Real option games with R&D and learning spillovers

We demonstrate to decision makers how to optimally make costly strategic pre-investment R&D decisions in the presence of spillover effects in an option pricing framework with analytic tractability. Decisions are modeled as impulse-type controls with random outcome. Two firms face two decisions that are solved interdependently in a two-stage game. The first-stage decision is: What is the optimal level of coordination (optimal policy/technology choice)? The second-stage decision is: What is the optimal effort for a given level of the spillover effects and the cost of information acquisition? The framework is extended to a two-period closed-loop stochastic game with (path-dependency inducing) switching costs that make strategy revisions harder. When conditions of learning-by-doing exist, we find that strategy shifts are easier to observe in market environments of high growth and high volatility.     

Emotion in strategic management: A review and future research agenda

Emotion in strategic management has attracted increasing scholarly interest during the past twenty-five years. Researchers have demonstrated the nature and significance of emotion in strategic management from a broad range of perspectives across different levels of analysis. Given the expanding research on the topic, the time is ripe to synthesize this diverse and multifaceted body of knowledge. In a thematic synthesis of the literature, we address the following questions: how does emotion influence strategic management, and how can the field be further developed? We review emotion constructs used in the extant literature and identify three themes related to how emotions influence strategic management: the nonconscious influence of emotions, emotion regulation, and collective emotions. Based on these themes and our analysis, we propose three areas of future research to inspire the field to develop further: (1) scope conditions of emotion research in strategic management; (2) capturing emotion in strategic management; and (3) the ethics, power and politics of emotions in strategic management.     

母子公司战略一致性的路径及实现机制 ——基于相互依赖关系视角

由复杂依赖关系构成的国有企业集团需要确定各子公司在战略目标上达成共识的程度,如何协调依赖关系以促成战略一致成为集团企业亟须解决的问题。本文通过多案例研究方法,基于相互依赖关系视角,构建了母子公司依赖关系与战略一致性的研究框架。通过定性比较分析(QCA),本文解读产生战略承诺的两类构型特征,一类是具有高开放性和低能动性的锁定式建构,另一类是具有低关系形态、高能动性和集权管控的能动式依赖。本文又立足关系规则,构建能够引发主动精神的策略,触发式探索策略可以减弱开放的锁定性和能动的短视性,嵌入式即兴策略可以增加子体的即兴创作和母体的适度规则,以促进子公司主导行为的生成。本文结合能动性与管控模式拓展了相互依赖关系视角的战略研究,对于国有企业集团内部协调运行提供借鉴与启示。     

现金流量在财务困境预测中的信息含量实证研究——来自2003-2004年度ST公司的新证据

本文选取2003-2004年度60家财务困境样本和120家非财务困境样本,分别运用单变量和多变量logistic分析检验了现金流量信息在财务困境预测中的相对信息含量和增量信息含量,研究发现:(1)在我国上市公司陷入财务困境前1年,经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产报酬率和资产周转率,其预测效率优于其它应计制会计变量;(2)无论在财务困境前1年还是前2年,现金流量类变量在会计比率的基础上均具有显著的增量信息含量。本文的研究结果显示,从财务困境预测研究的角度看,充分挖掘现金流量信息的预测价值应成为未来此类研究的方向;从投资者角度看,现金流量表为投资者提供了决策有用的信息。     

Innovations in humanitarian supply chains: the case of cash transfer programmes

Abstract

Cash transfer programmes (CTPs) are revolutionizing humanitarian supply chains (HSCs), yet just how CTPs are to be understood as innovation, and how they impact on HSCs, remains unclear. Innovation in the humanitarian context more often than not stems from outside humanitarian organizations – that is innovation occurs in their supply chain. The aim of this study is to further the understanding of supply chain innovation (SCI) in the humanitarian context. Based on empirical evidence this article suggests a supply chain innovation model (SCIM). This SCIM is useful because it allows different processes to be understood and compared, by providing guidance on how innovations progress. The contribution of this research is threefold: First, the research presents a SCIM for the humanitarian context. Second, this is the first application of a SCIM to the humanitarian environment. Finally, the research is field based and grounded in empirical observations thus adding to the literature and offering insights to practice.     

