Recent progresses in outcome-dependent sampling with failure time data

An outcome-dependent sampling (ODS) design is a retrospective sampling scheme where one observes the primary exposure variables with a probability that depends on the observed value of the outcome variable. When the outcome of interest is failure time, the observed data are often censored. By allowing the selection of the supplemental samples depends on whether the event of interest happens or not and oversampling subjects from the most informative regions, ODS design for the time-to-event data can reduce the cost of the study and improve the efficiency. We review recent progresses and advances in research on ODS designs with failure time data. This includes researches on ODS related designs like case–cohort design, generalized case–cohort design, stratified case–cohort design, general failure-time ODS design, length-biased sampling design and interval sampling design.     

Duration analysis in longitudinal studies with intermittent observation times and losses to followup

We consider the analysis of spell durations observed in event history studies where members of the study panel are seen intermittently. Challenges for analysis arise because losses to followup are frequently related to previous event history, and spells typically overlap more than one observation period. We provide methods of estimation based on inverse probability of censoring weighting for parametric and semiparametric Cox regression models. Selection of panel members through a complex survey design is also addressed, and the methods are illustrated in an analysis of jobless spell durations based on data from the Statistics Canada Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 1–21; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Robust Lagrange multiplier test for detecting ARCH/GARCH effect using permutation and bootstrap

The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is one of the principal tools to detect ARCH and GARCH effects in financial data analysis. However, when the underlying data are non‐normal, which is often the case in practice, the asymptotic LM test, based on the χ²‐approximation of critical values, is known to perform poorly, particularly for small and moderate sample sizes. In this paper we propose to employ two re‐sampling techniques to find critical values of the LM test, namely permutation and bootstrap. We derive the properties of exactness and asymptotically correctness for the permutation and bootstrap LM tests, respectively. Our numerical studies indicate that the proposed re‐sampled algorithms significantly improve size and power of the LM test in both skewed and heavy‐tailed processes. We also illustrate our new approaches with an application to the analysis of the Euro/USD currency exchange rates and the German stock index. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 405–426; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Robust designs for misspecified logistic models

We develop criteria that generate robust designs and use such criteria for the construction of designs that insure against possible misspecifications in logistic regression models. The design criteria we propose are different from the classical in that we do not focus on sampling error alone. Instead we use design criteria that account as well for error due to bias engendered by the model misspecification. Our robust designs optimize the average of a function of the sampling error and bias error over a specified misspecification neighbourhood. Examples of robust designs for logistic models are presented, including a case study implementing the methodologies using beetle mortality data.     

A comparison of conditional Poisson sampling versus unequal probability sampling with replacement

The variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator for a fixed size Conditional Poisson sampling scheme without replacement and with unequal inclusion probabilities is compared to the variance of the Hansen–Hurwitz estimator for a sampling scheme with replacement. We show, using a theorem by Gabler, that the sampling design without replacement is more efficient than the sampling design with replacement.     

Three-stage and accelerated sequential point estimation of the normal mean using LINEX loss function

Consider a normal population with unknown mean μ and unknown variance σ². We estimate μ under an asymmetric LINEX loss function such that the associated risk is bounded from above by a known quantity w. This necessitates the use of a random number (N) of observations. Under a fairly broad set of assumptions on N, we derive the asymptotic second-order expansion of the associated risk function. Some examples have been included involving accelerated sequential and three-stage sampling techniques. Performance comparisons of these procedures are considered using a Monte-Carlo study.     

Combining multi‐observer information in partially rank‐ordered judgment post‐stratified and ranked set samples

This paper develops two sampling designs to create artificially stratified samples. These designs use a small set of experimental units to determine their relative ranks without measurement. In each set, the units are ranked by all available observers (rankers), with ties whenever the units cannot be ranked with high confidence. The rankings from all the observers are then combined in a meaningful way to create a single weight measure. This weight measure is used to create judgment strata in both designs. The first design constructs the strata through judgment post‐stratification after the data has been collected. The second design creates the strata before any measurements are made on the experimental units. The paper constructs estimators and confidence intervals, and develops testing procedures for the mean and median of the underlying distribution based on these sampling designs. We show that the proposed sampling designs provide a substantial improvement over their competitor designs in the literature. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 304–324; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Testing for intercept‐scale switch in linear autoregression

Autoregressive models with switching regime are a frequently used class of nonlinear time series models, which are popular in finance, engineering, and other fields. We consider linear switching autoregressions in which the intercept and variance possibly switch simultaneously, while the autoregressive parameters are structural and hence the same in all states, and we propose quasi‐likelihood‐based tests for a regime switch in this class of models. Our motivation is from financial time series, where one expects states with high volatility and low mean together with states with low volatility and higher mean. We investigate the performance of our tests in a simulation study, and give an application to a series of IBM monthly stock returns. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 427–446; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Pair‐copula constructions for non‐Gaussian DAG models

