我国农村贫困的动态转化、持续时间与状态依赖研究——基于收入贫困与多维贫困的双重视角

本文使用中国健康与营养调查2000—2015年跟踪数据,比较分析了农村家庭收入贫困与多维贫困的长期变动情况。在此基础上,使用Cox比例风险与动态Probit模型实证研究了跨期贫困的动态转化概率、状态依赖及其影响因素等问题。研究发现,农村多维贫困发生率下降幅度比收入贫困发生率下降幅度高出近20个百分点,但未脱贫的多维贫困家庭比收入贫困家庭具有更明显的贫困适应性。随着贫困持续时间的增加,无论是收入贫困还是多维贫困,中断当前贫困状态的可能性都下降了。进一步分析发现,子代职业地位、子代教育、城镇化水平和交通便捷度等因素显著降低了贫困家庭的贫困适应性与状态依赖,而贫困补贴对部分贫困家庭产生了补贴依赖效应,从而一定程度上促进了其贫困适应性。本研究在理论上丰富了有关贫困动态性的探讨,为有效破解低收入群体的贫困状态依赖提供了经验证据。     

边疆地区农村贫困程度的测度与模拟分析——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

利用2000-2009年新疆农村收入分组数据,首先计算历年新疆农村FGT贫困指数,分析新疆农村贫困程度的变化情况;其次对新疆农村FGT贫困指数进行分解,探讨经济增长、收入分配和贫困线变动对新疆农村贫困程度的影响;最后模拟分析各个贫困指标对贫困线变动的敏感程度。研究结果表明：新千年开始后新疆农村贫困程度变化具有一定的阶段性特点,大体经历了大幅下降、平缓变动、小幅上扬三个阶段;FGT贫困指数分解后发现,各期影响因素作用不一,经济增长的减贫效应最为明显,收入分配状况的改善或者恶化产生了不一样的减贫作用,贫困线上调最明显的效应是新疆农村贫困面扩大;模拟贫困线上调后发现各贫困指标对贫困线较小幅度的变动具有较高的敏感性。新疆农村的贫困问题比较复杂,最近有进一步加重的趋势,尤其是最贫困人口的境况需要获得更多的关注,基于此提出了相关政策建议。     

Poverty and inequality in European regions

The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is the main source of information about poverty and economic inequality in the member states of the European Union. The sample sizes of its annual national surveys are sufficient for reliable estimation at the national level but not for inferences at the sub-national level, failing to respond to a rising demand from policy-makers and local authorities. We provide a comprehensive map of median income, inequality (Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve) and poverty (poverty rates) based on the equivalised household income in the countries in which the EU-SILC is conducted. We study the distribution of income of households (pro-rated to its members), not merely its median (or mean), because we regard its dispersion and frequency of lower extremes (relative poverty) as important characteristics. The estimation for the regions with small sample sizes is improved by the small-area methods. The uncertainty of complex nonlinear statistics is assessed by bootstrap. Household-level sampling weights are taken into account in both the estimates and the associated bootstrap standard errors.     

教育改善贫困效应的地区异质性研究

教育对于增加收入、改善贫困无疑是一个重要的途径。在目前多维贫困越来越受到重视的情况下,本文在收入贫困和多维贫困两种贫困识别标准下,分析了教育改善贫困的效应在地区之间的异质性,考察了该效应是否受地区经济发展的影响。根据分层LOGIT模型的估计,本文认为地区经济发展水平是发挥教育改善收入贫困效应的重要舞台,对于多维贫困的改善效应则不明显。本文得到的一个重要扶贫政策建议是要发挥教育改善贫困的效应,必须注重精准扶贫与发展地区经济相结合;但仅仅发展经济,不一定能保证教育对多维贫困的改善效应,减轻多维贫困需要更加重视公共产品供给和民生保证。     

城镇贫困的特征演变

本文利用中国家庭收入调查数据研究了1988-2013年间我国城镇居民的贫困问题。以利用“马丁法”计算的各省历年贫困线作为贫困识别标准，发现25年间城镇地区的贫困率下降明显，尤其暂时性贫困和持久性贫困的贫困率已经很低，贫困人口以选择性贫困为主，即消费不足成为我国城镇人口贫困的主要特征。家庭人口多、有未成年子女会有更大概率陷入贫困，而教育和稳定的就业则可以有效缓解贫困。当前我国城镇地区的贫困人口认定和救助主要以收入为标准，本文认为应充分重视贫困人口消费不足的问题，拓展专项救助的范围，同时增大对教育、卫生、住房等基本民生保障的投入，减少低收入群体的过度储蓄，并特别关注贫困青少年的精神和物质消费需求。     

中国农村贫困的动态研究

 基于CHNS的八轮农村家庭收入调查数据，本文使用贫困发生率和平方缺口指数对农村贫困进行了实证分析，并把贫困变动分解为长期贫困效应、脱贫效应和返贫效应。实证结论表明，虽然长期贫困发生率呈现明显下降趋势，但是近期长期贫困的平方缺口指数表现出一定程度上升；脱贫效应是减少贫困的主要因素，返贫效应则是加剧贫困的诱因。此外，匿名性与非匿名性的增长率显示，匿名性低估了低收入阶层的实际收入增长率，从而高估了实际贫困。     

Poverty comparisons with common relative poverty lines

Relative poverty lines are increasingly being used in poverty comparison studies. Existing methods assume that the distributions being compared are distinct with independent relative poverty lines. However, this practice may be problematic when comparing two subgroups of a population. We follow up on a recent proposal for the usage of common relative poverty lines in such cases, and develop a test for comparing poverty between subgroups of a single population, using inequality restrictions. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted in order to examine the size and power of our proposed test. We illustrate our procedure using some U.S. household income data.     

