控制出来的"三大"人口高峰及相关学术悖论

文章运用人口理论解析了出生人口高峰与"三大"人口高峰中的"高峰"的概念区别,论证了21世纪中国"三大"人口高峰的相继到来是实施计划生育后生育水平降至低生育水平并持续稳定的结果.同时指出,劳动年龄人口"黄金时代"、"人口生物老化"、老龄化中的"两堵墙"论等均是学术上的悖论.     

出生人口性别比周期性波动研究——兼论中国出生人口性别比的变化趋势

在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。     

对我国出生性别比失衡人口规模的判断

中国人口经历了长达1/4世纪的出生性别比偏高的过程,其结果是男女性人口数量的严重失衡。现有统计资料难以准确反映男女失衡的规模,间接估算,1980~2006年出生性别比偏高的出生队列累计,男性比女性"多出生"3331万人,其中"应该多出生"1846万人,"偏高多出生"1485万人;2006年0~26岁存活人口中,男性比女性多出3402万人,其中"应该多出"1965万人,"偏高多出"1437万人。     

民族地区出生人口性别比状况分析及对策研究

本文以"四普"、"五普"数据为基础,结合近年来湘西州出生人口性别比调查数据,对湘西州少数民族人口出生性别比状况进行分析,提出治理民族地区出生人口性别比失衡的对策,为民族地区人口与经济社会的和谐发展做出思考。     

出生人口性别比失调与从严控制人口中的误导与失误

中国人口控制走过的弯路与21年的出生人口性别比失调,暴露出人口研究与决策中的一些问题。文章分析了这些问题的产生原因及其造成的后果,试图澄清在人口控制与出生性别比问题上的"是是非非"。     

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响

外来人口对中国城市地区出生性别比的影响是近年来学术界争论的焦点问题之一。利用2000年人口普查数据,通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和城市外来人口三个人口群体在出生性别比上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,考察20世纪90年代以来中国城市地区异常偏高的出生性别比是否由外来人口造成?结果表明,城市外来人口生育的性别偏好与农村本地人口和城市本地人口相比没有显著差异,都存在强烈的生男意愿。20世纪90年代以来中国生育水平迅速下降的同时,出生性别比出现了不分城乡的普遍升高和偏高,城市出生性别比偏高,既有外来人口的作用,也有本地人口的作用,外来人口并不是造成中国城市地区出生性别比偏高的唯一或主要的原因。     

浅析福建省出生人口性别比偏高的原因及治理对策

岀生人口性别比失衡的问题,已成为我国人口发展的重要问题,也是影响我国人口安全的重大隐患。本文试图通过对福建省出生人口性别比偏高的原因解析,为找到符合本地区情况的、有效的解决方法提供依据。福建省出生人口性别比的特征统计数据显示:2000年"五普"以前,福建省出生人口性别比与全国出     

中国人口生育意愿与男孩偏好研究

本文基于"四川省促进出生人口性别结构平衡问卷"的调查数据对育龄人群的生育意愿与男孩偏好关系进行实证检验。结果显示,所调查育龄群体的理想子女数约1.8个;男孩偏好发生概率具有明显的地区、人口特征,民族属性、家人想法、对生育政策知晓情况以及养老方式等变量对男孩偏好的影响显著。分析认为,这是个体所处环境对其影响作用所致。因此,政府应借助各类传播媒介,利用人际传播和大众传播等方式,加大对人口现状及生育政策等知识的宣传,扩大新型生育观念普及面,通过减弱男孩偏好逐步实现出生人口性别比结构平衡。除此之外,"一儿一女"的生育偏好普遍存在,全面二孩生育政策虽然满足了婚育家庭的生育需求,但有可能激发一孩是女孩的家庭的男孩偏好,打击"两非"仍是未来人口工作重点。     

台湾出生性别比的状况分析和对策研究

通过梳理有关台湾的人口资料,首先发现台湾出生性别比的发展呈现出总体偏高的趋势,其产生的原因是多种因素共同作用的结果。其次对台湾治理出生性别比偏高的直接和间接措施进行分析,直接措施是加大对非法性别鉴定的处罚,间接措施是消除不利文化的影响,营造促进妇女发展的社会环境。这些措施最终达到了＂标本兼治＂的目的。最后借鉴台湾治理出生性别比问题的经验和教训,为治理中国出生性别比偏高的问题提供相关对策。     

基于出生队列的中国人口性别结构特征分析

一个国家的人口性别结构主要由出生人口性别比、死亡人口性别比、国际迁移人口性别比共同决定。中国并非移民国家,人口性别比结构主要由出生人口性别比和死亡人口性别比共同决定。本文利用各年普查数据进行估算和预测,构建连续的出生队列并以此数据对我国人口性别结构进行分析。研究认为中国人口性别比长期持续偏高,而在我国的生育文化特征下女性人口在低龄组更容易被瞒报,所以统计数据的瞒报、漏报在一定程度上夸大了低龄组人口性别比偏高的程度,但不能把瞒报、漏报认定为性别比偏高的主因。根据生物学一般规律,在同等客观条件下男性的死亡概率在任何年龄均高于女性,总体上同一出生队列的人口从出生到进入婚龄,男性死亡人口规模大于女性,所以婚龄人口性别比在没有国际人口迁移影响的前提下必然要小于出生人口性别比。低年龄组死亡人口性别比对于婚龄人口性别比具有重要影响,但由于科技进步和医疗水平的提高,死亡率不断降低,死亡人口性别比不会给婚龄人口性别比带来决定性的影响,不会改变出生人口性别比偏高会导致婚龄人口性别比偏高的基本事实。通过对2020年婚龄人口相应出生队列的分析,认为无论采用哪种数据来源和方法计算,持续偏高的出生人口性别比必然会导致婚龄人口性别比失衡,进而导致一系列的社会、经济以及文化问题。     

