Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data

Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine‐tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross‐validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.     

Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis

When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied.     

Spatial Planning in Ghana: Exploring the Contradictions

The purpose of this research is twofold: to explore the complexity of spatial plan preparation and implementation in Ghana using Kumasi as a case study; and second, to examine the contradictions of spatial plans and ‘actual development’ occurring in Kumasi. Using social science research methods (semi-structured interviews) and physical survey (land use plans), findings indicate that spatial planning in Kumasi is a bureaucratic process hijacked by urban planning agencies with limited involvement of urban residents. As a result, urban development is considerably influenced by spontaneous informal development patterns (i.e. self-organization). This phenomenon of self-organization is expressed in a context of uncertainty created by weak spatial planning system which encourages haphazard development. Regrettably, in Kumasi, self-organization is often overlooked by spatial planning agencies as they focused on rigid and exclusionary spatial plans. This paper advocates consideration and integration of self-organization processes in spatial planning efforts to respond adequately to the urban development challenges confronting Kumasi.     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

A Bayesian Method to Mine Spatial Data Sets to Evaluate the Vulnerability of Human Beings to Catastrophic Risk

Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate‐area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge‐ and data‐based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability.     

考虑空间随机需求的急救站点选址规划

随着人民生活水平的提高和人口老龄化加剧，公众对急救医疗服务的要求越来越高。为保证急救需求的响应及时性，急救站点的选址规划问题受到广泛关注。急救站点选址的依据是需求的分布，然而现有研究未能充分考虑急救需求在空间分布上的随机性影响，通常将其空间分布简化为若干个集中需求点，或将规划空间划分为若干矩形网格，然而这种需求刻画过于粗略，导致需求覆盖水平的计算不够准确，影响配置方案的有效性。针对该问题，本研究应用高斯混合模型解决了急救需求的空间分布刻画问题，创新性地提出基于高斯混合聚类的站点选址规划方法，考虑急救需求时空随机性，建立了相应的机会约束规划模型。实际数据的验证分析表明，该选址方法能够显著减少服务延误时间和次数，保证急救服务的响应及时性。     

Use and Misuse of Indicators in Spatial Planning: The Example of Land Take

The use of indicators to assess the impacts of spatial planning policies has experienced a strong increase in the last decades, despite the difficulties to identify clear causality links in this discipline. The aim of this article is to critically reflect on the impacts of such a phenomenon on spatial planning policies and practices. In order to do so, it explores the issue of land take and how the European Community has set up a policy objective, based on an indicator, to try to tackle the phenomenon.     

Spain Following in the EU’s Footsteps: The Europeanization of Spatial Planning in its Autonomous Communities

Recent years have seen the emergence of the European dimension to the territorial planning conducted at lower scales, in a process described as the ‘Europeanization’ of spatial planning. Given that, to date, this phenomenon has received little attention as it affects Spain, this article seeks to analyse the impact of Europeanization on Spanish spatial planning, focused on an examination of its regional territorial plans. The results show that Spain has been no exception in the application of these European directives but, at the same time, its unique administrative organization means that the process of Europeanization remains slow and heterogeneous in its application.     

Social Learning in Transnational Spatial Planning Processes: An Analysis of the ‘V4+2’ Cooperation on Spatial Development

ABSTRACT

Social learning can offer a useful lens to analyse multi-actor cooperation processes and their outcomes. In this paper, a conceptual framework based on learning theories is applied to a recent transnational spatial planning process in Central Europe to analyse how the cooperation agenda was shaped, a joint strategy developed, and to understand the possible policy effects of this process. The findings allow a reflection on the potentials of, and challenges for, multi-actor cooperation on spatial planning in large regions covering several countries.     

Comparing Spatial Planning Systems and Planning Cultures in Europe. The Need for a Multi-scalar Approach

Abstract

The article argues that in order to understand changes in planning systems and planning cultures in Europe, there is need to adopt a multi-scalar approach with different entry points of analysis. This should give emphasis to the overlooked aspects of actor constellation, knowledge and policy styles. Without neglecting the importance of institutional and legal contexts of spatial planning the comparative analysis should focus on the changes emerging in actor arenas, at different scales of planning practices (project/local, city, regional, cross/border and the national level). Furthermore, the cultural features of planning, the different steering styles and the norms, values, belief systems, visions and frames of the actors involved in the planning process are significant. Adiachronic historical analysis is needed in order to compare changes of planning systems and cultures between different places.     