个人所得税、减贫效应与居民收入增长的相对益贫性

本文结合国际前沿收入分配测度方法,基于贫困增长曲线（poverty growth curve,PGC）和收入增长相对益贫性（Relative pro-poorness of Growth,RPG）测度指标,应用2013年发布的新一轮中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）微观数据,从居民收入增长的相对益贫性这一新视角分析个人所得税的减贫效应及其对中国城乡居民收入分配的影响,由此阐释个人所得税对居民收入增长相对益贫性的影响机理,并得到更具针对性的个人所得税政策启示。     

农村正规金融与非正规金融的减贫效应——基于PVAR模型的经验分析

采用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)来研究农村正规金融、非正规金融发展的减贫效应。研究发现,农村正规金融发展存在一定的当期减贫效应,但持续减贫效应不显著。具体表现为仅在缓解农村贫困人口之间收入不平等程度上发挥了积极效应,而对减少农村绝对贫困人口数量和缓解农村贫困人口的收入短缺程度上没有发挥积极效应。农村非正规金融发展不仅具有较强的当期减贫效应,而且具有长期持续的减贫效应。其降低农村绝对贫困程度的效应要大于降低农村贫困人口相对收入短缺和收入不平等程度的效应。     

贫困测度指标及其评价

一、引言一般来说,研究贫困问题主要涉及三个方面:一是贫困的识别;二是贫困程度测定;三是反贫困效果判定以及相应的战略选择。贫困识别问题主要指贫困的基本范畴及贫困线的合理确定,关系到贫困集合的准确界定;贫困程度的测定主要指贫困指数的定义和计算,关系到贫困程度大小的判     

中国居民家庭的主观贫困感受研究

主观贫困包含着大量客观贫困无法体现的信息，是客观贫困测度的一种有效补充。本文提出了一种基于半参数广义可加模型的主观贫困效应的测度方法，利用中国社会状况综合调查（CSS）的微观调研数据，对影响我国居民主观贫困感受的决定因素以及主、客观贫困间的关系进行了实证研究。首先，按照CSS数据中居民对自身经济地位的自我评价，将居民划定为主观贫困和非主观贫困两种状态；其次，为了更加灵活的捕捉连续变量的影响，利用所提方法对影响主观贫困的因素进行了计量分析，并对主、客观贫困测度间的关系进行了分析。研究发现，居民主观上的贫困感受不仅受到家庭收入水平的影响，家庭规模、人口结构、教育水平、资产积累、医疗支出、家庭遭遇困境事件、居住位置等因素均会显著改变主观贫困发生的概率。因而居民主观贫困的脱离不仅依赖于经济条件的改善，教育、医疗保障等公共服务水平的提升、居民生活环境的改善、从政策上提高贫困人口应对困境的能力都对提升居民安全感和获得感具有重要的影响。     

Poverty as a System: Human Contestability Approach to Poverty Measurement

Since Sen's (1976) paper on poverty measurement, a substantial literature, both theoretical and empirical, has emerged. There have been several recent efforts to drive poverty measures based on different approaches and axioms. These poverty indices are based on head count ratio, poverty gaps and distribution of income. These are very narrow in approach and suffer from several drawbacks. However, the purpose of the present paper is to introduce a new poverty measure based on a holistic and system modelling approach. Based on Chopra's human contestability (Chopra, 2003, 2007) approach to poverty, this new approach to measuring poverty has been developed using a structure equation model based on Kanji's business excellence model (Kanji, 2002) to create the proposed poverty model. We construct a latent variable structural equation model to measure the contestability excellence within certain boundaries of the societal system. It will provide us with a measurement of poverty in a society or community in terms of human contestability. A higher human contestability index will indicate the lower poverty within the society. Strengths and weakness as of various components will also indicate that a characteristic of the individual requires extra society or government support to remove poverty. However, there remains considerable disagreement on the best way to achieve this.     

