新生代农民工市民化意愿的影响因素分析——基于广东省三市的调查

通过对广州、深圳、东莞三市外出务工人员的调查数据,运用理性选择理论,分析了新生代农民工市民化意愿及其影响因素。结果发现,年龄、性别、受教育程度和月收入都对新生代农民工的市民化意愿产生了影响;是否在城市购买住房、城市融入感和自我身份认同也影响了新生代农民工的市民化决策;购买城市社会保险显著提高市民化意愿。而务农经历、婚姻状况和是否获得技术等级证书则未对其市民化意愿产生影响。     

新生代农民工市民化意愿影响因素分析

本文基于242份样本数据,从资本和认知的视角出发,使用结构方程模型分析新生代农民工市民化意愿的影响因素。结果表明,新生代农民工对务工动机、农村生活、社会身份和城市生活境遇的认知显著影响其市民化意愿;同时,家庭非农劳动力个数、家乡和家庭的经济水平也对新生代农民工市民化意愿有显著影响。因此,提升新生代农民工的家庭资本水平和追求个体发展的意识,改善其在城市的生存状况,对提高新生代农民工市民化意愿有促进作用。     

新生代农民工市民化现状及影响因素分析

新生代农民工市民化是十二五时期推进我国城镇化发展的重要方面。首先,在已有研究的基础上,通过建立一个包括8个二级指标和9个三级指标的市民化水平分析指数,并利用等权重的办法对每个指标赋予相同的权重,复合出新生代农民工市民化水平这一变量,并计算出目前我国的新生代农民工处于中市民化阶段;进而对影响新生代农民工市民化水平的微观因素进行了探讨。回归结果表明,新生代农民工的性别、年龄、是否具有务农经验、是否是独生子女对于市民化水平有显著的影响;而家庭因素,如打工期间是否与家人同住、父亲是否在外打工对新生代农民工的市民化水平的影响并不显著;新生代农民工主观认知层面的自评经济状况好坏以及对城市的归属感是影响其市民化水平的显著变量。     

新生代农民工市民化意愿影响因素的实证研究--基于人力资本、社会资本和心理资本的考察

本文基于全国198个城市的样本数据,运用二元logistic回归模型,从人力资本、社会资本、心理资本三个维度对新生代农民工市民化意愿影响因素进行了实证分析。结果发现,人力资本中是否参加过培训、培训次数、拥有的技能数以及技术等级四个变量对新生代农民工市民化意愿有显著的影响。而学历水平没能通过显著性检验。社会资本中的外地同学亲戚数和参加社会活动的数量对新生代农民工市民化意愿有显著影响,而当地同学亲戚数没有通过显著性检验。心理资本中城市归属感、本地人态度、对城市同龄人看法三个变量对新生代农民工市民化意愿有显著影响,而对未来变化的预期及生活满意度没有通过显著性检验。因此,在新型城镇化进程中,对新生代农民工人力资本的培育要切合其市民化发展的需要,增加农民工与市民之间的互动,加强对农民工的心理引导,促进农民工实现市民化的心理转变。     

我国新生代农民工市民化的发展路径

新生代农民工作为一支新生的社会力量,在经济发展中发挥着日益重要的作用。而在当下新生代农民工遇到的一个棘手难题是如何实现市民化,成为真正的"城市人"。本文从新生代农民工市民化的现状和影响因素两个角度展开,提出新生代农民工市民化可通过大力发展生产力、改革户籍制度、加强对新生代农民工的培训和人文关怀、适当增加新生代农民工收入、改善城市居住环境和改变对农民工的片面认识实现。     

安居方能乐业:居住类型对新生代农民工市民化意愿的影响研究

本研究基于2012年度的国家流动人口动态监测数据,对新生代农民工的居住类型与市民化意愿之间的关系进行了分析.分析发现,居住类型显著影响着新生代农民工的市民化意愿,但影响的方向取决于居住类型所代表的生活环境以及附着于居住类型之上的相关物质利益;同时,社会隔离感和社会歧视感对上述影响具有一定程度的调节作用.     

新生代农民工定居城市意愿影响因素分析

以西北四省936位新生代农民工的实地调查数据为依据,运用二元Logistic回归方法,对影响新生代农民工定居城市意愿的因素进行分析。结果显示,性别、受教育程度、工作单位性质、对居住条件的满意程度、对城市青年的态度和户籍制度对新生代农民工定居城市的意愿有显著影响,此外,婚姻状况、月储蓄、参加社会保险的情况和原住地经济水平也对新生代农民工迁移城市的意愿具有一定影响。     

