Lottery pricing under time pressure

This article investigates how subjects determine minimum selling prices for lotteries. We design an experiment where subjects have at every moment an incentive to state their minimum selling price and to adjust the price, if they believe that the price that they stated initially was not optimal. We observe frequent and sizeable price adjustments. We find that random pricing models cannot explain the observed price patterns. We show that earlier prices contain information about future price adjustments. We propose a model of Stochastic Pricing that offers an intuitive explanation for these price adjustment patterns.     

Revisiting the residential electricity demand in the United States: A dynamic partial adjustment modelling approach

In recent years, price policies and price changes derived from environmental regulations have played a more important role to promote residential energy conservation. Using recent annual state-level panel data for 48 states, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model for electricity demand elasticities on price and income in the residential sector. Our analysis reveals that in the short run, one unit price increase will lead to 0.142 unit of reduction in electricity use after controlling for the endogeneity of electricity price. Thus, raising energy price in the short run will not give consumers much incentive to adjust their appliances to reduce electricity use. However, in the long run, one unit price increase will lead to almost one unit consumption reduction, ceteris paribus. In addition, we find new evidence that for states of higher per capita GDP, raising the electricity price may be more effective to ensure a cut in consumption.     

Asking Price and Price Discounts: The Strategy of Selling an Asset Under Price Uncertainty

We consider fixed and asking price strategies in the context of selling an asset with Bernoullian updating of the seller’s subjective probability of sale at a given price. The determination of optimal fixed, asking and endogenous reservation prices is discussed under risk-neutrality and expected utility maximisation. With risk-neutrality, the optimal asking price exceeds the optimal fixed price when the expected gain is a strictly concave function. The seller’s choice between the fixed and the asking price strategies depends on several factors: the expected cost of haggling, price competition and the seller’s attitude towards risk.     

商品社会使用价值与市场价格规律论

现代经济理论的两大体系 ,都对价格的有关理论做出了说明。有一种说法 ,把马克思主义经济学的劳动价值论与当代西方主流经济学派的供求论综合起来 ,就应当可以得到较为完美的价格理论。但这是不可能的。解决问题的出路 ,只能是按马克思主义经济学的内在逻辑 ,深入研究商品的使用价值 ,通过商品价值和使用价值对商品价格做出完整的说明 ,同时破解在供求与价值决定上的相互循环论证 ,发展以劳动价值为基础的价格理论。商品的使用价值 ,具有自然使用价值和社会使用价值两重属性。商品的社会使用价值深刻地反映着商品交换的经济关系 ,由自然使用价值等一系列因素决定。商品社会使用价值 ,在量上最终表现为某一商品的社会需求量与生产供给量的比率 ,在不同的条件下具有不同的值。商品的市场价格 ,由商品价值或其转化形式与商品社会使用价值共同决定。社会使用价值比价值或其转化形式更复杂、更多样、更易变 ,是市场价格变化的主导因素。社会使用价值为 1的市场价格 ,即是市场均衡价格。所谓市场价格围绕商品价值或其转化形式上下波动 ,实质上应是围绕市场均衡价格上下波动。调节市场供求关系的根本因素 ,表面上看是商品价格 ,而实质上是市场供求的相互作用。     

2006年国际油价预测及对以后走势的判断

预测国际油价是世界各国难以割舍的课题和研究的热点问题之一。2005年国际油价走势远远超出较为合理的域值范围;影响2005年国际油价上涨的原因很多,但影响国际油价的因素主要是:经济增长、欧佩克生产能力、非欧佩克生产能力、石油需求量、天然气价格、煤价、石油消费弹性系数、欧佩克供求差额、非欧佩克供求差额、库存等;同时,在确定国际油价预测模型的基础上,对2006-2010年国际油价走势进行判断。     

Should policymaking account for market expectations? An estimate of their impact on commodity policy

Costs and effects of commodity price stabilization will depend on private price expectations, and these price expectations do respond to changes in public policy. Past empirical studies assumed that price expectations did not incorporate policy constraints on price. The following article examines the implications of correcting this weakness in earlier studies. Substantial differences in estimates of stabilization con result from this improvement in methodology.     

