金融网络的模型和优化

金融网络就是经济系统中资金循环,文献[1-8]研究了金融网络的模型。本文则在文献[1-8]金融网络模型的基础之上,建立了资产、负债、适度规模和价格的改进模型。这一改进模型考虑了所有经济部门的金融工具的风险、金融网络的经济资源约束、资产和负债的会计帐户约束等问题。模型的改进适用于应用。文章采用了进化规划算法,并依此进行仿真实验。     

Planning models in the UK: A survey

This paper presents the results of a survey on the use of computer-based models in the broad areas of planning and strategy formulation in UK companies. This survey updates and complements other recent surveys, which exclusively considered the use of corporate models, and shows a continued increase in the numbers of these models in use. In particular, models in the following broad categories were examined: forecasting, marketing, personnel, production and models of ‘one-off’ situations, as well as corporate and financial models. For such models the paper includes details of: frequencies of occurrence and relationship to company size; professional roles of the model-builders and users respectively; frequencies of use. In these and more subjective ways, the survey attempts to assess the place and value of computers in planning.     

Short-term foreign exchange risk management: Zero net exposure models

By balancing the relevant end of period assets and liabilities (i.e. a zero net exposure approach to foreign exchange risk management) the multinational corporate treasurer can, conservatively, protect against parity fluctuations without requiring exchange rate forecasts. This paper presents two goal programming formulations for short-term money management and evaluates the resulting strategies (via simulation) in terms of their impact on corporate profits. A hypothetical multinational corporation with headquarters in the US and subsidiaries in Canada, West Germany, and the United Kingdom serves as the experimental unit. The results suggest that the zero net exposure approach is no better than a naive ‘dart-throwing’ approach.     

金融网络下投资组合风险及最优规模研究

从资本市场互联的网络角度,讨论金融资产组合优化与均衡规模问题. 在金融资产与负 债非平衡条件下,给出单个部门的投资规模、投资风险控制模型. 从金融网络角度,分析多部门 间金融工具的均衡问题,建立描述系统均衡规模、均衡价格的模型. 并在不同投资效用函数下, 求解单个部门及多部门模型的最优解.     

A specific accounting approach for public universities

Many universities in Germany and other countries have introduced financial (or commercial) accounting to manage effectively their finances. It aligns with so-called new public sector management reforms worldwide. In this paper we analyze whether the components of this type of financial accounting reform suit the nature and objectives of German public universities. While the analysis mainly relates to the German situation, there are likely to be implications for public universities universally. Drawing on an analysis of the reports of two well known German-speaking universities, Heidelberg and Vienna, we analyze whether the components of the new financial accounting reforms suit the nature and objectives of those public universities. While we argue that cash-flow statements and balance sheets remain important, it is shown that it is necessary for state-run educational institutions to change several key elements of traditional commercial accounting. Because the success goals of such universities are non-profit-oriented, their financial accounting should be augmented by a ‘change in value statement’, replacing the traditional income statement. As their valuation cannot be correlated with the definition of profit in (German) public universities this term is suggested. By change in value we mean specifically that assets may experience a total loss or a decrease in value. In management accounting output measures and performance indicators should substitute revenues as the counterpart of costs. Furthermore, long-term financial decisions play a crucial role in universities. Therefore, a form of investment accounting is very important for them. The conventional form has to be modified by ‘investment statements’ and ‘knowledge balances’ of their intellectual capital. In this paper we also show how the concept of a balanced scorecard can be applied to public universities and how specific accounting instruments can be integrated into it.     

A computerized financial planning model for a health maintenance organization

The time and resource costs needed to plan and start a prepaid medical program or health maintenance organization (HMO) are extensive. It can take up to 3 years to bring one on line and another 3 to 4 years to reach financial stability. Depending on the type of prepaid medical plan designed, the cost can reach $6 to $8 million before breakeven occurs. Because the financial stakes are so high, a systematic and sound business approach must be taken to find that one ‘best’ design that will survive in the market place. Thousands of hours are required to study all of the possible HMO design configurations. This paper describes how a corporation constructed a computerized financial planning model to simulate the financial behavior of a prepaid medical program with different organizational formats, operational policies and pricing and compensation schemes in varying market, economic and cost environments. Model development and application was a corporate affair. The computerized model provided a special design team with the capability to evaluate the economic impact of many different designs by asking ‘what if’ questions dealing with several key design and operating variables concerning different health benefit options, service utilization rates, staffing patterns, inflation rates and price and premium schedules. Thousands of hours of design time were saved and the corporation was able to find the ‘best’ possible design in a reasonable time and at a reasonable cost.     