城市农民工社会保障与市民化意愿

在考察城市农民工社会保障状况的基础上,利用2011年全国流动人口抽样调查数据和二元逻辑斯蒂回归模型,定量分析我国城市农民工社会保障对其市民化意愿的影响。研究发现,就业保障、社会保险、住房保障及教育保障等社会保障状况对城市农民工市民化意愿具有显著正向影响,其中尤以养老保险和子女教育等社会保障状况的影响更显著。城市农民工的年龄、婚姻状况、受教育水平等个人属性特征与迁入地发展水平、城乡收入差距等其他社会经济要素对其市民化意愿也有明显影响,年龄越大、在婚、受教育水平越高的农民工市民化意愿越强烈;迁入越发达地区的农民工市民化意愿越大;城乡收入差距越大,农民工市民化意愿越大。要实施新型城镇化规划,推进农民工市民化进程,首先要努力提高其社会保障水平,特别要改善和提高农民工养老保险和子女教育的状况和水平;同时要缩小城乡收入差距,把新型城镇化规划中的实现"1亿农民工市民化"重点放在东部地区。     

我国新生代农民工收入的区域差异研究

当前,新生代农民工已占外出农民工总数的70%以上,务工地点分布广泛。由于受到地区经济发展水平和社会文化特点的影响,其收入水平高低的影响因素也各有特点。本研究基于4 268份新生代农民工务工收入的调查问卷,对比分析东部、中部、西部和东北地区新生代农民工务工收入水平的绝对差异和相对差异,建立其收入的影响因素模型,检验异方差问题,选择最优的回归方式以检验人力资本和社会资本因素对新生代农民工务工收入的影响。结果表明,东部地区新生代农民工的绝对收入差距最大,西部地区最小,中部及东北地区的绝对收入差距处于中间位置。在相对区域差异分析中,东部和中部地区新生代农民工的相对收入差距比较大,其次为东北和西部地区。在人力资本方面,东部地区新生代农民工的务工收入受到人力资本因素的影响,中部地区主要受到务工年限和拓展性人力资本的影响,西部地区受到人力资本因素的正向影响,东北地区主要受到除学历外的基础性人力资本的正向影响,技能数起到正向影响。在社会资本方面,东部、中部和西部地区的新生代农民工的务工收入主要受拜年人数及外地同学亲友数目的影响,而东北地区则主要受拜年人数及本地同学亲友数目的影响。     

新生代农民工职业培训支付意愿的影响因素

本文基于我国西北少数民族地区外出打工的439份新生代农民工调查问卷,对新生代农民工职业培训支付意愿的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,功能价值、情感价值和社会价值能够促进新生代农民工职业培训支付意愿的形成;参照群体的信息性影响、功利性影响和价值表达性影响也能够提高新生代农民工的职业培训支付意愿;感知风险对于感知价值、参照群体影响与新生代农民工职业培训支付意愿的关系具有显著的负向调节作用。据此,相关企业和培训部门可以优先考虑从提高感知价值和调动参照群体影响着手,有针对性地设计职业培训内容、推广职业培训项目,逐步消除新生代农民工的风险隐忧,提升其人力资本的价值。     

Poverty in the Philippines: the impact of family size

The people of Asia are beginning to realize that lower fertility translates into increased family wealth and educational attainment. This is the message that population and development efforts have been focusing on. In the Philippines, the goal is to lower fertility with a strategy based on the assumption that increased capacity of the economy will support a growing population at a higher standard of living. In the Philippines, over 33% of the households have 7 or more family members, while 20% of urban and 27% of rural households have 4 or more. The risk of poverty associated with increased number of children are 44-50% for 1 child and 60-78% for those with 5. Households spend up to 10% of their total income to raise 1 child, 18% for 2, and 26% for 4 children. Because many families lack the resources to raise children the per child share drops dramatically with each child, a household with 4 children spends 25% less per child than does 1 with 2 children. Occupation also affects income as the highest poverty rates are among heads of household who are: laborers (60%) and agricultural workers (73%). The best solution is an integrated approach with increases in family planning, education, and agricultural reform.     

A discussion of the effect of development of commodity economy on rural fertility trend in the countryside]

A long-term commodity economy in China, according to this report, will help to improve family planning and to decrease the population. The new economic reforms have brought a commodity economy to rural areas of China and the result is an improved level of productivity and a higher standard of living. At this stage in China's economic development, many couples want to have more than 1 child which they could not afford before. This poses a new problem for family planning objectives. As the economy has shifted from a partially self-contained economy to a commodities-based one, more rural inhabitants want more children for the following reasons: 1) the economic system in China is based on the production of individual households (since agriculture in China today is still carried out by manual laborers, the household productivity rate is determined by the number of laborers it can provide); 2) as rural inhabitants have a higher income than before, they are no longer worried about fines; 3) decentralization reduces the governments financial resources and it is unable to follow through with, e.g., promises of 1-child family incentives and bonuses, and welfare. As a result, families do not uphold the family planning objectives. Family planning will eventually overcome these problems, however, through promotion of family planning campaigns and as the commodity economy advances and becomes more thoroughly developed. The author states that China is currently in the midst of an economic transition period which, once over, will see a decrease in the overall population.     

