中国第六次人口普查长寿人口研究

文章利用第六次人口普查资料,对比第五次人口普查,以65岁以上老年人口为基数,统计分析90岁、100岁长寿人口。文章认为,长寿人口总体规模呈快速增长趋势;两次人口普查长寿人口地区分布基本一致;沿海经济发达地区的长寿人口比例比西北一些省份高;华南沿海地区的长寿老人比例两次普查都比较高,地理区位特点显著;第六次人口普查显示城市与乡村长寿人口趋于一致。对中国100万人口以上的19个民族长寿人口研究结果显示,90岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:回族、壮族、黎族、瑶族、维吾尔族。100岁以上长寿老人排序前五位的民族有:黎族、维吾尔族、瑶族、傣族、回族。长寿人口健康状况研究显示,90岁以上长寿老人22%生活不能自理,100岁以上长寿老人29.2%生活不能自理。     

Population aging raises questions for policymakers

This issue of Asia-Pacific Population and Policy examines the size of the elderly population in Asia and projections for the next 50 years. It discusses some of the characteristics of Asia's elderly population. Information is based on a study of population momentum and population aging at the East-West Center prepared by the UN for the 32 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia with populations of 150,000 or more. Demographic analysis revealed that the population aged 65 and above are projected to increase during 2000-50 by about 3% per year; of all Asians aged 55 and older, roughly one-half are now between the ages of 55 and 64, about one-third are between 65 and 74, and almost one-sixth are 75 and above. In most countries of Asia, older women are outnumbered by older men. Among the population aged 55 and above, there are about 90 men for every 100 women and among those aged 75 and above, there are only about 70 men for every 100 women. This analysis of demographic data suggests that the elderly population will expand dramatically in Asia over the next 50 years. This changing situation poses a challenge for policy makers in the provision of personal care and financial support for Asia's growing elderly population.     

中国人口老龄化的“二高三大”特征及对策探讨

本文分析讨论了我国 2 1世纪上半叶人口老龄化的“二高三大”特征。 (一 )高速 :65岁及以上老年人口占总人口比例高速增长———从目前的 7%增加到 2 0 5 0年的 2 3%左右。 (二 )高龄 :80岁及以上高龄老人比例以大约等于 65岁及以上老人增长速度的两倍超高速增长。 (三 )老人数量大 :本世纪中叶我国 65岁及以上老人将超过 3 3亿 ,80岁及以上老人将超过 1亿。 (四 )老年抚养比大 :本世纪中叶我国老年人口与劳动年龄人口之比将等于目前的 3～ 4倍。 (五 )地区差异大 :由于人口迁移的影响 ,我国农村老人比例将高于城镇 ,相当一部分欠发达省区的老人比例将高于全国平均水平。本文还就农村社会养老保障、充分发扬家庭养老优良传统、老年照料政策应适当向女性老人倾斜等方面阐述了对策性思考与建议。     

America's elderly

The older population in the US has grown twice as fast as the rest of the population in the last 20 years. This growth is expected to accelerate early in the next century as the large baby boom cohorts move through middle age and become elderly. Today, about 1 in 8 Americans is 65 years of age or older. By 2030, 1 out of every 4 persons will be in older person. Substantial improvements in life expectancy at all ages, particularly at extreme old age, mean that not only will there be a greater proportion of elderly in the population, but the more will be the "oldest-old," over 85. By 2050, they will be more than 1/4 of the population. As people live longer, many are active and healthy well past retirement. However, many individuals living into their 80s have to cope with chronic disabilities affecting their capacity to perform day-to-day activities. Modern medicine has made great inroads against mortality from such illnesses as heart disease and stroke, but has not eliminated all the effects of these diseases. As the population ages, the issues of health care funding and availability, particularly long-term care, increase in importance. Contrary to widespread belief, the elderly are not abandoned by their families to nursing home care. The vast majority--95%--live in the community. Those needing assistance generally receive help from family and friends. This has created a tremendous demand for federal subsidies to support community-based long-term care services. 1/4 of the federal budget is now spent on the elderly--$270 billion in 1986. Medicaid and Medicare are among the government's success stories, but these programs are threatened by their very success. Economists estimate that government expenditures are 3 times greater for the elderly than for children, raising the issue of "intergenerational equity"--how to balance the amount of care society provides to those who have already contributed with what is provided to those who will contribute in the future. The view that the young and old simply compete for fixed resources is misleading. It ignores the interdependence among generations, and the burdens and benefits of intergenerational transfers at all stages of the life course.     