We propose a new type of multivariate statistical model that permits non‐Gaussian distributions as well as the inclusion of conditional independence assumptions specified by a directed acyclic graph. These models feature a specific factorisation of the likelihood that is based on pair‐copula constructions and hence involves only univariate distributions and bivariate copulas, of which some may be conditional. We demonstrate maximum‐likelihood estimation of the parameters of such models and compare them to various competing models from the literature. A simulation study investigates the effects of model misspecification and highlights the need for non‐Gaussian conditional independence models. The proposed methods are finally applied to modeling financial return data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 86–109; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

A resampling approach to estimate variance components of multilevel models

In a multilevel model for complex survey data, the weight‐inflated estimators of variance components can be biased. We propose a resampling method to correct this bias. The performance of the bias corrected estimators is studied through simulations using populations generated from a simple random effects model. The simulations show that, without lowering the precision, the proposed procedure can reduce the bias of the estimators, especially for designs that are both informative and have small cluster sizes. Application of these resampling procedures to data from an artificial workplace survey provides further evidence for the empirical value of this method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 150–171; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Fully efficient estimation of coefficients of correlation in the presence of imputed survey data

Marginal imputation, that consists of imputing items separately, generally leads to biased estimators of bivariate parameters such as finite population coefficients of correlation. To overcome this problem, two main approaches have been considered in the literature: the first consists of using customary imputation methods such as random hot‐deck imputation and adjusting for the bias at the estimation stage. This approach was studied in Skinner & Rao 2002 . In this paper, we extend the results of Skinner & Rao 2002 to the case of arbitrary sampling designs and three variants of random hot‐deck imputation. The second approach consists of using an imputation method, which preserves the relationship between variables. Shao & Wang 2002 proposed a joint random regression imputation procedure that succeeds in preserving the relationships between two study variables. One drawback of the Shao–Wang procedure is that it suffers from an additional variability (called the imputation variance) due to the random selection of residuals, resulting in potentially inefficient estimators. Following Chauvet, Deville, & Haziza 2011 , we propose a fully efficient version of the Shao–Wang procedure that preserves the relationship between two study variables, while virtually eliminating the imputation variance. Results of a simulation study support our findings. An application using data from the Workplace and Employees Survey is also presented. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 124–149; 2012 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Imputation for statistical inference with coarse data

Coarse data is a general type of incomplete data that includes grouped data, censored data, and missing data. The likelihood‐based estimation approach with coarse data is challenging because the likelihood function is in integral form. The Monte Carlo EM algorithm of Wei & Tanner [Wei & Tanner (1990). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 699–704] is adapted to compute the maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of coarse data. Stochastic coarse data is also covered and the computation can be implemented using the parametric fractional imputation method proposed by Kim [Kim (2011). Biometrika, 98, 119–132]. Results from a limited simulation study are presented. The proposed method is also applied to the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 604–618; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Goodness‐of‐fit testing based on a weighted bootstrap: A fast large‐sample alternative to the parametric bootstrap

The process comparing the empirical cumulative distribution function of the sample with a parametric estimate of the cumulative distribution function is known as the empirical process with estimated parameters and has been extensively employed in the literature for goodness‐of‐fit testing. The simplest way to carry out such goodness‐of‐fit tests, especially in a multivariate setting, is to use a parametric bootstrap. Although very easy to implement, the parametric bootstrap can become very computationally expensive as the sample size, the number of parameters, or the dimension of the data increase. An alternative resampling technique based on a fast weighted bootstrap is proposed in this paper, and is studied both theoretically and empirically. The outcome of this work is a generic and computationally efficient multiplier goodness‐of‐fit procedure that can be used as a large‐sample alternative to the parametric bootstrap. In order to approximately determine how large the sample size needs to be for the parametric and weighted bootstraps to have roughly equivalent powers, extensive Monte Carlo experiments are carried out in dimension one, two and three, and for models containing up to nine parameters. The computational gains resulting from the use of the proposed multiplier goodness‐of‐fit procedure are illustrated on trivariate financial data. A by‐product of this work is a fast large‐sample goodness‐of‐fit procedure for the bivariate and trivariate t distribution whose degrees of freedom are fixed. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 480–500; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Truncated regular vines in high dimensions with application to financial data