Countering Overseas Power in Global Value Chains: Information Asymmetries and Subcontracting in the Plastics Industry

Resource Dependency Theory (RDT) and Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis have been deployed in the strategic and international management literatures to address questions of power in dyadic relationships and global production networks, respectively. This paper integrates the two theoretical approaches in order to expand RDT, using insights from Hirschman's exit/voice model to show the options available to some firms but not others. Using the relationship between buyers and contract manufacturers from GVC analysis, we find a correlation between firm size and choice of strategic action in response to contract manufacturers' dependence on buyers. Large firms follow an acquiescence strategy while small manufacturers follow an avoidance strategy, able to use both exit and voice strategies. Enabled by scale or control over information, both of these approaches successfully reduce uncertainty and provide a source of sustained competitive advantage. Using a study of the production chain in consumer plastics manufacturing in China, we show how dependent firms respond to GVC induced pressure. We find that based on the size of the contract manufacturer, the range of strategic responses to power is constrained by the nature of the dependency in global value chains. This opens important insights into the role that structural characteristics of organizations (like size) play in determining strategic freedom.     

企业多元化战略的选择分析

本文要通过交易费用理论和委托--代理理论分析企业多元化战略的选择;试图解释(1)不同多元化战略的经济利益和管理成本有何差异?(2)为什么企业会选择特定的初始战略?(3)是什么因素决定企业改变原来的战略?本文的目的是为企业在选择多元化战略时提供一个经济利益--管理成本的分析框架.     

自由现金流代理成本假说还是过度自信假说?——中国上市公司投资——现金流敏感性的实证研究

企业投资现金流敏感性问题可以由现金流代理假说解释,也可以由管理者过度自信假说解释,本文以企业的成长性、现金流特征为划分指标对企业进行分组,并以此来区分与检验两种理论假说。研究结果显示,自由现金流代理问题较为严重的低成长—高现金流企业,将会发生企业过度投资。同样,过度自信问题较为严重的高成长—高现金流企业,也将发生企业过度投资。实证研究结果即支持了自由现金流代理假说,也支持了过度自信假说。     

Understanding Managers' Moral Decision-Making

The paper discusses managers' moral decision-making based on analyses of managers' talk when they are facing a morally problematic situation. The qualitative data was collected by a survey questionnaire from Finnish top managers in large manufacturing companies. The research questions are: How managers construct good in their speech? How managers reason for a moral choice? Managers' reasoning is analysed by grouping the responses according to whether they agree or disagree with the presented moral dilemma, and by finding the cultural distinctions managers make in the responses. The analysis shows that ethical theories are used, if not explicitly, at least implicitly in managers' moral decision-making. Good is constructed in managers' speech by either referring to the consequences of an action, to certain moral norms or rules, or to the culturally accepted way of action. The content of the reasons for a moral choice varies depending on whether the response reflects disagreeing, agreeing or uncertain attitude towards the given moral dilemma.     

开放型商业模式NICE属性与价值创造关系的实证研究

企业竞争优势或价值创造的源泉在哪里,或者企业绩效异质性的成因是什么?这一问题一直是战略管理领域的研究焦点。移动互联网时代,企业纷纷通过重塑商业模式来实现转型升级或跨界发展,并将其作为价值创造和竞争优势的一种重要来源。因此,本文旨在以开放型商业模式为研究对象,探讨其内在属性与价值创造之间的关系。首先,本文阐述开放型商业模式的内涵及构成;接着,识别出其内在属性特征,即新颖性(N)、锁定性(I)、互补性(C)、效率性(E);同时,重点借助战略网络理论、新木桶理论、平台经济学等理论基础论证NICE与价值创造间的关系及背后的作用机理,提出理论假设;最后,运用调查问卷和结构方程模型的方法实证检验,且演绎结论的管理含义。本文所使用的数据来源于中国最大的服务交易平台:猪八戒网和EMBA、MBA、EDP等项目课堂。研究表明,开放型商业模式新颖性与企业价值正相关、互补性与顾客价值正相关、效率性与企业价值和伙伴价值均呈正相关关系;而新颖性与顾客价值及伙伴价值正相关;互补性与企业价值及伙伴价值呈正相关关系等结论未得到印证。本文的研究回答了"企业竞争优势或价值创造源泉在哪里?"这一问题,并且本文的理论机理分析和实证结论有利于指导企业创新商业模式并获取竞争优势的战略决策。     