中国步入人口老龄化社会的经济学思考

按国际划分标准,一个国家如果60岁以上的老年人或65岁以上的老年人在总人口中的比例如果分别超过了10%或7%的话,即可看作达到了人口老龄化。中国的人口老龄化的势头正在引起全世界关注。当21世纪钟声敲响的时候,我国已经进入人口老龄型国家。目前我国老年人口有1.3亿,占世界老年人口的五分之一,并且继续以年均3.2%的速度递增。预计到2010年,我国的老年人口将达到2.3亿。到2040年,我国老年人口将达到4亿,占总人口的1/4。发展老年产业是关乎构建和谐社会、维系社会安定以及弘扬中华民族优良传统的大事业,迫在眉睫。     

Aging in Japan: population policy implications

This article was prepared for the International Conference on Aging in the East and West in 1995. The focus is on trends in aging in Japan and demographic determinants and consequences. Findings are presented from a 1990 study conducted by the Institute of Population Problems on acceptance of alternative population policies aimed to slow population aging in Japan. Japan is the seventh most populous country in the world, and the current growth rate is around 0.3%. Declines in fertility and mortality have contributed to the low growth rate. Population aging accelerated over the decades. The present share of aged population is 14.1%. The aged population is expected to continue to increase from 14.9 million in 1990 to 32.7 million in 2020 (25.8% in 2025). Decreases in the aged population are not expected until after the mid-2040s. The proportion of very old (ages 75 years and older) will dramatically increase to 14.5% in 2025. The primary demographic determinant of population aging and fertility decline is identified as the higher proportion of never-married and the higher age at marriage. One of the consequences of population aging is the increase in the age dependency ratios and the aged-child ratios. The proportion of intergenerationally extended households declined over time, but the pace of decline has slowed recently. The proportion of aged in one person or couple only households has risen but not to the same extent as the West. The majority of older old still live with a married child. Logistic analysis of 1985 survey data reveal that the custom of the elderly living with the eldest child remains. The 1985 survey also revealed much indecision about a pronatalist policy or a fertility policy. Logistic analysis of 1990 public opinion survey data shows acceptance of immigration as a policy alternative to slowing population aging. Acceptance varied by socioeconomic, demographic, and regional factors. A pronatalist policy received stronger acceptance. However, reference is made to Kojima's literature review, which suggests that indirect policies on fertility and a comprehensive family policy would be more effective in raising fertility than a population policy.     

Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

人口老龄化、老年贫困与养老保障--基于德国的数据与经验

人口老龄化及老年女性比重较高增加了老年贫困的概率。对此，德国主要采取两项对策避免老年贫困：养老保障是第一道防线，里斯特／吕鲁普养老金、最低养老金等都是重要的政策选项；社会救助提供了最后一道有效安全网。借鉴德国经验，中国应通过完善多支柱模式并逐步扩大第二支柱比重、养老保险参量改革、建立老年低收入群体收入保护机制、建立健全老年社会救助制度等措施来有效解决人口老龄化过程中老年人特别是老年低收入群体的养老保障问题，有效规避老年贫困风险。     

新疆生产建设兵团团场老年人口分布研究

基于2010年第六次人口普查数据,研究了新疆生产建设兵团（简称兵团）十三个师所属团场65岁及以上老年人口的年龄分布、性别分布和地域分布。兵团团场2010年老年人口总数为18.3万人,占团场总人口的10.4%,性别比为113.3,年龄中位数为72.1岁。兵团团场的人口年龄结构属于老年型,老年人口比重、老少比和老年抚养比的空间分布不均衡,北疆团场比南疆和东疆团场高。虽然单位土地面积上老年人口的分布不均衡,但是,单位耕地面积上老年人口的分布是均衡的。兵团团场老年人口密度为2.7人/平方公里（土地面积）和17.6人/平方公里（耕地面积）。人口老龄化对北疆团场经济社会发展和养老保障的压力将不断增大,对兵团承担屯垦戍边及保障新疆长治久安任务提出了新的挑战。     

基于新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型的重庆市人口老龄化预测研究

重庆市老龄化率居全国之首，老年人口数继续呈上升趋势，解决养老问题，发展养老产业势在必行。文章对重庆市65岁及以上老年人口数进行预测，通过GM（1，1）基础模型和新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型，在充分考虑扰动因素和驱动因素等新信息影响的基础上，借助Matlab软件编程计算和检验，对重庆市2015～2020年65岁及以上老年人口进行预测。预测结果表明：2015～2020年间重庆市65岁及以上老年人口数不断增长，2020年将突破400万人，说明重庆未来养老形势异常严峻，并对此针对性提出对策建议。模型精度检验表明模型精度为一级，模型预测结果可靠性高、可信度强，模型适合人口中长期预测。     

