Sentiments

This paper develops a new theory of fluctuations—one that helps accommodate the notions of “animal spirits” and “market sentiment” in unique‐equilibrium, rational‐expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique‐equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom‐and‐bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.     

LIQUIDITY AND INEFFICIENT INVESTMENT

We study consumer liquidity in a general equilibrium model where the friction is the nonpledgeability of future income. Liquidity helps to overcome the absence of a double coincidence of wants. Consumers over‐hoard liquidity and the resulting competitive equilibrium is constrained inefficient. Fiscal policy following a large negative shock can increase ex‐ante welfare. If the government cannot commit, the ex‐post optimal fiscal policy will be too small from an ex‐ante perspective. The model throws light on the holding of foreign reserves in international markets.     

Identifying success factors for female entrepreneurs using the AMO framework: Empirical evidence from Japan

This study applies deep insights from the ability, motivation, and opportunity (AMO) framework as an overarching theoretical perspective to identify critical success factors for female entrepreneurs. In doing so, it investigates how entrepreneurial persistence (i.e., motivation or “M”), together with prior venture experience (i.e., ability or “A”) and competitive intensity (i.e., opportunity or “O”) influence the success of women's entrepreneurial activities. Using data from 308 Japanese female entrepreneurs, we show a positive association between entrepreneurial persistence and female entrepreneurs' venture growth, which becomes stronger when prior venture experience and competitive intensity are considered. Most importantly, the three-way interaction between these factors maximizes the business performance of female entrepreneurs. Thus, venture growth is the highest in the presence of high levels of entrepreneurial persistence, prior venture experience, and competitive intensity. Our findings suggest that policy makers should improve the competitiveness of women-led ventures and create supportive business environments for female entrepreneurs.     

Strategic Management of Distressed Inventory

It is well known that maximizing revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods may require discounting prices rather than allowing unsold inventory to perish. This behavior is seen in industries ranging from fashion retail to tour packages and baked goods. A number of authors have addressed the markdown management problem in which a seller seeks to determine the optimal sequence of discounts to maximize the revenue from a fixed stock of perishable goods. However, merchants who consistently use markdown policies risk training customers to “wait for the sale.” We investigate models in which the decision to sell inventory at a discount will change the future expectations of customers and hence their buying behavior. We show that, in equilibrium, a single‐price policy is optimal if all consumers are strategic and demand is known to the seller. Relaxing any of these conditions can lead to a situation in which a two‐price markdown policy is optimal. We show using numerical simulation that if customers update their expectations of availability over time, then optimal sales limit policies can evolve in a complex fashion.     

UNEMPLOYED BUT OPTIMISTIC: OPTIMAL INSURANCE DESIGN WITH BIASED BELIEFS

This paper analyzes how biased beliefs about employment prospects affect the optimal design of unemployment insurance. Empirically, I find that the unemployed greatly overestimate how quickly they will find work. As a consequence, they would search too little for work, save too little for unemployment and deplete their savings too rapidly when unemployed. I analyze the use of the “sufficient‐statistics” formula to characterize the optimal unemployment policy when beliefs are biased and revisit the desirability of providing liquidity to the unemployed. I also find that the optimal unemployment policy may involve increasing benefits during the unemployment spell.     

投资者情绪指标与股票市场——基于扩展卡尔曼滤波方法的研究

基于扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)方法,首次构造出过滤市场噪声的投资者情绪指标,并在此基础上应用向量自回归模型分析我国投资者情绪指标与股票收益、股本规模等因素的经验关系,实证结果表明:(1)扩展卡尔曼滤波方法可以获得一个更加清晰反映投资者情绪的状态变量;(2)情绪的变化量比情绪指标本身具有更强的市场收益预测能力;(3)大规模公司股票的收益对投资者情绪的影响程度高于小规模公司股票,而投资者情绪对小规模公司股票的影响显著高于大规模公司的股票,并且情绪波动能够预测小规模股票的短期收益惯性和跨期收益反转的特征,证明情绪波动是影响资产定价的重要主观因素。     

A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default

We study, theoretically and quantitatively, the general equilibrium of an economy in which households smooth consumption by means of both a riskless asset and unsecured loans with the option to default. The default option resembles a bankruptcy filing under Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Competitive financial intermediaries offer a menu of loan sizes and interest rates wherein each loan makes zero profits. We prove the existence of a steady‐state equilibrium and characterize the circumstances under which a household defaults on its loans. We show that our model accounts for the main statistics regarding bankruptcy and unsecured credit while matching key macroeconomic aggregates, and the earnings and wealth distributions. We use this model to address the implications of a recent policy change that introduces a form of “means testing” for households contemplating a Chapter 7 bankruptcy filing. We find that this policy change yields large welfare gains.     