维吾尔族农民工创业意愿影响因素调查

论文通过问卷调查与深入访谈等方式调研155个来自新疆南北疆不同区域的维吾尔农民工创业意愿的主要影响因素,研究结果表明,维吾尔族农民工创业的意愿受到其年龄、婚姻状况、风险偏好度、职业培训状况、汉语交流能力、文化水平、家庭人口数量、家庭收入和政府政策等多种因素的影响。其中,婚姻状况、职业培训、文化程度、语言交流、家庭收入和政府政策与维吾尔族农民工创业意愿成正相关。风险偏好与家庭收入与维吾尔族农民工创业意愿成负相关。     

Immigration and informalization of the economy: Enrichment or atomization of community

The informal economy consists of those enterprises or individual workers which escape government regulation of wages, hours, labor safety and health, taxation, zoning or immigration. Estimates of the size of the informal economy loosely cluster around 6% to 12% of the GNP. Indicators of informalization are the proliferation of micro-enterprises, and heavy increases in self-employment and unpaid family workers. These indicators are strongest in major U.S. urban counties with large foreignborn populations. Providing the large labor reserve amenable to informalization has been the heavy admission of low-expectation, non-English speaking foreign workers since the late 1960s, and the subsequent inheritance by many of their U.S.- born children of similar labor market disadvantages. Abetting this transition have been deliberate government cutbacks since 1980 on enforcement of labor, immigration, safety and health standards. This article reviews the major ideological perspectives on informalization, which range from open admiration and encouragement of it as a force for economic competitiveness, to apprehension and condemnation as a form of state-condoned exploitation and an obstacle to sound development, greater income equality, community cohesion and rational economic planning.     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.     

生命历程视角下农民工留城与返乡意愿研究——基于重庆和珠三角地区的调查

本研究从生命历程的视角出发,利用2010年"农民工社会适应问题研究"课题组在重庆和珠三角地区所收集的调查数据,分析了影响农民工留城与返乡意愿的影响因素。研究发现,除了个体的能动性如教育程度和收入水平会影响其留城意愿外,与生命历程相关的出生组效应、家庭所处的生命周期以及一定的空间效应都会影响农民工的留城和返乡意愿,另外,性别因素也会导致其留城意愿的差异,文化方面的适应也会极大地影响农民工的留城意愿。     

子女随迁是否有助于改善进城农民工的营养摄入?

从"只身外出"到"举家迁徙"的农民工流动趋势转变,子女是否随迁逐渐成为进城农民工家庭面临的重要选择.本文利用"城镇外来务工人员就业和食品需求"调查数据,考察了子女随迁对进城农民工营养摄入量的影响.结果表明:在控制了收入和劳动强度等因素后,与子女未随迁的农民工相比,有子女随迁农民工的热量摄入量显著增加了4.9％,从营养摄...     

西部地区从业农民工社会养老保险需求的影响因素分析——基于西安市农民工的调查

本文从支付意愿与支付能力两个层次,提出西部地区从业农民工社会养老保险需求影响因素的假设,并以西安市农民工实际调查资料为基础,通过logistic模型对假设进行实证分析。结果表明,性别、子女数量、年龄、受教育程度对农民工社会养老保险支付意愿有显著影响;收入水平、支出水平在一定范围内对其支付能力有显著影响。总体上,西部地区从业农民工对社会养老保险的支付意愿与支付能力并不强烈,社会养老保险的有效需求尚未形成。     

农民工收入地域差异对留守老人养老保障的影响

西部农民工选择到经济发达的东部城市务工以期获得理想的收入．用以改善家庭生活。然而就业地域的不同选择所引致的收入反差，使农民工不得不考虑其选择务工地区的距离和自身的成本。文章通过对以广东、安徽、甘肃三省为代表的在东、中、西三地区务工农民工收入的比较研究。结果表明西部地区农民工为获得理想的高收入而选择东部城市务工，实际中却是在东部城市务工收入要低于在中、西部城市的收入。并重点对这一困境如何对留守老人养老造成影响进行分析。     

劳务经济与资源经济结合的农民增收模式——以重庆市为例

本文通过对重庆农村居民收入构成状况的分析发现：劳务收入与家庭经营收入是重庆农村居民人均纯收入的主要来源,但家庭经营收入在农民人均纯收入中所占比重不断下降;究其原因在于劳务经济与资源经济发展严重脱节,重庆市在劳务经济迅速发展的同时,资源经济发展相对滞后,从而影响农民人均纯收入持久稳定增长。为此,本文提出建立劳务经济与资源经济结合的农村居民持续增收模式。