Mitigating the environmental and social footprint of brownfields: The case for a peripheral CSR approach

Industrial plant closures create a largely unexplored challenge for corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy. Such plant closures lead to brownfield sites: economic assets and large pieces of land that often cannot be redeployed for alternative purposes, except by incurring significant costs. The direct effects of plant closures typically include a rise in unemployment and value chain disturbance (or dismantling), but brownfields are usually also associated with additional social effects and environmental pollution. Here, a proactive CSR strategy means reducing or mitigating the joint, negative social and environmental footprint of industrial plant closures beyond what is mandated by law (which has tended primarily to address direct effects). We assess the various strategies firms can pursue to mitigate negative, post-closure footprints and we distinguish between two alternative strategic options beyond the ‘legal obligations’ approach, namely the ‘core business related’ (core) CSR approach, and the ‘peripheral CSR’ approach. We explore the case of a plant closure by Bekaert S.A., a large, Belgian industrial firm, which adopted a peripheral CSR approach to manage and redevelop a brownfield site. In this context, we identify four enabling conditions for peripheral CSR to be implemented effectively.     

Sustaining the Financial Value of Global CSR: Reconciling Corporate and Stakeholder Interests in a Less Regulated Environment

In this article we examine the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and firm value. This line of research is important since firms continue to invest in CSR even though past studies reveal a limited linkage between financial value and CSR. However, the business case for CSR or “doing good while making a profit,” appears to be advancing within the business ethics literature as a preferred conception of CSR. We conjecture that the greater unification and refinement of both profit maximization and stakeholder interests through corporate acts, not statements alone, will sustain the financial value of CSR in a less regulated global business environment. We study the triangle of what companies say, what companies do, and firm financial performance. We analyze Fortune 250 firms and find a positive association between what companies do based on KLD Research and Analytics, Inc. (KLD) ratings, and what companies state about ethics in their CSR statements. We then employ regression analysis and find that companies’ socially responsible acts are positively associated with overall firm value and financial performance. Yet we do not find a statistically significant association between what companies say regarding ethics in their CSR statements and their financial outcomes. These results suggest that firm value and financial performance is associated with what companies do and not what they say. Our results seem to be driven by multinational corporations (MNCs) and not by non‐MNCs. This is possibly because MNCs generally operate in a less regulated global business environment that often necessitates strong ethical corporate leadership to further stakeholder interests. Overall, these results help reconcile corporate and stakeholder objectives since evidence of a link between financial performance and doing good sustains global CSR.     

现金流量在财务困境预测中的信息含量实证研究——来自2003-2004年度ST公司的新证据

本文选取2003-2004年度60家财务困境样本和120家非财务困境样本,分别运用单变量和多变量logistic分析检验了现金流量信息在财务困境预测中的相对信息含量和增量信息含量,研究发现:(1)在我国上市公司陷入财务困境前1年,经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产报酬率和资产周转率,其预测效率优于其它应计制会计变量;(2)无论在财务困境前1年还是前2年,现金流量类变量在会计比率的基础上均具有显著的增量信息含量。本文的研究结果显示,从财务困境预测研究的角度看,充分挖掘现金流量信息的预测价值应成为未来此类研究的方向;从投资者角度看,现金流量表为投资者提供了决策有用的信息。     

A simulation system for corporate planning

This paper describes the structure and use of a general purpose simulation package developed for the interactive construction of dynamic computer-based simulation models. The package consists of a system of computer programs written in the BASIC language for a Digital PDP 11/70 time-sharing computer.The framework upon which the package is based is essentially an amalgamation of the System Dynamics and Input-Output approaches to the modelling of complex organizations. Networks of levels and flows provide the basis for dynamic, modular representation, while matrix algebra features provide the basis for aggregational flexibility and the analysis of multi- product multi-process industrial systems.The package is designed to provide planning managers with the ability to construct flexible models, localized or ‘corporate’, financial or non-financial, without the need for any programming in the conventional sense. A flow diagram of the system to be modelled guides the model builder in responding to computer terminal prompts which determine the model structure as a set of programmed relationships. This in turn gives rise to a further series of prompts at the terminal for the entry of all data pertinent to the model. Model editing and computation then proceeds, with user interaction, if desired, for amendments, monitoring of computations, and report generation.Two specific applications of the package are discussed in the latter part of the paper, and sample output from runs of both of the resultant models is provided.     

THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF PRODUCTIVITY AND DEMAND SHOCKS IN THE US ECONOMY

This paper analyzes the cross‐country effects of productivity and demand disturbances in the United States identified with sign restrictions based on standard theory. Productivity gains in US manufacturing increase US consumption and investment vis‐à‐vis foreign countries, resulting in a trade deficit and higher international prices of US goods, despite the rise in their supply. Financial adjustment works via a higher global value of US equities, real dollar appreciation, and an expansion of US gross foreign liabilities as well as assets. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also increase investment and cause a real dollar appreciation, but have limited effects on the trade balance and net foreign assets. Our findings emphasize the importance for macroeconomic interdependence of endogenous fluctuations in aggregate demand across countries in response to business cycle shocks.     

Income determination for corporate tax purposes using IFRS as a starting point: evidence for listed companies within Austria, Germany, and The Netherlands

The internationalisation of financial accounting and the European Commission’s ambition to harmonise corporate taxation have raised the question whether IFRS accounts could be used for tax purposes. In order to quantify the effects of an IFRS-based taxation on corporate tax burdens in different EU member states, we estimate firms’ tax equity using notes on income taxes in IFRS financial statements of companies listed in Austria, Germany, and The Netherlands. The difference between estimated tax equity and IFRS-equity, adjusted for the effect resulting from the recognition of deferred taxes, shows the effect of using IFRS as a tax base on the present value of corporate taxes. We find that estimated tax equity is mostly lower than IFRS-equity, indicating that an IFRS-based taxation would often increase the present value of corporate taxes. The median of estimated tax equity is 5.6 % (Austria), 6.4 % (Germany) and 9.0 % (The Netherlands) below IFRS-equity. However, an IFRS-based taxation does not always induce higher equity as often argued in the literature. In 307 of 1,113 totally analysed firm-years, estimated tax equity exceeds IFRS-equity. To find a further estimation for the effects of tax base reforms we also approximate the total stock of unused tax losses and the amount of useable tax losses. We find that deferred tax assets for unused tax losses are depreciated to a substantial extent.     

Assessing corporate governance quality: substance over form

After the 2008 global financial crisis and corporate scandals, assessing and improving corporate governance quality (CGQ) is essential. This paper proposes a different approach to evaluate CGQ, to overcome the conceptual and methodological limits of the previous rating systems. It tries to go beyond the objectives of the existing models by suggesting an alternative operating model, (aligned with the new CG guidelines) that provides a concise index for monitoring and decision-making. Using a Fuzzy Expert System (FES), the authors propose a formalized model that: (1) represents all the factors (structural and behavioral) that affect the quality of corporate governance in terms of practical and objective decision-making procedure; (2) is a flexible and useful management tool for supporting the “Board review” and assessing the increase in CGQ associated with particular decisions; (3) supervisors can use to assess CG adequacy by replacing or integrating the experts’ opinions with interviews/questionnaires filled in by directors and managers or through direct observation, as recently suggested by EBA/ESMA. This paper highlights the importance of behavioral features and group dynamics in corporate governance and represents them in an integrated model together with other structural and organizational elements.     

An Effectual–Causal View of Managerial Decisions in the Internationalization of Indian MNEs

We use effectuation theory to understand the internationalization of emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs), specifically answering the questions of: (a) how managerial decision logic differs across EMNEs that face disadvantages vs. those that do not, and (b) what managerial decision logic helps EMNEs to mitigate disadvantages. We employ a case research approach to analyze decision events across eight firms that internationalized from India between 1990 and 2015. We find that EMNEs are attuned to welcoming and leveraging surprises in order to transform challenging markets into opportunities; form cautious partnerships with self-selecting stakeholders, and; balance all-or-nothing opportunities with losses they can afford. Furthermore, while EMNEs adopt relatively balanced effectual-causal actions to mitigate the liability of multinationality (LoM), they are more effectual than causal in mitigating the liabilities of foreignness (LoF) and liabilities of origin (LoR).     

