Energy consumption and hidden economy in Macedonia: Causes and responses

We propose a compact analytical model for estimation of the size of hidden economy (H), using two input variables: total electricity consumption in the country and the gross domestic product.An analytical expression has been obtained for H, as explicit function of n (year), and two parameters: H(0) (the size of hidden economy in the base year (n = 0)), and the parameters μ (the elasticity for electricity consumption with respect to the gross domestic product) and r (relative efficiency of the hidden economy compared to the regular economy).We show that the size of hidden economy can be effectively estimated based on the variations of energy consumption. Using the results for the case of Macedonia we identify several oscillations attributed to dramatic events and suggest policy approach responding to external shocks generating hidden economy rather that to generally adopted factors (e.g. taxation).     

Exploring the role of gain versus loss framing and point of reference in messages to reduce human–bear conflicts

As a fundamental social process, communication can help natural resource managers prevent or manage many human–wildlife conflicts, but research on how to present effectively information that contributes to the reduction of human–wildlife conflicts is scant. We examined the effectiveness of point-of-reference and gain-versus-loss framing in heightening intentions to prevent human–black bear conflicts. We randomly assigned 811 participants to one of six message conditions as part of a 3 (point of reference: family versus community versus bear) × 2 (message framing: gain versus loss) between-subjects factorial design or a control condition. The findings show that a match between loss framing and low-construal referencing point (e.g., family-referencing), and a congruency between gain framing and high-construal referencing point (e.g., bear-referencing) lead to higher risk perception and behavioral intentions. This study provides guidance for continuing research and design of risk communication in the context of human–bear conflicts.     

Does proximity matter? Plant location,public awareness,and support for nuclear energy

Does geographic proximity to nuclear power plants influence public attitudes toward nuclear energy? Utilizing a statewide survey of North Carolina residents, this research considers whether proximity to a nuclear facility – measured by residence in a 10 or 50 mile Emergency Planning Zone – influences citizen awareness, support, and perceptions of safety concerning nuclear energy. The results suggest that while geographic proximity to generating sites does lead to increased levels of awareness, it does not appear to impact overall attitudes toward the use and perceived safety of nuclear energy.     

Is religious and existential well-being important in quality of life in Hong Kong Chinese?

The present study aims to determine the extent to which general QoL is predicted by religious and existential well-being, taking into consideration the intensity of participants’ religious and personal beliefs. Additionally, we examine the differences between Christians, believers in the Chinese religions, and those who are not religious. The study is based on the secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey on the Spiritual Well-being scale (SWBS), which encompasses religious (RWB) and existential well-being (EWB). Participants (N = 445) were comprised of three religious subsamples for known group comparisons: a Chinese religions group (CRG) (n = 133), comprising Buddhism (23.1%), Taoism (5.2%), folk religions and ancestral worship (1.5%); a Christian group (n = 144) consisting of Roman Catholics (8.3%) and Protestants (24%); and non-believers (NRel) (n = 167). Regardless of their religious affiliations, QoL scores were the same in the overall sample. However, when taking the extent of religious commitment and sense of belonging into consideration, religious believers had higher scores in QoL and SWBS than non-believers (highest in Christians, followed by CRG and NRel). Hierarchical regressions showed that EWB was the only significant predictor of QoL after controlling for gender, age, and the extent of religious belief and commitment. The data indicated positive influences of religious beliefs on QoL and SWBS, although distinct affiliations might have affected these scores to a different extent. Fostering RWB and EWB are vital to promoting QoL.     

Social support,self-efficacy and gender as predictors of reported stress among inpatient caregivers

The study examined the predictive role of social support, self-efficacy and gender on self-reported stress among inpatients’ caregivers. One hundred and sixty eight (36 males and 132 females) inpatients’ caregivers were sampled from University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital (97) and Niger Foundation Hospital (71) all in Enugu, Nigeria. Three instruments were used for the data collection, namely, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), New General Self Efficacy Scale (NGSES), and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). The study adopted a cross sectional design and Multiple Regression was used for data analysis. Results showed that social support negatively predicted inpatient caregivers’ reported stress (β = ?.28, p < .001). Gender significantly predicted stress among the inpatients’ caregivers (β = .35, p < .001). Findings were discussed and implications of the study highlighted.     

