财政部副部长：经济刺激政策退出需渐进、温和

中新社北京2010年3月21日电（记者赵建华）中国财政部副部长王军21日在北京表示,退出经济刺激政策要比推出刺激政策难。它不能像8、9月份中国的钱塘江江潮那样——轰然而来、悄然而去，刺激政策的退出需要一个渐进、温和的过程。     

经济刺激计划的负面效应分析——以美国为样本

在经济萧条时,经济刺激计划对于避免震荡、稳定市场、恢复信心、促进增长有重要作用。但当经济止跌企稳时,经济刺激计划要适时退出,否则会带来政府财政负担加大,赤字增加,潜在通货膨胀压力加大,财政政策的挤出效应,助长道德风险和逆市场化改革等一系列负外部效应。以美国为例,分析美国经济救援和经济刺激计划的负外部效应,从而提出对中国四万亿经济刺激计划实施的反思与启示。     

论欧债危机影响下我国政府采购管理体制革新

欧债危机对市场经济的冲击,很可能导致全球经济的二次衰退,世界各国和地区纷纷强化政府行为,启动经济救援和刺激计划,这就使得政府采购成为全球关注的一项重要议题。政府采购活动与上述政府刺激计划息息相关,政府采购作为政府宏观调控的重要手段能否产生应有的效能成为各界关注的焦点。     

自治计划、市场机制和经济政策

一自治计划与经济政策之间的关系不能根据某种逻辑演绎法或归纳总结法一劳永逸地确定.这一关系取决干在解决经济问题时计划具有什么样的职能,即计划机制是否在一定程度上制约着所有经济部门和社会部门,或者说计划机制是否根据某种"平等的"原则与市场机制     

货币政策的系统性探析

从2008年为应对国际金融危机导致的经济下滑到2010年为应对流动性过剩带来的物价上涨,政策当局频频调整货币政策的方向和力度。对过去政策的反向调控并不是对过去政策行为的否定,关键是从政策目标的确定到政策的退出是否有利于确保经济平稳健康运行,为此,我们从货币政策目标、政策工具、政策传导渠道、政策有效性及非常规货币政策退出等方面对货币政策进行系统性探析,以明确我国货币政策对经济运行的调控机理并指出经济背景变迁下政策未来的调整方向。     

大学教师退出机制改革的国际比较

教师退出机制作为高校管理体系中的重要组成部分,是大学保持其生机与活力的制度基础。近年来,教育市场化的发展、教育成本压力的增大使得传统的大学教师终身制的弊端不断凸显,发达国家的高等教育为了保持竞争优势,对原来的教师终身制进行了一系列的调整,在鞭策教师的同时加速了人才流动。由于各国教师制度的形成有其特定的文化根源和制度背景,教师退出机制改革作为"遗传与环境的产物",其改革路径与措施也各具特色。比较发达国家教师退出机制改革的制度背景以及退出机制的利弊,给予我们的启示在于:完善社保体系,为退出教师拓展生存空间;根据教师职级、贡献与能力,实行多元化的弹性聘任制度;优化评审环节,发挥评审导向作用,将评审结果与聘任、工资、晋职和解聘等直接挂钩;放松教师编制管控,疏通人才流动渠道,构建灵活高效的大学教师人才流动机制。     

特朗普政府气候政策的调整及影响

特朗普上台后宣布退出《巴黎协定》,给全球气候治理进程造成了重大打击。历史上,美国的气候政策呈现出较大的不稳定性,特朗普的上台更是扭转了奥巴马政府对于气候变化问题的积极政策,从废止清洁能源计划、退出《巴黎协定》和回归传统能源政策三个方面导致美国气候政策的全面倒退,再一次反映出美国气候政策的"周期性"和"易变性"。我们有必要对特朗普政府退出决定背后的政治经济因素进行系统性解读。本文从政治、经济、社会等三个不同层面和发展趋势综合考量特朗普政府气候决策调整的动因。同时从国内气候治理、《巴黎协定》走向和全球气候格局等几个方面来理顺其政策影响的延展逻辑。本文提出在现有的美国政策环境下,中方可以加强同美在传统能源、基础设施投资、能源市场和全球天然气市场、绿色金融、气候融资等方面的合作,维护中美气候合作,积极寻求全球气候制度性权力,维护和提升中国在气候领域的利益和诉求。     

西欧的结构调整

从70年代起,随着加工工业原料、能源和部门危机的展开,其竞争能力开始下降,因而结构调整具有特殊的意义.这时形成了工业、能源和科学技术等方面的结构调整,各国都在制定"工业政策"和"战略"、能源计划和科技计划.在结构政策中,人们利用对价格、消耗和利润的形成有影响的价值杠杆.生产领域中的经济和立法行政措施表现为改善资本积累的数量和质量评     

The Rural-Urban Income Gap and Critical Points of Institutional Change

本文把中国的城乡收入差距纳入制度经济学的分析框架,考察其变化的几个临界点。1978年的城乡收入差距水平,打破了传统城乡关系政策赖以存在的制度均衡,导致农村经济改革。在改革期间,城市居民运用其特有的“投票”和“呼声”机制,影响着城乡关系政策,阻碍农村劳动力的永久转移,继续维系着城市偏向政策。然而,农民仍然可以通过“退出”机制即“用脚投票”,最终推动城市偏向政策的改变。当城乡收入差距回复到改革之初的水平时,制度变革的条件将成熟,导致户籍制度及其相关政策的改革。     

