我国住房抵押贷款二级市场的构建

住房贷款抵押一级市场是抵押贷款活动的创造过程,二级市场是指销售抵押和转售抵押.二级市场可以为一级市场提供稳定长期的资金来源.缺少二级市场的住房贷款抵押市场永远是不完整的市场.我国目前基本具备了建立住房贷款抵押二级市场的可行条件,要建立的住房抵押贷款二级市场有三种方式可以选择.     

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.     

Gender and the credit rationing of small businesses

Rapid small business ownership growth rates among women have motivated research on issues related to gender and small business performance. The importance of credit access for the success of small businesses, as well as evidence that women have less access to credit than male business owners, has led researchers to explore the reasons for this. In this paper, we estimate a model of credit rationing by gender of the business owner. Our results are consistent with previous studies that find higher loan denial rates and lower loan application rates among women compared with men. Testing the robustness of the results we find that women seem to be rationing themselves in the credit market rather than being discriminated against by banks. Reasons for this self-rationing behavior are an important topic for further research.     

Racial Disparities in Access to Mortgage Credit: Does Governance Matter?*

Objectives. This article examines the effect of community organizing on the likelihood that minority borrowers pursue home mortgage credit from regulated lenders. Methods. Governance perspectives suggest that community organizations exert significant influence on policy outcomes. We use logistic regression with interaction terms to test the effect of community organizing on the lending outcomes of minority borrowers. We use a matched control sample of cities, drawing on 2004 loan data from two midwestern cities similar in racial and economic composition but with different histories of organizing around the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Results. We find differential effects based on an applicant's race or ethnicity. Overall, African‐American applicants are less likely to pursue mortgage credit for home ownership from regulated lenders than their white, non‐Hispanic counterparts. However, African Americans seeking mortgage credit in a city with a history of CRA organizing are more likely to apply to regulated lenders than their racial counterparts in a city without CRA organizing. However, while organizing reduces the disparities between white and African‐American applicants, a gap still remains. Conclusion. African‐American borrowers living in cities with a history of community organizing around CRA appear more likely to pursue mortgage credit from traditional, regulated lenders, suggesting that governance matters.     

世界贸易组织与中国金融

金融是市场经济的中枢神经,是资本运营的核心.中国的金融体制源于计划模式,资源配置主要靠财政,不是银行.在体制转轨中,面临着艰巨的改革任务.在金融实务领域,存在着五大观念误区银行只能国家专办;国有银行只能给国有企业贷款;贷款必须提供实物硬件抵押;不是积极"寻贷",而是消极"惜贷";只是单纯放贷,不是兼顾投资.面向WTO,中国金融的发展走向是重新构筑金融体系;鼓励发展民营银行;实行国有银行的股份化改造,促进金融市场的深化;扩大金融市场的开放,尽快和国际接轨.     

Buying into the American Dream? Mexican Immigrants,Legal Status,and Homeownership in Los Angeles County*

Objectives. Contemporary patterns of homeownership reflect the continuing racial and ethnic stratification that exists in nearly all areas of American society. Of particular interest, especially within the context of recent immigration legislation, are the homeownership experiences of Mexican immigrants in the United States. Methods. The current study employs unique data from the 2001 Los Angeles County Mexican Immigrant Residency Status Survey (LAC‐MIRSS) to examine the association between diverse forms of legal status and homeownership for Mexican immigrants. Results. Analyses indicate that the relationship between legal status and housing tenure is not statistically significant, after accounting for economic, life‐course/life‐cycle, and assimilation/social capital characteristics. Conclusions. The lack of a significant relationship is contrary to past research, perhaps explained by the explosive growth of the subprime mortgage market in the United States; the increasing recognition by financial institutions of Latino immigrants as a largely untapped, yet emerging, market in the mortgage industry; the availability of alternative forms of identification; and the institutionalization of unauthorized immigration in Los Angeles.     

Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia

This paper examined an empirical investigation of whether financial development can boost economic growth in Tunisia. We used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to assess the finance-growth relation taking private credit, value traded and issuing bank's securities on the financial market as financial development indicators.The empirical results showed that the domestic credit to private sector has a positive effect on the economic growth suggesting that the financial development is a driver of a long term economic growth, but subject to a financial fragility at the short run. Moreover, this study confirmed the view of bidirectional relationship between credit and economic growth. However, we found that neither the stock market development nor the intervention of banks in the stock market had robust and positive effects on the economic growth. Thus, Tunisia is recommended to accelerate in priority the financial reforms of the Tunisian stock market in order to contribute to mobilize savings and promote long run economic growth.     

Are there rewards for language skills? Evidence from the earnings of registered nurses

The existing empirical evidence on whether U.S. labor markets reward workers for second-language skills is meager and conflicting. Employing data from the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses in 2000 and 2004, this study reexamines the positive bilingual–earnings relationship found in the most current research on this topic. We test the relationship using alternative models that explain the wages earned by nurses. The advantage of this approach is that it permits an assessment of how sensitive the results are to changes in the variables used in the model. We find the evidence of a positive bilingual effect on earnings to be mixed. The relationship is sufficiently frail that statistically significant results eventually dissolve as more precise occupational characteristics are included in the wage equation. Moreover, using more current data, we find no evidence of a wage premium paid to nurses for second-language skills. We offer possible explanations for this lack of evidence within this specific occupation.     

我国推行住宅抵押贷款证券化问题分析

目前,在我国推行住宅抵押贷款证券化存在着抵押贷款规模过小、房地产开发融资渠道不宽、商业银行积极性不高、信用制度不健全、法律环境不完善等问题。我国还不具备大规模推广住宅抵押贷款证券化的条件。     

扩大内需的潜力工具--个人消费信贷

经济增长的动力,最终来自于需求.西方新古典学派的消费理论为消费信贷的实践奠定了理论基础.发展个人消费信贷是启动目前国内经济的一个新思路,它在刺激内需、实现市场供求平衡、丰富银行金融业务、增强行业竞争力等诸多方面发挥着作用.个人消费信贷业务的有效开展,对于带动整个国民经济的发展具有重要的战略意义.     

论信用缺失的成因及对经济的侵蚀

信用是现代市场经济的生命 ,但信用缺失是我国当前经济生活中一个不争的现实。政府行为不规范 ,法律制度不健全 ,市场经济体制不完善 ,以及经济主体自身存在的不足是其存在的主要原因。由于缺乏诚信 ,对我国经济造成极大的危害 ,增加了交易成本 ,导致了需求不足 ,国际竞争力下降 ,从而在一定程度上延缓了我国经济市场化进程     

对需求不足的信贷对策

我国的市场需求走势,符合一般规律,但也有其特殊表现.主要有两个特征一是货币紧缺,大众居民收入窘困;二是消费不足,商品积压,库存增加.针对需求不足的现状,应尽快出台激活消费信贷业务的举措.其内容主要包括(1)引导大众消费意识;(2)增加低收入群的收入;(3)为高档消费贷款提高有效服务;(4)降低住房和汽车的成本和价格;(5)消费信贷与保险业务结合;(6)加大银行自身改革力度.     

The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing

The Irish economy has recently endured a period of turbulence as a result of the collapse of the domestic property market bubble and the onset of the global financial crisis. There are two critical vulnerabilities in the Irish economy at present. The first is the potential for sluggish economic growth due to a slowdown in external demand, which impacts on the government's ability to meet budgetary targets. The second concern relates to the financial stability of the banking system given the escalating mortgage crisis. Our results show that Irish economic growth is highly sensitive to the performance of its trading partners and any international slowdown will hinder Ireland's growth prospects. The model used suggests that the appropriate policy response is to pursue further gains in competitiveness. We estimate the impact of an external slowdown on mortgage delinquency using a new dataset on the loan books of the commercial banking sector. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days. Arrears are driven by unemployment and negative equity in the model. We discuss policies to contain the mortgage crisis by improving these intermediate target variables.     

Housing and the business cycle in South Africa

This paper examines the housing-output growth nexus in South Africa by accounting for the time variation in the causal link with a bootstrapped rolling Granger non-causality test. We use quarterly data on real gross domestic product, real house prices, real gross fixed capital formation and number of building plans passed. Our data span 1971Q2–2012Q2. Using full sample bootstrap Granger causality tests, we find a uni-directional causality from output to number of building plans passed; a uni-directional causality from real house price to output and a bi-directional causal link between residential investment and output. However, using parameter stability tests, we show that estimated VARs are unstable, thus full-sample Granger causality inference may be invalid. Hence, we use a bootstrap rolling window estimation to evaluate Granger causality between the housing variables and the growth rate. In general, we find that the causality from housing to output and, vice versa, differ across different sample periods due to structural changes. Specifically speaking, house price is found to have the strongest causal relationship with output compared to residential investment and number of building plans passed, with real house price showing predictive ability in all but one downward phase of the business cycle during this period.     

