基于均值回复模型的VIX期权定价——源于日历时间与内在时间的视角

关于VIX时间序列及其期权定价研究较多,但源于日历时间与内在时间视角的研究较少。本文考虑到投资者对均值回复的认知情绪,应用布朗运动与调和稳态过程分别拟合日历时间与内在时间带来的波动,构建基于调和稳态多类均值回复模型对VIX期权定价展开研究。研究结果表明,考虑投资者对VIX认知情绪后构建基于调和稳态的均值回复情绪模型能较好地拟合VIX指数的尖峰厚尾的现象,更能抓住一般结构性模型刻画不理想的非对称跳、有偏、局部均值回复等新的随机特征,并验证了模型不是越复杂越好的结论。     

Fertility and Employment in Italy,France, and the UK

Abstract. According to the agenda for employment set by the European Union in 2000 for the following 10 years, the target for female employment was set at 60 per cent for the year 2010. Although Northern and most Continental countries have achieved this quantitative target, the Mediterranean countries are lagging behind. Labor market policies should be aimed to encourage women's participation and reduce the cost of working. However, the persistence of a negative relationship between participation and fertility in these countries implies that it is important to take fertility into account. We analyse a model of labor supply and fertility, using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) for the period 1994–2000, merged with regional data describing the available labor market opportunities in the households’ environment.     

Permanent Disadvantage or Gradual Integration: Explaining the Immigrant–Native Earnings Gap in Sweden

Theoretical explanations suggest that wage differentials between immigrant and native workers are generated either by differences in the acquisition of human capital or by various forms of exclusion of immigrants from fair labour market rewards. We evaluate the labour quality and labour market discrimination hypotheses by using a large sample of Swedish employees in 1995. Our findings show that labour market integration is relatively unproblematic for immigrants from Western countries, whereas immigrants from other countries, especially from Africa, Asia and Latin America, face substantial obstacles to earnings progress when entering the Swedish labour market. For the latter group of countries, extensive controls for general and country‐specific human capital reduce the earnings differentials. However, the remaining gap is of a non‐trivial magnitude. Thus, the labour quality hypothesis accounts for a part of the observed native–immigrant wage gap, but the remaining differentials can be interpreted in terms of labour market discrimination.     

基于总成本和碳减排的物流园区与产业园区协同选址

随着经济全球化的不断深化，世界各国越来越重视通过构建和延伸产业链，通过区域之间的产业联动发展等方式，来获得更多的经济要素、占领更大的市场和实现产业转型升级，以达到提高整个区域产业竞争力的目的，物流园区和产业园区的协同选址以及货物的优化分配方案有利于加强区域产业间的协同效应，从而促进区域经济的整体发展。本文在物流园区和产业园区备选点确定的前提下，针对物流园区和产业园区协同选址问题，采用多目标理论，分别以总成本和总废气排放量为目标函数，建立多目标选址模型，并设计了带有精英策略的非支配排序遗传算法，通过算法求解物流园区和产业园区的协同建设地址以及货物优化分配方案。应用算例对算法进行了分析，结果表明本文设计的算法具有一定的高效性，同时通过对主要参数的敏感性分析，验证了模型具有稳定性。     

内部控制信息披露与市场反应研究——来自中国沪市上市公司的经验证据

本文以2006-2009年沪市A股上市公司为研究对象,实证考察了内部控制信息披露的市场反应。研究发现,从总体上看,我国上市公司内部控制信息披露具有明显的市场反应,但从不同侧面看,内部控制信息披露的市场反应存在显著差异:从披露内容看,内部控制有效引起股票价格上涨,而内部控制缺陷则引起股票价格下跌;从披露类型看,强制性披露较自愿性披露更具有价值相关性;从披露详略看,详细披露会引起股票价格上涨,而简单披露则不一定。此外,与单独的强制性披露或自愿性披露的市场反应相比,内部控制强制性披露和自愿性披露交互影响的市场反应更加显著。据此本文认为,在进一步加强强制性披露的日常监管的同时完善自愿性披露的激励政策,是当前规范我国上市公司内部控制信息披露行为和提高内部控制信息披露质量的关键。     

品牌需求价格弹性与市场份额的关系——对国内彩电行业的实证研究

本文运用log-log市场反应函数,对国内彩电行业中品牌市场份额对品牌价格弹性的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果发现,彩电品牌市场份额对其需求价格弹性绝对值有正向显著影响,这一结论明显区别于国外实证研究的结果,其原由反映了转型过程中国内彩电市场的基本特征。本文的结果及原因分析,对中国彩电企业的营销实践具有重要指导意义。     

VOLATILITY,LABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY,AND THE PATTERN OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

This paper studies the link between volatility, labor market flexibility, and international trade. International differences in labor market regulations affect how firms can adjust to idiosyncratic shocks. These institutional differences interact with sector specific differences in volatility (the variance of the firm‐specific shocks in a sector) to generate a new source of comparative advantage. Other things equal, countries with more flexible labor markets specialize in sectors with higher volatility. Empirical evidence for a large sample of countries strongly supports this theory: the exports of countries with more flexible labor markets are biased towards high‐volatility sectors. We show how differences in labor market institutions can be parsimoniously integrated into the workhorse model of Ricardian comparative advantage of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977, American Economic Review, 67, 823–839). We also show how our model can be extended to multiple factors of production.     

