全球价值链贸易网络分析与国际风险传导应对北大核心CSCDCSSCI

在全球化生产不断演进的背景下,参与国际分工各国在共享分工福利的同时,如何避免外部世界的冲击?关于这一问题,若从一国所处的与其他国家的价值链贸易网络的视角给予考察,或许能够得到一些答案.本文基于2000年~2014年世界投入产出数据,研究发现全球价值链贸易网络具有“小世界现象”和“无标度特性”等复杂网络性质,且整个网络的演化是一个循序渐进的过程.接着指出,在全球生产网络分析框架下,一国可通过强化其在全球价值链贸易网络中的集约性和广延性特征,实现自身重要程度的提高,弱化来自外部波动的影响.最后,从进口(投入)和出口(产出)两个方向对上述结论给予验证,即一国可通过增加上下游贸易对象数量并降低贸易强度分布集中度,做广做均全球外贸发展布局,弱化内外部之间风险互相传导的冲击,稳健全球价值链贸易网络.     

一国农产品贸易网络特征及其对全球价值链分工的影响——基于社会网络分析视角

开放经济背景下,国际贸易内涵不断扩展,各国之间的农产品贸易关系日渐错综复杂,对一国农业价值链分工地位的考察必须将其置身于与其他国家的贸易关系网络中。基于1996~2013年的农产品贸易数据,本文首先采用社会网络分析方法研究了全球农产品贸易的整体格局,从网络中心性、网络联系强度和网络异质性3个维度对一国农产品贸易网络特征进行了刻画。分析结果表明,全球农产品贸易网络的演进是一个循序渐进的过程,且国家的贸易网络特征呈偏态分布。在此基础上,本文进一步实证检验了一国农产品贸易网络特征对其农业价值链分工地位的影响。研究结果表明,网络中心性、网络联系强度和网络异质性对一国的全球农业价值链分工地位具有稳健、显著的促进作用。     

“双循环”新格局下贸易摩擦冲击对全球价值链重构影响效应研究

本文在“双循环”新发展格局下,通过匹配链接GTAP模型与全球价值链核算分解模型,并结合社会网络分析方法,综合考察中国遭受贸易摩擦冲击对全球价值链重构的影响效应。研究发现：贸易摩擦对全球价值链重构的影响体现在全球价值链嵌入与利益重配、生产链条回缩、产业转移与产业升级、网络变迁与区域集聚等方面;贸易摩擦冲击在需求侧和供给侧共同抑制了中国参与全球价值链活动,造成企业进口中间品需求和国内中间品需求大幅萎缩,损害与弱化了其全球价值链贸易收益及生产活动参与程度,且产业层面上下游关联引致的负面波及效应显著;同链共振效应抑制了贸易壁垒实施方及非直接关联的第三方对中国的中间品出口国内增加值及复杂GVC参与度,但日本、韩国及东盟国家承接了较多中间品贸易转移;贸易摩擦冲击造成了中间品贸易网络的整体性萎缩,改变了原有的网络社区结构。     

总部经济带动区域经济发展

总部经济是以经济区域中心城市为基础，通过创造各种有利条件，吸引跨国公司和外埠大型企业集团的投资中心、管理中心、研发中心等形式的“总部”，形成总部的集群布局，在优化产业结构、形成合理的价值链分工的同时，通过向周边地区、全国乃至跨国界实行资金、生产、贸易、人才和信息的集中运作，形成合理的价值链分工的经济活动的总和。     

两败俱伤:美中贸易关税战对经济和就业的冲击北大核心CSCDCSSCI

本文综合利用投入产出技术和弹性分析法等方法从全球价值链视角量化模拟了美中贸易关税战对双方经济、就业和世界经济的冲击.结果显示,若美国单边对中国发起贸易战,中国的出口、国内增加值以及就业将遭受重大损失,与此同时,美国也会因为中间品贸易受阻而遭受损失.中美相互贸易战会造成“双输”结果,比较而言中国的受损程度大于美国.此外,中美贸易战会使得全球生产链部分断裂,冲击生产链上欧盟、日本和韩国等经济体,加大世界经济下行的风险.政策启示上,美国的贸易保护主义政策缺乏合理的经济基础,美中贸易战不符合双方经济利益,双方合作共赢才是最优选择.     