Spatial Risk Analysis of Power Systems Resilience During Extreme Events

The increased frequency of extreme events in recent years highlights the emerging need for the development of methods that could contribute to the mitigation of the impact of such events on critical infrastructures, as well as boost their resilience against them. This article proposes an online spatial risk analysis capable of providing an indication of the evolving risk of power systems regions subject to extreme events. A Severity Risk Index (SRI) with the support of real‐time monitoring assesses the impact of the extreme events on the power system resilience, with application to the effect of windstorms on transmission networks. The index considers the spatial and temporal evolution of the extreme event, system operating conditions, and the degraded system performance during the event. SRI is based on probabilistic risk by condensing the probability and impact of possible failure scenarios while the event is spatially moving across a power system. Due to the large number of possible failures during an extreme event, a scenario generation and reduction algorithm is applied in order to reduce the computation time. SRI provides the operator with a probabilistic assessment that could lead to effective resilience‐based decisions for risk mitigation. The IEEE 24‐bus Reliability Test System has been used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed online risk analysis, which was embedded in a sequential Monte Carlo simulation for capturing the spatiotemporal effects of extreme events and evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis

Quantitative risk analysis is being extensively employed to support policymakers and provides a strong conceptual framework for evaluating decision alternatives under uncertainty. Many problems involving environmental risks are, however, of a spatial nature, i.e., containing spatial impacts, spatial vulnerabilities, and spatial risk‐mitigation alternatives. Recent developments in multicriteria spatial analysis have enabled the assessment and aggregation of multiple impacts, supporting policymakers in spatial evaluation problems. However, recent attempts to conduct spatial multicriteria risk analysis have generally been weakly conceptualized, without adequate roots in quantitative risk analysis. Moreover, assessments of spatial risk often neglect the multidimensional nature of spatial impacts (e.g., social, economic, human) that are typically occurring in such decision problems. The aim of this article is therefore to suggest a conceptual quantitative framework for environmental multicriteria spatial risk analysis based on expected multi‐attribute utility theory. The framework proposes: (i) the formal assessment of multiple spatial impacts; (ii) the aggregation of these multiple spatial impacts; (iii) the assessment of spatial vulnerabilities and probabilities of occurrence of adverse events; (iv) the computation of spatial risks; (v) the assessment of spatial risk mitigation alternatives; and (vi) the design and comparison of spatial risk mitigation alternatives (e.g., reductions of vulnerabilities and/or impacts). We illustrate the use of the framework in practice with a case study based on a flood‐prone area in northern Italy.     

Territorial Politics,Devolution and Spatial Planning in the UK: Results,Prospects, Lessons

This article critically analyses the debates which have unfolded in the aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum of 18 September 2014 concerning the constitutional arrangements of the UK as a plurinational state and the internal governmental structure of England. The debates unfolding in the UK reflect and illustrate two central themes in planning, territorial development and public policy. First, they highlight the contested distribution of power across multiple layers of government in states with an inherited centralized pattern of governance that are now facing strengthening regionalist and nationalist claims. Second, they illustrate the linked growth in the demand for new governance and strategic planning arrangements in large metropolitan areas with fragmented administrative and institutional boundaries. The article first discusses what the outcome of the Scottish referendum (and its aftermath) means for planning in Scotland. It then turns to the debates on devolution in the rest of UK which were stoked in the wake of the referendum, looking at the planning implications of further devolution in Northern Ireland and Wales, and at the possible consequences of the various options currently being aired to solve the ‘English question’. Finally, ongoing debates on decentralization to regions and city-regions in England are briefly considered.     

