我国制造业低碳突破性创新战略体系与战略组合研究

对突破性创新进行战略规划是科学的方法和正确的选择,也是业界通行的做法和国际社会的基本共识。我国开展制造业低碳突破性创新必须遵循这一科学范式和国际惯例,从低碳突破性创新的状态、过程、类型、需求、技术等维度进行市场细分和识别,从而勾勒出系统、科学、全面的制造业低碳突破性创新战略体系,借此,采用筛选和重组的加工方法,构建制造业低碳突破性创新可选择的战略组合完整框架,从而为我国制造业低碳突破性创新战略安排提供理论指南和现实指导。     

低碳经济及碳排放评价方法探究

从低碳经济理论研究及实践进展、碳排放定量分析评价两方面进行系统回顾与逻辑梳理,低碳经济是生态经济、循环经济、绿色经济等一系列可持续发展理念在气候变暖形势下具体化、形象化的体现;在保证经济高速发展、整合区域发展特色、链接低碳生产和低碳消费层面的低碳城市规划将成为城市发展低碳经济的重要技术手段.在碳排放定量分析评价中,能源强度、能源结构以及经济增长是影响二氧化碳排放的显著因素;碳排放情景分析结果各异,但对制定碳减排目标具有重要的指导意叉;当前基于能源消费水平的碳排放评价仍有待深入讨论;亟须探索适合城市层面系统的碳排放评价分析方法.     

我国低碳社会建设面临的挑战与优势分析

以能源资源使用技术为核心的低碳经济概念缺乏对制度、文化、伦理、观念等社会因素对全球气候变化影响的考虑,所以对于我国而言,低碳社会建设较之发展低碳经济是更有效的科学战略.我国建设低碳社会在具备强大的国家动员体制和能力的优势、成本优势和一定的公众环境意识水平基础的同时,还面临着来自资源禀赋、发展阶段、社会、文化等方面的挑战,所以,选择积极发挥我国国家动员体制和能力的优势,建立政府主导的、与市场和公民社会开展有效合作的低碳社会建设新体制,借鉴其他国家建设低碳社会的经验,积极参与国际合作,充分利用国际资源等适宜的路径,抓住机遇,迎接挑战,才会有望实现我国低碳社会的转型.     

中国低碳经济发展禀赋与国际经验借鉴

发展低碳经济是中国建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会的重要途径。中国政府努力探寻低碳经济与国家发展战略的结合点,已经采取一系列措施推动低碳经济发展。从发展禀赋来看,中国当前所处的历史发展阶段使低碳经济成为两难选择,城市化、工业化进程加大了节能减排的难度,以煤为主的能源结构加重中国经济的"高碳"特征,几十年的粗放式发展从发展模式、技术到投资都形成了一定程度的"锁定效应",现有贸易结构带来巨大的"内涵能源"出口净值,由技术基础、技术成本和技术转让共同形成了低碳经济技术壁垒。发达国家的经验对我国低碳经济发展提供了有益的启示,包括将发展低碳经济上升到国家发展战略高度,加强气候变化立法,大力发展低碳技术并争夺低碳领域国际标准话语权,完善低碳政策体系,企业和社会全面参与等。     

我国发展低碳经济的战略对策

发展低碳经济是近年来世界能源、政治、经济、环境等领域的热点问题,也是我国贯彻落实科学发展观的客观要求.最近几年,我国低碳经济发展取得了一定成效,但也面临着许多亟待解决的问题.通过时我国低碳经济发展中现存的突出问题及经济发展与碳排放相关关系的实证与计量,以经济发展、产业结构与碳排放问的相关关系为切入点展开分析,论证了经济增长与低碳发展的矛盾关系,进而有针对性地为我国发展低碳经济提供可行性的战略对策.     

福建省低碳经济竞争力评价及提升对策

福建省作为建设海峡西岸经济区的主体,可以发挥＂先行先试＂优势,充分利用优质生态环境和新能源的优势,加快发展低碳经济,提升低碳经济竞争力,使海峡西岸经济区率先实现＂低碳经济＂转型。本文在探索低碳经济竞争力内涵基础上,构建了省际低碳经济竞争力评价指标体系,对2009年东部沿海9个省份低碳经济竞争力进行评价,分析了福建省低碳...     

论低碳经济约束下的城市发展

低碳经济是在全球气候变暖和未来人类面对低能世界的背景下提出来的,是我国也是世界经济社会发展的必然趋势。对国内外低碳城市的实践经验分析,揭示了我国低碳经济约束下的城市发展所面临的问题,针对我国快速城市化、能源结构不合理等现实问题,为建设符合人类发展理想的及适应未来低能世界的新型城市提供理论支持。为了实现我国城市的低碳经济,要优化现有能源结构,加快对新型能源、可再生能源的开发利用;降低第一产业比重,增加第二、三产业在产业结构中的比重,逐步取消高耗能、高污染行业;建立新型清洁的交通体系,倡导电动车、太阳能汽车等交通方式;设计生态的、低碳的适合人类居住的城市建筑;建立各功能区配套合理的城市景观结构,保障能量流、物质流、信息流、人口流在城市中顺利进行。     

现代集成制造系统的技术构成及发展策略研究

近几年新的先进制造技术模式和哲理层出不穷,本文结合我国国情,通过分析现代集成制造系统与其它先进制造技术的关系,论述了我国现代集成制造系统的技术构成和发展策略及途径,希望为我国制造业的发展做些有益的探索.     