Locus of control and the direction of lethal violence: Cross national analysis,research note

Previous work has suggested that economic development affects the direction of lethal violence through a civilizing process wherein there is a shift from an internal to an external locus of control. However, data were not available to measure locus of control. The present work assesses the relationship between a measure of control and the direction of lethal violence or SHR (suicide rate/(suicide + homicide rates)). Data representing 53 nations are merged from the world values survey and the world health organization. The results of a multiple regression analysis show that locus of control is unrelated to the direction of violence. While development fosters internal locus of control, the link between development and direction of violence is not explained by locus of control.     

Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies

We analyze the spillovers of Western economic sanctions against Russia into twenty-seven transition economies of the former Soviet Union, and Central and Eastern Europe. These spillovers are measured in terms of their impact on bilateral trade and direct investments for the period of 2014–2018. We construct a new dataset to quantify each episode of Western/US sanctions against Russia. The gravity models of bilateral trade and direct investment are used and the data analysis is conducted using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood econometric technique. We estimate that the Western and U.S. sanctions against Russia spilled over into third-party small countries. These sanctions resulted in the significant decline of exports from transition economies, Russian imports to transition economies, and Russian direct investments to transition economies. Interestingly, the direct investments to Russia from transition economies sharply increased during the same period. The quantitative estimates of the spillovers suggest the following cumulative changes. Due to an imposed sanction type (e.g., against an individual, entity or sector) each episode of Western/U.S. sanction resulted in the decline of aforementioned indicators in the range of 10.9–30.5-million-dollar/5.6–16.9-million-dollar of exports from transition economies, 6.3–17.7-million-dollar/3.3–9.8-million-dollar of Russian imports to transition economies, and 3.4–9.4-million-dollar/1.7–5.2-million-dollar of Russian direct investments to transition economies. The direct investments to Russia from transition economies increased by 10.9–30.6-million-dollar/5.7–17-million-dollar, respectively.     

Changes in anti-fat weight bias in women after exposure to thin and plus-sized models

We examined whether exposing women to female models with different body sizes lead to changes in weight-based attitudes and whether evaluation focus altered the effects. Female college students (N = 214) were exposed to 22 images of either thin or overweight models. Participants rated models on either appearance or non-appearance characteristics and completed measures of anti-fat attitudes, thin ideal internalization, and demographics. Participants rated thin and overweight models equally attractive and sexy. Viewing overweight models showed a significant reduction in anti-fat attitudes. There were no effects for thin models or evaluation ratings. Discussion focuses on the implications of positive images of overweight individuals on social attitudes.     

Talking with like-minded people—Equality and efficacy in enclave deliberation

Enclaves of like-minded people are often seen as problematic from a democratic point of view, as they have been found to lead to both group polarization and an amplification of cognitive errors. Nevertheless, enclaves can also act as protected spaces have the opportunity to discuss politics with their peers. As a result, people who are less well-endowed to face political disagreement can find it easier to engage in politics. In order to study the ‘empowering’ potential of enclave deliberation, we use data from a population-based experiment (n = 207). The participants were randomly allocated to two treatments. Some participants deliberated in groups consisting of people with similar baseline views on immigration (like-minded treatment), whereas others deliberated in groups where both restrictive and permissive participants were present (mixed treatment). We hypothesize that (1) discussion in like-minded groups is more equal than in mixed opinion groups and that (2) participants with lower resources feel politically more efficacious after deliberation in like-minded than in mixed groups. Our results suggest that people with higher resources tend to be more active regardless of treatment. Nevertheless, we also find that among those with lower resources deliberation in like-minded groups generates a higher sense of equality than discussion in mixed opinion groups.     

Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?

In this paper, we analyze the role played by capital goods imports in the long-run growth of developing countries. We focus in the case of the Chinese economy in the last few decades. We find evidence that the ratio of imported to domestic capital goods, that is, the composition of investment, as well as the capital accumulation (both physical and human), was key determinants of the long-run growth rate of per capita GDP over the analyzed period. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the hypothesis that the link between trade openness and long-run growth operates mainly through imports. This finding supports some recent developments of Schumpeterian models of growth, and the very specific economic policy recommendations arising thereof. In short, these models state that, in the early stages of growth, government intervention to encourage an investment-based strategy, with emphasis on large investment efforts and the adoption of foreign technology, could be an appropriate strategy for development.     