Corporate governance and the market reaction to stock repurchase announcement

This paper investigates the effect of corporate governance on market reaction around of a stock repurchase announcement. We argue that corporate governance affects the ability of a stock repurchase to alleviate agency costs related to free cash flows, and the credibility of the undervaluation signal sent by the announcement of buyback programs. We find a higher 3-day cumulative abnormal return to programs announced by firms with better corporate governance practices than those with bad governance (1.6% and 0.85% respectively), and the market reaction is significantly higher following the successive scandals in year 2001 (Enron, Arthur Anderson, WorldCom??) and the resulting Sarbanes?COxley Act of 2002. Further investigations indicate that firms with a lower Free Cash Flow to Asset ratio have a higher market reaction, which is consistent with the information signaling hypothesis, and this is more significant in firms with good governance practices, and following post Sarbanes?COxley Act.     

Partnerships as strategic choices in public management

Partnerships are not new phenomena in public administration. However, there is now a more explicit recognition that managing public policy networks involves partnerships within and across policy fields and linking interdependent levels of government nationally and internationally. The aim of this paper is to widen the scope of strategic choice in designing partnerships in public management by developing an alternative approach: the Power-Role Analysis. As the term suggests, Power-Role Analysis uses distinctions between types of power and the roles and relationships corresponding with them to clarify and define different forms of partnership. Power-role analysis provides a basis for considering systematically the problems that arise in managing partnerships of different kinds. It also gives guidance for establishing congruence between forms of partnerships and the results to be expected from selecting one form rather than another. The Power-Role analysis is afterwards performed, its focus being two empirical cases.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

制度转型期中国本土企业适应性成长路径——基于海尔不连续创新的经验研究

探讨了中国制度转型背景下动态环境对企业组织适应性成长路径的影响,提出不连续创新是中国企业适应性成长的战略选择。在文献分析的基础上,将中国本土企业的不连续创新的发生情境界定为战略更新、业务领域调整、组织结构战略性变革和海外市场扩张4种,并以海尔1984~2009年间发展历程中的不连续创新事件为对象进行分析和论证,研究外部环境特征、企业不连续创新和组织适应性之间的共同演化关系。研究结果表明:环境不连续变化是企业不连续创新的直接诱因;不连续创新是转型经济背景下中国企业加速组织适应性的战略性选择,其演化趋势是更加强调外部资源整合、战略柔性、多元化和组织结构的网络化;在动态环境下企业战略选择与组织结构变革的长期协同演化将导致企业组织适应性的形成。     

Managerial commitment to the status quo and corporate divestiture: Can power motivate openness to change?

CEOs' commitment to the status quo (CSQ) is a prominent psychological factor leading to their resistance to organizational change. In this study we focus on the moderating role of managerial power, a central element in strategic choice, in the relationship between CEOs' CSQ and corporate divestiture activity. Drawing from the resource dependence perspective of power, we identify multiple aspects of power (structural, ownership, prestige/social, and expert power) that reduce CEOs' resistance to corporate change arising from CSQ. This study contributes to the strategic leadership and organizational change literatures by underscoring the importance of considering how different power bases shape the decision making of top managers who may have tendencies to hold onto firm assets when the situation warrants change. With a better understanding of how various power bases may uniquely influence strategic outcomes in the presence of managerial psychological bias, we can more accurately assess the impact of power on firms' strategic actions.     

Valuation of childhood risk reduction: the importance of age, risk preferences, and perspective.