Using only bivariate copulas as building blocks, regular vine copulas constitute a flexible class of high‐dimensional dependency models. However, the flexibility comes along with an exponentially increasing complexity in larger dimensions. In order to counteract this problem, we propose using statistical model selection techniques to either truncate or simplify a regular vine copula. As a special case, we consider the simplification of a canonical vine copula using a multivariate copula as previously treated by Heinen & Valdesogo ( 2009 ) and Valdesogo ( 2009 ). We validate the proposed approaches by extensive simulation studies and use them to investigate a 19‐dimensional financial data set of Norwegian and international market variables. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 68–85; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Optimal design for classification of functional data

We study the design problem for the optimal classification of functional data. The goal is to select sampling time points so that functional data observed at these time points can be classified accurately. We propose optimal designs that are applicable to either dense or sparse functional data. Using linear discriminant analysis, we formulate our design objectives as explicit functions of the sampling points. We study the theoretical properties of the proposed design objectives and provide a practical implementation. The performance of the proposed design is evaluated through simulations and real data applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 285–307; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Minimum phi-divergence estimators for loglinear models with linear constraints and multinomial sampling

In this paper the family ofφ-divergence estimators for loglinear models with linear constraints and multinomial sampling is studied. This family is an extension of the maximum likelihood estimator studied by Haber and Brown (1986). A simulation study is presented and some alternative estimators to the maximum likelihood are obtained. This work was parcially supported by Grant DGES PB2003-892     

Estimating the distribution function using k-tuple ranked set samples

The basic assumption underlying the concept of ranked set sampling is that actual measurement of units is expensive, whereas ranking is cheap. This may not be true in reality in certain cases where ranking may be moderately expensive. In such situations, based on total cost considerations, k-tuple ranked set sampling is known to be a viable alternative, where one selects k units (instead of one) from each ranked set. In this article, we consider estimation of the distribution function based on k-tuple ranked set samples when the cost of selecting and ranking units is not ignorable. We investigate estimation both in the balanced and unbalanced data case. Properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of ranking error are also investigated. Results of simulation studies as well as an application to a real data set are presented to illustrate some of the theoretical findings.     

An adaptive sampling scheme guided by BART—with an application to predict processor performance

The evaluation of new processor designs is an important issue in electrical and computer engineering. Architects use simulations to evaluate designs and to understand trade‐offs and interactions among design parameters. However, due to the lengthy simulation time and limited resources, it is often practically impossible to simulate a full factorial design space. Effective sampling methods and predictive models are required. In this paper, the authors propose an automated performance predictive approach which employs an adaptive sampling scheme that interactively works with the predictive model to select samples for simulation. These samples are then used to build Bayesian additive regression trees, which in turn are used to predict the whole design space. Both real data analysis and simulation studies show that the method is effective in that, though sampling at very few design points, it generates highly accurate predictions on the unsampled points. Furthermore, the proposed model provides quantitative interpretation tools with which investigators can efficiently tune design parameters in order to improve processor performance. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 136–152; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Sequential design for nonparametric inference

The performance of nonparametric function estimates often depends on the choice of design points. Based on the mean integrated squared error criterion, we propose a sequential design procedure that updates the model knowledge and optimal design density sequentially. The methodology is developed under a general framework covering a wide range of nonparametric inference problems, such as conditional mean and variance functions, the conditional distribution function, the conditional quantile function in quantile regression, functional coefficients in varying coefficient models and semiparametric inferences. Based on our empirical studies, nonparametric inference based on the proposed sequential design is more efficient than the uniform design and its performance is close to the true but unknown optimal design. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 362–377; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Nonparametric hierarchical Bayes analysis of binomial data via Bernstein polynomial priors

For binomial data analysis, many methods based on empirical Bayes interpretations have been developed, in which a variance‐stabilizing transformation and a normality assumption are usually required. To achieve the greatest model flexibility, we conduct nonparametric Bayesian inference for binomial data and employ a special nonparametric Bayesian prior—the Bernstein–Dirichlet process (BDP)—in the hierarchical Bayes model for the data. The BDP is a special Dirichlet process (DP) mixture based on beta distributions, and the posterior distribution resulting from it has a smooth density defined on [0, 1]. We examine two Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures for simulating from the resulting posterior distribution, and compare their convergence rates and computational efficiency. In contrast to existing results for posterior consistency based on direct observations, the posterior consistency of the BDP, given indirect binomial data, is established. We study shrinkage effects and the robustness of the BDP‐based posterior estimators in comparison with several other empirical and hierarchical Bayes estimators, and we illustrate through examples that the BDP‐based nonparametric Bayesian estimate is more robust to the sample variation and tends to have a smaller estimation error than those based on the DP prior. In certain settings, the new estimator can also beat Stein's estimator, Efron and Morris's limited‐translation estimator, and many other existing empirical Bayes estimators. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 328–344; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada