亚洲女性收入对生育率影响的国际比较研究--基于劳动参与率、受教育程度、就业方式的视角

通过构建家庭效用函数模型，论证了家庭收入增长中女性收入对家庭生育决策的影响，说明了随着女性收入的提高，会降低生育率。进一步，通过引用女性劳动参与率、受教育程度及就业方式作为女性收入对生育率影响的中间变量，再运用相关数据进行实证分析，发现女性劳动参与率、受教育程度对生育率有着负向的影响，而女性非全日制就业方式对生育率有着正向的影响。再进一步，对亚洲各国生育政策的调整进行国际比较，探讨生育政策的具体措施与影响女性收入的三个因素之间的关系，最后针对中国目前的生育水平提出两方面的建议：硬政策的完善和软环境的支持，以有助于提高人口素质，优化人口结构。     

农村地区孩子教育投资影响因素分析:山西省的经验证据

文章使用家庭内部资源分配的理论框架对中国农村家庭孩子教育投资影响因素进行分析。通过对山西省农村抽样调查数据的经验研究,揭示出在生存经济条件下,父母的劳动参与程度对于孩子的教育投入有显著的影响。作为父母劳动有效替代者,母亲的劳动参与程度增加会减少女孩的受教育年限,增加男孩的受教育年限,而父亲则相反。文章指出,减轻女性家务劳动负担的投资和补贴等政策有利于提高农村女孩受教育程度和缩小性别差距。     

女性受教育程度与婚配模式对二孩生育意愿的影响

在人口转变过程中,女性受教育程度的提升往往被认为是促进生育率下降的因素之一,但是在后人口转变时期,许多针对发达国家的研究发现女性的受教育程度与生育水平呈现正相关的关系。本文使用2010年、2012年和2013年中国综合社会调查数据,分析和比较中国女性的二孩生育意愿在不同受教育程度和不同教育婚配模式下的差异。结果显示在不考虑政策限制的情况下,受教育程度较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高,即便考虑了女性的收入水平后这一关系依然显著。研究发现在考虑夫妇的相对特征后,相比受教育程度均为初中的夫妇,夫妇受教育程度均较高或较低的女性的二孩生育意愿更高。文章使用生育的性别公平理论对生育意愿在女性受教育程度及婚配模式上的这一U型变化模式进行解释。生育行为不仅与经济水平或夫妻间的相对经济实力相关,还会受到性别观念的影响,更加平等的性别观念与性别关系有利于促进生育意愿的提升。政府应推广具有普惠性质的托育支持体系,促进女性就业和性别平等,使生育率维持在稳定水平。     

祖辈照料支持对育龄妇女二孩生育间隔的影响

在实行全面二孩、全面三孩的政策背景下,我国生育水平却持续下降。女性生育间隔扩大,是造成我国近年来生育率降低的重要原因之一。探明造成生育间隔扩大的影响机制,是理解我国近年来低生育率的关键。在此背景下,对祖辈提供照料支持能否显著缩短二孩生育间隔,以及祖辈照料对二孩生育间隔的影响机制进行研究,以期寻找阻碍和推迟二孩生育的原因,为制定生育友好型政策提供决策依据。基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),使用Cox回归模型验证了祖辈照料支持对育龄女性二孩生育间隔的影响及其作用机制。Cox回归结果显示：祖辈提供照料支持能降低女性生育二孩所需承担的直接成本和间接成本,并缓解工作与家庭冲突,进而显著缩短女性二孩生育间隔。城市身份、受教育程度和工作占用时长起正向调节作用,祖辈照料支持对城市女性、受教育程度更高和工作占用时间更长的女性二孩生育间隔影响更大。这是因为城市女性生育直接经济成本更高,受教育程度高女性间接生育成本更高,工作占用时间越长的女性工作与家庭冲突越强,祖辈照料支持对这些女性生育时间决策发挥更大影响。建议充分认识家庭中祖辈提供照料支持对生育的促进作用,针对二孩生育家庭提供经济补贴;优化...     

提高妇女地位与控制农村人口增长

<正> 农村妇女地位的高低,影响着农村生育率水平和农村计划生育工作。提高农村妇女地位,会有力地促进农村计划生育和降低农村妇女生育率,从而切实地控制农村人口的增长。本文试图对此问题,谈些粗浅的看法。一妇女地位的高低,主要表现为妇女在政治、经济、文化和家庭生活等方面地位的高低。提高农村妇女地位与控制农村人口增长的关系十分密切。第一,农村妇女地位的高低,影响农村生育率水平和控制农村人口增长工作。解放以后,妇女同男子一样成为国家的主人,广大妇女从家庭走向社会,参加社会劳动,获得     

2000-2010年中国育龄妇女生育完成度变化分析

新中国成立以来,妇女不论在社会活动领域还是家庭领域的地位都有了质的变化。妇女可以参与各种政治、经济、文化娱乐等活动,有的妇女在家庭领域的地位甚至超过了丈夫。尽管妇女受教育程度提高了,但与男性相比还有一定的差距。有研究表明:受教育程度和生育水平呈负相关,尤其是母亲的受教育水平影响更显著。由于教育的影响,妇女的生育水平和生育时间都发生了很大的变化。文章利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来研究育龄妇女的生育年龄的完成度变化情况,并对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率会在一定程度上呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

农村贫困地区家庭成员受教育程度、外出状况与家庭经济发展——基于河北省燕山-太行山、黑龙港流域的调查

贫困问题尤其是农村地区的贫困问题一直是我国政府和社会关注的焦点。随着社会经济发展水平的提高和城镇化的快速发展,农村贫困地区人们受教育程度显著提高,大量劳动人口外出务工经商,以期实现个人发展和家庭脱贫致富。本文利用对河北省境内燕山-太行山、黑龙港流域两个连片贫困地区的抽样调查数据,对家庭经济发展中家庭成员受教育程度、外出务工的作用进行定量分析和研究。实证证明家庭成员受教育程度对家庭经济状况有显著影响,但是存在内生性问题;外出务工状况对家庭经济状况有重要影响,然而外出打工只是家庭增加收入的一种方式,而非家庭彻底改变贫困状态从而脱贫致富的根本有效途径。     

城市老年人口家庭经济流动类型及其影响因素分析——以上海为例

文章采用“上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查”的数据，对不同人口学特征的城市老年人家庭代际经济流动类型进行分析，发现城市老年人家庭代际经济流动类型的性别差异、年龄差异、受教育程度差异和婚姻差异。运用二元Logistic回归对老年人家庭经济流动类型的影响因素进行分析，结果表明性别、年龄、受教育程度、子女补贴、月平均收入和住院天数等因素对老年人家庭代际经济流动类型有显著影响。     

东北地区长期低生育水平形成原因探析

20世纪70年代中期以来,东北地区人口生育率不断下降。目前东北地区的总和生育率基本与上海、北京持平,成为全国范围内人口生育率最低的地区。以往人们主要从思想观念方面解释东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因。本文主要从城镇化对人口生育率的一般影响与特殊影响、农村落实计划生育政策的实效、低人口生育率的跨期影响和人口结构变化、受教育程度与人口生育率的关系等方面分析东北地区超低人口生育率的形成原因,结论认为尽管不能完全否定生育观、生育意愿对实际人口生育率的影响,但经济社会发展状况和计划生育政策的落实情况是影响生育水平的最主要因素,生育观和生育意愿在很大程度上是经济社会发展的反映,并随着经济社会的发展而变化。     

边境地区农村人口流出及影响因素分析——以黑龙江省三个边境县的调查为例

边境地区农村人口流出根源在于地区发展的相对落后。新经济迁移理论等认为影响人口流动决策的因素有个人因素和家庭因素,迁移流动可以改善个人和家庭的社会经济状况。但是人口流出给边境地区农村的可持续发展带来不利影响。本文利用黑龙江省三个边境县人口流出的调查,分析流出人口的个人特征和家庭特征,通过建立Logistic回归模型分析影响人口流出的因素。结果表明,年龄、有无外出经历、婚姻、受教育水平、家庭人口规模和户籍等对人口流出有显著影响。应提高边境地区农村公共服务能力、完善社会福利与保障体系,推动边境地区经济社会发展,缓解边境人口流出的问题,维护边境地区人口和社会稳定。     

Book reviews

Fertility has declined to below replacement levels in many of the modern industrialized countries during the last three decades. This decline has been explained by various modern socio-economic characteristics, such as the change in women's status, their increased participation in non-familial activities, modern consumption patterns, and increasing costs of raising ‘quality’ children. The Jewish population of Israel is a modern society with such characteristics. Yet, total fertility in Israel during the 1980s was at least one child higher than in most European countries. It is shown that social heterogeneity makes this an over-simplified comparison. Indeed, it is the high fertility of the orthodox population among the two major ethnic groups, combined with the decline towards below-replacement fertility of the non-orthodox, which produces the high mean fertility of the entire population. While during the 1950s and 1960s the major explanations of fertility variation were concerned with ethnicity and socio-economic status, these were replaced by religiosity in the 1970s and the 1980s.     

Explaining religious differentials in family-size preference: Evidence from Nepal in 1996

We examine how religio-ethnic identity, individual religiosity, and family members' religiosity were related to preferred family size in Nepal in 1996. Analyses of survey data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study show that socio-economic characteristics and individual experiences can suppress, as well as largely account for, religio-ethnic differences in fertility preference. These religio-ethnic differentials are associated with variance in particularized theologies or general value orientations (like son preference) across groups. In addition, individual and family religiosity are both positively associated with preferred family size, seemingly because of their association with religious beliefs—beliefs that are likely to shape fertility strategies. These findings suggest the need for improvements in how we conceptualize and measure supra-individual religious influence in a variety of settings and for a range of demographically interesting outcomes.     

"发展-计划生育-生育率"的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察

顾宝昌在1987年利用省级数据考察了中国的生育率,通过路径分析得出社会经济发展和计划生育对中国生育率都有重要的直接影响的结论.李建民在2004年分析了我国低生育率的经济环境,提出1990年代我国生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果.基于这些结论或假设,本文利用中国省级数据,再次考察"发展-计划生育-生育率"关系,结果表明在过去30年里,计划生育的作用在下降,而社会经济发展的作用在增强.1970年代计划生育的作用是主导,1980年代计划生育与社会经济发展二者的作用基本达到了平衡,而1990年代社会经济发展的作用成为主导."发展-计划生育-生育率"关系呈献出一种动态平衡.     

Causes of fertility decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union II

Abstract The first part of this study (which appeared in the preceding issue of Population Studies) assessed the extent of the decline in fertility in the countries of the area during the last 10-15 years, and analyzed the purely demographic aspects ofthis phenomenon. Part II examines the socio-economic differentials in fertility, with regard to such variables as urban-rural residence, socio-occupational and employment status of women, educational attainment, income and housing conditions, and the consequent impact of structural changes in these characteristics of the population on observed fertility trends. The broad conclusion is that the fertility differentials usually found in western societies are also relevant to the socialist countries of eastern Europe, and that the dramatic falls in fertility in the 1950's and the 1960's have largely been the outcome ofthe deep and rapid structural changes, particularly those associated with urbanization, educational attainment and the incidence of female employment. The last part of the study is concerned with the impact on post-war fertility trends of social legislation and of general economic policies, particularly in the fields of employment and income. An appraisal of the extent of family planning is followed by a discussion of the recent pro-natalist measures introduced in most countries of the area and of their effectiveness.     

The Role of Contraceptive Supply and Demand in Mexican Fertility Decline: Evidence from a Microdemographic Study

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services.     

Differential fertility in peasant communities: A study of Six Iranian Villages

Summary This paper attempts to study the relation between socio-economic status and fertility in a sample of six villages in Iran. An index of socio-economic status was constructed. The data reveal positive association between socio-economic status and fertility behaviour of rural couples. When duration of marriage, age of woman at marriage and contraceptive use were introduced into the socio-economic status-fertility relationships, they failed to alter the original findings. Because socio-economic status is related to a number of variables which directly or indirectly influence fertility, additional variables such as miscarriage, stillbirth and lactation must be incorporated into rural surveys on fertility differentials.     

The role of contraceptive supply and demand in Mexican fertility decline: evidence from a microdemographic study

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services.     

基于符号互动论视角下的个体生育态度探究

近年来随着人口老龄化进程的明显加快，以及不同地区、城市出现的生育率持续走低等情况，中国未来人口数量的变化成为了一个十分重要的议题。近年来，国家先后制定了“双独生二胎”、“单独生二胎”以及全面放开二胎等鼓励民众生育的相关政策；相关学者也从人口学和经济学等视角对生育问题展开了诸多研究。本研究则是从符号互动论这一微观社会学视角出发，试图了解民众（主要集中在1970年至1995年出生的群体）生育态度是否会受到社会心理因素，尤其是从小生长的家庭环境中，兄弟姊妹等手足人数、手足关系、父母对待子女公平与否和出生排行的影响；以及当前生活环境，如社会治安状况、经济发展前景和政治稳定性等方面的主观判断对生育态度的影响；最后研究还将结婚意愿、性别等因素纳入到影响个体生育态度的分析模型之中。研究结果发现，兄弟姊妹等手足越多者，未来越倾向要生孩子；手足间关系越好者，未来也越倾向于要生孩子；排行中间的比排行老大的生孩子意愿高；无论父母对自己和手足公平情况怎样，都不会影响其生育态度。此外在所有外在环境中，经济状况是影响人们生育态度的主要因素，有结婚意愿者更倾向于生育孩子，男性也显著比女性更倾向于生育孩子。     

The economic explanation of fertility changes in the United States

Abstract It is widely assumed that fertility varies positively with economic conditions. Actually this assumption receives little support from the historical record. For a century before 1930 fertility declined while the economy expanded and real incomes rose. Then for nearly three decades fertility and incomes fell and rose together. Since 1960 they have again moved in opposite directions. Clearly, no simple generalization about their relation will hold water. More sophisticated explanations are based on relative rather than absolute incomes. Banks suggested that the downturn in English fertility in the 1870's might have occurred because standards of middle-class consumption rose faster than middle-class incomes, but he found the evidence inconclusive. To reconcile the post-war baby boom in the United States with earlier experience, Easterlin has argued that fertility is determined by the relationship between the income of couples in their twenties and the income of their parents ten to fifteen years earlier. Among the weaknesses of this theory as applied to U.S. experience are its failure to explain the sharp drop in fertility, including that of native white urban women, in the 1920's; the fact that fertility rose most in the baby boom at the higher socio-economic levels where incomes rose least; and the sharp decline of fertility after 1962 in spite of the favourable trend of incomes, including those of younger people. The broad conclusion is that while couples no doubt do consider income, employment opportunities, etc. in deciding how many children to have, such considerations have had a relatively minor influence on changes in fertility, which for the most part have been the result of changes in attitudes. Even the post-war baby boom was a result not only of higher incomes and full employment but also of a shift in attitudes toward family size, particularly among the better-educated, economically better-off sections of society.     

文化因素对性别偏好的决定作用

中国传统文化中强烈的男孩偏好是导致高出生性别比的根本原因,且急剧的社会经济变革和有效的计划生育政策所导致的低生育率也起到了加剧的作用。国家生育调控导致夫妇在生育孩子数量和性别选择上的冲突,本质上是制度与文化的冲突。传统生育文化的力量是顽强和巨大的,并带有一定程度的继承性和历史滞留性,只有以一种新型生育文化去替代重男轻女、传宗接代的传统生育文化,才能逐渐弱化人们的性别偏好。