This article explores two problems analysts face in determining how to estimate values for children's health and safety risk reductions. The first addresses the question: Do willingness‐to‐pay estimates for health risk changes differ across children and adults and, if so, how? To answer this question, the article first examines the potential effects of age and risk preferences on willingness to pay. A summary of the literature reporting empirical evidence of differences between willingness to pay for adult health and safety risk reductions and willingness to pay for health and safety risk reductions in children is also provided. The second dimension of the problem is a more fundamental issue: Whose perspective is relevant when valuing children's health effects—society's, children's, adults‐as‐children, or parents'? Each perspective is considered, followed ultimately by the conclusion that adopting a parental perspective through an intrahousehold allocation model seems closest to meeting the needs of the estimation problem at hand. A policy example in which the choice of perspective affects the outcome of a regulatory benefit‐cost analysis rounds out the article and emphasizes the importance of perspective.     

风险集聚类邻避冲突事件随机演化情景分析

随着中国现代城市管理社区制的推行，由公共设施引发的社区冲突逐步凸显，其中，风险集聚类邻避设施成为引发社区冲突的主要诱因。邻避冲突事件演化过程的复杂性和随机扰动要求现有研究不应局限于确定环境下事件的分析，而应在更加真实的不确定环境下对冲突本身展开探讨。鉴于此，本文以演化博弈论为理论基础，引入高斯白噪声随机干扰项，构建风险集聚类邻避冲突事件中营建企业与周边民众两类群体的随机演化博弈模型，对比分析在无政府监管与政府监管情景下群体策略选择行为的随机演化过程，并利用Matlab进行数值仿真。研究发现：（1）无政府监管情景下，当营建企业采取强硬策略收益小于成本，且周边民众采取抗争策略成本大于收益时，（合作，妥协）是其演化均衡策略组合；营建企业与周边民众策略选择演化速度与初始策略选择概率密切相关。（2）政府监管情景下，当政府监管力度大于营建企业采取强硬策略收益与采取合作策略收益之差，且政府监管力度大于周边民众采取抗争策略收益与采取妥协策略收益之差时，（合作，妥协）是其唯一策略演化均衡点；政府监管力度对营建企业策略选择有显着影响，而对周边民众策略选择无显着影响。（3）随机因素对风险集聚类邻避冲突中营建企业与周边民众策略选择行为产生干扰，但随机模型演化趋势与确定性模型相一致。研究结果表明，政府完善监管机制，赋予公民参与权利，企业建立"柔性"冲突协调机制，民众合法表达利益诉求，推动风险集聚类邻避冲突治理框架的构建。     

针对企业虚假广告宣传的政府监管策略研究

虚假广告是指经营者利用广告虚构事实,造成消费者对其商品或服务的误解,从而获取利益的行为。本文考虑了政府、消费者在企业广告决策中的作用,建立两阶段模型,研究了企业利润最大化目标下政府监管力度、消费者负面口碑效应、产品生产成本等因素对广告策略选择的影响。基于企业在四类广告策略（不进行虚假广告、仅前期进行虚假广告、仅后期进行虚假广告和一直进行虚假广告）中的选择,本文着重分析了政府相应的监管策略。通过详实的数值分析,探究了在不同的市场环境下的企业利润和具体的政府监管策略,最终提出对策和建议来限制企业的虚假广告宣传、提高消费者效益并净化市场环境。     

A risk perception model of alliance structuring

The literature on the strategic alliance structuring process does not provide an adequate view of the role of decision-makers in that process, especially about how alliance partners form their structural preferences. Given the critical role of structure in alliance management, the decision-making process regarding the choice of an appropriate alliance structure deserves particular research attention. We propose a model of strategic alliance structuring that has managerial risk perception as its core. Our model consists of the following parts: the antecedents of risk perception, relational risk and performance risk, risk perception and structural preference, and the resolution of preferences. We suggest that the structural preferences of partners are based on their perceptions of relational risk and performance risk, and the overall objective is to minimize the total risk. We also develop a number of propositions as elaboration of the model to facilitate empirical research and the effective management of the structuring process.     

Risk Analysis for Critical Asset Protection

This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested.