Can increased educational attainment explain declining Indigenous fertility?

Prior research shows that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are more likely to have children and have more children, on average, than non-Indigenous women. However, like those of the total Australian population, fertility rates of Indigenous women have been declining since the 1970s. The decline has been more significant in recent years. Between 2006 and 2016, an increasing proportion of Indigenous women postponed childbirth from their teens into their 20s and 30s, leading women to have fewer children over their lifetimes. During the same period, there was a rapid increase in educational attainment among the Indigenous population. This paper examines educational gradients in fertility among Indigenous women and whether the observed fertility decline is linked with the increased educational attainment. Using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Australian Census of Population and Housing and applying a shift-share decomposition analysis, we find that education has been a big driver of falling fertility rates in non-remote areas. In remote areas, education has had a much smaller effect (except for youngest women).     

Spatial differences in fertility decline in Kenya: evidence from recent fertility surveys

Province level fertility and socioeconomic development indicators from the 1989 and 1993 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) document the spatial pattern of Kenya’s recent fertility decline. Although the data suggest that substantial regional variations in fertility reduction exist, fertility reduction has been pervasive throughout the 1989–1993 period. More specifically, the 1989 and 1993 KDHS data indicate that low fertility levels characterize the Nairobi–Central Province core while high fertility levels characterize Coast, Rift Valley and Western Province. However, Western Province has experienced the greatest percentage reduction in fertility throughout the period suggesting that the regional gaps in fertility decline are closing. Persistent fertility decline has also occurred in rural and urban areas, and fertility limitation is supported by Kenyan males. Factors impacting continued fertility reduction efforts are identified.     

Population pressure and agricultural productivity in Bangladesh

The relationship between population pressure or density and agricultural productivity is examined by analyzing the changes in the land-man ratio and the changes in the level of land yield in the 17 districts of Bangladesh from 1961-64 and 1974-77. The earlier years were pre-Green Revolution, whereas in the later years new technology had been introduced in some parts of the country. Net sown area, value of total agricultural output, and number of male agricultural workers were the main variables. For the country as a whole, agricultural output grew by 1.2%/year during 1961-64 to 1974-77, while the number of male agricultural workers grew at 1.5%/year. The major source of agricultural growth during the 1960s was found to be increased land-yield associated with a higher ratio of labor to land. The findings imply that a more intensified pattern of land use, resulting in both higher yield and higher labor input/unit of land, is the main source of growth of output and employment in agriculture. There is very little scope for extending the arable area in Bangladesh; increased production must come from multiple cropping, especially through expansion of irrigation and drainage, and from increases in per acre yields, principly through adoption of high yield variants, which explained 87% of the variation in output per acre during the 1970s. Regional variation in output was also associated with variation in cropping intensity and proportion of land given to high yield variants. There is considerable room for modernizing agricultural technology in Bangladesh: in 1975-76 less than 9% of total crop land was irrigated and only 12% of total acreage was under high yield variants. The adoption of new food-grain technology and increased use of high yield variants in Bangladesh's predominantly subsistence-based agriculture would require far-reaching institutional and organizational changes and more capital. Without effective population control, expansion of area under high yield variants would not improve the employment situation in the foreseeable future.     

A note on the analytical methods of differential determinants of fertility in Bangladesh

"This paper aims at making a note on the problems inherent in the analytical methods of differential determinants of fertility in Bangladesh. Two approaches are there to illustrate the issues. One is to pick up studies that have been conducted by different researchers, and make note of the problems from those studies. Another one is to pick up a data set and perform the relevant analyses to point out the limitations inherent in the methods. The second approach has been opted for this exercise.... The standard recode file (BD SRO3) of the Bangladesh Fertility Survey...has been used as the data source."     

Hindu-Muslim differential fertility: how much religious and how much socio?

Data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) of 1975 were used to test the hypotheses that the higher the socioeconomic status, the lower the fertility and the narrower the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus; and the lower the socioeconomic status, the higher the fertility and the greater the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus. The core group for analysis in this study of women married only once and reported to fecund includes 3914 Muslims and 824 Hindus. Actual analysis was based on fewer than these 4738 because of nonresponse to 1 or more pertinent interview questions used in this study. Multiple classification analysis (MCA) was used to analyze the data. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was a little lower than that of Hindus. The average number of children born to Muslims was 3.89; it was 3.95 for Hindus. Fertility tended to decline with improvement in socioeconomic status, i.e., increase in the level of education, i.e., no formal and primary level, and this almost converged at the middle and higher educational levels. At the lower levels of education, i.e., no formal and 1-5 grades, Muslims had .19-.34 children more than Hindus. This difference was reduced to .07 children at the middle level education, i.e., 6-9 grades. At the higher level of education, Muslims had .09 fewer children than Hindus, and this difference was statistically significant. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was higher than that of Hindus at almost every level of age at marriage. This picture was reversed when adjustment was made for the effect of other variables. At the lower levels of age at marriage, Muslims has .23-.20 more children than Hindus. At the middle age at marriage, Muslims had .08 fewer children than Hindus. This difference was statistically significant. There was virtually no difference between the 2 groups at the higher age at marriage, i.e., 20-21 years. The effect of urbanization on fertility by education differed for Hindus and Muslims. For Hindus, fertility at each level of education was higher in urban than in rural areas. For Muslims, fertility at each level of education, particularly at higher levels, was lower in urban than in rural areas. No significant difference was found in the use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus at higher levels of education, but at lower levels of education contraceptive use among Hindus was significantly higher than for Muslims. The findings suggest that with an improvement in education, fertility will decline with a corresponding increase in the use of contraception and the difference in fertility and use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus will disappear. The findings also support the tenet that development, especially education, is the best formula for reducing fertility in poor countries.     

Thailand's reproductive revolution

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy： Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland＇s Provincial Fertility Levels

“十一五”期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1．481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了“中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平”的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育平均只有4．12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。     

The geography of fertility reduction in Kenya

Record high fertility levels were recorded for Kenya in the late 1970's; however, a fertility reversal was experienced during the 1980's. Recent studies by Njoru, Robinson and the National Research Council and data from the 1989 and 1993 KDHS indicate that the fertility decline is real and pervasive. The release of the 1989 census data provides researchers with an additional source to document the fertility decline and to identify the spatial pattern of fertility reduction at the province and district level. The geography of fertility reduction is explored by addressing differences in the annual rate of population growth for each province and district.     

Attached to Income Support Programs for the Elderly:

Although there is every evidence that the degree of stigma attached to income support programs for the elderly has been decreasing, only about one-half of the elderly individuals who are eligible participate currently in the Supplemental Security Income program (SSI). The present study explores issues of stigma as perceived by low-income elderly persons who were not receiving Old Age Assistance payments in 1973-a year before SSI went into effect. The results of regression analysis indicate that their attitudes toward issues of stigma are statistically nonsignificant predictors of whether they would contact social security ofiice in 1974 to inquire about their eligibility for SSI benefits. The data source for the present study is the Survey of the Low-Income Aged and Disabled (SLIAD) conducted in 1973 and 1974 by the Social Security Administration with the cooperation of the Bureau of the Census.     

The socio-cultural context of child marriage in a Bangladeshi village

This article focuses on the reasons for child marriage in a Bangladeshi village. Although the mean age of marriage for women in Bangladesh is currently 20.2, nearly half of all girls are married before the age of 18. In Bangladesh, female sexuality is controlled through early marriage and the custom of purdah , which limits the social interactions between men and women. The methodology of this research was participant observation, supplemented by questionnaires, discussions, interviews and the construction of case studies. The study was conducted in a village in Bangladesh, and looked at why the rural people of Bangladesh marry off their daughters at an early age, whether they think that they will profit from it, and how. Cost-benefit analysis in exchange theory provides the theoretical framework. This study finds that child marriage occurs as a result of the profit-making motive of the people of Bangladesh, despite the huge costs to the individuals involved, the local community and society as a whole.     

灾后重建中的资源再分配与健康不平等:基于三期汶川地震重建调查

基于2008年至2011年间三期汶川灾区调查数据，本文假定应急救灾、恢复重建和重建结束三个阶段政府的再分配能力存在差异，进而分析这一时段不同职业和教育群体之间的健康差异变化情况。研究发现，首先，在自评健康上，2011年呈现显著的教育梯度，而2008和2009年则无显著的教育差异。其次，在心理健康上，2011年存在显著的教育梯度，2009年存在较弱的教育梯度，2008年未呈现系统性教育梯度。第三，在自评和心理健康上各年份均未呈现系统性的职业阶层梯度。第四，稳健性比较分析表明灾区健康差异模式存在独特性。本文认为，在应急救灾阶段政府再分配能力骤增，提升了弱势阶层的医疗资源可及性，进而降低了阶层健康不平等。但该模式不具有可持续性，一旦重建结束、外部资源减少，不平等会回到常态社会水平。     

