经济快速增长背景下长江经济带GDP与“三废”排量响应关系分析

选取1990年代以来长江经济带环境污染和经济增长的主要指标进行分析,结果表明：人均GDP与工业＂三废＂、SO2排放量之间均呈四次曲线关系,不符合典型的EKC;工业废气总量和SO2排放量曲线都呈近似于＂倒U型＂EKC的左半部分,前者没有转折迹象,后者则表现出转折的迹象;工业废水排放量曲线近似于＂正U型＂与＂倒U型＂的叠加,且波动变化平缓;工业固体废物排放量曲线近似于＂倒U型＂EKC的右半部分,但呈现回升迹象;政府有关政策措施与环境质量改善的关系密切。     

The impact of adult and non-adult mortality on development: Two centuries evidence from a panel of industrial countries

This study examines the effects of adult and non-adult mortality on the long-run level of income in a heterogeneous dynamic and cross-sectionally dependent panel. Employing data for 20 countries between 1800 and 2010, it is found that (i) while non-adult mortality has no long-run effect on GDP per capita, reductions in adult mortality lead to statistically and economically significant increases in the long-run level of per capita income; (ii) there are no significant differences in the long-run effects of adult mortality and non-adult mortality on GDP per capita before and after the onset of the demographic transition; and (iii) mortality in middle adulthood has the greatest impact on economic development, whereas early adulthood mortality and mortality in later adulthood have little to no impact on the long-run level of per capita income.     

二十一世纪中国经济周期平稳化现象研究(英文)

本文的目的在于回答两个问题：第一，21世纪中国经济周期平稳化的原因何在？第二，21世纪中国经济波动的来源何在？利用统计分析和构造的多方程结构宏观经济模型，我们发现第一个问题的答案几乎完全在于国内因素，包括国内需求冲击的稳定和信贷市场中的自稳定机制；就第二个问题而言，21世纪中国经济波动的最大来源在于国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击——前者对GDP的波动影响较大，而后者则更多地影响CPI。本文的另一个发现是，传统的盯住货币供应量的货币政策对稳定GDP和CPI几乎没有效果。本文的政策建议之一是，在全球危机的背景下，稳定总需求的国内经济刺激政策依然很重要。本文的另一个建议是，为了摆脱全球化的负面影响，我们需要更加依靠城市化而非工业化，并在国内调整各个区域的经济角色。     

上海市经济发展与环境质量演进关系实证研究

论文选取90年代以来上海市经济增长和环境污染的主要指标,通过构建计量经济多元回归模型,重点分析了工业人均GDP与工业＂三废＂、烟尘、COD排放量变化间的关系以及人均GDP与生活废气、烟尘、废水排放量变化间的关系。结果表明：经济增长与工业生产和生活产生的污染物排放量之间均呈三次曲线的关系,且不符合典型的EKC;全市工业废气排放量曲线近似于＂倒U＂型EKC左半部分,没有转折迹象,而工业烟尘排放量曲线近似于＂倒U＂型EKC的右半部分,不断减小,相对于工业,生活废气和烟尘排放量曲线呈现＂正U＋倒U＂变化趋势,波动明显;工业废水和COD排放量曲线近似于＂倒U＂型EKC右半部分,但COD排放量有回升迹象,与此相对,生活废水排放量曲线则近似于＂倒U＂型EKC左半部分,增速明显;工业固体废弃物排放量曲线近似于＂倒U＂型EKC左半部分,呈现出平稳上升的趋势。     

Immigration,terrorism, and the economy

In this paper, we look at the interaction of terrorism with immigrants’ quality of life (measured by the foreign-born unemployment rate and globalization level) for OECD countries, and its impact on GDP per capita. We find strong evidence that GDP per capita is adversely affected by domestic terrorism. The magnitude of this effect is also substantial: at the sample mean, a one-standard-deviation increase in the number of domestic incidents is found to decrease GDP per capita between 5.7 % and 7.8 % of the sample average depending on the specification used. These results contrast with previous research which finds that transnational terrorism primarily affects these economic indicators. We find strong evidence that when we factor in the interaction of the foreign-born unemployment rate with either type of terrorism, an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate decreases GDP per capita. On the policy front, we show that peace is valuable, and OECD countries will benefit by adopting policies to reduce the problem of terrorism. We also find that an increase in the foreign-born unemployment rate has a large negative impact on GDP per capita and policies that close the gap between foreign-born and native-born unemployment rates (for example, those aimed at reducing discrimination against immigrants) help the economy.     

A model of price and quantity adjustments in primary commodity markets

This paper presents a dynamic, simultaneous model of price and quantity adjustments in world primary commodity markets. The model is formulated in a disequilibrium framework, emphasizing particularly the role of price adjustment. In addition to the price equation, commodity consumption and production equations are also specified. The empirical analysis of the model is carried out with the annual data of six primary commodities: coffee, cocoa, rubber, copper, tin, and sugar. This includes the estimation of price, consumption, production equations, the simulation tests of complete structural models for these six commodities, and the derivation of dynamic responses (measured by elasticities) of commodity prices to changes in world income, world inflation, and commodity outputs. Dynamic simulations strongly confirm the commonly observed self-generating and recurring boom-and-bust cycles of primary commodity prices. This finding lends credibility to the models constructed.     

What Can We Afford For the National Health Service?

The annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is here used as a standard measure against which to compare expenditure on Health & Welfare and Defence budgets, between Conservative and Labour governments and the four largest EC countries 1973/4-1993/4. An analysis of Mrs Thatcher's governments’ expenditure shows that proportionately less GDP went to General Government Expenditure (GGE) than all the other European Community countries. Mrs Thatcher's first government maintained the unprecedented level of GDP devoted to Health reached in 1978/79, but successive administrations began to reduce, and, plan further reductions of GDP for the NHS. Relative decreases of GDP were also found in relation to expenditure on Social Security, Housing, and Personal Social Services and Defence. The governments of France, Germany and Italy provided more of their GDP to health than Britain, whilst at the same time we spent more on Defence and Law & Order & Public Safety. This raises the question: what can we afford for the NHS? A review of demographic changes shows that the British infant and elderly population, who are associated with demands for health, were proportionately more numerous than in France, Germany and Italy. This suggests the need for more UK health expenditure if Britain is to meet current and future needs.     

The Inclusion of Minority Groups in Clinical Trials: Problems of Under Representation and Under Reporting of Data

Objective: To evaluate the representation of minority groups in randomized control trials (RCTs), and the frequency with which this information is reported.

Study Design: Reviewers collected data on the racial/ethnic composition of study samples from all RCTs published in six leading medical journals in 1999.

Results: Of the 280 RCTs, most (204, 71.3%) provided no information on the race/ethnicity of participants. Of the 89 U.S.-based RCTs, 50 (56.1%) reported their minority distribution. Relative to other trials, those funded by the National Institute of Health (NIH) (n = 52) were more likely to report race/ethnicity data (55.8% vs. 23.7%; χ² = 20.9, p ≤ 0.001) and to include nonwhite participants (13.5% vs. 12.5%; χ² = 22.7, p ≤ 0.001).

Conclusion: Minority groups are currently under-represented in clinical trials. Information on the race and ethnicity of clinical trial participants is currently underreported in six leading medical journals. Reporting of minority group information was significantly better only in NIH funded trials, which also were more likely to include nonwhite participants. This suggests that mandatory reporting policies may have a positive effect on both reporting and representation.     

Inclusionary policy and marginalised groups in Aoteaora/New Zealand process,impacts and politics

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the consolidated findings of a four-year research project that evaluated policy inclusion between the New Zealand government and communities of difference – specifically, ethnic/migrant/refugee groups, women/gender and Māori. Policy inclusion builds on foundational principles of deliberative democracy that dialogue and relationship not only improve policy but also foster democratic transitions towards pluralism and diversity. Although associated with the social democratic agenda of the Fifth Labour government, collaborative policymaking with marginalised groups continued in the subsequent National government. Drawing on interviews with policy communities, this paper analyses (a) the processes of inclusionary policymaking, (b) policy impacts and (c) implications for politics of difference. The findings suggest that, overall, the greatest efforts in inclusive policy have been at the level of design, primarily by maximising the presence of members and promoting visibility for communities of difference. These processes have had less impact on sustained, deep political transformations or opportunities for advancing diversity. The findings suggest that inclusionary policymaking had benefits for recognition politics, but against the backdrop of recent neo-conservatism, the prospects for pluralistic politics have been compromised, paving instead a politics of regulation.     

The inclusion of minority groups in clinical trials: problems of under representation and under reporting of data

Objective: To evaluate the representation of minority groups in randomized control trials (RCTs), and the frequency with which this information is reported. Study Design: Reviewers collected data on the racial/ethnic composition of study samples from all RCTs published in six leading medical journals in 1999. Results: Of the 280 RCTs, most (204, 71.3%) provided no information on the race/ethnicity of participants. Of the 89 U.S.-based RCTs, 50 (56.1%) reported their minority distribution. Relative to other trials, those funded by the National Institute of Health (NIH) (n = 52) were more likely to report race/ethnicity data (55.8% vs. 23.7%; x2 = 20.9, p <_0.001) and to include nonwhite participants (13.5 % vs. 12.5%; x2=22.7, p<_0.001). Conclusion: Minority groups are currently under-represented in clinical trials. Information on the race and ethnicity of clinical trial participants is currently underreported in six leading medical journals. Reporting of minority group information was significantly better only in NIH funded trials, which also were more likely to include nonwhite participants. This suggests that mandatory reporting policies may have a positive effect on both reporting and representation.     

The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts

Do exogenous economic shocks promote civil conflicts directly? Do they affect all the societies alike? The current approach presents a large sample panel data evidence not only on the effect of commodity export price shocks on conflict incidence, rather than onsets, but also on the joint impact of both ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization on political instability. In this regard, we find out that in ethnically polarized societies, the commodity export price shocks increase violence. Nonetheless, in ethnically and religiously fractionalized societies (as well as religiously polarized), the effect of commodity export price shocks on civil conflicts depends on the type of income shocks and category of commodity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by illuminating the compound effect of both income shocks and social diversity on intrastate conflicts.     

On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/Monetary Shocks

The hypothesis of a long-run quantifiable relationship between non-oil primary commodity prices and macroeconomic/monetary variables—focusing industrial production and effective exchange rate of the US dollar—is tested by cointegration technique using quarterly data for 1970q2–93q3. This confirmed equilibrium adjustment explains the origin of the observed coincidence of commodity price variations with the fluctuations of macroeconomic/monetary variables. An error correction specification, including interest rate, is therefore applied to estimate the observed disequilibrium prices of commodities in the context of steady-state solutions. This instantaneous adjustment explains why commodity prices have fluctuated more strongly over the last 2 decades than before.     

2008年北京奥运会商品消费价值研究

随着2008年奥运会的临近,奥运经济成为关注的焦点。本文在Sheth(1991)提出的五种消费价值观的理论基础上发展了一份消费价值观量表,以北京的消费者为研究对象,采用了因子分析、聚类分析、方差分析,对应分析和卡方检验等多种研究方法,分析了在奥运会商品市场上城市消费者的消费价值构成,以及消费价值构成和由此聚类产生的消费组群与人口统计变量之间的关系,由此给出了由分析得出的结论和政策建议。     

The impact of fiscal shocks on real GDP and income inequality: What do Australian data say?

This paper examines the impact of three fiscal policy shocks on per capita real GDP and income inequality in Australia during the period 1965–2014. A small structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is constructed for an open economy for contemporaneous identification and estimation purposes. Based on the evidence of one cointegrating vector among the variables, a structural vector error correction (SVEC) model is specified for the long run. Direct taxation, indirect taxation receipts and government spending are identified as permanent fiscal policy shocks. The convergent use of two different models (SVAR & SVEC) strengthens the credibility of the results. The results have three key policy implications. First, a reduction in direct taxation receipts increases per capita real GDP without increasing income inequality. Second, a reduction in government expenditure significantly increases income inequality. Third, the adverse effect of indirect taxation receipts on income inequality is greater than the redistributive effect of government expenditure, which questions the widely held fiscal policy strategy of using indirect taxation to finance redistributive expenditure.     

The Deep Side of Preference Theory

An individual is said to have a taste for a particular menu, i.e. a subset of available commodities, if he is indifferent between all commodity bundles that contain the same quantity for each commodity which actually is in the menu, whatever the rest of the bundle. Then, a taste is directly defined as a deep property of preferences. As a first result, it is shown that a complete and transitive preference relation over the commodity bundles is equivalent to regular tastes where regularity means that tastes can be derived from a pure qualitative relation between the different commodities. Besides, a preference family based on preference relations corresponding to each particular commodity is said to be rationalizable if there exists a metapreference over commodity bundles which consistently summarizes the preference family and then allows to decide. As a second result, it is shown that if a preference family is rationalizable, then the tastes are organized thanks to a reflexive and transitive qualitative relation between the different commodities.     

商品社会使用价值与市场价格规律论

现代经济理论的两大体系 ,都对价格的有关理论做出了说明。有一种说法 ,把马克思主义经济学的劳动价值论与当代西方主流经济学派的供求论综合起来 ,就应当可以得到较为完美的价格理论。但这是不可能的。解决问题的出路 ,只能是按马克思主义经济学的内在逻辑 ,深入研究商品的使用价值 ,通过商品价值和使用价值对商品价格做出完整的说明 ,同时破解在供求与价值决定上的相互循环论证 ,发展以劳动价值为基础的价格理论。商品的使用价值 ,具有自然使用价值和社会使用价值两重属性。商品的社会使用价值深刻地反映着商品交换的经济关系 ,由自然使用价值等一系列因素决定。商品社会使用价值 ,在量上最终表现为某一商品的社会需求量与生产供给量的比率 ,在不同的条件下具有不同的值。商品的市场价格 ,由商品价值或其转化形式与商品社会使用价值共同决定。社会使用价值比价值或其转化形式更复杂、更多样、更易变 ,是市场价格变化的主导因素。社会使用价值为 1的市场价格 ,即是市场均衡价格。所谓市场价格围绕商品价值或其转化形式上下波动 ,实质上应是围绕市场均衡价格上下波动。调节市场供求关系的根本因素 ,表面上看是商品价格 ,而实质上是市场供求的相互作用。     

Economic liberalization in Egypt: A way to reduce the shadow economy?

This study examines the relationship between economic liberalization and the size of the shadow economy in Egypt. We use annual data from 1976 to 2013 and show that economic liberalization policies in Egypt have a statistically significant decreasing effect on the size of the shadow economy as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This effect is confirmed for both short- and long-term oriented economic liberalization policies. Based on our results, policies which promote trade and economic liberalization can reduce the extension of the shadow economy in Egypt. Therefore, we suggest conditioning international development assistance to Egypt on demonstrable policy actions with respect to economic liberalization.     

Why do richer democracies survive?—The non-effect of unconventional political participation

Since Seymour Lipset's (1959) seminal article on the social prerequisites of democracy, many scholars have found a strong empirical correlation between increases in per capita income and democracy. Given this strong connection however, an important gap in the literature remains—what are the pathways linking wealth and democracy? This paper attempts to establish the validity of one of the possible paths by testing the three-fold relationship between per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unconventional political participation and democratic consolidation. Despite finding a strong positive correlation between per capita GDP and the consolidation of democracy, this research reveals that unconventional political participation is not mediating this effect.