Life table construction on the basis of two enumerations of a closed population

The author demonstrates that an accurate detailed life table that represents average mortality experience between two censuses can be constructed if the censuses provide accurate records of the single-year age distribution of a closed population. This life table can begin at age zero if accurate data on the annual number of births during the inter-censal period are available; otherwise the first age in the life table must equal the duration of time between the censuses. "The estimation technique involves the calculation of the number of persons attaining each age during the period between the censuses and the determination of the average rate of increase in the number at each individual age. The success of the technique comes from the use of interpolation to calculate how many in each cohort attain each exact age the cohort passes through between the censuses." The estimation technique is tested using two alternative methods of interpolation. Some illustrations based on data for Sweden and China are included.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses

The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population's average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.     

Population registers and population statistics

The authors examine the use of population registers in the production of demographic statistics. "To do this, we first describe these registers; we then examine their further development as an independent source of population statistics--including current population estimates, vital and migration statistics--and as an alternative to population censuses. In conclusion, we consider a number of essential features of registers, including the original collection of data, the system's lifetime, privacy protection, and the government's ability to bring about a balance among conflicting interests regarding the collection and use of the data." The discussion is illustrated using examples from the Netherlands and Denmark.     

The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality

Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns.     

A census-based method for estimating adult mortality

Abstract A simple method is presented for converting an age distribution in any closed population into the stationary population corresponding to its current mortality conditions. The conversion only requires a set of age-specific growth rates, which will normally be available from successive censuses. From the stationary population, any life table mortality measure of interest can be computed. The index most robust to normal data errors in developing countries is life expectancy, and the paper focuses on its calculation. The sensitivity of results to various forms of data error is considered, and procedures are proposed for removing errors resulting from differential census coverage completeness and from age misstatement at older ages. Applications of the procedures are made to data from Sweden, India and South Korea. Because of the absence of a radix, estimation of life expectancy usually will begin at the fifth birthday.     

AHP法在人口素质评价中的应用研究

学界通常利用PQLI与HDI指数来测度人口素质,这两指数虽然涉及人口素质指标,但并不能涵盖人口素质丰富的内容,而且这两指标权重值的确定也带有一定主观性。本文把AHP法应用于人口素质评价的分析中,在全面构建人口素质指标体系的基础上,利用AHP法确定权重值,这样不仅可以全面地理解人口素质内容,还可以提高人口素质评价的准确性。     

生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势

人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。     

Mortality and fertility in Arctic Communities Greenland - A case study

Summary The purpose of this paper is to estimate the present level of mortality and fertility as well as its history amongst the indigenous population of Greenland during the period 1834-1953 on the basis of a series of censuses taken during that time. Mortality and fertility parameters have been estimated by techniques particularly suited for the analysis of incomplete demographic data - e.g. stable population analysis. During the period studied Greenland was a Danish colony. It did not become constitutionally part of Denmark until 1953. The paper shows that even though the importance of Danish - and other European - influence should not be underestimated, the socio-economic structure of Greenland was relatively stable until 1953. The results show an extremely high mortality and a correspondingly high fertility. There is also evidence that mortality fluctuated considerably during the period. This might also be true of fertility, but it is impossible to establish this by means of the techniques used. These results are supported by an analysis of registrations of births and deaths for part of the period. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the validity of the techniques of estimation, having regard to the nature of the Greenland censuses. It is pointed out that the empirical material from which model stable populations must have been constructed varies somewhat from that applicable to an Arctic population.     

Estimating the completeness of death registration

Summary Death registration statistics, even when incomplete, can provide valuable information about mortality. In particular, the age structure of deaths can be used to estimate the completeness of registration, provided that this completeness does not vary substantially with age. Two methods of estimating the completeness of death registration from the distribution of deaths by age are described. The first is derived from stable population theory and requires an estimate of the rate of natural increase of the population, as well as assuming stability. However, the technique can also be used to generate simultaneously estimates of the rate of natural increase and of death registration completeness. The second method which requires two census age distributions and intercensal deaths by age, estimates the relative enumeration completeness of the two censuses as well as the completeness of death registration and requires only that the population be closed. Results are sensitive to overstatement of age. The methods are illustrated by being applied to figures from Thailand for the period 1960-70 and are found to work satisfactorily.     

Measuring Residential Segregation With the ACS: How the Margin of Error Affects the Dissimilarity Index

The American Community Survey (ACS) provides valuable, timely population estimates but with increased levels of sampling error. Although the margin of error is included with aggregate estimates, it has not been incorporated into segregation indexes. With the increasing levels of diversity in small and large places throughout the United States comes a need to track accurately and study changes in racial and ethnic segregation between censuses. The 2005–2009 ACS is used to calculate three dissimilarity indexes (D) for all core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) in the United States. We introduce a simulation method for computing segregation indexes and examine them with particular regard to the size of the CBSAs. Additionally, a subset of CBSAs is used to explore how ACS indexes differ from those computed using the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Findings suggest that the precision and accuracy of D from the ACS is influenced by a number of factors, including the number of tracts and minority population size. For smaller areas, point estimates systematically overstate actual levels of segregation, and large confidence intervals lead to limited statistical power.     

Measuring spatial focusing in a migration system

Equality indexes used in other geographical contexts may be used to gauge the degree of spatial focusing in an entire migration system or within the gross in- and out-migration fields of specific regions. They provide useful indicators of overall shifts in the patterns of interregional migration and can help give insight into the population redistributive roles played by specific regions. Perhaps the most common equality index used to measure income distribution is the Gini coefficient, yet it appears almost never to have been applied in migration research. In this paper we set forth a variety of Gini indexes to be used for different migration analyses and illustrate their application with recent data on U.S. interstate movements. We argue that the Gini index provides some singularly useful insights that differ from those afforded by other measures more commonly found to date in the migration analyst’ s toolkit.     

The strange history and problematic future of the Australian census

When looking back into the first century of Australian history following white settlement we often rely on the records of musters, listings and censuses to provide information on individuals and communities. The first census of New South Wales in 1828 was little more than a directory of names of settlers and settlements, but both professional historians and genealogists regard it as invaluable. As the scientific principles of censuses were developed over the course of the nineteenth century the information collected became ever more important for social scientists and economists. In the twentieth century, professional historians in the UK and USA opened wholly new perspectives on society by looking to the census for records of common families who were not recorded in the newspapers or diaries of the time, and the community structures in which they lived. Unfortunately such innovations have not been possible in Australia. The individual records of most colonial and all Commonwealth censuses are not to be found in the libraries or archives. The destruction of original census records in Australia has been the result of misadventure and government policies reflecting great fear about the impact of popular privacy concerns on public compliance with the census operations. This paper explores the history behind the anomalous practice of destroying census records in Australia, and poses questions about the role of the census in the writing of histories of Australian people and Australian communities.     

The new census question about ancestry: What did it tell us?

In addition to specific inquiries about race and Spanish origin, the censuses of 1980 and 1990 included an open-ended question about ancestry, which replaced the question about parents' place of birth that had been used since 1870. This paper examines findings from the new ancestry question from the perspective of measuring ethnicity. The question adds little information about Hispanics, racial minorities, or recent immigrants, who can be identified readily on the basis of other census inquiries. The ancestry question allows us to characterize the descendants of European immigrants, but because of ethnic intermarriage, the numerous generations that separate present respondents from their forebears, and the apparent unimportance of ancestry to many whites of European origin, responses appear quite inconsistent. In regard to these groups, we may now be in an era of optional ethnicity, in which no simple census question will distinguish those who identify strongly with a specific European group from those who report symbolic or imagined ethnicity.     

Demographic transition and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh

The aim of this paper is to examine the demographic transition and the emerging window of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh. The study utilizes time series data from national level population surveys, censuses and the population projections and estimates produced by the United Nations Population Division. The ongoing demographic transition in Bangladesh leads to many changes in the size and age structure of the rapidly growing population of the country, giving rise to economic and social opportunities as well as policy challenges. The window of opportunity that has emerged since the 1990s will not last long and will not be repeated in the near future. It will reach its peak during the 2020s and will remain open until the 2030s. This demographic dividend needs to be managed efficiently in order to be transformed into better and sustainable economic growth. Understanding demographic challenges must therefore be a priority for the Government of Bangladesh, which must formulate policies to harvest the benefits of the demographic opportunities.     

Literacy and Gender: Development Success Stories

The adult literacy rate, a commonly used indicator of male and female literacy, gives an unnecessarily incomplete picture of progress toward gender equality and universal literacy. Age‐specific literacy rates provide evidence of changing male and female literacy for up to seven decades prior to a census. When available for two or more successive censuses, they provide a powerful test of data quality. In Malawi, the gender gap in literacy disappeared in 2000, and near‐universal literacy is likely to be achieved during the present decade. Much the same is true of El Salvador. The gender gap in Vietnam had dwindled to insignificance by the early 1980s. In Morocco, the gap narrowed steadily between 1940 and 2000 and may disappear by 2015. Despite these successes, adult literacy rates may take another half century or more to reach similar levels. This lag is a consequence of the intrinsic population dynamics of literacy.     

[The situation of China's urban and rural population].]

The accuracy of measurements of the ratio of urban to rural population in China is critically assessed, using data from the 1953, 1964, and 1982 censuses. As explanations for the inaccuracies, the author points to political conditions and to the use of different measurements at different points in time.     

An evaluation of bridging methods using race data from Census 2000

The question on race from Census 2000 was different from previous censuses because it allowed respondents to select one or more races to indicate their racial identities. Because of this change, the race data from Census 2000 are not directly comparable with data from earlier censuses. Researchers can use `bridging' methods to assign more than one race respondents to single race categories to maximize the comparability of Census 2000 race data with earlier censuses. This paper uses several bridging methods to generate race population estimates and analyzes the variability in those estimates across six single race groups.     

How censuses aid policymakers

The author discusses the eleventh Asian and Pacific Population Census Conference, held in 1986 in Sydney and Canberra, Australia. The focus of the meeting was on the value of census data for analyzing social policy issues; participants included population experts from Asian and Pacific countries, Canada, and the United States. Topics include literacy measurement, fertility and mortality estimation, studies of the elderly, and preparations for the 1990 round of censuses, including information processing and increased use of automation.