Efficacy,Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks

A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self‐efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self‐efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self‐efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.     

FAMILY TIES AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

We establish an inverse relationship between family ties and political participation, such that the more individuals rely on the family as a provider of services, insurance, and transfer of resources, the lower is one's civic engagement and political participation. We also show that strong family ties appear to be a substitute for generalized trust, rather than a complement to it. These three constructs—civic engagement, political participation, and trust—are part of what is known as social capital; therefore, in this paper, we contribute to the investigation of the origin and evolution of social capital. We establish these results using within‐country evidence and looking at the behavior of immigrants from various countries in 32 different destination places.     

Attenuating Initial Beliefs: Increasing the Acceptance of Anthropogenic Climate Change Information by Reflecting on Values

Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self‐affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self‐affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts.     

Understanding the Determinants of Service Channel Preference in the Early Stages of Adoption: A Social Cognitive Perspective on Online Brokerage Services*

In today's increasingly technology‐mediated world, individuals are often confronted with a decision of whether to obtain services through online, self‐service technologies or traditional, nontechnological alternatives. Understanding the mechanisms by which consumers choose among these competing service channels represents an important concern for organizations, consumers, and Web site designers. This study develops a research model based on Social Cognitive Theory to explain and predict service channel preferences that arise in the early stages of adoption, before a consumer conducts business using a particular channel. The model is subsequently tested in the brokerage services context, using observations obtained via survey. Given the growing popularity of online investing combined with the challenging prospect of making optimal decisions in an inherently risky environment, the context offers insights of practical and theoretical importance. The results suggest that task‐specific self‐efficacy beliefs serve as the activating mechanism kicking off a chain of psychological events that entice consumers to favor a particular service channel. Higher levels of self‐efficacy induce individuals to prefer the online approach. In addition to its direct effect on preference for the online service channel, higher levels of self‐efficacy influence one's propensity to take risks and expectations of performance‐oriented rewards, which, in turn, sway consumers to favor the online service channel. Furthermore, self‐efficacy and perceptions concerning the credibility of online information interact to affect service channel preference. Consumers are more likely to prefer the online service channel when they view themselves as capable and perceive online sources to be credible. Implications for theory and practice are discussed in light of the findings.     

Enhancing Self‐Protective Behavior: Efficacy Beliefs and Peer Feedback in Risk Communication

In times of a high‐impact safety incident citizens may have a variety of sources available to help them cope with the situation. This research focuses on the interplay of efficacy information in risk communication messages and peer feedback, such as responses on social network sites (SNSs) in the context of a high‐impact risk on the intention to engage in self‐protective behavior. The study pitted high and low efficacy information messages against supporting and opposing peer feedback (N = 242). Results show a significant interaction effect between efficacy information in a news article and peer feedback from SNS messages on both the intention to engage in self‐protective behavior and levels of involvement. Participants who received the article with more efficacy information and also received supportive peer feedback via SNS messages were more likely to express higher levels of involvement and greater intentions to engage in protective behavior. When confronted with a low efficacious news article, the effect of peer feedback on these two variables was significantly stronger. Finally, implications for theory and government risk communication are discussed.     

Precision of Information,Sensational Information,and Self‐Efficacy Information as Message‐Level Variables Affecting Risk Perceptions

Studies that investigate how the mass media cover risk issues often assume that certain characteristics of content are related to specific risk perceptions and behavioral intentions. However, these relationships have seldom been empirically assessed. This study tests the influence of three message‐level media variables—risk precision information, sensational information, and self‐efficacy information—on perceptions of risk, individual worry, and behavioral intentions toward a pervasive health risk. Results suggest that more precise risk information leads to increased risk perceptions and that the effect of sensational information is moderated by risk precision information. Greater self‐efficacy information is associated with greater intention to change behavior, but none of the variables influence individual worry. The results provide a quantitative understanding of how specific characteristics of informational media content can influence individuals’ responses to health threats of a global and uncertain nature.     

Risk Perception and Disaster Preparedness in Immigrants and Canadian‐Born Adults: Analysis of a National Survey on Similarities and Differences

Research has documented that immigrants tend to experience more negative consequences from natural disasters compared to native‐born individuals, although research on how immigrants perceive and respond to natural disaster risks is sparse. We investigated how risk perception and disaster preparedness for natural disasters in immigrants compared to Canadian‐born individuals as justifications for culturally‐adapted risk communication and management. To this end, we analyzed the ratings on natural disaster risk perception beliefs and preparedness behaviors from a nationally representative survey (N = 1,089). Factor analyses revealed three underlying psychological dimensions of risk perception: external responsibility for disaster management, self‐preparedness responsibility, and illusiveness of preparedness. Although immigrants and Canadian‐born individuals shared the three‐factor structure, there were differences in the salience of five risk perception beliefs. Despite these differences, immigrants and Canadian‐born individuals were similar in the level of risk perception dimensions and disaster preparedness. Regression analyses revealed self‐preparedness responsibility and external responsibility for disaster management positively predicted disaster preparedness whereas illusiveness of preparedness negatively predicted disaster preparedness in both groups. Our results showed that immigrants’ risk perception and disaster preparedness were comparable to their Canadian‐born counterparts. That is, immigrant status did not necessarily yield differences in risk perception and disaster preparedness. These social groups may benefit from a risk communication and management strategy that addresses these risk perception dimensions to increase disaster preparedness. Given the diversity of the immigrant population, the model remains to be tested by further population segmentation.     

Elite Recruitment and Political Stability: The Impact of the Abolition of China's Civil Service Exam

This paper studies how the abolition of an elite recruitment system—China's civil exam system that lasted over 1,300 years—affects political stability. Employing a panel data set across 262 prefectures and exploring the variations in the quotas on the entry‐level exam candidates, we find that higher quotas per capita were associated with a higher probability of revolution participation after the abolition and a higher incidence of uprisings in 1911 that marked the end of the 2,000 years of imperial rule. This finding is robust to various checks including using the number of small rivers and short‐run exam performance before the quota system as instruments. The patterns in the data appear most consistent with the interpretation that in regions with higher quotas per capita under the exam system, more would‐be elites were negatively affected by the abolition. In addition, we document that modern human capital in the form of those studying in Japan also contributed to the revolution and that social capital strengthened the effect of quotas on revolution participation.     

Cross‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission

Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zika epidemic provided an opportunity to explore this. The current research provides some exploratory tests of this topic derived from two studies with similar measures, but different primary outcomes: one study that included knowledge of Zika as a key outcome and one that included conspiracy beliefs about Zika as a key outcome. Both studies involved cross‐sectional data collections that occurred during the same two periods of the Zika outbreak: one data collection prior to the first cases of local Zika transmission in the United States (March–May 2016) and one just after the first cases of local transmission (July–August). Using ordinal logistic and linear regression analyses of data from two time points in both studies, the authors show an increase in relationship strength between greater perceived risk and self‐efficacy with both increased knowledge and increased conspiracy beliefs after local Zika transmission in the United States. Although these results highlight that similar psychological motivations may lead to Zika knowledge and conspiracy beliefs, there was a divergence in demographic association.     

Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism Risk Assessments

Recollection bias is the phenomenon whereby people who observe a highly unexpected event hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article replicates and extends the authors’ previous study of recollection bias in relation to individuals’ perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the current risk of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting is no higher than they recall having believed, respectively, before the 9/11 attack and before the Boston Marathon bombing. By contrast, a rational Bayesian model would update to a higher currently assessed risk of these previously uncontemplated events. Recollection bias is a persistent trait: individuals who exhibited this bias for the 9/11 attack exhibited it for the Boston Marathon bombing. Only one‐fifth of respondents are free of any type of recollection bias. Recollection bias is negatively correlated with absolute levels of risk belief. Recollection bias in relation to highly unexpected terrorist events—the belief that perceived risks did not increase after the surprise occurrence—dampens support for a variety of anti‐terrorism measures, controlling for the level of risk beliefs and demographic factors. Persistent recollection bias for both 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing is especially influential in diminishing support for protective policy measures, such as surveillance cameras in public places. Given that public attitudes influence policy, educating the public about risk is critical.     

SOVEREIGN DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

We develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies. How much investors are willing to lend to a country's government depends on the country's expected primary surplus, the level and volatility of its rate of growth, and how much debt the government expects to be able to raise in the future for the purpose of servicing the debt it seeks to raise today. We provide a simple formula that computes a country's maximum sustainable debt (MSD) as a function of four easy‐to‐estimate parameters. We further compute a country's theoretical probability of default (PD) as a function of its debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We finally calibrate our measures for 23 OECD countries and test the relation between sovereign yield spreads and our theoretical PD at prevailing debt levels. We find it to be strongly statistically significant.     

Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change

Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.     

Shareholders' Wealth‐Maximizing Operating Decisions and Risk Management Practices in a Mixed Contracts Economy

This paper establishes a critically important positive role for operations management practices and financial hedging. We show that operations management decisions and financial hedging are intertwined, and we advance a framework that can identify their combined effects on investors' wealth. We show that: (a) firms (publicly traded corporations) will optimally hold adequate riskless working capital (e.g., cash) to minimize the cost of obtaining non‐financial inputs, and the magnitude of this cash holding depends on operating details, and (b) operations management and financial hedging can lower firms' cash requirements, and boost productivity, defined as the wealth created in the firm per dollar of invested capital. Productivity‐enhancing practices—by “freeing up” some of the firm's cash—can maximize the investors' wealth. We show that these results obtain because firms' contracts with many of the providers of non‐financial inputs are not traded, and because investors can invest not just in public corporations but also in businesses “outside the markets” (e.g., proprietorships, partnerships, and private equity).     

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro‐level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro‐level psychology to examine individual‐level risk‐related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk‐specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory‐based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso‐level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks.     

GOVERNMENT SPENDING COMPOSITION,TECHNICAL CHANGE,AND WAGE INEQUALITY

In this paper we argue that government spending played a significant role in stimulating the wave of innovation that hit the U.S. economy in the late 1970s and in the 1980s, as well as the simultaneous increase in inequality and in education attainments. Since the late 1970s U.S. policymakers began targeting commercial innovations more directly and explicitly. We focus on the shift in the composition of public demand toward high‐tech goods, which, by increasing the market‐size of innovative firms, functions as a de facto innovation policy tool. We build a quality‐ladders non‐scale growth model with heterogeneous industries and endogenous supply of skills, and show that an increase in the technological content of public spending stimulates R&D, raises the wage of skilled workers, and, at the same time, stimulates human capital accumulation. A calibrated version of the model suggests that government policy explains between 12% and 15% of the observed increase in wage inequality in the period 1976–1991. (JEL: E62, J31, O33, O41)     

Unpacking the Mechanism by which Corporate Responsibility Impacts Stakeholder Relationships

Most research on corporate responsibility (CR) has investigated CR from the perspective of organizations, often focusing on how organizations define, manage and implement CR to gain benefits or competitive advantage. The benefits of CR for organizations are, however, often said to be achieved through increased support of stakeholders. Despite this, limited attention has been given to understanding CR from the perspective of stakeholders and, in particular, the mechanism by which CR drives stakeholder support. This study addresses this deficit. Building on advances in the application of psychological theories to the field of management, the research develops and empirically tests a theoretical model of how CR‐related experiences and beliefs drive stakeholder trust and positive intent. The research is conducted with customers (n = 708) and employees (n = 359) of a service organization in the UK that introduced a range of CR‐related activities into their business. The findings contribute to literature by empirically demonstrating (a) the impact of CR‐related experiences on the development of beliefs about, and trust towards, the organization; (b) the importance of ‘others‐related’ CR experiences even in the presence of ‘self‐related’ CR experiences; and (c) the role of beliefs as partial mediators in how experiences of CR, both ‘self‐related’ and ‘others‐related’, translate into trust and positive intent.     

Strongly Consistent Self‐Confirming Equilibrium

Fudenberg and Levine (1993a) introduced the notion of self‐confirming equilibrium, which is generally less restrictive than Nash equilibrium. Fudenberg and Levine also defined a concept of consistency, and claimed in their Theorem 4 that with consistency and other conditions on beliefs, a self‐confirming equilibrium has a Nash equilibrium outcome. We provide a counterexample that disproves Theorem 4 and prove an alternative by replacing consistency with a more restrictive concept, which we call strong consistency. In games with observed deviators, self‐confirming equilibria are strongly consistent self‐confirming equilibria. Hence, our alternative theorem ensures that despite the counterexample, the corollary of Theorem 4 is still valid.     

Optimal Capital Taxation,Labour Unions,and the Hold‐Up Problem

This document examines optimal capital taxation with wage‐setting labour unions when the government taxes consumption, labour, and capital. The results are as follows. If unions can commit themselves to particular wages for a long period, then there is no hold‐up problem. Otherwise, the hold‐up problem creates a positive link from capital accumulation to the wage. The optimal labour subsidy is positive and greater in the presence than in the absence of the hold‐up problem. The optimal capital subsidy is zero in the absence, but positive in the presence of the hold‐up problem.     

中国外商直接投资产业政策测量和有效性研究:1979~2003

本文以我国正式颁布的1987、1995、1997和2002年4次外资产业政策及其投资目录为研究对象,通过将投资目录按照标准的2位数产业代码进行归类,并对各种政策类别赋予权重,以此测量外资产业政策指数,在这基础上,再对外资产业政策的有效性进行研究。结果表明:在产业开放趋势上,我国对外资产业开放程度越来越大。在产业开放导向上,这4次外资产业政策表现出了一致性,集中反映了我国的引资目的,而且,在产业开放效果上,对于各种不同的产业分组,以及对于港澳台企业和外国企业,外资产业政策都能够有效地引导外资的产业流向。     

A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area

Coastal cities around the world have experienced large costs from major flooding events in recent years. Climate change is predicted to bring an increased likelihood of flooding due to sea level rise and more frequent severe storms. In order to plan future development and adaptation, cities must know the magnitude of losses associated with these events, and how they can be reduced. Often losses are calculated from insurance claims or surveying flood victims. However, this largely neglects the loss due to the disruption of economic activity. We use a forward‐looking dynamic computable general equilibrium model to study how a local economy responds to a flood, focusing on the subsequent recovery/reconstruction. Initial damage is modeled as a shock to the capital stock and recovery requires rebuilding that stock. We apply the model to Vancouver, British Columbia by considering a flood scenario causing total capital damage of $14.6 billion spread across five municipalities. GDP loss relative to a no‐flood scenario is relatively long‐lasting. It is 2.0% ($2.2 billion) in the first year after the flood, 1.7% ($1.9 billion) in the second year, and 1.2% ($1.4 billion) in the fifth year.