SDP vs. LP Relaxations for the Moment Approach in Some Performance Evaluation Problems

Abstract

Given a Markov process, we are interested in the numerical computation of the moments of the exit time from a bounded domain. We use a moment approach which, together with appropriate semidefinite positivity moment conditions, yields a sequence of semidefinite programs (or SDP relaxations), depending on the number of moments considered, that provide a sequence of nonincreasing (resp. nondecreasing) upper (resp. lower) bounds. The results are compared to the linear Hausdorff moment conditions approach considered for the LP relaxations in Helmes et al. [Helmes, K., Röhl, S., Stockbridge, R.H. Computing moments of the exit time distribution for Markov processes by linear programming. Oper. Res. 2001, 49, 516–530]. The SDP relaxations are shown to be more general and more precise than the LP relaxations.     

Specifying a Gaussian Markov Random Field by a Sparse Cholesky Triangle

ABSTRACT

This note discusses the approach of specifying a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) by the Cholesky triangle of the precision matrix. A such representation can be made extremely sparse using numerical techniques for incomplete sparse Cholesky factorization, and provide very computational efficient representation for simulating from the GMRF. However, we provide theoretical and empirical justification showing that the sparse Cholesky triangle representation is fragile when conditioning a GMRF on a subset of the variables or observed data, meaning that the computational cost increases.     

SMALL SAMPLE INFERENCE IN LOCATION SCALE MODELS WITH STUDENT(λ) ERRORS

ABSTRACT

A third order accurate approximation to the p value in testing either the location or scale parameter in a location scale model with Student(λ) errors is introduced. The third order approximation is developed via an asymptotic method, based on exponential models and the saddlepoint approximation. Techniques are presented for the numerical computation of all quantities required for the third order approximation. To compare the accuracy of various asymptotic methods a numerical example and simulation study are included. The numerical example and simulation study illustrate that the third order method presented leads to a more accurate p value approximation compared to first order methods in Student(λ) models with small samples.     

Numerical method for means of linear Hawkes processes

Abstract

Linear Hawkes processes are widely used in many fields and means are the basic and critical information of them. However, there is little research on linear Hawkes processes’ means. In this paper, we present a numerical method based on the Laplace transform and inverse Laplace transform for means of linear Hawkes processes. The advantage of this method is that whatever the kernel function is, we can always obtain the numerical solutions of means for a linear Hawkes process. In addition, this numerical method provides the basic information of linear Hawkes processes by means. As an application, the numerical method is applied in a WeChat network model.     

Testing the Equality of Multivariate Distributions Using the Bootstrap and Integrated Empirical Processes

We introduce some projected integrated empirical processes for testing the equality of two multivariate distributions. The bootstrap is used for determining the approximate critical values. We show that the bootstrap test is consistent. A number-theoretic method is used for efficient computation of the bootstrap critical values. Some simulation results are also given.     

Transient Analysis of Large Markov Models with Absorbing States Using Regenerative Randomization

ABSTRACT

In this article, we develop a new method, called regenerative randomization, for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models with absorbing states. The method has the same good properties as standard randomization: numerical stability, well-controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. The method has a benign behavior for large t and is significantly less costly than standard randomization for large enough models and large enough t. For a class of models, class C, including typical failure/repair reliability models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and repair in every state with failed components, stronger theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. A large example belonging to that class is used to illustrate the performance of the method and to show that it can indeed be much faster than standard randomization.     

Plug-in estimators for the mean value and variance functions in delayed renewal processes

Abstract

In this paper, we deal with the problem of estimating the delayed renewal and variance functions in delayed renewal processes. Two parametric plug-in estimators for these functions are proposed and their unbiasedness, asymptotic unbiasedness and consistency properties are investigated. The asymptotic normality of these estimators are established. Further, a method for the computation of the estimators is given. Finally, the performances of the estimators are evaluated for small sample sizes by a simulation study.     

Parametric bootstrap process capability index control charts for both mean and dispersion

Abstract

Non-normal processes are common in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to defining bootstrap process capability index (PCI) control charts to monitor the performance of in-control skew normal processes. We use a bootstrap method to calculate phase I control limits of the corresponding PCI control charts. The β-risk curves of the associated PCI control charts will be used to assess the performance of the PCI control charts. We use Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed PCI control charts. A numerical example to illustrate the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS FOR THE SUPERPOSITION OF TWO DEPENDENT NONHOMOGENEOUS POISSON PROCESSES

ABSTRACT

A Bayesian analysis for the superposition of two dependent nonhomogenous Poisson processes is studied by means of a bivariate Poisson distribution. This particular distribution presents a new likelihood function which takes into account the correlation between the two nonhomogenous Poisson processes. A numerical example using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with data augmentation is considered.     

Transient analysis of a finite source discrete-time queueing system using homogeneous Markov system with state size capacities (HMS/c)

Abstract

In this article, a finite source discrete-time queueing system is modeled as a discrete-time homogeneous Markov system with finite state size capacities (HMS/c) and transition priorities. This Markov system is comprised of three states. The first state of the HMS/c corresponds to the source and the second one to the state with the servers. The second state has a finite capacity which corresponds to the number of servers. The members of the system which can not enter the second state, due to its finite capacity, enter the third state which represents the system's queue. In order to examine the variability of the state sizes recursive formulae for their factorial and mixed factorial moments are derived in matrix form. As a consequence the probability mass function of each state size can be evaluated. Also the expected time in queue is computed by means of the interval transition probabilities. The theoretical results are illustrated by a numerical example.     

The Waiting Time Distribution of a Type k Customer in a Discrete-Time MMAP[K]/PH[K]/c (c = 1, 2) Queue Using QBDs

Abstract

This paper presents an improved method to calculate the delay distribution of a type k customer in a first-come-first-serve (FCFS) discrete-time queueing system with multiple types of customers, where each type has different service requirements, and c servers, with c = 1, 2 (the MMAP[K]/PH[K]/c queue). The first algorithms to compute this delay distribution, using the GI/M/1 paradigm, were presented by Van Houdt and Blondia [Van Houdt, B.; Blondia, C. The delay distribution of a type k customer in a first come first served MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queue. J. Appl. Probab. 2002, 39 (1), 213–222; The waiting time distribution of a type k customer in a FCFS MMAP[K]/PH[K]/2 queue. Technical Report; 2002]. The two most limiting properties of these algorithms are: (i) the computation of the rate matrix R related to the GI/M/1 type Markov chain, (ii) the amount of memory needed to store the transition matrices A _l and B _l . In this paper we demonstrate that each of the three GI/M/1 type Markov chains used to develop the algorithms in the above articles can be reduced to a QBD with a block size which is only marginally larger than that of its corresponding GI/M/1 type Markov chain. As a result, the two major limiting factors of each of these algorithms are drastically reduced to computing the G matrix of the QBD and storing the 6 matrices that characterize the QBD. Moreover, these algorithms are easier to implement, especially for the system with c = 2 servers. We also include some numerical examples that further demonstrate the reduction in computational resources.     

A New Policy Evaluation Algorithm for Markov Decision Processes with Quasi Birth-Death Structure

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a new algorithm for policy evaluation for Markov decision processes (MDP) that possess a quasi birth-death structure. The proposed algorithm is based on matrix analytic methods which use probabilistic concepts associated with restricting the underlying Markov process to certain state subsets. A telecommunications application example shows that the method offers significant computational reduction compared to a standard MDP policy evaluation approach.     

Stress testing correlation matrix: a maximum empirical likelihood approach

ABSTRACT

Stress testing correlation matrix is a challenging exercise for portfolio risk management. Most existing methods directly modify the estimated correlation matrix to satisfy stress conditions while maintaining positive semidefiniteness. The focus lies on technical optimization issues but the resultant stressed correlation matrices usually lack statistical interpretations. In this article, we suggest a novel approach using Empirical Likelihood method to modify the probability weights of sample observations to construct a stressed correlation matrix. The resultant correlations correspond to a stress scenario that is nearest to the observed scenario in a Kullback–Leibler divergence sense. Besides providing a clearer statistical interpretation, the proposed method is non-parametric in distribution, simple in computation and free from subjective tunings. We illustrate the method through an application to a portfolio of international assets.     