Information Frictions in Trade

It is costly to learn about market conditions elsewhere, especially in developing countries. This paper examines how such information frictions affect trade. Using data on regional agricultural trade in the Philippines, I first document a number of observed patterns in trade flows and prices that suggest the presence of information frictions. I then incorporate information frictions into a perfect competition trade model by embedding a process whereby heterogeneous producers engage in a costly sequential search process to determine where to sell their produce. I show that introducing information frictions reconciles the theory with the observed patterns in the data. Structural estimation of the model finds that information frictions are quantitatively important: roughly half the observed regional price dispersion is due to information frictions. Furthermore, incorporating information frictions improves the out‐of‐sample predictive power of the model.     

The impact of corporate sustainability performance on information asymmetry: the role of institutional differences

This paper empirically investigates whether corporate sustainability performance (CSP) affects information asymmetry (IA) for European firms listed in the STOXX Europe 600 from 2002 to 2013. We find a significantly negative effect of CSP on IA. By exploiting institutional differences between the European countries, we determine that the negative effect of CSP on IA is more pronounced in liberal market economies compared to coordinated market economies, thus pointing to a substitutive effect of CSP and economic coordination. Further, the impact is greater in countries with stricter disclosure requirements. In such countries, there is generally a greater appetite for company-specific information. However, disclosure requirements fulfil this need only partially because they concentrate on the corporate governance dimension of corporate sustainability. Hence, information on the social pillar especially matters to investors in a complementary manner and drives the overall effect. Our study contributes to the literature on the positive capital market effects of CSP by showing the proposed effect in European capital markets and the institutional determinants of its strength.     

“We open doors others do not!”: Position and power of foreign institutional networks

Foreign institutional actors (INAs) can act as a liaison between firms and authorities and other power players to navigate bureaucratic structures, both as resource and legitimacy providers in the host market. Building on institutional theory, this study draws from broader organizational sociological literature, to explore the structural position of INAs in a host country context, and engages with fundamental questions of legitimacy, status, and power. It responds to repeated calls that more studies in international business research are needed on the impact of institutional differences, how to obtain legitimacy, and enhance the home country support networks. To understand INAs' position, specifically within the social structure of a bureaucratic host environment, our study uses in-depth interviews with elite actors from the support networks. Japan is chosen for this study as a host market, because it is the European Union's second largest trading partner in Asia, has a strong central bureaucracy, and historically and currently remains a challenging market for Westerners due to complex market entry barriers. The findings provide a new theoretically derived empirical model demonstrating the positional leverage of these INAs, to “open-doors” into a complex environment and offer a nuanced understanding of their formal and informal structural positions of power. The findings also demonstrate a significant overlap between organizational legitimacy and the exemplary status of these INAs in the bureaucratic environment, which enhances and empowers their leverage to reach authorities, press, and other important actors in the market.     

REPATRIATION OF DEBT IN THE EURO CRISIS

With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long‐standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross‐border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the Euro area. We read these results in light of standard theories of cross‐border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt.     

长江三角洲区域市场一体化水平测度与进程分析

长三角区域经济一体化发展已上升为国家战略并已付诸实施。推进区域共同市场建设是长三角区域经济一体化发展的必然要求。有关指标测度结果表明,当前长三角地区商品市场一体化格局已基本形成,而要素市场的一体化却相对滞后。因此,加快推进长三角地区要素市场一体化建设应成为今后长三角区域经济一体化深化发展的关键环节。     

流动性供给与日内价格效率——基于中国股票市场的实证研究

本文基于中国A股市场高频交易数据从流动性供给的角度探究提高价格效率的途径，并结合信息交易和市场状态分析流动性供给与日内价格效率的关系。用短期收益的可预测程度来衡量价格效率，用逆势交易比例来衡量流动性供给水平，基于日内分时数据建立面板回归模型对流动性供给与价格效率之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明，提高流动性供给能够促进日内价格效率的改善，同时较高的机构交易比例和较低的价格波动对流动性供给与价格效率之间的关系有正向促进作用。研究结论对于提高价格效率，稳定和完善市场具有启示作用。     

欧式热率相关期权的定价

本文将含有电力的市场视为电力无法交易的不完全市场,利用Davis不完全市场定价理论给出了欧式热率相关期权的定价公式。在特殊电力价格模型下,得到了期权价格的解析解。     

基于Hawkes过程中美股市大幅波动互激效应的研究

近年来，由于中美经济联系日趋紧密，中美股票市场大幅波动的互激效应明显增强。本文考虑中美股市时差和法定节假日差异等因素，运用标值Hawkes过程对2006-2017年CSI300和S&P500大幅波动收益率数据进行建模，结果表明：（1）中美股市大幅波动互激效应存在不对称性，美股市场大幅波动对中国股市的互激效应更强；（2）中美股市大幅波动的幅度对互激效应不存在显著影响；（3）中美股票市场对于大幅波动互激效应的消化速度存在差异，中国股票市场消化美股大幅波动互激效应的速度较快。本研究对金融市场监管者和投资者均有一定意义。     

Verbot von Leerverkäufen in der Krise

During the recent financial and economic crisis political and corporate representatives demanded for stricter regulations of short sales to limit the risks of price manipulation and potential stock price crashes. In autumn 2008 regulators of most industrial countries decided to implement temporary short sale restrictions to prevent a further collapse of the capital market. While some countries restricted only naked short sales and increased their disclosure requirements, other markets like the USA and Great Britain implemented a full ban on short selling. The analysis of these two markets supports the hypothesis that temporary bans are unlikely to prevent or limit large price drops in the affected stocks. Instead the results suggest that the implemented emergency measures led to a temporary overvaluation of stock prices and to a deterioration of market efficiency. These results become even more prominent for stocks with high dispersion of investor opinion.     

出口供应安全及基础设施影响下的天然气进出口博弈

鉴于出口国时常出现天然气出口供应安全问题,进口国因基础设施滞后引发的天然气供需矛盾,考虑出口供应安全、基础设施与需求量三者之间的相互影响,文章构建了进出口两国之间的动态博弈模型。运用最优控制等理论,求得了双方的均衡策略及效用。结果表明,天然气出口价格越高,使得进口国的天然气销售价格越高及其对基础设施投入越少;出口国为保障出口供应安全付出的努力与天然气出口价格之间呈倒“U”型关系;与天然气寡头竞争市场相比,出口垄断市场的天然气出口价格、出口供应安全、基础设施存量以及出口国效用更高,进口国效用更低;在寡头竞争市场,与合作方式相比,两国在议价下的天然气出口价格、出口供应安全、基础设施存量以及出口国效用更高,进口国效用更低。     

The experience effect and pricing for agricultural products

It has been found that for a wide range of industrial products the unit prices and costs decrease by a constant percentage when production volume doubles—this is called the experience effect. This unit price behaviour is also observed for certain classes of basic agricultural products. As international market competition increases, price behaviour differences among countries may lead farmers, their organizations and governments to better understand what are the causes of the differences so that they can maintain and improve their competitive position internationally.     

天然气基础设施及储备影响下的进出口策略

基于天然气进口国实施天然气基础设施建设,出口国进行天然气储备的框架下,本文构建了两国关于天然气进出口的动态模型,并运用最优控制理论,求得了进口国的天然气销售价格、天然气基础设施投入以及出口国的天然气开采量等最优决策路径。结果表明,进口国的各最优决策路径均呈单调性变化收敛至最优稳态;当初始天然气基础设施存量与初始天然气储量均面临不足(过剩)时,出口国的最优决策路径在收敛至最优稳态的过程中可能不再呈单调性变化;进出口两国各决策的最优稳态水平均随天然气需求基础设施弹性的增加而增加;除最优稳态天然气销售价格随天然气出口价格上升而上升以外,其它决策的最优稳态水平均随其上升而下降;出口国最优稳态效用、进出口两国联合最优稳态效用均与天然气最优稳态出口价格呈倒"U"型关系,且前者达到最大值时的天然气出口价格高于后者。     

中国证券市场中Beta系数的存在性及其相关特性研究

本文认为,中国证券市场存在资本资产定价模型中描述的Beta系数,本文发现,使用不同市场收益率的算法计算出来的Beta系数有着显著的差异。因此,存在以不同的方法计算得到的Beta系数,在相同的研究过程中得出不相同的结果的情况可能会出现。本文的研究结果证实了这样一个事实:在中国证券市场,至少是在本文研究的时间区间段,CAPM模型是成立的。本文还发现,中国证券市场中Beta系数并不存在显著的行业差异,但是在按照是否被纳入计算成份类指数的标准将股票进行分类,即分为成份股和非成份股,这两大类股票的Beta系数存在显著的差异;本文还发现,在中国证券市场中,几乎不存在支持资本资产定价模型中的无风险收益率的参数。