产业转型企业战略柔性优化模型研究

战略演进的路径依赖特征往往会导致企业产业转型的失败,而以战略柔性为基础的动态竞争优势体系对于推进企业转型具有促进作用.但是,若一味地追求战略柔性,则有可能使企业陷入"柔性陷阱".为此,本文构建了环境不确定性和战略柔性水平的测度指标体系,提出了相应的匹配模型,将战略柔性与环境不确定性进行比较与匹配,以优化转型企业战略柔性配置.实现战略柔性的供需平衡.     

高新技术企业财务管理柔性研究

从系统的角度分析了高新技术企业财务管理的特点和不确定性,在此基础上提出了高新技术企业财务管理柔性的概念,构建了财务管理柔性、柔性净效益及其变动幅度的度量方法,运用预控图原理对财务管理柔性进行动态监控。应用实例表明,该方法易于操作,为财务管理柔性评价奠定了基础。     

浅谈不确定环境中的战略柔性及其对企业财务管理的影响

战略柔性是企业以内部结构的可调整性和变革性应对环境变化的能力,是战略管理领域的新视点,企业环境的动态性与不确定性是战略柔性研究的外部环境背景。适应柔性组织自身的特点,完善财务激励与约束机制,提高财务管理的效率,是当前财务管理研究的一个重要课题。     

构建高层管理团队社会网络的人力资源实践、战略柔性与企业绩效——环境不确定性的调节作用

本文首次将战略柔性作为一种典型的动态能力运用到战略人力资源管理的研究领域中,探索了其在构建高层管理团队(TMT)社会网络的人力资源实践与企业绩效关系中所扮演的中介作用,并且基于我国经济转型这一现实背景,采用环境不确定性作为该中介环节的调节变量予以进一步阐释.我们对上述问题进行了实证检验,通过对北京、天津、上海、江苏和浙江等地区390家企业的780名高管进行问卷调查,最终获得241个有效样本,研究发现:(1)构建TMT社会网络的人力资源实践对企业绩效具有正向影响,并且战略柔性在其中发挥了完全中介的作用;(2)环境不确定性在构建TMT社会网络的人力资源实践与战略柔性的关系中具有调节作用,但在战略柔性与企业绩效的关系中不具有调节作用.本文的研究结论表明,考虑战略柔性和环境不确定性这两个重要因素可以更好地解释构建TMT社会网络的人力资源实践对企业绩效的影响机制,这为战略人力资源管理在动态环境中的发展和应用提供了重要启示.     

企业战略柔性效用机理及其决策模型研究

采用Makadok理性期望模型分析了战略柔性在提供信息、降低运营成本等方面对竞争优势的作用机理,及其与组织资源在创造竞争优势过程中的关系;在此基础上,以不确定性环境下市场需求作为随机变量,构建了企业略柔性水平决策模型.     

企业动态能力及其功效:环境不确定性的影响

当前关于动态能力的维度及其功效还存在较大分歧,有些学者甚至认为动态能力毫无价值,应该摒弃动态能力研究.本文从战略过程视角,依据相关文献与访谈调查,将动态能力分解为组织意会能力、柔性决策能力及动态执行能力,探讨了动态能力与持续优势的关系及环境不确定性在其中的影响作用.通过对中国地区217家企业的实证研究发现,动态能力确实对持续优势有显著的正向影响,环境不确定性是动态能力的驱动因素而非调节变量,环境动态性对企业持续优势有显著的正向影响,敌对性则对持续优势有显著的负向影响.本研究的结论澄清了动态能力的价值前提,探明了环境不确定性的影响机理,对理论研究与实践操作都有一定的启发意义.     

不同环境下的供应链运作柔性的绩效研究

在对供应链运作柔性相关研究的评述基础上,区分物流分销柔性和需求管理柔性两个维度。收集有关制造商柔性和绩效的212份有效问卷,验证需求管理柔性在物流分销柔性与关系满意度之间的中介作用,利用以调节回归分析和有条件的非线性回归模型为基础的调节路径分析,深入、全面地探讨环境不确定性在这一中介关系中的调节作用。研究结果表明,在不确定的环境中,物流分销柔性对关系满意度的直接作用更强;在稳定的环境中,需求管理柔性对关系满意度的直接作用更强;物流分销柔性对关系满意度的总作用不受外部环境影响。因此,同时提高两种柔性显然会提高关系满意度,但是单独调整其中任意一种柔性都要首先考虑外部环境。     

实物期权在企业信息化项目投资决策中的应用

企业信息化项目投资具有高不确定性、经营柔性等特点,采用传统的投资决策评价方法存在一定局限,而企业信息化项目投资与实物期权特点相似,因此运用实物期权方法能更好地衡量信息化项目投资的效应和价值,同时为企业信息化项目投资提供有益的参考。     

政策生命周期视角下产业政策不确定性与企业创新质量关系研究

产业扶持政策是我国促进企业创新的重要手段之一，其不确定性会对微观企业创新决策造成巨大冲击。本文采用2008—2017年中国A股上市公司数据，考察了产业政策不确定性对企业创新质量的影响以及企业财务柔性的调节作用。研究发现：产业政策变更不确定性会激励企业创新质量，而产业政策执行不确定性会抑制企业创新质量；在此过程中，企业财务柔性具有正向调节作用，且相比于负债柔性，现金柔性起到主导调节作用。影响机制分析表明：企业的政策不确定性感知与融资约束是产业政策不确定性影响企业创新质量的核心传导机制。进一步分析发现：相比于中低质量创新，产业政策变更不确定性对高质量创新的激励效应更强，而产业政策执行不确定性对高质量创新的抑制效应更弱。研究可以为深入理解政策不确定性对企业创新决策的负外部性提供新的经验证据，也为企业应对政策不确定性冲击以及政府优化产业政策制定与执行提供决策参考。     

不同环境下的供应链运作柔性的绩效相同吗？

在对供应链柔性相关的文献综述基础上,区分了物流分销柔性和需求管理柔性两个维度。通过所收集的有关制造商柔性和绩效的212份有效问卷,首先验证了需求管理柔性在物流分销柔性和关系满意度之间的中介作用,然后利用调节回归分析(MRA)和有条件的非线性回归模型(CNLR)为基础的调节路径分析(MPA),深入和全面的探讨了环境不确定性在这一中介关系中的调节作用。结果显示,在不确定的环境中,物流分销柔性对关系满意度的直接作用更强;而在稳定的环境中,需求管理柔性对关系满意度的直接作用更强。此外,物流分销柔性对关系满意度的总作用不受外部环境影响。因此,同时提高两种柔性显然会提高关系满意度,但是单独调整其中任意一个都需要首先考虑外部环境。     

Distribution Channel Network and Relational Performance: The Intervening Mechanism of Adaptive Distribution Flexibility

Network theories argue that organizations can enjoy information and control benefits from the network in which they are embedded. Focusing on distribution channel networks with strong, prominent, and central ties, this article argues that distribution flexibility, composed of logistics and relationship flexibility, is a response to environmental uncertainty that mediates the effect of channel network embeddedness on relationship performance. Results show that logistics flexibility and relationship flexibility fully mediate the effect of channel network embeddedness on relationship satisfaction, but that only relationship flexibility mediates the effect of channel network embeddedness on long‐term relationship orientation. Furthermore, not only is the effect of tie strength on logistics flexibility stronger in an uncertain environment, but relationship flexibility also decreases as the congruence between uncertainty and tie strength increases, suggesting a complex higher‐order contingency model.     

战略性转移定价承诺策略下的供应商选择柔性研究

在上游供应商的战略性转移定价承诺策略与下游制造商投资创新决策之间存在着交互作用,笔者将静态环境下的这种交互作用与不同柔性层次下的动态供应网络架构相结合,以供应链路径柔性为切入点,基于承诺的交货提前期、投资创新、产量与供应链收益等供应链绩效维度来探讨战略性转移定价承诺策略下的供应链合作模式相关话题。考虑到AM_j在不同CS_#em/em#之间进行选择的柔性化特征,笔者至少得到如下三个方面的结论:首先,供应网络架构柔性是供应链整体及其各节点企业获取绩效改善的重要途径,与没有柔性相比,完全柔性和部分柔性情形下的供应链绩效均能得到明显改善,而其中又以完全柔性优势最为突出;其次,虽然部分柔性是供应网络架构中较为可行的柔性层次选择,但是,其与完全柔性一样,容易产生供应网络资源的供给与需求失衡现象;第三,不确定性情境下的一体化决策与确定性情境下的转移定价承诺决策对供应链利润绩效所产生的影响取决于供应网络柔性层次以及供应网络节点企业各自的能力特点,进而对供应链整体及其各节点的合作模式和行为取向起着主导作用。     

基于模糊信息熵的环境管理过程控制能力

建立了环境管理过程的闭环过程控制系统模型,用模糊控制系统表达环境管理过程中的不确定性,分析了环境管理过程的控制能力,建立了过程控制能力函数。将信息熵引入模糊环境过程控制函数的参数识别,建立了环境管理过程度量方法。同时,建立了环境管理过程决策支持系统,以实现环境管理过程的参数识别和能力评估。     

挑战与出路:东西方管理智慧整合的方法论探索

未来管理世界的基本特征是不确定性、模糊性、复杂性以及快变性。这一特征给组织管理带来巨大挑战:管理目标制定困难,管理机制设计不完备,管理操作过程难以设计,人的行为无法控制。东西方管理中应对上述挑战的智慧体现了不同的哲学和逻辑思路,二者之间具有互补性,如能有效整合可更好地应对挑战。基于近年来出现的二元型组织研究思路,运用和谐管理理论的基本思想,提出一套系统的方法论来整合东西方已有管理智慧和理论,为未来管理研究与实践提供了应对挑战的新思路。     

Uncertainty,flexibility and buffers in the management of the firm operating system

The role that buffers can assume in the management of uncertain situations that can occur in industrial firms is demonstrated. An outline is provided of the various types of buffers with regard to different types of uncertainty faced and to the characteristics of the production system. Although the prevalent scholarly trend is to evaluate buffers as factors which uselessly increase the complexity of the firms operating systems, this work tries to analyse the contributions they offer to the management process. Buffers are considered as alternative and complementary factors to technological flexibility. Technological flexibility is often considered the only competitive means able to face both external and internal uncertainties. The choice to use or not use buffers as a complementary resource or as an alternative to technological flexibility, depends on a comparison of the cost-benefits of the two solutions     

Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood-Based Approaches

Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrap simulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasets include a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and a sample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe any point within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5–19 data points as in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.     

Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory

Safety systems are important components of high-consequence systems that are intended to prevent the unintended operation of the system and thus the potentially significant negative consequences that could result from such an operation. This presentation investigates and illustrates formal procedures for assessing the uncertainty in the probability that a safety system will fail to operate as intended in an accident environment. Probability theory and evidence theory are introduced as possible mathematical structures for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty associated with the performance of safety systems, and a representation of this type is illustrated with a hypothetical safety system involving one weak link and one strong link that is exposed to a high temperature fire environment. Topics considered include (1) the nature of diffuse uncertainty information involving a system and its environment, (2) the conversion of diffuse uncertainty information into the mathematical structures associated with probability theory and evidence theory, and (3) the propagation of these uncertainty structures through a model for a safety system to obtain representations in the context of probability theory and evidence theory of the uncertainty in the probability that the safety system will fail to operate as intended. The results suggest that evidence theory provides a potentially valuable representational tool for the display of the implications of significant epistemic uncertainty in inputs to complex analyses.     

Simultaneous Inference for Model Averaging of Derived Parameters

Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous inference for derived parameters calculated in an after‐fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model‐averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family‐wise Type I error rate. The performance of the method in terms of coverage is evaluated using a simulation study and the applicability of the method is demonstrated by means of three concrete examples.