Missing Baby Girls:My Views

OneofthenotablefactsinChina'spopulationdevelopmentsincethe1980s,istherapidlyrisingsexratioatbirth,whichhasarousedwideconcernindemographiccirclesinChinaandabroad.AsamplingsurveyconductedbytheStateStatisticalBureauin1995confirmedthattheproblemofunbalancedsexratiohadactuallybecomemoreserious,risingfrom111.3in1990to115.6in1995(ZhangWeimin,1997).ThisphenomenonpromptedWesternscholarstoexclaimthatChinesebabygirlshadbeen"missingbyalargenumber".Itisgenerallybelievedthat,fundamentally,thegenderimbal…     

Anticipation of Retirement Among Baby Boomers

ABSTRACT

A total of 32 interviews were conducted with women in academia who were born between 1946 and 1964. Twenty-one of these interviews were completed with academic women in the United States. and eleven with academic women in New Zealand. The data were analyzed to determine what these “baby boomers” anticipate for their retirement as well as their concerns about facing retirement. Cohort and cross-cultural comparisons were made. The authors identified common themes in the interviews. These included rejection of the traditional definition of retirement, anticipated age at retirement determined by personal needs rather than age-graded societal norms, retirement projected to be an active period involving a mix of work and leisure activities, and major concerns, about health and health care, the availability of entitlements and finances. The findings from this study indicate baby boomers are forging a new path for retirement. Further research investigating the transition for women of the baby boom generation from worker to retiree may open windows into the future of retirement for women.     

Baby boomlet for older mothers?

In recent years, a number of celebrities have begun childbearing after age 35. The phenomena of older first-time mothers has received a great deal of attention in the popular press. Are these celebrities indicative of a national trend? Does the increase in fertility portend a reversal of the declines in fertility which have been occurring since the baby boom? The present paper uses central and cumulative birth rates for cohorts of American white women born between 1882 and 1953 to investigate childbearing between ages 35 and 50. While there has been a noticeable upsurge in first birth rates for cohorts in their mid to late 30s in recent years, overall central birth rates for women in their 30s are among the lowest on record, with cumulative birth rates at record low levels. A major reason for this is that these women are having relatively few third and higher order births. These cohorts will need to have a relatively high proportion of births in their older years of childbearing in order to reach replacement level. However, attaining replacement level is unlikely because such a high proportion of women have remained childless at ages 35–40 and a relatively low proportion are having three or more children.     

To stay or to go? Postretirement housing choices of single Baby Boomer women

Single women of the Baby Boomer generation are often financially disadvantaged in the retirement planning process due to their lower accumulated savings compared to male retirees. This disadvantage impacts significant consumption decisions such as postretirement housing choices. This study uses the theory of planned behavior to examine how certainty in intentions influences preparing and planning for postretirement housing. A typology of single Baby Boomer women is developed based on their financial, demographic, and psychological circumstances. Each segment likely requires different informational strategies and financial services to foster proactive planning for retirement. Significant implications exist for social policy and the financial services sector.     

The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know

This study analyzes the timing, magnitude, and volume of the mid‐twentieth century baby boom in European and non‐European Western countries. The baby boom is found to have been especially strong in the non‐European countries, fairly strong in some European countries, and quite weak in others. While the boom has often been linked with postwar economic growth and the recuperation of births postponed during the Depression era, we argue that this is only a limited part of the story. In most cases the recovery of the birth rate started well before the end of World War II, a fact not accounted for by existing theories. We investigate the roles played by the recovery of period as well as cohort fertility, the underlying marriage boom, and the recovery of marital fertility. We identify major puzzles for future research, including the reasons for strongly declining ages at marriage and the role played by contraceptive failure in the rise of high‐parity births.     

Power Outages,Power Externalities,and Baby Booms

Determining whether power outages have significant fertility effects is an important policy question in developing countries, where blackouts are common and modern forms of family planning are scarce. Using birth records from Zanzibar, this study shows that a month-long blackout in 2008 caused a significant increase in the number of births 8 to 10 months later. The increase was similar across villages that had electricity, regardless of the level of electrification; villages with no electricity connections saw no changes in birth numbers. The large fertility increase in communities with very low levels of electricity suggests that the outage affected the fertility of households not connected to the grid through some spillover effect. Whether the baby boom is likely to translate to a permanent increase in the population remains unclear, but this article highlights an important hidden consequence of power instability in developing countries. It also suggests that electricity imposes significant externality effects on rural populations that have little exposure to it.     

Stillbirth in Australia 2: Working together to reduce stillbirth in Australia: The Safer Baby Bundle initiative

The rate of late gestation stillbirth in Australia is unacceptably high. Up to one third of stillbirths are preventable, particularly beyond 28 weeks’ gestation. The aim of this second paper in the Stillbirth in Australia series is to highlight one key national initiative, the Safer Baby Bundle (SBB), which has been led by the Centre of Research Excellence in Stillbirth in partnership with state health departments. Addressing commonly identified evidence practice gaps, the SBB contains five elements that, when implemented together, should result in better outcomes than if performed individually. This paper describes the development of the SBB, what the initiative aims to achieve, and progress to date. By collaborating with Departments of Health and other partners to amplify uptake of the SBB, we anticipate a reduction of at least 20% in Australia’s stillbirth rate after 28 weeks’ gestation is achievable.