Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Financing urban growth in China: A case study of Guangzhou

Rapid urban growth has become a global phenomenon. As these city populations expand, urban governance is even more of a daunting challenge in many countries. China is not an exception. It is at once a transitional state still undergoing urbanization and economic development; it is also currently experiencing a slowing economy. China's cities must simultaneously continue to improve the quality of urban life while maintaining social stability. Using the city of Guangzhou as an example of China's mega-cities, this study explores the financing strategies used by Chinese cities to manage urban growth. While economic growth has always been the main priority, Guangzhou's strategy has not followed China's traditional approach of growth for growth's sake; instead, it is relying on investment in innovation and transportation to promote the local economy. Education is also being stressed as a means of fostering human resources. However, undisciplined infrastructure financing and ineffective intergovernmental fiscal relations are jeopardizing the city's fiscal sustainability. To correct this will require further reforms of China's fiscal system and a careful sequencing of reforms to maintain a sustainable growth in the urban area.     

The cost of war: Impact of sanctions on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine

We use a computable general equilibrium model of world trade to quantify the possible impact of economic sanctions imposed by Western and other countries in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If sender countries chose 100 % import tariffs and export taxes on trade with Russia, Russia’s GDP would decline by 3–7 % due to the resulting significant reduction in exports. By contrast, the GDP loss for those countries would be 0.2 % for the European economies, but only about 0.05 % for Japan. Although unlikely, the effect of China’s participation in the sanctions would be more significant than that of India. There are concerns about food and energy crises due to economic sanctions against Russia, but the effect on food supplies would not be a serious problem for either senders or third parties. The impact on energy supplies would affect all senders to some extent; for example, there would be a 3% reduction of energy consumption and a 3–4 % rise in electricity and town gas prices in Japan.     

Input-occupancy-output models of the non-competitive type and their application - an examination of the China-US trade surplus

本文构建了一种能够反映中国加工贸易特点的非竞争（进口）型投入占用产出模型,提出了一个国家全部出口与分部门、分大类商品的单位出口对国内增加值和就业的拉动效应的计算方法,从数学上证明了出口总值等于出口商品所包含的完全国内增加值与完全进口额之和,并据此编制了2002年中美两国的非竞争（进口）型投入占用产出表,测算和分析了中美两国出口对各自国内增加值和就业的影响。     

Reserve financing and government infrastructure investment: An application to China

This paper proposes a novel financing scheme, reserve financing, for government infrastructure investment in China. A two-sector open economy model explores the consequences and policy implications of a surge in infrastructure investment financed by international reserves. The results show that reserve financing, coupled with a managed float exchange rate system, can maintain the country's fast growth rate while mitigating fiscal pressure on local governments. Productive infrastructure capital stimulates domestic demand, reducing the country's dependence on exports. To promote growth and maintain price stability, three factors are critical: return on infrastructure, swift fiscal adjustment, and rapid infrastructure financing.     

Social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China and its policy initiatives

The Global Financial Crisis has brought eminent, negative economic and social impacts on China since late 2008, including a considerable decline in GDP growth and a rapid rise in unemployment. Drawing on the published literature and official statistical data, this paper examines the social consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in China, explores various policy initiatives taken by the Chinese government and assesses the effectiveness of these policy initiatives. It argues that the Global Financial Crisis has led to high levels of enterprise bankruptcy and job losses in China. Rural migrant workers and new university graduates are the two social groups most adversely affected. The economic stimulus package and expanded social programmes tend to be short term and economic oriented. Whether the policy initiatives have been effective in mitigating the social impacts of this crisis and correcting the structural imbalance of China's economy is unclear. The paper concludes by suggesting that a new policy approach should be taken to timely and effectively address the negative social impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on China, in particular by providing a more inclusive and comprehensive social safety net, prioritizing employment generation, and addressing housing deficits.     

Impact of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Asia

The study makes an attempt to contribute to the ongoing policy debate on whether OFDI has a complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment and hence, growth. For the purpose, the current paper uses panel data analysis to understand the impact of OFDI for 14 emerging economies in the period 1981–2019. We supplement the cross-country evidence with a time series analysis for India, given that FDI outflows from the country have been steadily increasing over the years. The results confirm the positive effect of OFDI on economic growth, but the substitution effect for domestic investment. This indicates that the OFDI positively affects growth through its effect on trade and other positive spillover effect, rather than domestic investment. However, in case of India, the findings support the complementary effect of OFDI on domestic investment.     

Fruit safety regulations in the transatlantic region: How are Africa’s exports faring with the regulations?

The regulations of fruit trade for safe consumption are taken seriously in the EU and US markets to protect the health of the consumers, animals, plants and environmental safety, and thereby reduce health expenditures. The fruit safety regulations as trade policy measures could be either trade-promoting or -impeding. The extensiveness and intensiveness of fruit safety regulations in these markets often have consequences for exporters from Africa and their desire to attain sustainable economic development. The effects of fruit safety regulations are heterogeneous across economic agents. To this end, many stakeholders in Africa’s food system have perceived compliance with these food regulatory measures as necessary conditions to access the developed countries’ markets, particularly in the EU and US. Besides, the competitiveness of Africa’s fruit exports has been impacted by the preponderance of the measures despite its comparative advantages in the fruits sub-sector. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of the EU and US sanitary and phytosanitary measures on Africa’s fruit exports. The empirical strategy involves the use of an augmented gravity model which explore the disentangling of these impact at the extensive and intensive margins of exports. Given the nature of trade data and specifically for this study, the zero trade flows are considered at both margins of exports for 45 African countries from 1995 to 2017. This study finds that the US market is more trade-impeding to Africa’s fruit exports than the EU market. Thus, Africa needs policies tweaking in the fruit value chain quality infrastructure, fruits’ quality and standards enforcement, capacity development, continuous update and modernisation of the fruits’ safety laws, directives and/or regulations. This will enhance the fruits’ quality to propel their access to the transatlantic markets.     

地方经济结构与制造业增长：来自对比苏浙两省的经验证据

利用苏浙两省1999年-2007年27个制造行业的面板数据,对比分析地方经济结构（专业化与多样化经济、本地竞争与垄断、FDI与出口）的外部性对制造业发展的影响。结果表明：多样化经济对苏浙两省产业发展有促进作用,专业化经济对浙江省产业发展有促进作用而对江苏省产业发展的影响不明显;本地竞争有利于产业发展,本地企业规模（垄断）对江苏省产业发展有促进作用,对浙江省有阻碍作用;FDI对两省产业发展的作用不明显,而出口有利于产业发展;产业集中对江苏省产业发展有促进作用而对浙江省有阻碍作用;传统的要素投入中,资本对产业发展具有一定的促进作用,而劳动力投入的作用不明显。     

Something of value: the religious response to de-Maoization in China

The title of this paper is taken from a novel written by Robert Ruark several decades ago concerning the Mau Mau uprising in Kenya. Ruark's contention was that when the British conquered and colonized Kenya, they destroyed the indigenous culture but failed to replace it with an alternative. The result was an ineffective search by the native population for a value system and the barbarism of the Mau Mau uprising. A similar phenomenon has been occurring in China over the past nearly 25 years.Following the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 and the end of the Cultural Revolution, Deng Xiaoping became China's paramount leader. He launched a series of economic reforms which allowed for a limited capitalism. This required formal ideological justification by the Communist Party of China (CPC). The Resolution on CPC history in 1981 was duly adopted. It attempted unsuccessfully to separate Mao Zedong Thought from Mao Zedong the man. Consequently, the Party's legitimacy rests solely on economic success and power. However, many people in China find this lacking and are searching for new belief systems. This paper seeks to establish the hypothesis that this search is the primary reason for the formation of new religious movements in China (Christian and other, such as Falundafa) which have not been officially recognized and accepted.     

What underlies the recent growth comeback in developing economies?

We find that the frequency of growth takeoffs in developing economies has risen markedly in the past two decades, with recent takeoffs lasting longer than those prior to the 1990s. Also, unlike takeoffs prior to the 1990s, developing economies in recent takeoffs experienced an improvement in economic policies, with lower post-takeoff debt and inflation; more competitive real exchange rates; and stronger structural reforms and institutions. These conditions have tended to be associated in the literature as conducive to sustaining strong growth. We also find that the chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. Thus, if developing economies improve their economic policies and sustain them forward, they are more likely to jumpstart takeoffs and avoid the reversals in economic fortunes that affected many developing economies in the past.     

Social security for China's rural aged: a proposal based on a universal non‐contributory pension

Yang Y, Williamson JB, Shen C. Social security for China's rural aged: a proposal based on a universal non‐contributory pension Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 236–245 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. China's relative lack of social security coverage for rural elders exacerbates the already severe rural–urban economic disparity, slows the rate of rural poverty reduction, and raises social justice concerns. Our analysis draws on evidence from a number of sources including interviews with experts on China, Chinese government documents, Chinese newspaper accounts, and other sources from other countries. Based on our analysis of what has been tried in other countries and the current situation in rural China, we offer some suggestions for Chinese policy makers. We suggest that, for rural China, a universal non‐contributory old‐age pension deserves serious consideration, and refer to our proposed model as a Rural Old‐Age Social Pension. It will reduce the level of poverty in rural areas and the degree of income inequality between rural and urban areas while simultaneously promoting social and political stability.     

房价上涨路径分析综述

1998年住宅实行商品化后,房价上升迅速,房价上升是由于我国货币供应量超过国民经济总量所致。货币超发与我国在改革开放后经济的增长模式高度相关,以出口和投资特别是政府投资带动的经济发展,在经济制度选择上引致货币被动和主动的超发。政府投资的资金依赖于城镇土地出让金,在城镇土地出让数量受到限制的约束下,土地出让金被不断地推高,带动房价上涨超过居民的实际购买力水平。     

The implementation and development of child welfare and protection works in China

The Chinese government adheres to the principle of ‘children first’ and actively protects their rights of survival, development, protection and participation through methods such as laws and regulations, policy system, public services and pilot works. The Chinese government aimed to narrow the gap between children's development in rural and urban areas and to continuously improve the level of child welfare. The government complies fully with its responsibilities in raising the overall quality of life for children and improving their health and overall development.

China has 280 million children, and is the country with the most children in the world. China is a signatory of and a country that loyally implements the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Since the economic reform, China's economy has developed rapidly, politics has been harmonized and stabilized, and the degree of social civilization has risen continuously. At the same time, work on children has also achieved remarkable accomplishments in China.     

The impact of de-globalization on China’s economic transformation: Evidence from manufacturing export

The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.     

从中日对比看后发国家的基础设施投融资

中日两国同为国际基础设施投融资市场上的后发国家,先后对经济合作与发展组织主导的国际发展金融机制产生了冲击。通过对两国四家政策性金融机构的深入分析发现:当下,日本的海外基础设施投融资大体遵循了经合组织倡导的模式,将发展性的官方援助与商业性的出口信贷分开经营,前者支援欠发达国家,后者则流向更发达的市场;中国的海外基础设施投融资类似早期的日本,兼顾发展性与商业性,主攻发展中国家项目。日本实行分营模式是其经济发展到一定水平后与国际制度碰撞而妥协的结果,后发国家最初多依靠政府支持拓展海外业务,随着企业逐渐做强,政府与企业的偏好产生差异,基建资金或出现分流。对中日四家政策性金融机构的对比分析,有助于完善对两国开展海外基础设施投融资活动的认识,也可为在“一带一路”建设中两国拓展合作提供参考。     

Stimulating effects of intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies in China

Based on the pilot projects of intelligent manufacturing of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China and the annual data reported by listed companies, this paper studies the effect of China's intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies by using the panel data of relevant enterprises from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mechanism of impact. Our empirical tests, using the difference-in-difference method, shows that intelligent policy can significantly improve the economic performance of manufacturing enterprises by guiding enterprises to optimize their intelligent management, strengthening investment in intelligent equipment and promoting collaborative manufacturing. Further empirical tests show that the impact of intelligent policy on economic performance is different in time. In the later selected pilot enterprises, the impact of intelligent policy on their economic performance is more significant; there is regional heterogeneity in the effects of intelligent policy: in regions with low intelligence, the positive impact of intelligent policy on the economic performance of manufacturing industry is more significant. Based on these conclusions, relevant intelligent policy suggestions are put forward.     

Responding to child maltreatment: Comparison between the USA and China

A recent study estimated that over one‐fourth of Chinese children have suffered maltreatment (Fang et al., 2015 ). However, the current child welfare policy in China is limited to orphans, abandoned children, and children with disabilities. Also, there is very little comparative research in China on Chinese and other countries’ child welfare systems. The purpose of this study was to analyze applicable US and Chinese child welfare policies, identify gaps in Chinese policy regarding child maltreatment, and make recommendations for a policy agenda for improving child welfare in China based on cultural values and existing policy structures. Results show that China has considerable capacity to make improvements in child protective services, foster care, and adoption policies. Based on the results of this study, several implications are provided to develop China's child maltreatment policy to increase children's outcomes of well‐being, safety, and permanency. Key Practitioner Message: ? To understand the background and system of current Chinese child maltreatment policy; ? To review US child maltreatment policy and its implementation to identify gaps in the Chinese child maltreatment system; ? To provide policy suggestions to develop Chinese child maltreatment policy and provide recommendations for social work education and practice in China.     

AUSTRALIAN LIVING STANDARDS: SOME GENDER CONSIDERATIONS

This paper is an exploration of the contemporary definitions in use of the idea of a standard of living as it has been developed in social policy and economic research both in Australia and overseas. It is suggested that the assumptions underpinning the idea of a standard of living in areas such as poverty research or the analysis of redistributive policies and their effects are neither tenable nor useful. The concept is flawed because it makes unreasonable assumptions about the household and the nature of women's domestic labour. Consideration of the gender blindness of much economics suggests the need for a major revision in our approach to the idea of a standard of living.