不完全信息下基于双目标的博弈并购决策研究

建立复合实物期权模型,研究并购企业在竞争环境下满足收益最大化和并购成功概率最大化的并购决策问题。基于并购企业对竞争对手企业价值补偿值具有不完全信息的现实,运用实物期权博弈的方法,以企业期望价值收益最大化和成功并购概率最大化为目标,建立并购决策模型并求解最优并购时机,在此基础上进行并购决策分析,通过数值比较,得到并购企业的若干策略选择。研究结果表明,不完全信息下存在竞争的并购企业的期望收益小于完全垄断下的期望收益,即竞争因素削弱了并购的实物期权价值;并购企业在与对手企业进行并购博弈时,并购企业给目标企业的价值补偿越高,其最优并购时机越迟;不完全信息下若使并购企业期望收益最大的溢价比例不在溢价比例概率分布的区间内,则并购企业应取区间内的最大值,并购企业可以获得最大的期望收益和最大的成功并购概率;反之,使并购企业期望收益最大的溢价比例在概率分布内,企业取该溢价比例时可获得最大的期望收益,但企业需要在获得最大收益和增大成功并购概率之间权衡,当溢价比例取值越高时,并购时机越迟,所获收益也就越大。     

自建VS.并购:物流一体化竞争下的电商平台演化博弈

在竞争环境下，各大电商平台相继以自建或并购方式完成了自营物流系统的建设。文章立足于电商平台的物流一体化建设实践，以自建和并购作为电商平台构建物流体系的备选策略，首先采用逆序归纳法分别求得了两平台在均采取物流自建方案、均采取物流并购方案及一方采取物流自建方案而另一方采取物流并购方案时的均衡利润；然后，基于演化博弈理论，对不同均衡点的稳定性进行了分析；最后，得出了四种不同的演化稳定均衡结果。结果表明：（1）如果物流自建投入明显低于物流并购投入，且买家需求对竞争对手的物流服务不敏感时，两平台均将物流自建作为占优方案，从而双方的演化博弈将形成唯一的混同均衡——（物流自建，物流自建）。（2）如果物流并购投入明显低于物流自建投入，且买家需求对竞争对手的物流服务不敏感时，两平台均将物流并购作为占优方案，从而双方的演化博弈将形成唯一的混同均衡——（物流并购，物流并购）。（3）如果两种物流一体化方案的前期固定投入差异较小，且后期运营支出对物流服务水平不敏感，买家需求对对方平台的物流服务敏感时，两平台均无占优策略，而是采取与对手方案相同的物流一体化策略，使得双方的演化博弈形成两个混同均衡——（物流自建，物流自建）与（物流并购，物流并购）。（4）如果两种物流一体化方案的前期固定投入差异较小，且后期运营支出对物流服务水平不敏感，买家需求对对方平台的物流服务不敏感时，两平台均无占优策略，而是选择与对手方案相异的物流一体化策略，从而双方的演化博弈将形成两个分离均衡——（物流自建，物流并购）与（物流并购，物流自建）。     

企业并购决策临界点的期权博弈分析

运用期权博弈理论分析得出了各种信息条件下企业并购决策临界点模型.在不考虑竞争对手的条件下,企业的并购决策临界点取决于并购者和被并购者之间的期权博弈,即并购价值增加和成本增加之间的权衡;在考虑竞争对手的条件下,企业的并购决策临界点取决于并购企业与被并购企业之间、并购者之间的期权博弈,即价值增加、成本增加和风险率(hazard rate)三者间的权衡.最后通过仿真实验对以上各种分析结果进行了验证.     

在交易价值创造中,开发人员潜力

在公司拥有的所有资本和资源中,人仍然是最重要的资产。这在交易中也同样适用,因为投资者和企业从事交易是为了创造价值。在交易结束后,人员是执行交易的关键所在,将并购的战略理由与领导力、文化主导的组织行为,以及人才技能相结合是交易成功的关键。交易活跃多年来,全球许多地区持续的低增长环境鼓励企业通过收购寻求增长。随着企业寻求调整战略、加强业务以应对新冠疫情的不确定性,并购活动可能会增加。同时,随着竞争对手的增长,公司面临更大的压力,需要提高产品质量并降低价格以保持竞争优势。这种动机是高并购交易量的一个关键指标,也进一步解释为何要将巩固核心基础、发展临近业务和进入新市场作为并购的战略驱动力。     