Differential female mortality and health care in South Asia

This report examines differential female mortality in South Asia--India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Under conditions of mortality decline and an aggregate trend toward convergence of life expectancy, disequilibria which are comparatively unusual, persist. The converging life expectancies are a product of changes unique to each sex. Female mortality gains after the reproductive period conceal excess female mortality from the post-neonatal period to 5 years and in most regions of South Asia during the reproductive years as well. These imbalances appear to be most exaggerated on the upper Gangetic plain and among communities such as the Jats and Rajputs. The most marked imbalances do not bear a consistent relationship to economic conditions. They may, however, be declining over time. In certain regions of India, most notably in the peripheral south, discrimination against women is not seen in demographic data and has not been for several decades. Male life expectancy is being affected by only slow improvement in male mortality from age 35. Major social changes are accompanying these changes in gender differences in vital statistics, including changes in the technology of agricultural production, falling female participation rates, the education of girls, the increasing practice of dowry, and fertility decision making changes. It is not clear whether child mortality or maternal mortality is the key to the political economy of Indian demography, whether maldistribution of food or health care is the prime determinant of excess female child mortality, whether excess female mortality is the result of being neglect or conscious selection, whether regional contrasts result from differences in the religious roles of sons between north and south India, whether the female sex is culturally inferior and the male sex superior, whether food scarcity is more important than food availability in the determination of sex bias, whether poverty results in greater discrimination, whether class position determines reproductive strategy, whether major contrasts in demographic regime exist between north and south India, or whether material conditions or cultural practices determine demographic regimes. The workshop papers contributed data for the decision process, advocacy for the agenda, and details on the results of implementation, and the realities of access.     

A "Migration of Despair": Unemployment, the Search for Work, and Migration to Farms During the Great Depression

Objective . This study examines migration to farms during the Great Depression, when many displaced workers moved to farms in nearby rural areas searching for a means of livelihood. Methods . Regression analyses of data from the USDA, Census Bureau, and other sources are used. Results . (1) The rate of migration was greatest in places where the search for work by the unemployed was most intense. (2) The "push" of economic dislocation was a more significant factor in the migration than was the "pull" of the expected payoff to the movement. (3) Those who moved tended to be the long-term unemployed and labor force dropouts, suggesting that the migration was most sensitive to lengthy spells of joblessness. Conclusions . The results support hypotheses derived from theory and research and are most consistent with the classic "push-pull" model, which holds that the jobless will move to look for work or for other means of sustenance.     

Food crises and female children in rural Bangladesh

Although almost all nations show lower female than male mortality, Bangladesh and certain other developing countries show higher female mortality rates. Among children aged 1 to 4 in Bangladesh, female mortality rates are 45% higher for girls than for boys. This paper examines whether 1) sex biased attitudes toward nutrition (as expressed in terms of food intake) are more marked during food crises, and 2) these biases are related to the socioeconomic status of the family. The study measured weight and height of approximately 1400 children aged 1 to 4 in Bangladesh from April 1975 (10 months after the famine began) through December 1976 (14 months after the famine ended). The findings clearly indicate that sex and social status are strong correlates of nutritional status. Children of higher status families with larger homes fared better throughout the time period. Within each status category, boys fared better than girls. While poor families were harder hit by famine than wealthier ones, male-female nutritional discrimination was stronger among the higher classes. These differences were accentuated during the famine period. Policy makers and planners in Bangladesh must be made aware that such sex biases exist and that these patterns are exacerbated during food shortages.     

Role of migration in the urbanisation process of Assam

The role of migration in the urbanization process of Assam, India, is investigated. Trends in urbanization since 1901 are first briefly reviewed. Rural-urban migration in Assam during the periods 1951-1961 and 1961-1971 is then analyzed using data from the 1961 and 1971 censuses. It is concluded that "net rural to urban migration...has made a significant contribution to the total urbanisation process."     

Victorian values and the fertility decline: the case of Scotland

The author examines the final phase of the demographic transition in Scotland during the late nineteenth century. Particular attention is given to explanations developed by Joseph Banks concerning the fertility decline in England and Wales. Banks's analysis is reevaluated by applying it to data for Scotland. No clear pattern of fertility by occupation is found. It is suggested instead that both family size limitation and emphasis on higher education were results of value reorientations.     

The politics and economics of food and famine in Bangladesh in the early 1970s – with special reference to Amartya Sen's interpretation of the 1974 famine

Bangladesh confronted two formidable food crises in 1972 and 1974. While the government succeeded in averting a widely predicted famine in the first case, it failed to prevent an actual famine in the later case when such a cataclysmic disaster was least anticipated. Evidence suggests that the 1974 famine was caused by successive onslaughts of natural disasters such as floods and droughts, and man-made disasters such as the government's inability to import foods, the directing of subsidised food to the politically vocal urban population, an abrupt fall in food aid and political and administrative corruption that encouraged massive hoarding and the smuggling of food grain. This article argues that Noble Laureate economist Amartya Sen's seminal analysis of the 1974 Bangladesh famine on the basis of his 'entitlement approach' fails to capture most of these circumventing factors. The article also argues that by undermining the politico-administrative dynamics of the famine, and by applying his entitlement approach only half-heartedly in examining it, Sen somewhat trivialises the sufferings of a famine-affected population under a corrupt and inefficient political regime.     

The relation between population and health in a crisis

This work argues that the economic crisis in Latin America resulting from structural adjustment programs and recession has had deleterious effects on the relationship between demographic factors and health. 2 works presented at the 1989 International Union for the Scientific Study of Population meeting in New Delhi considered the difficulty of demonstrating unambiguously the demographic effects of the economic crisis. This work, instead of looking at overall rates which may not have been greatly affected, focuses on 3 specific areas that reflect the relationship between population and health in the context of the crisis. Although the infant mortality rate has continued to decline in almost all countries and regions of Latin America during the crisis, the decline has been unequal in different sectors. A comparison of data from the 1987 National Survey of Fertility and Health in Mexico with that of the 1982 National Demographic Survey shows that rural infant mortality declined by only 1% between the 2 surveys, while urban infant mortality declined by 21%. An indicator of available services in the household showed the same increase inequality. Disaggregation of infant mortality data for Mexico suggests that even a presumably biological determinant, maternal age, loses much of its weight when socioeconomic factors are considered. Other studies, on the impact of maternal education, similarly indicate that the relationship is different for different social sectors. The infant mortality data taken together suggest that infant mortality continues to ba a valid indicator of social inequality, and that the crisis has had the effect of increasing inequality and worsening the relative conditions of the least advantaged. In the area of fertility, data from the 1989 National Survey of Fertility and Health in Mexico are used to argue that family planning programs are integral components of an authoritarian governmental political style. The survey indicated that sterilization is now the most commonly used contraceptive method in Mexico and that fully 12.4% of sterilized women did not make the decision to be sterilized themselves. 34% of illiterate women who were sterilized did not make the decision themselves. 14% of all the women but 33% of illiterate women reported they would not be sterilized if they could make the decision again. These data and others on the high proportion of women who undergo sterilization at young ages and low parities and without being informed of other methods suggest that the attitude of the official family planning program is becoming more authoritarian and less respectful of human rights as it seeks to curb population growth. The area of health effects has usually been ignored in migration studies. The phenomenon of Mexican migrant workers in the US who return to Mexico after contracting AIDS is an obvious example of the link between population variables and health.     

Measuring Gay Populations and Antigay Hate Crime

Objectives . The study of crime directed at gay and lesbian targets is hampered by two measurement problems: Police agencies provide unreliable data on hate crime, and tract-level census data contain no direct information about gay or lesbian population density. This article attempts to gauge two quantities that cannot be measured directly or unambiguously: the size of the gay and lesbian populations and the number of hate crimes directed at gay and lesbian targets. Methods . Population data for New York City were gathered from market research lists and from a special tabulation of the 1990 Census. Hate crime data were obtained from the Anti-Violence Project and the New York Police Department. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the reliability of each measure and the correlation between latent population density and hate crime. Results . Each of these measures offers a reliable means by which to assess cross-sectional differences in the population density and victimization of gay men. Census and police data prove to be inferior indicators of lesbian population density and antilesbian hate crime. For both men and women, population density is strongly correlated with the incidence of hate crime. Conclusions . Despite the fact that advocacy groups record many more antigay incidents than do the police, both sources of data are in agreement about where hate crimes occur. The strong correlation between population density and hate crime against gay men implies that Census data could be used to forecast the occurrence of hate crime in areas where no police records exist.