Strategies for planning

In recent years there has been a good deal of discussion amongst planning specialists and academics about the gap which exists between the theory of planning as set out in journals and textbooks, and the practice of planning in private and public organizations. Planners are continually complaining about the resistance to planning by top management and operating managers in divisions and departments.In this article the author aims to produce a reconciliation between theory and practice and to discuss what alternative strategies are open to planners in devising planning systems for their organizations.He suggests that the problem has its origin in the fact that corporate planning theory was first developed by management scientists as a total systems approach. Corporate planners have failed to sell an integrated planning system either as programme budgeting or as corporate planning. Research suggests that a management team can only adopt and implement a comprehensive planning system in very special circumstances, e.g. when the organization's survival is threatened, a new management team has been appointed and the staff of the organization are ready to accept radical change.In normal circumstances the planner is wrong to advocate a ‘root and branch’ solution. He must diagnose the planning needs of the organization and his objective must be not merely to establish a particular planning procedure but rather to discover how he can best improve the quality of management decisions.Recent studies on strategy formation indicate that the introduction of a formal planning procedure is only a partial answer to the problem of improving the quality of management decisions.The paper reviews various approaches to planning and considers how they relate to organizations with different strategic problems, with differing organization structures and various management styles.     

The V-matrix—A new tool for plotting earnings

The purpose of this article is to extend some of the ideas of Ciaran Walsh and Edward Mock presented in their article ‘Setting Corporate Objectives Using Required Market Earnings’ (Long Range Planning, Vol. 12 No. 5). It takes as its starting point the approach suggested by Walsh and Mock and developed a new type of corporate planning matrix: the V Matrix. It is hoped that the V Matrix will be a useful tool to help corporate planners quickly analyze past trends, assess their present position and plan future strategic actions.     

The human side of merger planning

This article argues that chief executive officers and staff planners must more explicitly integrate ‘change planning’ with the other dimensions of merger planning (e.g. financial, marketing) if implementation is to be successful. Based on recent research, guidelines for gaining acceptance of merger are presented and discussed. The need to distinguish between gaining initial acceptance, on the one hand, and continuing acceptance on the other is stressed, and the guidelines carry forward that distinction. Such guidelines should be integrated into the overall strategic plan developed for merger.     

Participative planning at Swiss reinsurance

Reinsurance—the insurance of insurance companies—is very much a behind-the-scenes business. It is not surprising to see that planning seminars and planning literature rarely touch on the problems of developing and implementing corporate planning models in this field. The Swiss Reinsurance planning example might show how sources from various industries and ‘doctrines’ were blended together and built to form a compact medium-term planning ‘package’ for a very specific type of service business.     

Designing computer models that work

The techniques of financial modelling are becoming more popular and accepted as a useful information processing tool. However, what is ‘financial modelling’ and does the term adequately describe current applications? Why has financial modelling been such a growth area and what are the benefits? Given a desire to build models, where does the manager begin? What type of system and language should be used and by whom? What type of computing facility is most suitable? Which modelling system should be selected and what features are important? As well as an increase in the number of financial modelling applications they are now more complex. What guidelines can one use when designing large and complex models? This article seeks to answer these questions, concentrating on the large and more complex models, particularly for long term planning and budgeting applications. Finally an example is given illustrating how a large modelling system can be constructed and maintained with little technical computer expertise.     

Vocabularies of Motive and Temporal Perspectives: Examples of Pension Fund Engagement and Disengagement

Prior research on institutional investors’ role in corporate governance draws a distinction between engaged and disengaged pension funds. The aim of this study was to shed more light on how pension fund practitioners talk about engagement and disengagement. Using insights from 35 in‐depth, semi‐structured interviews and round‐table discussions with pension fund trustees, executives, investment officers and financial intermediaries, we identify different types of vocabularies and temporal perspectives used to account for different stances towards engagement. We highlight a tension between a seemingly causal relationship between accounts and future behaviour and argue that these ‘accounts’, ‘vocabularies’ and ‘uses of the past’ in themselves need to be treated as an object of study because they may represent not simply the individual motivations but rather the expressions of extant norms in the broader social context of financial markets. An important policy implication is that perceived realities of investment are unlikely to cause a change in pension fund behaviour because participants seem to decouple their view of the world from their impact on the world.