On population aging in China

By 2040, the proportion of the elderly in China's population will be 20.9%. 3 problems that must be discussed are 1) the cost of supporting this large number of elderly people, 2) the relative decrease in the working population, and 3) the increased problems of older people. In 2040, the proportion of the working population will be 63.5% of the population, the aged will form 20.8% of the population, and children will form 15.7%. In 1982, the proportions were 61.6% working ages, 4.9% elderly, and 33.6% children. Expenditures on dependent aged people in the future will balance that on children now because elderly people do not remain consumers as long as children do and children's educations, cost more than health care for the elderly does. The standstill or decrease in the absolute number of people will lead to a stop in the growth of the absolute number of the working population. Production will then depend on the quality rather than the quantity of population. A low standard of living and backward social welfare facilities are problems in caring for the aged in China today. What is now being practiced in China in caring for the aged is a combined system of care by the individual, the collective, and the state. The overwhelming majority of the rural elderly are supported by their families, while the majority of the urban elderly are supported by the collective.     

台湾地区人口老龄化下长期护理政策及走向

1993年台湾地区65岁以上老年人口占总人口比例为7%,成为我国最早进入人口老龄化的地区之一。伴随着老年慢性病盛行、老年人生活方式的变化以及家庭照料负担日益沉重,老年人长期护理服务开始转变为较为严重的社会风险。为此,台湾推行了一系列长期护理服务政策,包括居家护理、社区护理以及护理产业的商业化运作等。这些政策取得一些积极的社会效果,但也存在着"有效需求"不足、长期护理服务投资意愿不强、福利成分丧失等问题。为了妥善解决老年人长期护理服务难题,台湾正在启动长期护理保险的立法计划并组建筹备小组展开前期的研究与论证工作。     

中国台湾地区人口老龄化及面临的挑战

我国台湾地区65岁以上老年人口占总人口比例早在1992-1993年便从6.8%上升至7.09%,进入老龄社会,台湾地区完成人口转型进入老龄社会的速度之快令人吃惊。伴随着台湾地区人口快速老龄化,未来几十年台湾地区将在劳动力结构、养老方式、社会保障体系、教育体系以及人口政策调整等方面面临各种严峻挑战。     

Sex role effects on female response to illness

This study of sex differentials in health behavior and health service choice among the Korean rural population is based on 1421 individuals aged 14 and over who received medical care at hospitals or clinics, pharmacies, a government health center, or through Chinese medical practices. Logistic regression is used to explore the relationship between the dichotomous variable, the log of the odds of the probability of using formal health care services, and the independent variables (sex, age, education, marital status, perceived health status, perceived medical care need, illness days in bed, limited activity days, total sick days, date of illness). A profile of rural Korea shows for all ages fewer adult females than males, but more females 65 years who have been previously married, which suggests higher male mortality rates in the middle ages. Health service usage is higher among the elderly. Higher level of education is associated with greater use of formal medical service. The results of binomial and multinomial analysis indicate that women receive less medical care from the formal system in spite of complaints and restricted activity, and least of all from health centers. It is suggested that personnel at health centers may reduce the desire for care because of incompatible social backgrounds (young single males who are inexperienced, city bred, and completing required service). A woman must carefully choose from the formal system and may more easily use the informal system of pharmacies and Chinese medicine practice. The responses to self rated health showed many differences; males report better health than females and older people consider themselves more unhealthy than young or adult groups. Those with lower educational attainment also consider themselves unhealthy, and indicate greater need for health services. Females and older age groups also stated their need for professional medical care for an illness within 15 days prior to the survey. The mean number of bed days followed a similar pattern as the perceived need and self rated health. However, women had a lower volume of bed days than men in contrast to typical Western trends. Females reported more restricted days of activity. The old age group had the same restricted days but more bed days than the adult group. Reported chronic diseases were greater for lower socioeconomic groups.     

Patterns of Residential Adjustment for Older Person: Who will Recover and How Do They Recover? A Study in Different Residential Environments in Hong Kong

This study seeks to understand the residential adjustment process by examining patterns and rates of adjustment of older people. Research to date has reported that circumstantial and individual factors affect adjustment after residential relocation and various patterns of adjustment can occur. A representative sample of Hong Kong respondents aged 60 years or over was selected with the help of areal sampling and the use of a geographical information system analysis. The results showed that overall, many older persons experience a J-pattern (or linear pattern) of adjustment. Many who relocated to new towns were better adjusted from an early period. Conversely, those relocated to or within old urban areas adjusted at a slower rate and an ultimately lower level. The results provide grounds for optimism about older persons’ resilience with regard to relocation-related stress and some guidance for planners and policy makers.     

Does low fertility call for new policies in some Asian countries?

Over the past 2 decades, Japan, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea have completed a demographic transition from high birth and death rates and runaway population growth to reduced fertility and mortality and population growth approaching replacement levels. Among the outcomes of fertility decline, 3 have particularly far reaching effects: 1) Changes in family types and structures. Marriage and family formation are postponed, childbearing is compressed into a narrow reproductive span that begins later and ends earlier, and higher-order births become rare. Large families are replaced by small ones, and joint and extended families tend to be replaced by nuclear families. 2) Shifts in the proportions of young and old. Declining fertility means that the population as a whole becomes older. Decreases in the proportion of children provides an opportunity to increase the coverage of education. Increases in the proportion of the elderly means higher medical costs and social and economic problems about care of the aged. 3) Changes in the work force. There is concern that low fertility and shortages of workers will cause investment labor-intensive industries to shift to countries with labor surpluses. Another outcome may be an increase in female participation in the work force. The potential consequences of rapid fertility decline have sparked debate among population experts and policy makers throughout Asia. Current family planning programs will emphasize: 1) offering a choice of methods to fit individual preferences; 2) strengthening programs for sexually active unmarried people; 3) encouraging child spacing and reproductive choice rather than simply limiting the number of births; 4) making information available on the side effects of various family planning methods; 5) providing special information and services to introduce new methods; and 6) promoting the maternal and child health benefits of breast feeding and birth spacing.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

The lasting low fertility and ageing in Shanghai

This brief article discusses fertility decline and increased proportions of elderly in Shanghai, China. By 1996, Shanghai had 14.19 million permanent population and 13.05 million resident population. The natural population growth rate was 1.4/1000. The birth rate was 5.6/1000 and the death rate was 7/1000. 5.6084 million were engaged in urban employment by the end of 1996, which was 0.5% fewer employed people than in the preceding year. 3.8 million worked in state-owned or collectively owned enterprises. Unemployment was 2.8%. The gross domestic product per capita was 22,086 yuan (US$2661). The average annual wage was 10,572 yuan/year among urban workers. Rural and suburban households earned an average of 4846 yuan/year. The proportion of women of childbearing age continues to decline, while the proportion of elderly increases. 17.1% of total population were children aged 0-14 years in 1995 compared to 18.2% in 1990. The proportion of elderly increased from 9.4% in 1990 to 11.4% in 1995. The median age of population was 37.3 years. Life expectancy was 74.07 years for men and 78.21 years for women.     

中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景

利用中国2005年1%人口抽样调查资料对老年人口身体健康状况进行分析,并利用联合国人口预测资料,对2050年以前的中国老年人口身体健康状况及其对养老机构床位数需求进行预测。结果表明,2005年中国老年人口中"不能正常工作或生活不能自理"者占15.02%,规模达2 169万人。不同性别、年龄与城乡的老年人口的身体健康状况之间存在明显的差异,人口老龄化与家庭养老功能急剧弱化使得未来中国需要入住养老机构的老年人数量急剧增加。     

Advocating "one couple with one child" being an optimal choice]

Zero population growth within the next 5 years in China would be reached only if many couples were not allowed to have their own child. On the other hand, if every couple were allowed to have 2 children China's population would reach 1500 million within the next 50 years. It seems advisable to advocate the "1 couple 1 child" idea; couples will have to keep in mind both the national interest and the communist ideology; social welfare to assure good living conditions for the old people will relieve the worries of parents with 1 child only. Most people are willing to follow this decision made by the Communist Party; many people declare their willingness to stick by this rule during their wedding ceremony; many couples send back their permit to have a second child, and many women choose abortion when pregnant with a second permitted pregnancy. By the end of 1979 the proportion of "1 couple 1 child" couples was 90% in many large cities; people realize that the practice of "1 couple 1 child" is the best assurance for the future of the country and of their children. This policy will not result in aging of the population, lack of manpower and shortage of soldiers; even if birth rate were 1% in 1985 the proportion of older people for the next 25 years will still be lower than that in European countries. The problem of aging of the population will not occur in this century, and population policies can always be adjusted when needed. Today's problem is to control population through the "1 couple 1 child" policy, even if it may result in many lonely old people, which is a lesser problem than too many people. Even if China has reduced its population growth by 10 million births each year from 1970 to 1979, the necessity to control population growth is still present, in the interest of the country and economic development.