Macroeconomic and financing determinants of out of pocket payments in health care: Evidence from selected OECD countries

In this paper, we examine the impact of macroeconomic, as well public and private health insurance financing (PHI) factors on out of pocket (OOP) healthcare expenditures, by using fixed/random effects and dynamic panel data methodology to a dataset of 26 EU and OECD countries for a period lasting from 1995 to 2013. The existing empirical literature has focused on testing the hypothesis that several macroeconomic and health financing determinants have an effect on OOP healthcare expenditures. Nevertheless, the related articles have not well tested the hypothesis concerning the potential impact of PHI financing on OOP spending. We find that public and PHI financing have a significant countervailing effect on OOP spending. Moreover, we show that unemployment rate has a significant positive impact on OOP expenditures. Sensitivity tests with variation of specifications and samples show that our findings are robust. We argue that policy-makers should give serious consideration to PHI institution; our results indicate that there is an inverse effect on OOP spending. We suggest that our examined countries have to provide financial risk protection to their citizens against OOP payments, rather than only attending health budgetary retrenchments in order to adjust public finances.     

Loneliness and the use of social media to follow celebrities: A moderating role of social presence

Because social media provide users with the possibility of an easy way to communicate with celebrities in society, it has become a more common practice to follow celebrities through social media. However, there exists few studies that examine how people’s individual characteristics are related to their celebrity-following behavior. In this regard, the current study examines whether celebrity followers’ loneliness is associated with the following behavior of their favorite celebrity. Data were collected through an online survey (N = 210). Primary findings suggest that celebrity followers’ loneliness is positively related to frequent visits of their favorite celebrity’s social media, greater social-interpersonal motive for following the celebrity, and greater enjoyment of learning about personal life stories of the celebrity. Social presence is found to be a significant moderator that can intensify more favorable parasocial relationship perceptions with the celebrity.     

Romantic relationships,college student alcohol use,and negative consequences of drinking

This study examined whether being in a romantic relationship is associated with undergraduates’ alcohol use and negative consequences of drinking. Alcohol use was operationalized to include amount and frequency of drinking, binge drinking, and drunkenness. Negative consequences included: having a hangover, missing a class, getting behind in school work, doing something that was later regretted, forgetting where the student was or what they did, having unplanned sex, and getting hurt or injured. Data came from an online survey distributed to Midwestern undergraduate students (N = 572), with analyses conducted separately for men and women. Results indicated that being in a committed relationship generally served as a protective factor against drunkenness, but did not reduce frequency of drinking or binge drinking. Whereas romantically committed men were only less likely to report doing something that was later regretted, women in romantic relationships were less likely to experience all negative consequences of drinking considered here.     

Modeling agricultural risk management policies – The implementation of the Income Stabilization Tool in Italy

This paper investigates the potential impact of the income stabilisation tool (IST), currently introduced in the European Common Agricultural Policy to reduce farmers’ income risks using Italian agriculture as case study. The paper extends the existing literature by investigating the effects of two implementation issues: level of aggregation of mutual funds (MF); definition of farmers’ contribution (i.e. premium) to MF. We use a simulation approach based on a FADN panel data set of 3421 farms over a period of 7 years to investigate effects on (i) farm-level income variability, (ii) the expected level and variability of indemnifications at the level of mutual funds and (iii) the distribution of net benefits from this policy instrument across the farm population. We find that the introduction of the IST would lead to a significant reduction of income variability in Italian agriculture. Our results support the establishment of a national mutual fund due to the high volatility of indemnification levels at more disaggregated (e.g. regional or sectoral) levels. In addition, our results propose that farmers’ contribution to mutual funds, i.e. premiums paid, should be modulated according to farm size as this reduces the inequality of the distribution of benefits of such tool within the farm population.     

