艰难的聚焦：中美世贸谈判目击记

中国从1986年7月正式申请恢复关贸总协定缔约方地位,2001年正式加入世贸组织。十五年间的中国复关和入世的谈判之路可谓漫长。“黑发人都变成了白发人!”当年朱镕基总理的一句感言,道出了中国重新加入世贸组织的艰辛。 在谈判进程中,中美的双边谈判成了中国“入世”的关键。当时的实际情况是,只要和美国人谈判谈成了,中国“入世”道路就基本摆平。     

在阻力中前行——韩美自由贸易协定谈判前景展望

韩美两国就双边自由贸易协定(FTA) 问题进行非正式磋商已经有1年了．却因各种阻力重重未有结果。今年初由于韩美两国就一直阻碍谈判的恢复进口美国牛肉和减少韩国国产影片配额问题达成了一致, 故于今年5月双方开始了双边自由贸易协定(FTA)的协商．计划于2007年3月左右结束谈判．第二年开始使FTA生效。根据美国同其他国家签署FTA的先例．韩美谈判将至少涉及农业、纺织．原产地、卫生和食品检疫、金融、知识产权、服务、政府采购、技术壁垒和通信等20多个领域。     

上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单的路径和措施

目前,在中国(上海)自贸试验区的各项实施制度中,"负面清单"制度是其中重要的一项,也将是未来自贸区可复制、可推广的一项关键制度。对此,可借鉴《美国双边投资协议2012年范本》,将上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单,向全国推广。     

继往开来,努力构建中美新型大国关系——纪念中美建交35周年

正35年前的今天,中美两国正式建立了外交关系。发生在1979年的这一历史事件堪称20世纪下半叶国际关系史上最具战略意义的事件。它不仅翻开了中美两国关系新的一页,而且对国际形势的演变产生了深远影响。35年来,在中美几代领导人和两国人民的共同努力下,中美关系走过了风风雨雨,取得了历史性的发展。1979年,两国双边贸易额仅24.5亿美元;2013年,已突破5000亿美元。双向投资也从建交初期的微乎其微发展到目前超过1000亿美元。今天,中美两国已互为第二大贸易伙伴,中国是美国第一大进口     

是该给死刑执行“死刑”的时候了

全国人大常委会2006年4月29日通过决定,批准中国与西班牙的引渡条约,这是中国与欧美国家之间的第一个引渡条约。中西引渡条约中方谈判代表团团长、外交部条约法律司徐宏参赞向记者透露：中国与其他国家谈判引渡条约将提速。未来几年,中国将会以西班牙引渡条约作为范本,和多个国家签订双边引渡条约。(《新京报》5月24日)     

中国与海湾六国的经贸关系现状与前景分析

随着2004年7月海湾六国财政大臣的集体访华,中国与海湾六国的自由贸易协定谈判已经拉开序幕,双方之间的经贸往来必将驶入以石油合作为车头、全方位和深层次前行的高速道.本文在介绍海湾六国的经济状况、我国与海湾六国经贸关系的基础上,对双边经贸关系的前景进行了展望.     

中国与海湾六国的经贸关系现状与前景分析

随着2004年7月海湾六国财政大臣的集体访华，中国与海湾六国的自由贸易协定谈判已经拉开序幕，双方之间的经贸往来必将驶入以石油合作为车头、全方位和深层次前行的高速道。本文在介绍海湾六国的经济状况、我国与海湾六国经贸关系的基础上，对双边经贸关系的前景进行了展望。     

八方谈入世精彩集锦

1.“该结束了!黑发人谈成了白发人,中国的入世谈判该结束了!”——在中美就中国加入 WTO 双边谈判最困难的时候,朱镕基总理曾对全世界庄严表示。2.“毫无疑问,中国加入 WTO 将证明,所有可能的未来将是最好的,最文明的,这个未来是建立在一套统一的、公认的规则基础上。”     

关于中国-中东能源关系发展的若干思考

在过去的几年里,随着中国对中东石油依赖的日益增长,中国-中东双边政治、经济、外交和战略关系进入快速发展时期,中东石油在中国能源安全战略中的地位和作用日益凸显,中国的中东政策面临多重挑战,中国需要重新评估和更加突出中东石油在中国对外战略中的战略定位,重视双边能源合作机制建设的重要性,以确保中东石油对中国的长期和稳定供应。此外,中国在中东的能源利益已经引起美国等西方国家的高度关注和忧虑,引起了中国与美国的能源地缘政治冲突,为此中国的中东政策还必须兼顾与美国等西方国家的利益关系平衡,寻求中美在中东石油安全和广泛问题上的共同利益。     

科威特谋求与我签订军事合作协定

海湾战争后,科威特政府与美、英、法分别签订双边防务协定后,一直谋求与中国签订双边军事合作协定,其主要背景是: 一、海湾战争后,科威特的既定国策是谋求所有大国对科的“安全保证”。战后,科政府从两个方面全力实施确保国家安全的战略:制定军队现代化的庞大计划,每年耗资十亿美元采购军火,以加强自身的防卫和反击能力。同时积极参加海湾合作委员会的“半岛盾牌”共同防务安排,不遗余力地推动由海湾6国出钱、埃及和叙利亚出军队的《大马士革宣言》的落实等;1991年10月、1992年2月和8月,科以巨额军火采购为筹码,分别与美、英、法签署了为期10年的双边防务协定。此后,科一直谋求与俄罗斯和中国签订类似的协定。1993年8月,科与俄罗斯签订了有限的双边防务协定。至此,科已与联合国安理会4个常任理事国签订了共同防务协定。鉴于科威特人力有限以及海湾6国在联合部队指挥权、驻地、军费分担、战略考虑等方面存在严重分歧,科政府越来越将国家安全战略的重点放在谋求“大国一致”的国际担保上。 二、1994年10月,伊拉克再次调军南下使科威特政府谋求与中国签订军事合作协定的愿望更加迫切。去年“10月危机”后,科威特政府强调,不管伊拉克是否承认科威特主权及联合国划定的新科、伊边界,只要伊拉克现政权不     

试论“石油美元体制”对美国在中东利益中的作用

以石油为基础、以美元为标的的“石油美元体制”是美国实现全球霸权目标中除了借助军事手段外的最为重要的经济手段之一，它为美国实现在中东乃至全球的利益提供了极为有效的金融支持。进入21世纪以来，美元的走低伴随着欧元的趋强，导致美国对石油美元控制能力的削弱，动摇了“石油美元体制”的根基，这必然会影响美国在中东乃至全球的根本利益。美国能否控制“石油美元体制”危机的蔓延，人们将拭目以待。     

中东权力格局转换对阿以和平进程的影响

冷战结束后,以色列维持了在中东政治和阿以和平进程中的强势地位,这种地位是冷战后美国在中东独霸地位的单极格局所决定的。全球金融危机的蔓延与伊拉克和阿富汗问题久拖不决消耗了美国霸权赖以生存的硬实力与软实力,奥巴马政府不得不调整政策,转而在阿以之间寻求更加平衡的中东政策,以色列自"9·11"以来的战略优势期恐将终结。随着中东格局由美国单极独霸格局向美、欧、俄、中、印以及伊朗、以色列、沙特、埃及、土耳其等地区大国构成的多元权力格局的演化,政治优势开始向阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界倾斜。在此背景下,以色列、巴勒斯坦和其他阿拉伯国家需转换安全观念,争取在联合国决议的基础上以更加积极的姿态参与阿以和平进程,实现中东持久和平。     

The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Response to Peak Oil

ABSTRACT

After the two-fold crises of the liberal world order in the first decade of the twenty-first century, including the debacle of the Global War on Terror and the global financial crisis around 2008, we are witnessing a combined crisis of US hegemony and the transnational moment, along with the explosion of populism across the Atlantic world. In this context, this research not only analyses how the United States has designed and maintained the liberal interstate order and globalization but also the way the hegemon proactively starts to destroy its cross-national project today. Therefore, I aim to fathom the future of globalization by interrogating the current US state's key strategies that express America's changing national identity and self-role conception under shifting structural imperatives from unipolarity to the emerging multipolar world.     