收入增长、分配公平与贫困减少

 利用CHNS调查数据,分两个阶段：1990-1999、1999-2005,依据收入分布函数定量讨论了收入增长、分配公平与贫困减少三者之间的关系。均值回归与O-B分解结果显示：收入决定机制是影响人均收入增长的主导因素,然而需要关注在1999-2005年间教育的系数效应为负。分位数回归与M-M分解显示：两个阶段,收入决定机制是导致居民收入分布向右偏移的主要原因;第一阶段的居民收入差距扩大主要源于劳动力特征的变化,第二阶段的居民收入差距扩大难以解释。Shapley分解结果显示：收入增长能显著减少贫困,而收入差距扩大会累及减贫效果;在两个不同阶段,贫困减少的增长效应贡献始终最大,而分配效应与贫困线变动效应贡献顺序发生了交替变化。     

U-Statistics and Their Asymptotic Results for Some Inequality and Poverty Measures

U-statistics form a general class of statistics that have certain important features in common. This class arises as a generalization of the sample mean and the sample variance, and typically members of the class are asymptotically normal with good consistency properties. The class encompasses some widely used income inequality and poverty measures, in particular the variance, the Gini index, the poverty rate, the average poverty gap ratios, the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index, and the Sen index and its modified form. This paper illustrates how these measures come together within the class of U-statistics, and thereby why U-statistics are useful in econometrics.     

U-Statistics and Their Asymptotic Results for Some Inequality and Poverty Measures

U-statistics form a general class of statistics that have certain important features in common. This class arises as a generalization of the sample mean and the sample variance, and typically members of the class are asymptotically normal with good consistency properties. The class encompasses some widely used income inequality and poverty measures, in particular the variance, the Gini index, the poverty rate, the average poverty gap ratios, the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index, and the Sen index and its modified form. This paper illustrates how these measures come together within the class of U-statistics, and thereby why U-statistics are useful in econometrics.     

贫困缺口总指数的构造、分解与应用

本文构造了一个新贫困指数 ,通过对 指数的因素分解及衍生指数的构造,提出了一些重要贫困指标的预测和推算办法。基于CHNS1991-2011年跨度20年的8轮调查数据进行实证分析,结果表明,我国农村近20年来总贫困缺口率呈现年均6.39%的缩减率,其贡献全部来自贫困人口总规模递减这一因素的影响,而另外两个因素,即平均贫困缺口水平和贫困差异度则呈现年均小幅上升趋势,表明减贫质量不容乐观;以现有减贫模式对我国农村2020年的平均贫困缺口水平、贫困不平等程度、贫困规模等指标进行预测显示,减贫目标依然任重道远;提出了采用精准减贫,重心在于提升贫困人口获取收入的能力和缩小贫困不平等程度的相关建议。     

中国城乡多维贫困的测度及比较

传统的仅用收入或消费来衡量贫困的方法只能提供单一的信息,从多维角度则能够较全面地认识贫困。本文利用CHNS数据库中2000年和2009年数据,借鉴了多维贫困指数的构造及分解方法,对近十年来中国城乡多维贫困进行了测度、分解及分析,认为总体上城乡贫困程度均有所减轻,农村贫困严重于城市,应重视医疗健康保险、卫生设施、城市住房、做饭燃料等维度上的贫困,同时降低中西部省份的贫困。     

精准扶贫政策效果评估——收入、消费、生活改善和外出务工

2014年以来我国开始大规模实施精准扶贫战略，科学估计该政策对我国贫困人口的影响至关重要。本文采用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）2014年和2016年两期数据，以贫困线为断点，研究了精准扶贫政策对农村贫困人口在家庭纯收入、转移支付收入、家庭人均消费、生活改善和外出务工等方面的影响。研究结果显示，精准扶贫政策显著提高了贫困户家庭的纯收入和转移支付收入水平，降低了人均消费支出和外出务工比例。进一步的研究显示，健康状况更好的贫困人口受到的政策影响更大，表明精准扶贫的政策影响具有异质性。这也提醒政策制定者在制定精准扶贫政策时要对因病致贫家庭予以特别关注。     

A Dynamic Latent Model for Poverty Measurement

The main purpose of this paper is the longitudinal analysis of the poverty phenomenon. By interpreting poverty as a latent variable, we are able to resort to the statistical methodology developed for latent structure analysis. In particular, we propose to use the mixture latent Markov model which allows us to achieve two goals: (i) a time-invariant classification of households into homogenous groups, representing different levels of poverty; (ii) the dynamic analysis of the poverty phenomenon which highlights the distinction between transitory and permanent poverty situations. Furthermore, we exploit the flexibility provided by the model in order to achieve the measurement of poverty in a multidisciplinary framework, using several socio-economic indicators as covariates and identifying the main relevant factors which influence permanent and transitory poverty. The analysis of the longitudinal data of the Survey on Households Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy provides the identification of two groups of households which are characterized by different dynamic features. Moreover, the inclusion of socio-economic covariates such as level of education, employment status, geographical area and residence size of the household head shows a direct association with permanent poverty.     

借助外部介入提升贫困家庭的脱贫决心——基于CHIP数据的实证分析

扶贫实践中发现有一些贫困家庭对脱贫没有决心,完全寄希望于政策支持和别人的帮扶,该现象成为扶贫攻坚中的一个难题。使用2013年中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据,集中分析了脱贫决心如何影响农村贫困家庭的行为,进而影响其收入增长。研究结果表明:缺乏脱贫决心是制约农村贫困家庭难以摆脱贫困的重要原因,解决贫困问题需要关注农村贫困家庭的脱贫决心,通过多种手段对这些贫困家庭进行心理沟通,提高贫困家庭对致贫原因及脱贫办法的认知能力,将会使他们产生脱贫信心。