当代宏观经济调控模式的形成、转换与改革方向

宏观经济调控的根本问题是经济体制的运行模式问题。本文通过对苏联的计划管理模式,美国的需求管理模式,日本的供给管理模式这三种基本模式的生长背景、时代意义、基本特征、转换条件及其类型变化等运行机制的比较分析,认为宏观经济调控作为一个历史进步和客观规律,其具体模式并不是固定不变的,也不是各国一致的。按作者的看法,极端的管理模式必然引起改革,而计划机制与市场机制的有机结合又受生产水平、政策取向、微观经济的组织性、经济开放度等条件的制约;优化产业结构是我国宏观经济调控模式改革的目标,供给与需求的双向调控是基本道路。     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis

The persistence of global imbalances remains a potential source of instability for the international economic system, which ought to be tackled in order to exit from the current crisis in a better position. This paper shows that the complexity of the global network of trade imbalances has increased over time in terms of the number of countries involved and of the heterogeneity of their conditions. These findings imply that orchestrating a global exchange rate adjustment plan, as done in the 1980s to tackle a similar problem, is certainly more difficult than it was 20 years ago. We also show, however, that the uncoordinated movements in bilateral exchange rates occurred since the early 2000s did not go in the direction of reducing bilateral imbalances. Rebalancing the world economy, thus, seems to require a rich set of coordinated policy actions and economic changes, involving adjustments in both exchange rates and real variables, which are heterogeneous at the country level. We argue that, provided some conditions are satisfied, the variegated effects of the ongoing financial crisis, and the policy responses this has induced, may help the global and bilateral rebalancing process.     

促进广西创业风险投资基金市场发展的配套政策研究

目前,广西创业风险投资基金市场发展面临诸多困境,有必要通过加快出台有关法规政策文件;推动开发性金融支持广西创业风险投资基金工作联席会议制度的建立;积极落实国家对创业风险投资的财税支持政策;培育和完善区域风险资本的退出机制;注重创业风险投资中介服务平台建设;加强创业风险投资专业人才引进、培养和激励制度建设等措施促进广西创业风险投资基金市场发展,推动区域自主创新能力的提高与北部湾经济区开发建设目标的实现。     

A Test of the Relationship between Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Growth in China： 1980-2008

我国货币增长不确定性的根源可以划分为货币政策冲击和宏观经济冲击两个层面,通过检验我国货币增长不确定性与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示：货币增长不确定性主要由宏观经济冲击所引致;1998年以前的货币增长不确定性比较剧烈,1998之后的货币增长不确定性明显减弱;由货币政策冲击导致的货币增长不确定性能够有效地促进经济增长,这意味着货币政策调控的有效性;但2003年以来,由宏观经济冲击导致的货币增长不确定性对经济增长起到了抑制作用,这说明以国际金融危机为代表的经济冲击对我国经济稳定增长产生了显著的消极影响,需对此进行积极的国家经济风险预警和防范。     

二十一世纪中国经济周期平稳化现象研究(英文)

本文的目的在于回答两个问题：第一，21世纪中国经济周期平稳化的原因何在？第二，21世纪中国经济波动的来源何在？利用统计分析和构造的多方程结构宏观经济模型，我们发现第一个问题的答案几乎完全在于国内因素，包括国内需求冲击的稳定和信贷市场中的自稳定机制；就第二个问题而言，21世纪中国经济波动的最大来源在于国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击——前者对GDP的波动影响较大，而后者则更多地影响CPI。本文的另一个发现是，传统的盯住货币供应量的货币政策对稳定GDP和CPI几乎没有效果。本文的政策建议之一是，在全球危机的背景下，稳定总需求的国内经济刺激政策依然很重要。本文的另一个建议是，为了摆脱全球化的负面影响，我们需要更加依靠城市化而非工业化，并在国内调整各个区域的经济角色。     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排，向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场，一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施，一个恰当的名义锚，监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

The Effects of Depressive Symptoms on Work Activities and Welfare Exit of Welfare Recipients in Korea1

The purpose of this research is to examine the link between depressive symptoms of welfare recipients and their work activity and welfare exit using a secondary dataset, entitled the Korean Welfare Panel Study. In 2000, the National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was introduced to (i) ensure a basic standard of living for households in poverty, and (ii) promote work activity and welfare exit of the recipients. A considerable body of literature has reported that the policy outcome of the NBLSS is not a success. However, the reason for the low success rate is unclear. In contrast to studies in the USA, few studies in Korea investigated the effect of depression on welfare‐to‐work transitions. To bridge the gap in the literature, we examine the association between depression, work activity, and welfare exit using a logistic regression analytic method. The analytic results show that the level of depression (total score on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) was negatively associated with welfare recipients’ work activity and welfare exit, suggesting that depressive symptoms may be a significant barrier to promoting economic self‐sufficiency. Implications of the study findings are further discussed.     

Social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China and its policy initiatives

The Global Financial Crisis has brought eminent, negative economic and social impacts on China since late 2008, including a considerable decline in GDP growth and a rapid rise in unemployment. Drawing on the published literature and official statistical data, this paper examines the social consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in China, explores various policy initiatives taken by the Chinese government and assesses the effectiveness of these policy initiatives. It argues that the Global Financial Crisis has led to high levels of enterprise bankruptcy and job losses in China. Rural migrant workers and new university graduates are the two social groups most adversely affected. The economic stimulus package and expanded social programmes tend to be short term and economic oriented. Whether the policy initiatives have been effective in mitigating the social impacts of this crisis and correcting the structural imbalance of China's economy is unclear. The paper concludes by suggesting that a new policy approach should be taken to timely and effectively address the negative social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China, in particular by providing a more inclusive and comprehensive social safety net, prioritizing employment generation, and addressing housing deficits.     

加入WTO与重塑微观规制政策

加入WTO与重塑微观规制政策@王健$国家行政学院科研部!北京100089~~~~~~