低碳经济的认识差异与低碳城市建设模式

发展低碳经济虽然成为国际社会的共识,但发达国家和发展中国家对低碳经济的概念有不同的理解.由于所处发展阶段的不同,发达国家强调的是绝对的低碳,而发展中国家强调相对的低碳,进而在低碳城市建设的目标和模式上表现出很大的不同.无论绝对的低碳经济还是相对的低碳经济,都是为了实现控制温室气体排放的全球共同愿景,反映出全球向低碳经济转型的阶段性特征.     

基于低碳经济视角下的我国农村居民消费方式探讨

随着农村经济的快速发展和城市化进程的加快,农村消费将是我国未来碳排放增长的主要来源,因此,要从根本上解决高污染、高排放难题,单靠转变城市的生产和消费方式是远远不够的,在农村实行低碳消费必不可少。目前,我国农村居民生活消费方式的现状不利于低碳消费方式的开展,实现低碳消费面临的主要障碍有:农户收入水平不高;农户低碳消费观念薄弱;农村低碳消费领域资金支持不足,缺乏制度保障与引导。就此,农村居民实行低碳消费方式的主要路径包括:提高农村居民的收入;加大新能源、节能技术的推广应用,提高生活用能效率;加强对农村环境的监管与治理,提高农村废弃物的综合利用水平;广泛宣传低碳消费观念,提高村民的低碳意识。针对农村低碳消费属于新兴的理念,需要政府相关的制度创新与政策引导,建议可实行以下政策措施:加大对农村发展沼气、太阳能等新型环保能源的资金与技术投入;大力倡导并扶持农村低碳生活;建立健全低碳消费发展的相关政策制度;逐步开展鼓励低碳消费的农村消费金融服务。     

Strategic Measures to Reduce China’s Carbon Emissions: Based on an Index Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Eight Industries

This article uses the refined Laspeyres index decomposition method to examine the overall trends and characteristics of carbon emissions in eight Chinese industries for the period 1994-2008. The results show that every one percentage point increase in economic scale will result in an average increase of 15 Mt (million tonnes) in carbon emissions. However, different industries vary greatly in terms of marginal carbon emissions caused by economic growth. The economic structure’s bias toward heavy industry fuels the increase of carbon emissions: every one percentage point rise in the share of manufacturing industry produces an average of 56 Mt carbon emissions. Technological progress helps reduce energy intensity and serves as a core driver in reducing carbon emissions, in that every one percentage point decrease in energy intensity will cause an average reduction of 33 Mt in carbon emissions. Our coal-dominated energy structure has resulted in a persistently high level of carbon emissions, suggesting that the reduction effect brought about by changes in energy structure is not significant. Nevertheless, lowering the density of overall carbon emissions is a positive signal, indicating that China is optimizing its energy structure. Only by promoting industrial restructuring, optimizing energy structure, encouraging energy-saving technologies and technological innovation, and reorienting industry can China achieve low-carbon development and control pollution.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL GOVERNANCEStrategic Measures to Reduce China＇s Carbon Emissions： Based on an Index Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Eight Industries

基于优化的Laspeyres指数分解方法,通过考察1994-2008年我国八大行业部门碳排放量的总体趋势与特征,结果发现：经济规模每增长一个百分点,碳排放量平均增加15Mt（百万吨）,但不同行业间经济增长的边际碳排放量差异很大;经济结构重型化加剧碳排放量的增加,制造业比重每增加一个百分点,碳排放量平均增加56Mt;技术进步推动能源强度下降,是减少碳排放的核心动力,能源强度每下降一个百分点,碳排放量平均减少33Mt;以煤炭为主的能源结构导致碳排放密度居高不下,能源结构变化的减排效应并不显著。但是,综合碳排放密度下降是一个积极的信号,显现出我国能源结构优化的迹象。推动产业结构调整、能源结构优化,促进节能技术与工艺创新、走新型工业化道路,是实现中国低碳发展的必经之路。     

印度制造业发展缓慢的制度原因剖析

与以制造业作为经济增长引擎的中国不同,印度制造业的发展始终保持缓慢低下的增长速度。本文从制度角度揭示了印度制造业发展缓慢的深层原因。笔者结合印度制度环境形成的历史背景与制度变迁的路径依赖,发现长期的混合经济和民主体制形成的僵化体制增加了印度制度变迁的难度。劳动力市场保护和许可证等一系列管制构成制造业把握开放机会的制度障碍,造成外资和贸易的不旺,进而无法促进制造业的发展。     