A phase expansion for non-Markovian availability models with time-based aperiodic rejuvenation and checkpointing

Abstract

This paper presents a stochastic framework, consisting of stochastic reward net (SRN) for capturing the transient behaviors of the system and its related non-Markovian state transition diagram, to model an operational software system that undergoes aperiodic time-based rejuvenation and checkpointing schemes, and further to investigate whether there exists the optimal rejuvenation schedule that maximizes the system steady-state availability. A phase expansion approach is adopted to solve the non-Markovian availability models, which are actually neither the semi-Markov processes nor the Markov regenerative processes. Our numerical results show an appropriate rejuvenation trigger timing range, resulting in the positive improvement effect on the system availability of a database system, and that there exists the optimal rejuvenation trigger timing maximizing the system availability.     

A random weighting approach for posterior distributions

ABSTRACT

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but typically difficult. Therefore, some methods have been proposed to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic expansions of posterior distributions. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach, named a random weighting method, for scaled posterior distributions, and give an ideal convergence rate, o(n^{( ? 1/2)}), which serves as the theoretical guarantee for methods of numerical simulations.     

Parametric inference in a perturbed gamma degradation process

Abstract

We consider a degradation model which is the sum of two independent processes: an homogeneous gamma process and a Brownian motion. This model is called perturbed gamma process. Based on independent copies of the perturbed gamma process observed at irregular instants we propose to estimate the unknown parameters of the model using the moment method. Some general conditions allow to derive the asymptotic behavior of the estimators. We also show that these general conditions are fulfilled for some specific observation schemes. Finally, we illustrate our method by a numerical study and an application to a real data set.     

Evaluation of process capability in multivariate nonlinear profiles

ABSTRACT

Process capability indices measure the ability of a process to provide products that meet certain specifications. Few references deal with the capability of a process characterized by a functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables, which is called profile. Specifically, there is not any reference analysing the capability of processes characterized by multivariate nonlinear profiles. In this paper, we propose a method to measure the capability of these processes, based on principal components for multivariate functional data and the concept of functional depth. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. An example from the sugar production illustrates the applicability of this approach.     

Exact calculation of minimum sample size for estimating a Poisson parameter

Abstract

We develop an exact approach for the determination of the minimum sample size for estimating a Poisson parameter such that the pre-specified levels of relative precision and confidence are guaranteed. The exact computation is made possible by reducing infinitely many evaluations of coverage probability to finitely many evaluations. The theory for supporting such a reduction is that the minimum of coverage probability with respect to the parameter in an interval is attained at a discrete set of finitely many elements. Computational mechanisms have been developed to further reduce the computational complexity. An explicit bound for the minimum sample size is established.     

Modeling Unequally Spaced Bivariate Growth Curve Data Using a Kalman Filter Approach

ABSTRACT

In many clinical studies, patients are followed over time with their responses measured longitudinally. Using mixed model theory, one can characterize these data using a wide array of across subject models. A state-space representation of the mixed effects model and use of the Kalman filter allows one to have great flexibility in choosing the within error correlation structure even in the presence of missing or unequally spaced observations. Furthermore, using the state-space approach, one can avoid inverting large matrices resulting in efficient computation. The approach also allows one to make detailed inference about the error correlation structure. We consider a bivariate situation where the longitudinal responses are unequally spaced and assume that the within subject errors follows a continuous first-order autoregressive (CAR(1)) structure. Since a large number of nonlinear parameters need to be estimated, the modeling strategy and numerical techniques are critical in the process. We developed both a Visual Fortran^® and a SAS^® program for modeling such data. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the robustness of the model assumptions. We also use data from a psychiatric study to demonstrate our model fitting procedure.     

On minimum Lp-distance estimation for inhomogeneous Poisson processes

ABSTRACT

We consider the problem of parameter estimation by the observations of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We suppose that the intensity function of these processes is a smooth function of the unknown parameter and as a method of estimation we take the minimum distance approach. We are interested by the behavior of estimators in non Hilbertian situation and we define the minimum distance estimation (MDE) with the help of the L^p metrics. We show that (under regularity conditions) the MDE is consistent and we describe its limit distribution.