中国开放型经济发展四十年回顾与展望

本文回顾了改革开放以来中国开放型经济发展的历史脉络,分析中国融入世界经济体系的路程和取得的伟大历史成就,勾画出中国由"贸易小国"到"贸易大国"的演进过程,并结合中国开放型经济发展的"共轭环流"论,提出中国开放型经济由大到强的发展思路。当前,中国已逐步成为国际分工中的重要"枢纽国"、贸易流控制力的"居重国",已从最初注重出口和引资的"单向开放"转变为注重平衡发展"双向开放"。但是,中国依然缺乏引领全球价值链和国际分工的能力,究其原因主要源于制造业普遍存在"大而不强"的现状和关键核心技术依然受制于人的困局。面对能力缺口和日益复杂的国际环境,应坚持以更高水平的开放来解决开放中遇到的问题,抓改革、补短板、通市场,逐步提升中国在全球价值链中的地位,逐步成为贸易强国。     

产品内价值链分工视角下的产业升级

20世纪90年代以来,国际分工发生了重大转变。分工的细化导致了国与国之间的比较优势更多地体现为全球价值链上某一特定环节的优势,而非传统的最终产品优势。在这种新的经济模式中,产业升级成为各国重点关注的研究课题。本文拟从产品内价值链分工的角度来研究产业升级的问题,根据该价值链条的增值路径来安排未来产业发展战略,以实现国家的战略利益。(一)产品内价值链分工的界定及其基本内涵伴随着经济全球化进程的加快,世界制造业生产体系在全球出现了前所未有的垂直分离和再构,国际分工从产业间分工向产业内分工及产品内分工转化。产业间分…     

论中国的国际分工地位

依照主流的国际分工理论,一国凭借自身的比较优势参与国际分工可以获得最大的利益。而按照中心外围论的观点,这种分配却不是平等的。随着世界经济和跨国公司的发展,以价值链为基础的国际分工形式成为当今国际分工的主要形式,我国一直以来依仗低成本的劳动力优势参与世界的国际分工,处于价值链的加工装配环节,附加值低,无法得到与发达国家平等的贸易利益。只有依靠自主创新才有可能改变低层的国际分工地位,实现出口拉动经济增长质的飞跃。     

“十三五”期间八大国际趋势

<正>四种正面趋势全球经济仍处于黄金增长期,南方国家迅速崛起。到2020年,南方国家经济总量占世界的60%以上,出口总量占世界的近70%,全球经济仍处于黄金增长期。经济全球化深入发展,贸易自由化仍是世界经济发展主流,国际产业分工转移的范围更广、规模更大、层次更深,形成了更加复杂的国际分工和产业发展格局,这为中国在全球价值链从中低端走向中高端提供了巨大的空间。全球性的跨境投资、跨国兼并、跨国技术扩散、     

全球价值链视角下我国对外依存程度分析

嵌入全球价值链可促进我国经济发展，却也使我国更加依赖于外国市场，从而增加了国家风险。本文以全球价值链为视角，基于世界投入产出模型构建了增加值对外依存程度的测算方法，对当前的不同测算方法进行了比较，提出了传统贸易、全球价值链的简单和复杂参与下的对外依存程度。最后，利用2000-2014年的世界投入产出表进行测算。结果表明：我国的对外依存程度呈现先升后降的态势；传统贸易下对外依存程度的变化是我国对外依存度变化的主要原因。这意味着：平衡全球价值链嵌入和国家风险的关键是提高全球价值链的参与程度。本文的方法和结论可以为我国政府管理国家风险和贸易谈判提供支持。     

Is there a trend towards global value chain specialization? — An examination of cross border sales of US foreign affiliates