产品市场竞争、资产专用性与上市公司横向并购

与以往通过资产专用性研究纵向一体化(纵向并购)的视角不同,文章以研发投入作为资产专用性的替代变量,研究在不同产品竞争市场环境下,资产专用性对横向并购行为与绩效的影响。研究发现,随着产品市场竞争程度和资产专用性的增加,上市公司横向并购的可能性呈现先升后降的特点;进一步研究发现,产品市场竞争程度越高,横向并购越有利于提升企业价值,尤其在高专用性资产投入的企业中更为显著。本研究为企业的并购和资产专用性投资决策提供了新的经验证据。     

白衣骑士策略下敌意并购竞价与时机研究

从目标企业往往引入白衣骑士来抵制敌意并购的实践出发,通过引入终止费协议构建白衣骑士策略下的动态竞争敌意并购模型,重点求解了均衡状态下竞价阶段的最优竞价策略,序贯博弈阶段白衣骑士的最优进入决策、目标企业的最优终止费策略和敌意并购方的初始报价策略,以及时机选择阶段敌意并购方的最优敌意并购时机。研究结果表明：(1)终止费同时降低了敌意并购方和白衣骑士的最优竞价,但并不会改变竞价结果,即并购协同系数最大的并购方获得目标企业所有权。(2)存在一个协同系数的临界值,当敌意并购方的协同系数高于该临界值时,敌意并购方进行抢占式报价,目标企业接受该报价;反之,敌意并购方不进行抢占式报价,目标企业与白衣骑士签订终止费协议,白衣骑士与敌意并购方竞争并购目标企业。(3)白衣骑士策略提高了协同系数临界值和抢占式报价,降低敌意并购方期望并购收益,推迟敌意并购时机,并在随机冲击较小时阻止具有正收益的敌意并购的发生。     

企业并购的风险类型及管理

在激烈的市场竞争中，企业只有不断地发展壮大，不断增强自身的核心竞争优势，才能在竞争中求得生存。通过企业并购，能够迅速扩展资本规模，且具有时效快、成本低、可消除竞争对手等优点。然而从企业并购的实践看，却有许多案例未能实现预期目的。本文通过对企业并购中的风险因素进行分析，同时结合案例研究，提出相应的风险管理措施。     

并购后控制与并购绩效的关系研究:基于合法性的调节效应

主并企业对被并企业的控制会影响并购绩效,而企业的各种利益相关者对于企业并购的态度即并购合法性会对并购后控制与并购绩效之间的关系产生影响。基于123个样本实证分析得到如下结论:主并企业对被并企业的非正式控制程度对主并企业的并购绩效具有显著积极作用,而正式控制程度与并购绩效之间没有显著相关性;并购的外部合法性对并购后正式控制与并购绩效之间的关系具有显著的正向调节作用,而并购的内部合法性对并购后非正式控制与并购绩效之间的关系具有显著的负向调节作用。研究结论对于中国企业的并购后决策以及如何实现并购目标具有理论指导价值。     

企业并购财务风险对策研究

随着经济全球化的发展，以及越来越完善的市场经济，并购被人们重视起来，企业并购对其财务框架会发生重大影响，相应带来财务风险：最佳资本结构的偏离，造成企业价值下降，财务风险高涨；杠杆效应使负债的财务杠杆效益和财务风险都相应放大；股利和债息政策也随负债的变化而变化。本文主要从企业并购的财务风险出发，分析引起企业在并购过程中存在财务风险的主要因素，针对这些问题提出解决方案。     

实物期权、动态能力与海外敌意并购:基于中钢并购澳大利亚中西部矿业的分析

以中钢集团敌意并购澳大利亚中西部矿业公司为案例研究对象,主张新兴跨国公司在进行海外敌意并购时,尽可能融合实物期权视角和动态能力视角来考虑问题.首先,新兴跨国公司应该尽量选择已经长期合作的、股权相对分散的企业作为并购目标.其敌意并购的时机选择主要考虑两方面的因素:一是目标企业估值的不确定性程度;二是竞争对手加入竞购的时间.此外,还要考虑到东道国政府、社会公众和目标企业管理层的反应,尽可能通过各种渠道将敌意并购转化成善意并购,以降低并购带来的负面影响.总之,只有将实物期权和动态能力2种理念进行完美的结合才能保证新兴跨国公司海外敌意并购的顺利实施.     

Understanding knowledge transfer in M&As: An integration of resource orchestration and social capital theories and evidence from UK acquiring firms

Whileknowledge transfer is one of the key components in determining Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) success, the current M&A literature has produced inconsistent findings regarding its antecedents and consequences. To address this research gap, this study explores the roles of functional integration and shared goals in facilitating knowledge transfer, which will in turn determine M&A success. To provide a more nuanced understanding of knowledge transfer, this study examines bilateral knowledge flows (e.g., knowledge transfer to a target firm from the UK acquiring firm and knowledge transfer from a target firm to the UK acquiring firm). Our research framework is built upon two different theoretical perspectives, namely resource orchestration and social capital theories. Our propositions were tested empirically across a sample of 131 UK cross-border M&A firms. Our results reveal that the affirmative roles of functional integration and shared goals in increasing knowledge transfer both to and from a target firm are confirmed and that knowledge transfer to the target firm is deemed decisive for M&A success. Based on the findings, we discuss theoretical and practical implications, followed by limitations and future study consideration.     

Does merger & acquisition (M&A) strategy matter? A contingency perspective

This paper takes a contingency approach to investigate whether there are market performance variations for different types of M&A. Eight different types of M&A are identified in a typology based upon the conjunction of three contextual dimensions: external environmental, acquiring firm level strategy and CEO motivation. Drawing upon a sample of 1,926 domestic UK deals we evaluate the typology to determine whether the financial markets distinguish between different types of M&A. Results indicate significant market and risk-adjusted performance differences by M&A type. These confirm that a contingency approach to M&A performance has merit. We suggest that the proposed integrated typology, that recognizes the importance of multiple aspects of strategic fit to M&A performance, addresses the paradox that M&A practitioners continue to pursue deals despite widespread acceptance that they result in high failure rates.     

基于二叉树期权模型的企业兼并价格确定的博弈分析

虽有研究对兼并标的资产价值服从连续随机分布情形下交易价格确定问题进行了讨论,但对离散随机分布情形下交易价格确定问题的讨论不够深入,这就不仅仅使得研究与实践相互脱节,更降低了研究对现实的解释力。现在对一类标的资产价值服从二叉树离散分布情形下交易价格问题进行研究,运用实物期权理论和博弈论的研究方法对标的价值评估与交易价格确定分别进行了讨论。研究运用中心极限定理分析了标的资产价值呈现二叉树特征,并且存在无限次上涨与下降状态情形下实物期权的极限分布。然后在对著名的Rubinstein讨价还价定理进行改进的基础上,给出了离散二叉树分布情形下的标的资产交易价格确定的解析表达式。最后,通过数值仿真揭示不同参数变化所引起的交易价格变化趋势,从而进一步说明模型的合理性和对现实的解释力。     

Alternative forms of charismatic leadership in the integration of mergers and acquisitions

It is becoming increasingly clear that post-merger and acquisition (M&A) performance, especially in terms of achieving the integration of merging firms, is strongly affected by organizational factors, such as leadership. This paper presents a theoretical model showing how alternative forms of charismatic leadership can be relevant to the implementation of M&As. A unique aspect of our conceptualization is that we recognize the distinction between charismatic leaders with more of a personalized versus socialized power motive, the behaviors emanating from each respective type, and likelihood of resulting effects on the post-combination organization of an M&A. We also propose that personalized charisma will result in an absorption strategy and accompanying stress, resistance to change, and turnover that vary in degree between acquiring and acquired firms. Conversely, socialized charisma will result in collaborative vision-formation and decision-making processes that will ultimately achieve transformation in both of the combining firms. We further argue that absorption strategies can result in effective integration of the target firm into the acquiring firm when the pre-merger condition of the former is unfavorable.     

来源国劣势与合法化战略——新兴经济企业跨国并购的案例研究

新兴经济体企业在跨国并购中如何根据不同类型来源国劣势来做出合法化战略选择?通过对吉利和万向六次跨国并购的多案例分析,本文打破现有文献关于"来自相同国家的企业面临相似来源国劣势"这一"同质化假定",把来源国劣势构念化为制度维和产品维。通过归纳式案例研究,本文发现,对于产品维的来源国劣势,新兴经济体企业倾向于通过组织制度设计、资源协同和声誉重构等合法性修复战略进行应对。对于制度维的来源国劣势,新兴经济体企业倾向于采用制度遵从、组织制度设计、资源协同等合法性获取战略来应对。当面临产品维和制度维双重劣势时,新兴经济体企业综合运用制度遵从、组织制度设计、资源协同、声誉重构等合法性获取和合法性修复战略,重点强调沟通协调这一合法性维持战略来应对。这些发现贡献于新兴经济体企业在跨国并购,乃至于更广意义国际化的文献,并对中国企业跨国并购过程有一定的启示意义。     

社会责任的信号作用——基于中国市场的研究

承担社会责任能否提升未来公司绩效一直是国内外学者关注的焦点，大部分研究认为履行社会责任有助于提升公司未来绩效，将社会责任视为一种价值投资。在控制了当期绩效因素对企业承担社会责任的影响后，本文发现：（1）承担社会责任不能提升公司未来财务绩效，仅能对企业未来股票回报产生正向影响；（2）当期经济绩效较好的企业，社会责任会对未来财务绩效产生正向影响，而当期经济绩效较差的企业，社会责任会对未来财务绩效产生负向影响。文章结果表明：当期绩效较差公司承担社会责任存在更大成本，当期绩效较好公司可以通过履行社会责任向市场传达信号使其与当期绩效较差公司区分，但此信号行为本身不对公司绩效存在影响。早期研究发现社会责任与未来公司财务绩效的正向关系很可能是因未考虑当期公司绩效同时正向影响当期公司社会责任履行程度和未来财务绩效而产生的伪相关关系。本文实证结果一定程度上对现有社会责任促进公司绩效的理论分析框架构成了挑战。     

用户-企业共享价值诉求与企业创新能力关系研究——以顾客授权为中介

企业吸纳用户参与创新过程，是构建并提升创新能力的重要途径。但作为外部创新源，用户参与创新虽然将价值创造与价值消费形成闭环，却以企业开放创新过程为条件，这加剧了创新过程的复杂性，也使用户参与提升企业创新能力的内在机理难以洞悉。基于价值共创理论、用户创新理论与创新能力理论，本文从企业方面探索如何吸纳用户参与创新过程进而提升创新能力的内在规律。基于202份国内企业样本，首先探索了用—企共享的价值诉求构念内涵与结构。在此基础上，以"动机构建→授权导引→能力发展"为脉络研究价值共创视角下企业创新能力提升机理。发现：（1）用户参与的社会性价值预期能够有效提升企业二元性创新能力；（2）用—企共享的独异价值预期（功能性价值）能够有效提升企业渐进性创新能力；（3）顾客授权在"用—企"共享的社会性价值诉求与渐进性创新能力之间起到局部中介的作用。     

Exploiting Technological Indicators for Effective Technology Merger and Acquisition (M&A) Predictions

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) play increasingly important roles for contemporary business, especially in high‐tech industries that conduct M&As to pursue complementarity from other companies and thereby preserve or extend their competitive advantages. The appropriate selection (prediction) of M&A targets for a given bidder company constitutes a critical first step for an effective technology M&A activity. Yet existing studies only employ financial and managerial indicators when constructing M&A prediction models, and select candidate target companies without considering the profile of the bidder company or its technological compatibility with candidate target companies. Such limitations greatly restrict the applicability of existing studies to supporting technology M&A predictions. To address these limitations, we propose a technology M&A prediction technique that encompasses technological indicators as independent variables and accounts for the technological profiles of both bidder and candidate target companies. Forty‐three technological indicators are derived from patent documents and an ensemble learning method is developed for our proposed technology M&A prediction technique. Our evaluation results, on the basis of the M&A cases between January 1997 and May 2008 that involve companies in Japan and Taiwan, confirm the viability and applicability of the proposed technology M&A prediction technique. In addition, our evaluation also suggests that the incorporation of the technological profiles and compatibility of both bidder and candidate target companies as predictors significantly improves the effectiveness of relevant predictions.     

The effect of board size on shareholder value: Evidence from bank mergers and acquisitions

This study examines the effect of board size on the economic impact of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the US. Using a hand-collected dataset of 508 M&A between 2012 and 2018, we find that board size is negatively related to acquirer excess returns. In an additional analysis, we show that large boards have positive value implications for banks that combine the CEO and chairman roles as well as for large banks. Our findings indicate that a “one-size-fits-all” approach to board size is not necessarily in the interests of shareholders; instead, a more flexible and proactive formulation is needed.     

Strategically valuable resources and capabilities and successful M&A: a dyadic perspective

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are most popular external growth strategies. While the number of M&A has been increasing during the past decades, on average, only the shareholders of target firms gain value during the acquisition process, while acquirers do not receive abnormal positive returns. This paper analyses the impact of strategically valuable resources and capabilities on the success of M&A decisions. We test complementary resource-based hypotheses regarding the value of M&A for the shareholders of both transaction partners. Our sample consists of transactions in the pharmaceutical and biotechnological industry. The results of our study show that the shareholders of both transaction partners will gain above average positive returns only when the acquirer and the target own and combine strategically valuable resources and capabilities.