新时期我国价格波动的主要影响因素及发展趋势

"十一五"期间我国主要价格指数均呈现出较快上升后快速回落的特点,但与上世纪八九十年代相比,我国价格波动趋于平缓,价格波动的影响因素也在发生变化:农副产品和资源性产品价格对价格总水平的影响加大,国际传导因素日益突出。随着我国主要农产品、资源性产品对国际市场依赖程度的进一步提高,国际市场初级产品价格波动加剧,"十二五"我国价格水平将呈现"前低后高,温和上涨"的趋势。     

北京市住宅价格决定因素分析与政策思考

本文借助Hedonic模型对北京市住宅价格的决定因素进行了研究,发现区位、地铁、入住时间、方向等因素对于住宅价格具有显著影响,而房屋类型和容积率等不具有显著影响。本项研究还对北京市房价"北高南低"的特征给出了定量的描述,并对北京住宅建设问题提出了几点政策建议。     

高房价背后的制度缺失

本文分析了我国土地制度、住房供给体制和住宅金融体制的缺失,试图从一个新视角来剖析房价上涨过快的制度因素,并在此基础上提出建立长效机制的政策建议。     

论社会主义市场经济条件下的价格工作

国家宏观调控下主要由市场形成价格的机制已经成为我国的基本价格制度,但在充分发挥价格机制的作用,与国际价格接轨等方面尚存不是.应进一步解放思想,转变观念,坚持市场经济体制改革方向,进一步深化价格改革.要加强调查研究、分析预测,转变价格工作职能,改进价格工作方式方法,加快与国际市场接轨的步伐.     

股票市场非流通股全流通价格的选择与比较

中国股票市场流通制度的缺陷是市场系统性风险的根源所在 ,出路在于股票市场非流通股的全流通。全流通成功的关键在于合理确定全流通的股票价格。以预期每股收益为基础的全流通价格理论依据在于公司的资产价值而不是企业价值 ,企业价值不在于资产值多少钱 ,而在于这些资产每年能创造出多少利润。以数据的形式 ,从投资的公平与效率的角度 ,对非流通股全流通价格选择的净资产定价和每股收益定价进行了分析与比较。提出应以净资产值作为非流通股全流通的定价基础 ,以净资产配售方式逐步解决非流通股全流通问题。     

Inflation,oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect

This paper aims to analyse the relationship between the euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices and examine what effect this relationship had on the transmission of oil price fluctuations to headline inflation in the euro area since the currency’s creation. We estimate an augmented Phillips curve including changes in oil price, through which we study the role of the exchange rate in oil price pass-through by using different specifications. The main findings reveal a positive relationship between the euro/dollar exchange rate and oil prices, such that an increase in the price of oil is followed by an appreciation in the euro. We also find that the transmission of oil price fluctuations to headline inflation in the euro area has been partially dampened by this appreciation in the euro/dollar exchange rate. These results do not hold for other economies with internationally relevant currencies, such as Japan and the United Kingdom. These findings have important implications for the implementation of monetary policy in the euro area in the face of oil price shocks.     

北京市土地供应计划与土地市场交易现状分析

编制土地年度供应计划有利于政府对房地产行业进行调控,土地市场交易现状既受制于土地供应计划又对其有反作用。本文基于北京市2008年全年及2009年(截至6月26日)最新土地市场交易数据,利用地理信息系统技术及统计分析方法,研究交易地块空间分布特征及平均成交地价、平均楼面地价、成交价与底价比值等变化趋势,发现空间上北京中东南部交易地块成交价与底价比值较大,时间上2008年初及2009年五六月份交易地块成交价与底价比值最大,规划用途上住宅用地交易地块成交价与底价比值最大。在金融危机大背景下,房地产行业极易出现泡沫,制定土地供应计划时应进一步加大保障性住房用地的供给。     

Economics of (oil) price politics: Penalizing price changes

This article studies intertemporal monopolistic pricing strategies when demand is dynamic and when price volatility may harm other producer objectives, e.g. the political good will for an international cartel. The major implications from this framework are that the introduction of a penalty for price changes may actually change an otherwise (at least locally) monotonic policy into a (transiently) oscillatory strategy; on the other hand, penalizing price changes smooths the price policy when demand is convex and the optimal strategy would otherwise be extremely volatile. But, then, all various types of solutions—cyclical and even unstable solutions—may occur.     

辩证看待社会主义市场经济的代价

从社会主义市场经济的追求目标、运用手段、价值主体及发展过程看,代价的产生有其客观必然性。同时,代价的产生与作为主体的人在思想、行为上的局限性和主观失误密切相关。社会主义市场经济的代价分为必要性代价和人为性代价,我们应客观地承认社会主义市场经济中代价的存在,并用发展的眼光看待它,正确把握社会主义市场经济代价的度,把必然性代价控制在最小范围内,减少或避免人为性代价的产生,使社会主义市场经济体制能顺利建成。     

劳动价值论与均衡价格理论之比较研究

马克思的劳动价值论和西方均衡价格理论既有明显区别 ,又不乏相同之处。只有在劳动价值论的基础上 ,强调供求对价格的决定作用 ,才能科学地解释各种经济现象。在市场经济条件下 ,应建立一种既反映商品价值 ,又反映供求关系的灵敏的价格机制     

我国资源价格重构的理论思考与机制探讨

要推进经济增长方式转型,资源价格重构势在必行。文章首先归纳了资源价格扭曲的内外症状,并剖析了症结和危害;认为就整体而言,价格重构应侧重于矫正内部扭曲;就结构而言,只能定位于部分地消除资源内外比价的失调;基于可持续发展视角下对资源价值及其构成的理论探讨,既剖析了我国资源价格扭曲的实质,又深入探讨了资源价格的基本改革图景;最后,从理论上指出了边际机会成本定位法的严重不足,强调我国资源价格重构应该采取现实可行的"实际补偿顺推法",并立足全局,给出了对策建议。     

感受腾飞:中国理论创新走在世界前面

中国已经进入工业化腾飞阶段的第5年了,我们需要在理论上对此有准确的认识。这样,我们才能做到认识与实践相统一,才能比较自觉地应对现实的高增长。在中国工业化腾飞阶段的初期,出现激烈的价格上涨,是市场客观的价格调整要求。我们不要将这种涨价误认为是通货膨胀,不要用通货膨胀预期的恐怖来宣扬腾飞阶段涨价的预期效果。中国的工业化是在新技术革命的导引下逐步走向腾飞。中国的工业化腾飞就是世界经济新的腾飞。中国的工业化腾飞将引领世界进入新的时代。     

State Growth Management and Housing Prices*

Objective. In the United States, growth regulations aimed at environmental protection and better‐quality urban areas have become very popular since the 1960s. Although many studies have examined the housing‐price effects of local and regional growth management regulations, none has examined the effects of a state law. Past research has also tended to be cross‐sectional, rather than longitudinal, and has frequently ignored alternate hypotheses that could explain housing‐price trends. The research presented in this article examines the housing‐price effects of Florida's Growth Management Act of 1985. Methods. Using secondary source data from all 67 counties of the state for the period 1980–1995 and employing pooled time‐series analysis techniques I test the hypothesis that the Act had an inflationary effect on single‐family house prices. Results. After controlling for alternate hypotheses such as population, income, and size of house, I find a statistically significant increase in the price of single‐family houses attributable to statewide growth management. Also, the demand‐side and supply‐side price inflationary effects of growth management are similar in magnitude. Conclusions. Since higher housing prices could become the Achilles heel of growth management programs and thwart their implementation, I suggest a few ways some of the price inflationary effects may be reduced.     

我国药价虚高现象的三重因素分析——信息不对称、委托代理与需求价格弹性

近年来,药品价格虚高已成为社会热点问题之一。看病贵、住房贵、上学贵已成为压在人们身上的新的"三座大山"。本文试从医患、药患和政府对药价的制定和监管三个方面的信息不对称,医患之间、医药之间的委托代理关系,和药品的需求价格弹性三重因素来分析我国目前药价虚高的现象,并提出相应对策。