In this study we discuss and empirically test the assertion that over the last two decades multinational enterprises' (MNEs') configuration of value-adding activities has shifted from a sparse and simple (host–home) international division of labor among the foreign affiliates to a more specialized and ‘advanced’ global value chain configuration in which MNEs locate fine-sliced parts of the value chain at the most efficient locations. Using data on trade flows of U.S. affiliates in 56 host countries between 1983 and 2003 we find some indications of a trend in the direction of global value chain specialization. In particular among US affiliates in developing countries the proportion of host–host, intra-firm trade has increased significantly during the observed period of time. Conversely, the proportion of host–home and inter-firm trade has diminished. We interpret this as indicating both value chain disaggregation (vertical specialization) and MNEs' systematic exploitation of factor cost differentials across countries. We also find that the absolute levels of all types of trade flows have increased. Hence, it is the relative, and not the absolute, changes in the trade flow patterns of US affiliates that gives credibility to the global value chain assertion.     

Where Do We Go from Here?: Globalizing Subsidiaries Moving Up the Value Chain

This paper studies the international expansion of local subsidiaries of multinational enterprises (MNEs). The main questions asked are why and how MNEs' local subsidiaries in developing economies undertake international expansion. Drawing from the global value chain (GVC) perspective, I argue that local subsidiaries that were initially established to undertake production activities for export-oriented industries do not want to remain at the lowest-value-added position forever. They therefore undertake initiatives to get out of that position. The literature on initiative-taking subsidiary has predominantly focused on them becoming centers of excellence via R&D and innovation in the host country. I propose a different route of local subsidiary upgrading via foreign direct investment in more advanced countries. This strategy helps not only to gain internal prominence within the MNE network, but also to improve its external position within the GVC vis-à-vis the lead firms. The paper uses an in-depth case study of a Thai subsidiary of a Taiwanese electronic MNE to explore the transformation of the subsidiary from simply manufacturing for exports to becoming a strategic international expansion arm for the parent MNE.     

Product architecture,global operations networks,and operational performance: an exploratory study

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationships between product architectures and global operations networks and their impact on operational performance, based on survey data from 82 Swedish manufacturers. We find that modular and integral product architectures are associated with different characteristics of the global operations network, and that global operations network designs are characterised by three dimensions: network, plant and supply chain. The key aspects are network structure (configuration as well as coordination), plant focus (scale or scope) and the locus of supply chain capabilities (internal or external).     

A knowledge chain management framework to support integrated decisions in global supply chains

Knowledge management has been identified as a key enabler to achieve organisation’s value chain competitiveness. It, however, has been facing fresh challenges in a global supply chain setting. This paper proposes a global knowledge chain management (GKCM) framework that identifies and prioritises critical knowledge that a global supply chain can focus on to support integrated decisions. The framework explores three types of global context knowledge, namely global market knowledge, global capacity knowledge and global supply network configuration knowledge. Empirical study has been undertaken within the manufacturing industry to evaluate the GKCM framework. Analytic network process has been explored as a key method to assess the importance of the global knowledge constructs from supply chain managers’ perspectives. A key contribution of the paper is that it advances existing knowledge chain management approaches within one organisation and its local supply chain to include the global context knowledge applicable to global manufacturing settings, and highlights how the GKCM framework can support global supply chain integrated decisions.     

Correct accounting for duty drawbacks with outward and inward processing in global production networks

We develop a new model for the correct accounting of customs duties levied on a product. We examine inward and outward processing – that is, processed components can be either imported or produced in a foreign country – in the strategic planning of a global production network. This complex modeling problem is structured with path variables, and the duty drawbacks can be simultaneously and correctly entered for n production stages in m market regions (with corresponding duty regions) for all products with a maximum n-level bill of materials. We present a case study from the automotive industry to examine whether or not the possibility of future duty rate changes or free trade agreements, such as one between the United States and the European Union, could affect the design of a production network and hence should be considered in strategic planning. We show that correctly accounting for duty drawbacks can lead to changes in the global footprint of production. We also demonstrate that intercontinental trade barriers (in the form of duties) diminish working capital and entail longer delivery routes. Eliminating these political trade barriers could increase the returns to capital while reducing both delivery lead times and environmental costs.     

THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF PRODUCTIVITY AND DEMAND SHOCKS IN THE US ECONOMY

This paper analyzes the cross‐country effects of productivity and demand disturbances in the United States identified with sign restrictions based on standard theory. Productivity gains in US manufacturing increase US consumption and investment vis‐à‐vis foreign countries, resulting in a trade deficit and higher international prices of US goods, despite the rise in their supply. Financial adjustment works via a higher global value of US equities, real dollar appreciation, and an expansion of US gross foreign liabilities as well as assets. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also increase investment and cause a real dollar appreciation, but have limited effects on the trade balance and net foreign assets. Our findings emphasize the importance for macroeconomic interdependence of endogenous fluctuations in aggregate demand across countries in response to business cycle shocks.     

集群演化网络模型与仿真研究

从网络视角研究集群的演化,应用一个小世界演化模型与选择价值函数演化模型相结合的双重网络演化模型,研究集群网络的演化特征和集群网络的演化过程.此模型可反映集群网络从形成期到成熟期的演化进程,应用该模型对集群网络形成期和成熟期的网络密集性、连通性和中心性进行了仿真试验,并对集群网络的形成机制给出了解释和分析.研究表明,小世界网络模型模拟的集群网络具有集群形成期网络整体密集性和连通性剧烈变化的特征,而个体选择价值函数模型可以解释集群网络的成长期、成熟期的密集性和连通性趋于稳定的特征,将2种演化规则相结合,则可以反映集群网络从形成期到成熟期的各生命周期特征.最后,由小世界和价值函数演化机理出发,给出集群网络演化进程中生命周期各阶段的内因解释和政策启示.     

碳配额交易体系下闭环供应链网络的生产与碳交易策略研究

人类的生产和消费等活动引起温室气体增加,已造成气候恶化等环境问题,在生产、消费等相关活动中减少碳排放量是业界、学界和政府等相关主体的普遍共识。针对高排放和低排放两类制造商、多个需求市场和一个碳交易中心组成的闭环供应链网络,在碳配额交易体系下,研究了企业的生产与碳减排策略。两类制造商基于政府分配的碳配额在碳交易中心进行碳排放权的买卖形成一个碳交易子网,同时,产品的买卖形成一个产品交易子网。针对所有企业成员的利润最大化目标,利用变分不等式把含约束的利润最大化非线性规划问题转化为变分不等式问题,并利用互补关系与变分不等式的等价性把需求市场消费者的购买行为转化为变分不等式,得到闭环供应链网络系统中产品交易量、生产量和碳交易策略满足的均衡条件,进一步获得闭环供应链网络达到Nash均衡状态时的条件。利用投影收缩算法求解所建模型,并给出了相关数值算例,通过比较静态分析得到了管理学启示。结果表明：供应链网络中存在企业利润目标与政府减排目标一致的情况,两类制造商间的碳交易额多数情况下是一致的,政府对不同类型制造商应设置不同的回收率。本研究可为政府和企业减排目标的实现提供指导和决策参考。     

Supply Network Structure,Visibility, and Risk Diffusion: A Computational Approach

Understanding and managing supply chain risks is a critical functional competency for today's global enterprises. A lack of this competency can have significant negative outcomes, including costly production and delivery delays, loss of future sales, and a tarnished corporate image. The ability to identify and mitigate risks, however, is complicated as supply chains are becoming increasingly global, complex, and interconnected. Drawing on the complex systems and epidemiology literature, and using a computational modeling and network analysis approach, we examine the impact of global supply network structure on risk diffusion and supply network health and demonstrate the importance of supply network visibility. Our results show a significant association between network structure and both risk diffusion and supply network health. In particular, our results indicate that small‐world supply network topologies consistently outperform supply networks with scale‐free characteristics. Theoretically, our study contributes to our understanding of risk management and supply networks as complex networked systems using a computational approach. Managerially, our study illustrates how decision makers can benefit from a network analytic approach to develop a more holistic understanding of system‐wide risk diffusion and to guide network governance policies for more favorable health level outcomes. The article concludes by highlighting the main findings and discussing possibilities of future research directions.