Heterogeneity in the rise and decline of city-level homicide rates, 1976-2005: A latent trajectory analysis

This study applies latent trajectory methods to the analysis of temporal changes in homicide rates among large US cities across recent decades. Specifically, annual homicide rates for 157 large US cities are analyzed for the 30 years from 1976 to 2005. We address the fundamental questions: Did all of cities experience similar levels and patterns of rise and decline in homicide rates over these three decades? Or is there hidden or unobserved heterogeneity with respect to these temporal patterns, thus leading to the identification of more homogeneous groupings of the cities? And if latent homogeneous groupings surface, is membership due to specific structural characteristics found within those cities? Evidence is found for the existence of four latent homicide rate trajectories. After identifying and classifying the cities into these four groups, multivariate statistical techniques are used to determine which social and economic characteristics are significant predictors of these distinct homicide trends. Criminal justice measures are also included as controls. It is found that larger cities located in the South with higher levels of resource deprivation/concentrated poverty, higher income inequality, higher percentages of the adult male population that are divorced, higher unemployment rates, higher percentages of youth, higher percentages of the population who are Hispanic and higher numbers of police per capita are more likely to be in a higher than a lower homicide trajectory group. Higher percentages of the population enrolled in colleges and universities and locations in states with higher incarceration rates are characteristics of cities associated with membership in a lower homicide trajectory group.     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

Social welfare support and homicide: Longitudinal analyses of European countries from 1994 to 2010

The purpose of this research is to explore the extent to which retrenchment in welfare support is related to homicide trends across European countries between 1994 and 2010. Using a longitudinal decomposition design that allows for stronger causal inferences compared to typical cross-sectional designs, we examine these potential linkages between social support spending and homicide with data collected from a heterogeneous sample of European nations, including twenty Western nations and nine less frequently analyzed East-Central nations, during recent years in which European nations generally witnessed substantial changes in homicide rates as well as both economic prosperity and fiscal crisis. Results suggest that even incremental, short-term changes in welfare support spending are associated with short-term reductions in homicide—specifically, impacting homicide rates within two to three years for this sample of European nations.     

Immigration and violence: The offsetting effects of immigrant concentration on Latino violence

Despite longstanding interest in the effects of immigration on American society, there are few studies that examine the relationship between immigration and crime. Drawing from social disorganization theory and community resource/social capital perspectives, this study examines the effects of Latino immigration on Latino violence. Data on violence (i.e., homicide, robbery, and Violent Index) and the structural conditions of Latino populations are drawn from the California Arrest Data (CAL), New York State Arrest Data (NYSAD), and U.S. Census data for approximately 400 census places during the 1999–2001 period. Findings suggest that immigrant concentration has no direct effect on Latino homicide or Violent Index rates but may reduce Latino robbery. Immigration also appears to have multiple, offsetting indirect effects on Latino violence that work through social disorganization and community resource measures. These results suggest that (1) immigrant concentration does not contribute to Latino violence and may even reduce some forms of violence, (2) immigration simultaneously stabilizes and destabilizes structural conditions in Latino populations, and (3) it is useful to examine both the direct and indirect effects of immigration on crime.     

Racial similarity in the relationship between poverty and homicide rates: Comparing retransformed coefficients

Criminologists have shown great interest in comparing the strength of the relationship between poverty and violent crime for whites and blacks. The present paper argues that the standard approach of comparing race-specific coefficients from logarithmic metric OLS and/or Poisson-based regressions has led to erroneous conclusions in this literature. Unlike researchers in other disciplines (especially economics), criminologists have largely ignored the need to “retransform” coefficients to their linear-effect representations before making comparisons between groups. The current study illustrates the importance of this methodological issue for the substantive question of whether poverty’s relationship to homicide is racially invariant (N = 134 cities). Similar to previous studies, initial results indicated that poverty’s effect on the natural logarithm of the homicide rate was dramatically stronger for whites than blacks (nearly 300% stronger for whites). However, after applying a broadly useful retransformation formula, poverty’s effect on the homicide rate actually appeared somewhat stronger for blacks. Further application of bootstrap simulations necessary to calculate the standard error of the difference in coefficients suggested that this racial discrepancy was not statistically significant.     

Losing ground,losing sleep: Local economic conditions,economic vulnerability,and sleep

Medical research shows that healthy sleep has benefits for human wellbeing. We contribute to the emerging social-epidemiological literature on the social determinants of sleep by considering how living in an area with poor economic circumstances can result in sleep loss through financial worry, uncertainty and stress. We use multilevel regression models and nationally-representative data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (n = 9181) and find that individuals who live in areas with high unemployment rates or experience individual-level economic vulnerability sleep less than comparable individuals in areas with low unemployment rates, or who do not experience financial hardships. The negative association between local economic conditions and sleep duration is substantially stronger amongst economically vulnerable individuals. This highlights the importance of considering multiple levels in the analysis of health inequalities, as status and location can intersect to produce and reproduce disadvantage systems.     

Educational differences in health risks and illness over the life course: A test of cumulative disadvantage theory

This study tests the cumulative disadvantage hypothesis by examining the age-varying relationships between education, health risks, and disease onset and survival duration. Results based on 20 years of longitudinal data suggest that education is related to both the individual and accumulated number of behavioral, social, and economic health-risks, which in turn, are related to increasing educational differences in rates of disease incidence and survival. For hypertension, behavioral risks fully account for education’s negative effect on disease onset whereas educational differences in survival are best explained by the accumulation of social and economic risks. For heart attack, a combination of behavioral, social, and economic risks mediate the association between education and incidence, but neither the individual nor accumulated health-risks could account for education’s positive effect on surviving after a heart attack. Similar findings for diabetes and stroke are also discussed.     

Variations in age-specific homicide death rates: a cohort explanation for charges in the age distribution of homicide deaths

An age-period-cohort characteristic model previously used to explain age-period-specific rates of homicide arrests for those 15 to 49 from 1960 to 1995 is applied to measures of age-period-specific homicide deaths. The extension of this model to the examination of homicide victimization is significant because we are able to test the utility of the model across a longer time span (1930 to 1995) and a wider range of ages (10 to 79) and disaggregated by sex and race (Whites and non-Whites). Although the results indicate that past and recent shifts in age-period-specific rates of homicide deaths are associated with specific characteristics of cohorts, there are some important differences across race and sex groupings in the effects of these characteristics. The effects of the cohort variables examined in our model are independent of age and period, often substantively large, and last throughout the life course. The results are consistent with Durkheimian explanations of lethal violence, hypotheses from victimization theory, and basic tenets of cohort theory.     

Explaining discrepant findings in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses: An application to U.S. homicide rates

Cross-sectional studies often reach different conclusions regarding the association between key explanatory variables and outcomes than those of longitudinal approaches. This study considers possible explanations for discrepant findings using a decomposition approach with panel data on 404 U.S. counties for the period 1970–1999. The analysis establishes that there are important differences in the effects of independent variables on homicide rates across counties as opposed to within counties over time. Explanations offered for these discrepancies are that variables may have differing temporary (flow) and permanent (stock) influences on outcomes and possible omitted variable bias. The findings highlight the importance of distinguishing among possible stock and flow effects and are significant not only for the study of crime but also for other social phenomena.     

19世纪俄国社会史研究及其意义

19世纪是俄国资产阶级史学发展的重要时期,其中社会史研究引人注目.19世纪俄国资产阶级自由派史学家,面对俄国社会的急剧变化和各种矛盾的日益尖锐,从不同的立场观点出发,试图对造成各种矛盾的社会历史原因进行广泛而深入地分析,而这些研究的重要方面是围绕社会结构、经济形态、民族文化传统、日常生活方式、各个阶层的生活及心理状态等社会史方面进行的,形成了俄国传统史学的突出特征.19世纪俄国的社会史研究传统,对苏联和当代俄罗斯史学的发展都产生了重要影响.     

Predicting bias homicide across victim groups: A county-level analysis

Outside several notable exceptions, few studies have examined variations in bias crime occurrences across American communities, and how community-level factors may differentially shape violent and non-violent bias crimes across victim groups. Drawing from ecological theories of crime, this study asks, (1) what are the structural predictors of the likelihood of bias homicide occurrences? and (2) how do structural predictors differ across bias victim groups? To answer these questions, data on bias homicide are derived from the United States Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) for the years 1990 through 2014 and paired with socio- structural variables from the United States Census Bureau. Results are discussed relative to the goals of understanding where fatal bias crimes are more likely to occur as a means of informing law enforcement and policymakers interested in preventing and responding to this specific form of crime.     

Industrial organization,economic conditions,and the labor market success of young men: An overview and extension

The relationship between workplace organization and socioeconomic attainments of workers, although an issue of some currency in contemporary stratification research, is complex and as yet not well understood. In contrast to dual economic theory, this paper attempts to sort out the separate effects of various components of the social organization of production on job rewards by adopting an explicit multidimensional approach to the conceptualization and measurement of organizational structure. Moreover, various considerations suggest that these structural impacts vary with business cycle activity. Accordingly, one of the research aims is to examine the extent to which various dimensions of organizational structure serve to differentially insulate workers from wage stagnation as economic conditions deteriorate. Finally, because firms may devise different institutional responses to declining product demand, these structural effects on both wage rates and unemployment propensities are examined.     

Psychological ‘self–other overlap’ and support for slavery reparations

Neurobiological and social psychological studies suggest the existence of non-conscious ‘self–other overlap’ that can lead individuals to identify with other individuals or groups. This paper investigates whether this effect may help to explain support by some Whites for an otherwise unpopular policy on behalf of African Americans-slavery reparations. A representative telephone survey (n = 1200) serves as baseline of comparison for an online reaction time study with a non-representative sample (n = 1341) that measures ‘self–other overlap’ (interchangeably referred to as “implicit closeness” to Blacks). Partial proportional odds ordered logit analyses reveal implicit closeness to Blacks as the single most powerful predictor of support for reparations among White respondents. The magnitude of the absolute effect of implicit closeness exceeds that of traditional predictors such as racial resentment, ideology, and party identification. Methodological and political implications are discussed.     

Civic communities and urban violence

Civic communities have a spirit of entrepreneurialism, a locally invested population and an institutional structure fostering civic engagement. Prior research, mainly confined to studying rural communities and fairly large geographic areas, has demonstrated that civic communities have lower rates of violence. The current study analyzes the associations between the components of civic communities and homicide rates for New Orleans neighborhoods (census tracts) in the years following Hurricane Katrina. Results from negative binomial regression models adjusting for spatial autocorrelation reveal that community homicide rates are lower where an entrepreneurial business climate is more pronounced and where there is more local investment. Additionally, an interaction between the availability of civic institutions and resource disadvantage reveals that the protective effects of civic institutions are only evident in disadvantaged communities.     

Business structure,ethnic shifts in labor markets,and violence: The link between company size,local labor markets,and non-Latino homicide

Combining several schools of thought, including the civic engagement thesis, we extend current research by linking three things at the county level; firm size, the ethnic composition of labor markets, and violent crime. Our results suggest that larger businesses (based on the average number of persons employed) are more likely to have an external orientation and long recruitment reach, and this is linked to ethnic shifts in labor markets toward Latino workers. Such shifts are in turn associated with high rates of homicide among non-Latinos. Through indirect effects modeling, we find that increases in Black homicide are linked to rises in concentrated poverty, while increases in White homicide are linked to changes in unemployment. We discuss the implications of our findings.     

Workplace bullying,perceived job stressors,and psychological distress: Gender and race differences in the stress process

A large body of empirical research documents the adverse mental health consequences of workplace bullying. However, less is known about gender and race differences in the processes that link workplace bullying and poor mental health. In the current study, we use structural equation modeling of survey data from the 2010 Health and Retirement Study (N = 2292) and draw on stress process theory to examine coworker support as a buffering mechanism against workplace bullying, and gender and race differences in the relationships between bullying and psychological distress. The results of the analysis indicate that coworker support serves as a protective buffer against workplace bullying, although the buffering effect is relatively small. We also find that the effects of workplace bullying more heavily impact women and persons of color. Specifically, women and African American individuals in our sample were less protected from the buffering mechanism of co-worker social support.     

斯托雷平改革对村社的影响

俄国村社是自然形成的社会经济组织,在俄国历史中占有特殊地位。20世纪初,俄国当局的重大举措是斯托雷平改革,改革的主要目的就是消灭落后的村社,引领俄国走上资本主义道路。虽然改革最后并没有成功,但还是动摇了村社的根基,对村社产生了极大影响。改革促使村社的经济在某种程度上得以发展;激化了村社农民和地主、富农间矛盾并使农民分化问题加深;提高了青年人在社会中的地位,同时也使青年人沾染上不良风气。     

The differential impact of discrimination on health among Black and White women

Despite a large body of research examining the impact of discrimination on health, the ways in which perceived discrimination may lead to disparate health outcomes through a sense of self and system consciousness is less understood. The current paper is concerned with both mental and physical health consequences of discrimination, as well as mediating pathways among African American and White women. Indirect effects analyses examine mediating paths from discrimination to health outcomes via structural awareness and self-esteem, using data from the Women's Life Path Study (N = 237). Our findings suggest that discrimination is both directly and indirectly associated with health outcomes for both Black and White women, mediated by individual (self-esteem) and group-level (structural awareness) processes. Evidence from this study indicates that discrimination is associated with heightened structural awareness, as well as lower self-esteem – both of which are related to poorer health. Discrimination negatively affected health across three domains, although the mechanisms varied somewhat for Black and White women. Broad implications of this research for interdisciplinary scholarship on the effects of discrimination on health and health disparities are discussed.     

19世纪末20世纪初俄国远东经济发展中的亚洲移民--以中国人和朝鲜人为例

1860年后，俄国远东地区出现大量亚洲移民，其中包括中国人、朝鲜人和日本人。日本人数量较少，主要进行捕鱼作业。中国人和朝鲜人则遍布俄国远东各个经济领域。虽然俄国政府对外来移民的政策几经调整，但在远东劳动力极度匮乏的情况下，中国人和朝鲜人在俄国各经济领域仍然得到广泛使用，中国人和朝鲜人不仅为俄国远东提供了廉价劳动力，也为远东地区经济发展，边区稳定做出了重要贡献。     

Prismatic Metropolis: Race and Residential Segregation in the City of the Angels

Most major urban areas remain segregated by race, especially in terms of black segregation from whites. We replicate and extend the innovative approach developed by Farley and colleagues for understanding processes of racial residential segregation with data collected in Los Angeles. Using a large (N = 4025) multiracial sample of adults, we examine (1) actual and perceived differences in economic status, (2) mutual preference for same race neighbors, and (3) racial prejudice and discrimination as hypotheses for the persistence of residential segregation. With a systematic experimental design we gauge respondent openness to living in areas with varying proportions of black, white, Latino, or Asian neighbors. We find no support for actual or perceived cost of housing as a barrier to integration. Although all groups exhibit some degree of ethnocentric preference for same race neighbors, this tendency is strongest among whites rather than blacks and plays only a small role in perpetuating segregation. Blacks face the greatest hostility in the search for housing and are consensually recognized as most likely to face discrimination in the housing market. Racial minorities are more open to sharing residential space with whites than with other minorities. We find generally higher rates of openness to integration than Farley and colleagues found in their recent Detroit survey.