技术的空间维度溢出与经济追赶——基于省份专利数据和空间计量的验证

利用区域技术创新倾向来测度各区域技术水平,结合空间计量经济相关理论改进了Pigliaru包含外生倾向增长模型,构建加入地理空间因素的知识生产函数模型和包含创新空间溢出的外生增长模型;基于我国省份专利数据验证了区域间技术创新倾向的空间关联性和空间维度的溢出及其对区域间经济追赶的正向作用。     

Scale,Governance, Urban Form and Landscape: Exploring the Scope for an Integrated Approach to Metropolitan Spatial Planning

Based on the example of Metropolitan Cork, this paper looks at strands of planning thinking as they apply to the city-region: economic and political arguments about the scale of a city; landscape arguments about identity and place; spatial arguments about urban form and environmentally grounded arguments about nature, ecology and the city. Bringing together the different theoretical contexts and disciplinary frameworks of these interrelated approaches and relating them both to the often contradictory principles of sustainable development and to the challenge of achieving appropriate systems of governance at this scale, it explores an initial argument for how holistic and mutually reinforcing approaches to the spatial resilience of a city region might re-emerge.     

Knowledge Diversity and Venture Growth: The Contingent Effects of Early Planning and Experimentation

Drawing on an information processing perspective, we explore to what extent early venture activities allow founding teams to leverage their diverse knowledge to achieve venture growth. Using data from 103 young ventures, we find that early planning enables founding teams to better exploit the diverse knowledge resulting from their heterogeneity in educational background. However, venture growth is highest when diverse teams simultaneously plan and experiment in the early venture phase. This study challenges extant explanations of when early behaviours shape the efficient usage of existing venture resources. We discuss the contribution of these findings to the literature on founding teams, planning and experimentation, and team diversity.     

Spatial Risk Assessment Across Large Landscapes with Varied Land Use: Lessons from a Conservation Assessment of Military Lands

Spatial decision-support tools are necessary for assessment and management of threats to biodiversity, which in turn is necessary for biodiversity conservation. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey-Biological Resources Division's Species at Risk program, we developed a GIS-based spatial decision-support tool for relative risk assessments of threats to biodiversity on the U.S. Army's White Sands Missile Range and Fort Bliss (New Mexico and Texas) due to land uses associated with military missions of the two bases. The project tested use of spatial habitat models, land-use scenarios, and species-specific impacts to produce an assessment of relative risks for use in conservation planning on the 1.2 million-hectare study region. Our procedure allows spatially explicit analyses of risks to multiple species from multiple sources by identifying a set of hazards faced by all species of interest, identifying a set of feasible management alternatives, assigning scores to each species for each hazard, and mapping the distribution of these hazard scores across the region of interest for each combination of species/management alternatives. We illustrate the procedure with examples. We demonstrate that our risk-based approach to conservation planning can provide resource managers with a useful tool for spatial assessment of threats to species of concern.     

普惠金融支持光伏发电发展的空间效应研究

近年来中国光伏发电装机在上网电价补贴支持下快速发展,然而当前面临着补贴拖欠和退坡的严峻挑战,因此通过金融手段解决光伏发电融资难题至关重要。尽管近年来各省获取金融服务的水平整体有所提升,但空间上仍存在明显发展不平衡的问题。因此,本文对中国普惠金融发展指数及其对中国光伏发电发展促进作用进行空间相关性检验,引入空间权重并选取各省太阳辐射量、电力消费量、煤炭消耗量和各省电价补贴额度等作为控制变量,构建了普惠金融对光伏装机规模影响的空间面板计量模型。结果表明,中国普惠金融发展水平呈现西低东高发展格局,而光伏发电发展也具有显著的空间异质性;光伏发电前期阶段主要由光照资源主导因而分布在西部地区,后期装机中心向普惠金融水平更高的东部地区转移;可见中国普惠金融发展对光伏装机容量具有显著支持效果,且该支持效果存在空间溢出效应。因此,相对于政府补贴等方法,普惠金融水平的提升可以更有效支持光伏发电发展。     

Disentangling the Governance Configurations of Strategic Spatial Plan-Making in European Urban Regions

This paper is aimed at assessing and disentangling how territorial governance configurations influence contemporary practices in strategic plan-making in 14 European urban regions. The findings allow us to distinguish three dominant practices: i) plan-making shaped by consensus building and multilevel government cooperation; ii) plan-making shaped by the involvement of profit-oriented actors and negotiations, and iii) plan-making shaped by consolidated planning practice. To truly grasp plan-making practice, it is necessary to scrutinize who rules and who is ruled while negotiations are unfolding, as well as the extent to which private actors’ interests influence how spatial development goals and strategies are defined.