The coevolution of trade agreements and investment treaties: Some evidence from network analysis

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are expected to promote trade and investment relationships. One critical feature of such agreements is the network, so the multiplex coevolution of RTAs and BITs should be captured by the dynamics of their two networks. Although many studies have examined the roles of RTAs and BITs, most studies do not account for crucial network properties. This study explores how RTAs and BITs coevolve by applying a stochastic actor-oriented model of multiplex network evolution. In particular, we examine the roles of (i) cross-network dyadic interinfluences and (ii) within- and cross-network preferential attachments to discuss the dynamic relationships between RTAs and BITs. The results are as follows. First, our estimation supports cross-network dyadic interinfluences. Countries that sign a BIT are willing to establish an RTA, while those that sign an RTA are reluctant to establish a BIT. Second, concerning preferential attachments, countries prefer to sign BITs with partners that have more RTA and BIT links. However, countries tend to form RTAs with partners that have more BIT links but are reluctant to form RTAs with those that have more RTA links. We discuss possible justifications for these results, including arguments regarding the benefits and costs associated with the formation of RTAs and BITs.     

Trump Today

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed to “Make America Great Again” by way of a new isolationism of the US. In the first 100 days of his presidency, he has restricted immigration, pursued aggressively the deportation of undocumented immigrants, and drastically reduced the US State Department. Judged in terms of transnational American Studies, his policies have employed a new nationalism to disguise a one-way global agenda. Trump’s withdrawal from the Transpacific Partnership has reconfigured economic relations across the Pacific and in East Asia. His approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline project has enriched a Canadian corporation. Even his appointment of Elizabeth Devos as Secretary of Education has obscured his close relations with her brother, Erik Prince, the infamous founder of Blackwater Security, an international corporation that supplies mercenaries to governments around the world. Transnational American Studies has an ethical obligation to continue its work of understanding US politics, economics, and culture in terms of its global consequences.     

埃及“7·3”事件后美国对埃援助政策研究

埃及被认为是美国在中东地区和阿拉伯世界最坚定的盟友。美国自1979年埃及与以色列签署和平协议以来，每年向埃及提供大量的军事与经济援助。2013年7月3日，埃及民选总统穆罕默德·穆尔西被埃及军队废黜。根据联邦法律，美国暂停对埃及的部分援助。本文从“7·3”事件后美国对埃及援助的变化及其特点、影响援助变化的主要原因进行分析，展现美国对埃及援助政策中的复杂利益和战略考量，根据对历史与现实的分析，预测美国今后对埃援助政策的走势。     

俄、沙关系发展的历史与现状

沙特一直与美国保持着稳定的友好关系,与俄罗斯的关系不冷不热、若即若离。然而,911事件使美、沙关系发生了转折性的变化,两国的战略同盟趋于松散。与此同时,俄沙关系开始升温。在沙特看来,俄可充当其第二把“保护伞”,也是安排世界石油格局的理想合作伙伴;而俄则视沙为其重返中东和解决车臣问题的希望,且沙特雄厚的石油资本还可助其经济发展一臂之力。     

The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

Condom use negotiation in heterosexual African American adults: responses to types of social power-based strategies

This study examined gender differences and preferences in the use of and response to six different styles of condom use negotiation with a hypothetical sexual partner of the opposite gender. Participants were 51 heterosexually active African American adults attending an inner-city community center. Participants completed a semistructured qualitative interview in which they were presented with six negotiation strategies based on Raven's 1992 Power/Interaction Model of Interpersonal Influence. Results showed that female participants responded best to referent, reward, and legitimate strategies, and worst to informational tactics. Male participants responded best to reward strategies, and worst to coercion to use condoms. Further, responses given by a subset of participants indicated that use of negotiation tactics involving coercion to use condoms may result in negative or angry reactions. Response to strategies may vary with the value of the relationship as viewed by the target of negotiation. Implications for HIV prevention efforts are discussed.     

Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence of Asymmetric Effects on Vertical and Horizontal Investments

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are legal instruments used by developing and transition countries to provide investor protection and, by extension, promote higher levels of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). While the link between BITs and FDI has been extensively studied, little is known about the impact of the treaties on different forms of investment. Motivated by this observation, we examine the effects of BITs on vertical and horizontal FDI. We find that BITs are more positively related to vertical than to horizontal FDI. We also find that BITs tend to act as stronger substitutes for better institutions in the case of vertical relative to horizontal investments. The findings inform BIT strategies that are compatible with development objectives in developing and transition countries.