The Dynamics of Inequality

The past forty years have seen a rapid rise in top income inequality in the United States. While there is a large number of existing theories of the Pareto tail of the long‐run income distributions, almost none of these address the fast rise in top inequality observed in the data. We show that standard theories, which build on a random growth mechanism, generate transition dynamics that are too slow relative to those observed in the data. We then suggest two parsimonious deviations from the canonical model that can explain such changes: “scale dependence” that may arise from changes in skill prices, and “type dependence,” that is, the presence of some “high‐growth types.” These deviations are consistent with theories in which the increase in top income inequality is driven by the rise of “superstar” entrepreneurs or managers.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A NON‐RICARDIAN ECONOMY

I present a model with discontinuous asset‐market participation (DAMP), where all agents are non‐Ricardian, and where heterogeneity among market participants implies financial‐wealth effects on aggregate consumption. The implied welfare criterion shows that financial stability arises as an additional and independent target, besides inflation and output stability. Evaluation of optimal policy under discretion and commitment reveals that price stability may no longer be optimal, even absent inefficient supply shocks: some fluctuations in output and inflation may be optimal as long as they reduce financial instability. Ignoring the heterogeneity among market participants may lead monetary policy to induce substantially higher welfare losses.     

PUBLIC DEBT UNDER LIMITED PRIVATE CREDIT

There is a conventional wisdom in economics that public debt can serve as a substitute for private credit if private borrowing is limited. The purpose of this paper is to show that, while a government could in principle use such a policy to fully relax borrowing limits, this is not generally optimal. In our economy, agents invest in a short‐term asset, a long‐term asset, and government bonds. Agents are subject to idiosyncratic liquidity shocks prior to the maturity of the long‐term asset. We show that a high public debt policy fully relaxes private borrowing limits and is suboptimal. This is because agents expecting such a policy respond by investing less than is socially optimal in the short asset which can protect them in the event of a liquidity shock. The optimal policy is more constrained and it induces a wedge between the technological rate of return on the long asset and the rate of return on bonds. In such a regime, agents subject to liquidity shocks are also borrowing constrained, and this expectation of being borrowing constrained induces them to invest the optimal level in the short asset.     

Moral Hazard Contracting and Private Credit Markets

This paper studies the impact of credit markets on optimal contracting, when the agent's “interim preference” over upcoming contracts is private information because personal financial decisions affect it via the wealth effect. The main result is a severe loss of incentive provision: equilibrium contracts invariably cause the agent to shirk (i.e., exert minimal effort) if the agent's private financial decision precedes moral hazard contracting. The basic intuition is that committing on another private variable, other than the effort level, exposes the parties to further exploitation of efficient risk‐sharing by relaxing the incentive constraint that was binding ex ante, unless the risk‐sharing was fully efficient to begin with.     

Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge

An asymmetric information model of a finite horizon “nth order” rational asset price bubble is presented, where (all agents know that)ⁿ the asset is worthless. Also, the model has only two agents, so the first order version of the bubble is simpler than other first order bubbles in the literature.     

中国股市泡沫破裂临界时点动态置信区间研究

本文在对数周期幂率(LPPL)模型基础上,分别构建了“滚动窗口”以及“固定起点并移动终点”两种泡沫临界点动态置信区间构建方法,并以中国股市沪深300指数在2007年和2015年发生的两次大牛市股市崩盘为研究对象,采用两种新的方法进行样本外预测,计算出泡沫破裂的临界时点以及动态置信区间。研究结果表明,随着时间的不断推移,泡沫破裂临界时点的置信区间基本上能稳定覆盖实际发生泡沫破裂的时点。相比单纯利用LPPL模型预测临界时点方法,置信区间法能更好地克服预测临界时点随机性的情况,并能很好显示股市泡沫临界区间的变化轨迹,为投资者风险管理提供参考。     

投资者情绪对股票市场收益和波动的影响-基于开放式股票型基金资金净流入的实证研究

投资者情绪立足于投资者非理性的角度,能够对股票市场的大幅波动作出较好的解释。当前国内以开放式股票型基金角度分析投资者情绪的研究尚为空白。本文以开放式股票型基金资金净流入作为投资者情绪的度量指标,运用GARCH-M模型研究了投资者情绪对股票市场收益和波动的影响。研究结果表明：投资者情绪与股票市场收益之间存在正向反馈作用;且在以股票市值为分类的组合中,发现大市值股票组合受投资者情绪影响的股票市场指数条件波动越大,股票组合收益越大;小市值股票组合受投资者情绪影响的股票市场指数条件波动越大,则股票组合收益反而越小。     

投资者情绪生成机理的研究

基于标准金融理论与行为金融理论相结合的思想，力图刻画投资者情绪的生成机理。以引起投资者情绪变化的货币环境、市场收益、市场波动、相关资产收益等因素为起点，引入市场投资价值、市场预期两个中间变量，建立了包含直接和间接影响两类路径的投资者情绪生成概念模型。使用中国股市2014年7月1日至2017年3月31日间的667组日度数据，在VAR建模的基础上开展实证研究。实证结果表明市场收益对投资者情绪具有直接的正向影响，市场波动和相关资产收益两因素基于市场预期中介变量间接负向作用于投资者情绪，而修正后引入的经济周期波动变量可以基于市场投资价值中介变量对投资者情绪产生正向影响，并进一步发现了市场收益、市场投资价值与投资者情绪之间存在正反馈强化过程。研究揭示出了投资者情绪生成的影响因素体系及其实现路径，将该领域研究深入到机理分析层面，并从一个侧面佐证了中国股市过度投机行为的存在。     