Stimulating effects of intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies in China

Based on the pilot projects of intelligent manufacturing of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China and the annual data reported by listed companies, this paper studies the effect of China's intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies by using the panel data of relevant enterprises from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mechanism of impact. Our empirical tests, using the difference-in-difference method, shows that intelligent policy can significantly improve the economic performance of manufacturing enterprises by guiding enterprises to optimize their intelligent management, strengthening investment in intelligent equipment and promoting collaborative manufacturing. Further empirical tests show that the impact of intelligent policy on economic performance is different in time. In the later selected pilot enterprises, the impact of intelligent policy on their economic performance is more significant; there is regional heterogeneity in the effects of intelligent policy: in regions with low intelligence, the positive impact of intelligent policy on the economic performance of manufacturing industry is more significant. Based on these conclusions, relevant intelligent policy suggestions are put forward.     

江苏省地级市制造业排名及国际化研究—基于13个地级市的比较研究

作为中国制造业强省综合排名第一的江苏省，其制造业发展总体水平较高，但省内各个地级市之间的区域差距较大，这与各个城市的国际化程度密切相关。为了推进江苏制造业向更高层次、更均衡方向发展，需要各个地级市充分发挥自身优势，采取更为积极的国际化策略。运用因子分析法分析13个地级市制造业的国际化状况。各个城市不同的国际化策略导致省内制造业发展不均衡。各城市运用国际化策略推动制造业发展的不同路径。     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

南宁产业集群培育发展的路径选择

产业集群与产业竞争力密切关联,培育产业集群是加快南宁工业经济发展的关键所在:它是推动南宁经济结构升级的必然要求;是推动南宁区域经济增长的重要动力;是打造北部湾经济区加工制造业基地的重要方式。加快南宁产业集群培育和发展的主要路径有:实施产业链定向招商;在现有产业基础上培育壮大;培育"种子"企业;建设好开发区和工业园区等重要载体;政府调控与市场运作相结合。     

The impact of de-globalization on China’s economic transformation: Evidence from manufacturing export

The economic transformation is an important policy practice of economic development in China. In the context of “deglobalization”, it is critically important to better understand the impacts of increasing trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports. In this study, we measure the trade costs of specific manufacturing sectors and provinces. We employ Heckman (1979) two-stage method and the data from China’s manufacturing firms to investigate the impacts of trade costs on heterogeneous firms’ exports. Based on these results, we further explore the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation and discuss policy advisories. Our results indicate that the increase in trade costs have adverse impacts on China’s economic transformation. Specifically, increasing trade costs hinder firms’ export behaviors and export scales. However, these impacts are heterogeneous on different types of firms, which refers to the ownership reforms, manufacturing sector upgrades and coordinated regional development. In particular, increasing trade costs do not affect coordinated regional development in China, but they are not conducive to ownership reforms and manufacturing sector upgrades. Altogether, our findings provide the first evidence on the impacts of trade costs on China’s economic transformation from the perspective of firms’ exports, and also shed light on policy implications for promoting firms’ exports and economic transformation in the “deglobalization” period.     

李约瑟问题、文化基因与中国新型制造业

回顾、比较中国经济的长期发展，介绍李约瑟问题的时代背景。利用对世界制造业中心以及工业革命演进路径的描述，证明了文化基因传承发展的基础意义，并对李约瑟问题进行诠释。借助对新型制造业内涵与框架的陈述分析，提炼发展文化基因的时代先进性特征，从而证明李约瑟问题只是一定历史阶段、一个地区的时代性命题，世界范围内文明、经济和社会发展的基础是文化基因的系统性演化。     

China-Germany Industrial Cooperation in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative—An Analysis Focusing on Shandong Province*

At present, economic decision-makers and theorists predict that the robust alliance of “German technology” and “made in China” will reach new global heights through the development of intelligent manufacturing. However, the path to the realization of this prediction is still being explored. Shandong is a microcosm of China’s economic development and China-Germany cooperation, so the province can be analyzed as a representative example of the industrial choices and implementation strategies of this cooperation. In practice, China-Germany industrial cooperation should take into account industries where Germany has an advantage and the industrial development priorities and future growth potential of China and Shandong. We should thus focus on raising the quality of German investment and attending to its spill-over effects. The findings of a quantitative analysis of Shandong’s industrial gradient coefficient and industrial correlation show that the future alignment of German and Shandong industry should adhere to the principle of “emphasizing key points and storing up resources for the future.” For this reason, we should not only strengthen the key fields of Shandong’s industrial alignment with Germany, but also actively cultivate areas with potential. Research on the pattern of German investment in China indicates that German companies’ choice of investment location has certain distinctive features. The factors that matter most in attracting German investment are the concentration of German first-comer enterprises in the host country, the shape of the business environment and the level of human capital and regional science and technology. For this reason, against the background of the Belt and Road Initiative, Shandong’s alignment with German industry should focus on building industry chains, constructing investment platforms and shaping the external environment.