The impact of microcredit on small firms in Brazil: A potential to promote investment,growth and inclusion

Over the past decades, microfinance has become a pillar of economic development policies. However, despite the great popularity of micro-credit programs, the results of empirical studies are mixed. Thus, more research is needed to help us understand how effective microfinance is in achieving poverty reduction, economic development, and financial inclusion. This paper contributes to the literature by relying on a unique dataset from one of the biggest Fintech companies in Brazil to study the impact of microcredit on small firms’ outcomes. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that access to credit increases monthly revenues and profits by nearly 4.5%. We show that the effects are stronger for women-led businesses and less experienced entrepreneurs. In addition, we find that credit renewal strengthens the benefits of credit access. We discuss several policy implications from our results. In particular, the permanent availability of credit – as opposed to one-time/short-term interventions -- has greater potential to generate virtuous cycles of ever more reinvestment and growth, indicating larger gains from relaxing borrowing constraints in the long run.     

The long-term consequences of youth housing for childbearing and higher education

The lack of housing in areas where young adults have greater opportunities to study and get work complicates young adults’ entry into the adulthood. Difficulties in accessing housing may therefore delay childbearing and may negatively have an effect on education opportunities. To increase housing accessibility, some municipalities have earmarked apartments for young adults. These “youth dwellings” are criticized for being small and not necessarily facilitating family formation and fertility, better suiting students’ needs. We have in this paper compared the long-term pattern of childbearing and education for young adults that entered their housing market through small cheap youth housing with those youngsters that received a rental apartment from the ordinary housing stock. To be able to draw the conclusion that differences in fertility and educational pattern between these two groups comes from the different housing situation and not from differences in in preferences when it comes to childbearing or individual prerequisites for higher education, we have used a geocoded data and information on the individual’s family background as well as a matching technique to create a comparison group that are similar to the treatment group in several aspects. The present results indicate that building affordable housing that is small and space efficient is sufficient and positive if the aim is to promote higher education. Affordable housing is on the other hand not enough to promote childbearing, instead, it seems to inhibit childbearing until there is a possibility of moving on in the housing career. Our result also indicates that the next step need not necessarily be homeownership, as earlier research has indicated. Entering the housing market via youth housing and then being able to move on to rental accommodation in the ordinary housing market also seems to have a positive effect on overall childbearing, although moving to cooperative housing or owned housing has an even larger effect.     

Policy measures in the deleveraging process: A macroprudential evaluation

This paper evaluates post-crisis effects of deleveraging policy in Slovenia. Reductions in banks’ credits to nonfinancial sectors were driven by increased collateralization, credit rationing, and a neglect of cash flow performance of banking clients. These jeopardized the normal deleveraging of companies with positive cash flows, and rolling over credits, which stifled economic growth. Erroneous sequencing, timing, and calibration of measures steering the deleveraging process generated these processes. Optimal deleveraging process demands that the Central Bank also focus on the stability of the financial system. This task should be a constitutional part of the third macro policy pillar, namely macroprudential policy.     

弱关系型民间借贷的运行逻辑与实现机制--以山西田村调查为例

民间借贷行为在农村一直普遍存在,山西田村作为经济欠发达与社会低度分化地区的代表,其民间借贷行为除了发生在强关系的亲戚朋友之间,以第三方主体为中间人的弱关系的村民间借贷也占据一定地位。不同于市场经济下陌生人间的理性行为,弱关系的民间借贷行为遵循着互惠与道义的运行逻辑,而互惠与道义的实现依托于村庄公共信用体系。村民间互助即仪式性互助与日常生产生活互助奠定了村庄公共信用体系的社会基础。     

透视市场经济中的非信用关系

信用危机愈演愈烈,非信用现象腐蚀经济链条,对我国市场经济发展会造成灾难性的影响。非信用关系的产生不但有观念、传统文化方面的原因,更为重要的原因是经济法制不健全、不完善。应转变信用观念,建立对社会集团、企业及个人等的信用评级机构,并加快信用法制化进程。     

迎接WTO挑战与培养全民信用意识

信用是建立良好的市场经济秩序的基础 ,诚信道德是信用意识培养的核心。当前 ,我国社会信用缺失是加入WTO之后所面临的一个挑战。鉴于此 ,结合《公民道德建设实施纲要》的贯彻落实 ,应通过完善市场经济法规、加强行业自律、规范政府行为、开展保护消费者权益活动等一系列措施 ,建立健全社会信用体系 ,使我国在国际市场上不断增强竞争力。