Optimal Pricing Strategies for Capacity Leasing Based on Time and Volume Usage in Telecommunication Networks

In this study, we examined optimal pricing strategies for “pay‐per‐time,” “pay‐per‐volume,” and “pay‐per‐both‐time‐and‐volume” based leasing of data networks in a monopoly environment. Conventionally, network capacity distribution includes short‐/long‐term bandwidth and/or usage time leasing. When customers choose connection‐time–based pricing, their rational behavior is to fully utilize the bandwidth capacity within a fixed time period, which may cause the network to burst (or overload). Conversely, when customers choose volume‐based strategies their rational behavior is to send only the minimum bytes necessary (even for time‐fixed tasks for real time applications), causing the quality of the task to decrease, which in turn creates an opportunity cost for the provider. Choosing a pay‐per time and volume hybridized pricing scheme allows customers to take advantage of both pricing strategies while lessening the disadvantages of each, because consumers generally have both time‐ and size‐fixed tasks such as batch data transactions. One of the key contributions of this study is to show that pay‐per both time and volume pricing is a viable and often preferable alternative to the offerings based on only time or volume, and that judicious use of such a pricing policy is profitable to the network provider.     

DEBT,POLICY UNCERTAINTY,AND EXPECTATIONS STABILIZATION

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary and fiscal policy enlarges the set of policies consistent with stability. However, absent anchored fiscal expectations, the advantages from anchoring monetary expectations are smaller the larger is the average level of indebtedness. Finally, even when expectations are stabilized in the long run, the higher are average debt levels the more persistent will be the effects of disturbances out of rational expectations equilibrium.     

Search for Yield

We present a model of the relationship between real interest rates, credit spreads, and the structure and risk of the banking system. Banks intermediate between entrepreneurs and investors, and can monitor entrepreneurs' projects. We characterize the equilibrium for a fixed aggregate supply of savings, showing that safer entrepreneurs will be funded by nonmonitoring banks and riskier entrepreneurs by monitoring banks. We show that an increase in savings reduces interest rates and spreads, and increases the relative size of the nonmonitoring banking system and the probability of failure of monitoring banks. We also show that the dynamic version of the model exhibits endogenous boom and bust cycles, and rationalizes the existence of countercyclical risk premia and the connection between low interest rates, tight credit spreads, and the buildup of risks during booms.     

中国老股转让制度提高还是降低了IPO定价效率?——基于投资者行为下的理论与实证分析框架

在假定投资者存在私人信息的情况下,以投资者行为为研究视角,构建了老股转让前后IPO定、抑价模型,研究了老股转让前后投资者行为对IPO定价效率的影响,并进行了比较分析。理论模型和数值分析表明:在两种不同的制度下,散户投资者越乐观,IPO定价效率越低,且散户和机构投资者之间的分歧越大,IPO定价效率也越低;在投资者情绪相同的情况下,老股转让制度降低了IPO抑价,具有更高的定价效率;然而,当老股转让后投资者之间的分歧大于老股转让前分歧时,则可能导致老股转让后的IPO抑价高于老股转让前的IPO抑价,即老股转让后的IPO抑价更高,IPO定价效率更低。论文以我国2009-2012以及2014年IPO数据进行实证研究,初步统计发现,老股转让后的IPO抑价明显高于老股转让前IPO抑价,得到与理论模型恰好相反的结论;实证分析结果表明,老股转让后投资者情绪对IPO抑价影响明显大于老股转让前的,也就是说,由于老股转让制度反而提高了我国投资者的乐观情绪,从而导致了与理论模型预期恰好相反的结果。因此,加强投资者理性培养对于我国IPO市场化改革的成败至关重要。     

Advance Selling in the Presence of Speculators and Forward‐Looking Consumers

This article examines the pricing policy of a monopolist seller who may sell in advance of consumption in a market that comprises of myopic consumers, forward‐looking consumers, and speculators. The latter group has no consumption value for the goods and is in the market with the sole objective of making a profit by reselling the purchased goods shortly after. Consumers, although homogeneous in terms of their valuations, are different with respect to their perspectives. We show that in an “upward” market where the expected valuation increases over time, the optimal pricing policy is an ex ante “static” one where the seller “prices into the future” and prices the myopic consumers out of the advance market. However, in a “downward” market where the expected valuation decreases over time, the seller adopts a dynamic pricing strategy except for the case when higher initial sales can trigger more demand subsequently and when the downward trend is not too high. In this case, the seller prefers an ex ante “static” pricing strategy and deliberately prices lower initially to sell to speculators. We identify the conditions under which the seller benefits from the existence of speculators in the market. Moreover, although the presence of entry costs is ineffective as an entry deterrence, we determine the conditions under which exit costs can rein in speculative purchase.