India's demand for international reserve and monetary disequilibrium: Reserve adequacy under floating regime

The main aim of this study is to investigate India's demand for international reserve by focusing on the role of national monetary disequilibrium and to present new benchmarks for assessing the adequacy of international reserves. We assessed India's position in terms of reserve adequacy and found that India is well placed and has sufficient stock of international reserves to meet the minimum adequacy requirements. Also, the results reveal that the central bank is holding substantial excess reserves and the related opportunity cost (1.5% of GDP) appears to be quite considerable. Further, the estimates of reserve demand function suggest that scale of foreign trade, uncertainty and profitability considerations play significant role in determining India's long-term reserve demand policies. More importantly, validating the monetary approach to balance of payment, our results show that national monetary disequilibrium does play a crucial role in short-run reserve movements. An excess of money demand (supply) induces an inflow (outflow) of international reserves with an elasticity of 0.56 which also implies that Reserve Bank of India responds to correct the domestic money market disequilibrium; and did not just leave it completely on the mercy of reserve inflows.     

Economic burden of tuberculosis and its coping mechanism at the household level in Pakistan

Despite the availability of free medicines under the Directly Observed Treatment Short-course (DOTS) strategy, the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) still involves high costs that push people into poverty. This study aims to assess the resulting economic burden of TB and examine the coping mechanisms practiced at the household level in Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was conducted at TB centers by interviewing 269 patients. Statistical tests and binary logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and socio-economic factors. Results show that the incidence and intensity of CHE were higher for households in the lower income-quintile. Several coping strategies were practiced and varied among the different income-quintiles. The independent determinants of CHE were as follows: age >40 years, male-patient, location, earner-ratio, patient as the earner, caretaker visits, treatment delay, and co-morbidity. It is recommended that health policymakers develop post-MDGs TB-control strategies to ensure free TB-services with financial protection around the globe.     

FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players

How can countries successfully engage in global production networks? We provide a Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the impact of FDI on global production networks in Textiles, Chemicals, Electronics and Machinery, dividing the world economy in six regions (China, East Asia, Japan, EU28, the U.S. and the group of Emerging and Developing Economies). Interestingly for the policy maker, although the four sectors have contrasting production technologies, their Chinese exports and imports still follow a similar trend: East Asia and Japan are Chinese main intermediate suppliers while the US, Europe and the Emerging and Developing Economies play more the role of final markets. FDI inflows have benefitted China and we quantify by how much they have raised Chinese wages, GDP, national income and export competitiveness. By contrast, being an intermediate supplier or playing mostly the role of big final market in the network is not enough to succeed in your integration with China. The extent of the (positive or negative) effects is very much related to whether the structure of production (i.e., sectors’ weight in GDP) of the different economies is similar to (and therefore more easily crowded out by) Chinese booming sectors.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies

This paper examines the effects of inflation targeting (IT) on output growth over the “globalization years” of 1986-2004. Employing static panel data methods that control for traditional growth determinants, trade openness and financial globalization, the paper finds that the adoption of a fully fledged IT regime results in higher output income per capita for industrial and emerging economies. However, under dynamic model specifications, the estimated long-run output impact of inflation targeting for emerging market economies is found to be lower than in the case of static models. We argue that this might be due to the long lags until the full effects of greater credibility are felt in the real economy and the fact that emerging market economies adopted the regime much later than industrial economies.     

The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing

The Irish economy has recently endured a period of turbulence as a result of the collapse of the domestic property market bubble and the onset of the global financial crisis. There are two critical vulnerabilities in the Irish economy at present. The first is the potential for sluggish economic growth due to a slowdown in external demand, which impacts on the government's ability to meet budgetary targets. The second concern relates to the financial stability of the banking system given the escalating mortgage crisis. Our results show that Irish economic growth is highly sensitive to the performance of its trading partners and any international slowdown will hinder Ireland's growth prospects. The model used suggests that the appropriate policy response is to pursue further gains in competitiveness. We estimate the impact of an external slowdown on mortgage delinquency using a new dataset on the loan books of the commercial banking sector. The results suggest that a negative one standard deviation shock to US GDP growth leads to an increase of 1600 in the number of mortgages in arrears for at least 90 days. Arrears are driven by unemployment and negative equity in the model. We discuss policies to contain the mortgage crisis by improving these intermediate target variables.