and consider whether the educational composition of occupations is important for marriage formation during young adulthood. Employing discrete-time event-history methods using the NLSY-97, we find that occupational education is positively associated with transitioning to first marriage and with marrying a college-educated partner for women but not for men. Moreover, occupational education is positively associated with marriage over cohabitation as a first union for women. Our findings call attention to an unexplored, indirect link between education and marriage that, we argue, offers insight into why college-educated women in the United States enjoy better marriage prospects.     

Changes in Cohabitation After the Birth of the First Child in Chile

In Chile, as in other Latin American countries, most children born outside of marriage are born to currently cohabiting couples. After having their first child, parents could marry, separate, or experience no change in union status. This paper explores changes in cohabitation that occur after the birth of the first child in Chile and analyzes how these changes might be associated with the birth of children and socioeconomic status. The data come from the New Chilean Family Survey, a small longitudinal survey administered to women after giving birth (n = 564). I use life tables and event history techniques to assess changes in respondent union status up to 4 years after the birth of the first child, and to study the transitions out of cohabitation. The results indicate that the unions in the sample are relatively stable, because less than 40 percent of cohabiters change status over the period of 4 years. However, marriage still appears to be a more stable type of union than cohabitation. Among cohabiters, there is evidence of a nonlinear relation between union stability and educational attainment, because the most stable unions are the unions of women with a high school diploma and not the unions of women who did not complete their secondary education. Having planned the first birth and the birth of an additional child seems to consolidate the cohabiting union, because these variables are not related to the entry into marriage, but they are related to lower risks of dissolution. These findings suggest that the Chilean case differs from the cases of Europe and the United States.